Fantasy T maps

Essentially, digging up the streets of Brookline and Brighton is probably not in the cards, nor necessary to get to the 50% number.

A route would be something like:
  • Starting from Charles/MGH, dig up Storrow, dig a trench, then cover it over
  • At Kenmore dive under the GL for a deeper station before surfacing and reusing the GL-D alignment to Fenway
  • Dive into the main bored tunnel, hitting Coolidge Corner, Warren St, and Brighton Center (About 3 miles)
  • C&C/Capped Cut along Arsenal St to Watertown Sq and then the Watertown Branch Alignment where possible, Pleasant St where not (Another 2 miles or so)
  • Run in a shallow uncoverd cutting (Or elevated if you wanted to) along the rail alignment over the Charles and through the Chemistry
  • Dive into one more deep(ish) section under Waltham Station before resurfacing to follow the Fitchburg Line to Brandeis/Roberts
Or alternatively instead of going via the Fenway/Longwood, Coolidge Corner, and Brighton dig a subway under Comm Ave (Maybe bury this bit of the B while you're at it), then surface at West Station and continue elevated above the Pike to North Beacon St and then pick up the route from there. This could let you go all the way from Charles/MGH to Brandeis/Roberts with no major bored sections, but missing Brighton and Coolidge Corner makes it not as useful of a connection closer in.
Gotcha. This is roughly in line with what I thought, but I didn't know you did plan a short bored section. Using the (encroached) Watertown Branch and Pleasant St is an interesting idea: Main St (the 70 bus) technically serves more residents, but I imagine you might have been looking at TOD potential and ease of construction?

As for the route itself, I was surprised that reaching Brighton Center via Longwood (D) is not substantially more roundabout than via the 57 corridor. It does miss out on the Union Sq Allston area, but unless you do an even more circuitous route (cc @Riverside), you can't hit them all regardless. I personally feel Union Sq Allston may have greater cultural significance than Coolidge Corner, but this probably needs a deeper dive and/or someone more familiar with the area.

(@Riverside: Apologies for the number of times I've pinged you today, LOL.).

I've only used Linden Square as a terminal, given it's existing use as the route terminal for the 108 and 109 buses, its location close to edge of the former BERy streetcar network, as well as being the last stop for the 426 bus before going express to Boston. (BNRD will likely shift the 119's terminal to Linden, but at the cost of some parts of NW Revere losing bus service). I mostly use it as a decently located BERy terminal to terminate connecting surface routes at. Woodlawn itself currently doesn't have any outbound connections north of the 111.
This prompted me to take another look at ridership patterns of bus routes through Linden Square. Interestingly enough, most bus routes do show a small local maximum there. I don't see much stuff around that would draw heavy ridership -- 3-4 restaurants, Walgreens, Stop & Shop, an Amazon warehouse and other suburban stuff... That's about it. Not to mention the area isn't very pedestrian-friendly, either.

So where is the ridership at Linden coming from? My best guess at the moment is transfers between bus routes, as a "bus hub" connecting Malden (108), Everett (109), Cliftondale (426, 429), Northgate shopping center (119, 429) and Revere (119). I have to think these are transit-dependent riders, as most of these bus routes don't have great frequencies even pre-Covid. Such a hypothesis would imply the area mostly serve local demands and those within nearby regions, so whether it needs a rapid transit anchor may be questionable; Linden Sq also has two of its four quadrants blocked by cemeteries and marshes. Perhaps a Route 1 HRT terminating at Northgate shopping mall would be better?
108:
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109:
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119:
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426:
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429: (Note that "inbound" 429 is actually from Northgate to Lynn, which is counter-intuitive)
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Thoughts:
  • All routes seem to carry some traffic from Linden to Malden, Everett, Cliftondale/Saugus (426,429), and Revere (119). However, on the "inbound" 119 and 429, there are at least twice as many riders boarding at Northgate compared to at Linden. This seems to indicate Northgate is a more popular destination than Linden.
  • A small number of riders (29 daily) use the 119 and 429 between Northgate and Linden, possibly transferring to routes like 108 and 109, but that demand doesn't seem very significant.
  • Interestingly, while some riders (32 daily) use the 426 as an almost-nonstop express bus from Linden to Haymarket, far more (102) use it between Linden and Cliftondale/Lynn. This shows a good number of 426 riders use it for "short-distance" trips.
If the 426 runs express to Downtown from Linden, I have to wonder whether a hypothectical 426 would still need an express portion to make the jaunt from Linden Sq. to Woodlawn, if a Route 1 HRT line terminates only at Woodlawn. The next exit off the highway past Linden is not until Route 16, meaning one would end up with an insane situation where the hypothetical 426 bus would need to run express to downtown from Linden and parallel the entire Route 1 HRT line all the way to downtown. Such situation would only be rectifiable with extending the Route 1 rail line up to Linden Sq. to curtail the express buses back to the BERy terminal at Linden Sq.
The 426 is already slated to terminate at Wonderland all day in the Bus Network Redesign. In your scenario (HRT to Woodlawn), it wouldn't surprise me if the 426 still ends up terminating at Wonderland for the Blue Line connection instead. Or it can either take local roads to Woodlawn, or take Route 1 to terminate at an intermediate stop on the HRT line, such as Chelsea.

On my wildly unrealistic/impractical fantasy map, Linden Sq., is used as a route terminal for rapid transit (like) service along the Saugus Branch RR. Saugus has never been part of BERy's streetcar network, and as such hasn't really developed as a streetcar suburb the same way the rest of the BERy network (+ Lynn/Quincy/Waltham?) had. Just like the aformentioned viewpoint, I am very dubious about a need to extend rapid transit past Linden Sq., beyond the original BERy service area.

View attachment 50389
My first thought was that Saugus was probably not dense enough for rapid transit. But then I found that Saugus is actually similar in density to Needham and Newton Highlands, one of which has LRT service and the other is likely to get it in the future. The parts of the ROW on both ends, in Malden and West Lynn, are also moderately populous that make LRT intriguing.

So if a street-running LRT line through Saugus to Lynn is feasible, it might be worth a shot. The question is, can it co-exist with the existing rail trail?
 
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This prompted me to take another look at ridership patterns of bus routes through Linden Square. Interestingly enough, most bus routes do show a small local maximum there. I don't see much stuff around that would draw heavy ridership -- 3-4 restaurants, Walgreens, Stop & Shop, an Amazon warehouse and other suburban stuff... That's about it. Not to mention the area isn't very pedestrian-friendly, either.

So where is the ridership at Linden coming from? My best guess at the moment is transfers between bus routes, as a "bus hub" connecting Malden (108), Everett (109), Cliftondale (426, 429), Northgate shopping center (119, 429) and Revere (119). I have to think these are transit-dependent riders, as most of these bus routes don't have great frequencies even pre-Covid. Such a hypothesis would imply the area mostly serve local demands and those within nearby regions, so whether it needs a rapid transit anchor may be questionable; Linden Sq also has two of its four quadrants blocked by cemeteries and marshes. Perhaps a Route 1 HRT terminating at Northgate shopping mall would be better?

Thoughts:
  • All routes seem to carry some traffic from Linden to Malden, Everett, Cliftondale/Saugus (426,429), and Revere (119). However, on the "inbound" 119 and 429, there are at least twice as many riders boarding at Northgate compared to at Linden. This seems to indicate Northgate is a more popular destination than Linden.
  • A small number of riders (29 daily) use the 119 and 429 between Northgate and Linden, possibly transferring to routes like 108 and 109, but that demand doesn't seem very significant.
  • Interestingly, while some riders (32 daily) use the 426 as an almost-nonstop express bus from Linden to Haymarket, far more (102) use it between Linden and Cliftondale/Lynn. This shows a good number of 426 riders use it for "short-distance" trips.
The 426 is already slated to terminate at Wonderland all day in the Bus Network Redesign. In your scenario (HRT to Woodlawn), it wouldn't surprise me if the 426 still ends up terminating at Wonderland for the Blue Line connection instead. Or it can either take local roads to Woodlawn, or take Route 1 to terminate at an intermediate stop on the HRT line, such as Chelsea.

My first thought was that Saugus was probably not dense enough for rapid transit. But then I found that Saugus is actually similar in density to Needham and Newton Highlands, one of which has LRT service and the other is likely to get it in the future. The parts of the ROW on both ends, in Malden and West Lynn, are also moderately populous that make LRT intriguing.

So if a street-running LRT line through Saugus to Lynn is feasible, it might be worth a shot. The question is, can it co-exist with the existing rail trail?

The most negative change of the planned upcoming BNRD, would be travel times to downtown on the 426. BNRD will eliminate the 428 express bus, and the 426 being redirected to Wonderland would likely dramatically increase travel times to Downtown. With a massive gap between the Orange and Blue Lines on the northside, the 426 makes the trip to downtown smack down the middle of this giant radial HRT desert.

A trip from Cliftondale Square to Downtown at 8am on a weekday takes 36 minutes. To Wonderland, this trip takes 27 minutes for the 7:10 a.m. trip from Cliftondale.

The Blue Line runs every 5 - 11 minutes during the week, and a trip from Wonderland to Government Center takes about 18 minutes. Combined, the total time from Cliftondale Square to Downtown via Wonderland on the Blue Line would take: 27 min bus ride + 6 minute wait time + 18 mins on Blue = 51 minutes. That is 1.4-1.5x as long as it is currently on the 426's express portion to downtown. I'd have to imagine such lengthening of commuter's travel times will probably be quite unpopular, as riders would now need to add anywhere from an extra 30 to 70 minutes for a round trip commute (x2). An earlier post already discussed cutting back the 450 to Wonderland would have longer travel times, and may not be popular.

When I generated fantasy timetables for the absurd mainline ROW HRT concept, a hypothetical HRT trip from Linden Sq. to Downtown via the Saugus Branch RR would be about 24 minutes. A HRT line along Route 1 to Linden would probably be even faster on a more direct alignment. With a bus ride from Cliftondale to Linden taking about 6 minutes today, that would give: 6 min bus trip from Cliftondale to Linden + ~ 5 min transfer + 23 min on HRT = 34 min total.

This means the only way to maintain today's travel times downtown for the 426 express bus to downtown, is to bring HRT all the way to Linden Sq. in Malden. A HRT terminal at Linden Sq., would be the only way to cut back the express buses from downtown to the BERy terminal, without drastically lengthening commutes for those that depend on the express buses today.

The historical and current continued presence of the 428 express bus suggests that some commuters probably continue to rely upon the route today, otherwise, the 428 would have been cut back a while ago (say, back in the 2012 bus route cutbacks, or the 2019 minor route adjustments, or during COVID; yet the route was restored post-pandemic). Today, 2 express buses make the jaunt from Linden Sq., to Downtown, and some riders from Linden Sq., also depend on these express buses as well.
 

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