MBTA Commuter Rail (Operations, Keolis, & Short Term)

Diesel is not going the "run out". What the hell kind of concern-trolling nonsense is that??? :rolleyes:

There's a reason why the diesel prices have shot up. And that's with Trump using up a third of the Reserve. It's at it's lowest level ever.

I do think the last day or two there was some movement in shipments in the Strait. But... Winter is coming.
 
There's a reason why the diesel prices have shot up. And that's with Trump using up a third of the Reserve. It's at it's lowest level ever.

I do think the last day or two there was some movement in shipments in the Strait. But... Winter is coming.
Yeah...demand is temporarily exceeding supply, and the market does what it does when that happens. That is not the same as "run out".

If you're going to allege it's about to "run out", you better have some cold hard facts to cite in favor of that instead of your usual vibes hottake horeshit. You're already right-on-cue doing the week-later threadbump after running and hiding when first being challenged on it.🧌
 
Yeah...demand is temporarily exceeding supply, and the market does what it does when that happens. That is not the same as "run out".

How about the Orange One striking a deal with Pooty Poot?


This is the kind of thing you do when there's a severe shortage.

For a while there, European Refiners were getting nothing and US refiners exporting large chunks of what they had to there is a big part of why prices spiked.
 
How about the Orange One striking a deal with Pooty Poot?


This is the kind of thing you do when there's a severe shortage.

For a while there, European Refiners were getting nothing and US refiners exporting large chunks of what they had to there is a big part of why prices spiked.
Russia severely lacks the internal capacity (thanks to their own war) to refine enough to export without creating crippling domestic shortages for themselves. And the Administration damn well knows that (whether the guy in charge retains the faculties to realize it or not before he tweets). It's a desperate ploy to blow some smoke up the market's butt before the midterms, not an action one would take for an actual looming supply shortage. Because Russia does not have the supply to export.

I'll ask again: do you have any FACTS to support your purely vibes-based assertion that the country is going to run out of diesel? Or shall we see you again in 10 days when you work back up the courage to necropost the same thing once more?
 
How about the Orange One striking a deal with Pooty Poot?


This is the kind of thing you do when there's a severe shortage.

For a while there, European Refiners were getting nothing and US refiners exporting large chunks of what they had to there is a big part of why prices spiked.
Russia has been under a diesel export ban for months at this point, and this deal only creates more incentives for Ukraine to strike Russian export terminals and refineries, especially as the war continues to dive deeper into a civilian infrastructure slugging match. I think it's pretty dubious how much beyond the initial commitment Russia will actually be able to supply, and even if everything comes to pass we're talking about a single digit number of days for US daily consumption.
There's a reason why the diesel prices have shot up. And that's with Trump using up a third of the Reserve. It's at it's lowest level ever.
So prices will continue to rise until supply matches demand. Unless the government tries to institute price controls or every diesel refinery in America suddenly explodes, there will continue to be diesel for those who can pay for it.
 
How about the Orange One striking a deal with Pooty Poot?

This is the kind of thing you do when there's a severe shortage.

I don't think AB is a place for politics - at least on the general threads and forums, but, our current President striking a deal with Russia, our once top 3 three global adversary, that adversely effects our (once) ally who is fighting for their existence isn't an example of desperation, but, business as usual.
 
How quickly will the various singles exit the property? They still have a ton of them squirreled away around New England.
 
How quickly will the various singles exit the property? They still have a ton of them squirreled away around New England.
They're slowly selling the ones that have been languishing in-storage since pre-COVID. 6 200-series trailers and 2 1600-series cab cars are currently listed for-sale, and the number of for-sale units has held steady for awhile. It's mostly enticing tourist railroads to pick up some of the long-stored bodies for next-to-nothing, which is why the process has gone slow as most of these carriers are only looking for a couple units at a time. They'll probably announce a scrapping contract sometime within the new year when it comes time to start mowing down the freshly-retired ranks, as they definitely don't have enough storage spots to keep most of the rosters onsite long-term. Schnitzer Steel at Everett Terminal has already chowed down 18 Bombardier cab cars in the last two years, so they would likely be favored for it. The secondhand market is also nonexistent for other commuter rail carriers as the market is going to be flooded with better-condition single-level retirements from NJ Transit, Metro-North, and ConnDOT for the next decade and nobody on the East Coast has any identified need for more cheap expansion bodies (SEPTA just just bought a bunch of secondhand Montreal push-pull coaches, so they're out). Western U.S. would also have no interest, as they already have a flush aftermarket of 8-inch boarding used cars to choose from. And Amtrak's new cars are already being delivered, so they're now getting close enough that they can tough out the rest of their car shortage rather than risk customer complaints renting some very worn out commuter coaches.

If anything currently in-service and not converted to work/specialty cars sticks around in-storage longer, it's likely to be the Pullman 200-series since those are generally agreed to be in relative better condition than the shot-to-hell Bombardiers and non-rehabbed MBB's and they retain the most resale value for continuing to incrementally sell off to tourist carriers.
 
Notes on the March 24 schedules:
  • Across the system, train numbers have changed. Saturday and Sunday trains now have the same numbers (finally!). Weekend trains are now generally 5YXX (where Y is the first digit of weekday trains) and weekday short turns are now 1YXX.
    • Y is counterclockwise: [0] for Rockport, 1 for Newburport, 2 for Haverhill, 3 for Lowell, 4 for Fitchburg, 5 for Worcester, 6 for Needham, 7 for Franklin, 8 for Providence, 9 for Stoughton.
    • Foxboro is 16xx and 66xx. Kingston and Greenbush are 10xx and 60xx (Kingston below 1050, Greenbush above). Fall River is 19xx/69xx, New Bedford is 20xx/70xx
It looks like all trains will be 4 digits starting with the October 26 schedules:
  • Rockport trains are 10xx weekdays and 15xx weekends. Newburyport trains are 11xx weekdays and 16xx weekends. Beverly trains are 12xx.
  • Haverhill trains are 20xx weekdays and 25xx weekends. Reading trains are 23xx.
  • Lowell trains are 30xx weekdays and 35xx weekends.
  • Wachusett trains are 40xx weekdays and 45xx weekends. Littleton trains are 43xx.
  • Worcester trains are 50xx weekdays and 55xx weekends. Framingham trains are 53xx.
  • Providence and Wickford trains are 60xx weekdays and 65xx weekends. Stoughton trains are 63xx.
  • Needham trains are 64xx weekdays and 68xx weekends.
  • Franklin/Foxboro doesn't have the new schedule posted yet, but from the Fairmount Line schedule it appears that Forge Park trains are 70xx weekdays and 75xx weekends, and Foxboro trains are 71xx.
  • Fairmount Line trains are 72xx weekdays and 77xx weekends (except for Franklin/Foxboro through trains)
  • New Bedford trains are 80xx weekdays and 85xx weekends; Fall River is 81xx/86xx. Shuttles are numbered in the higher half of each range.
  • Kingston trains are 83xx weekdays and 88xx weekends.
  • Greenbush trains are 84xx weekdays and 89xx weekends.
Because all the Amtrak trains in MBTA territory are 2 or 3 digits, this should eliminate any possible repeated numbers. Interestingly, there is nothing in the 9xxx series. Perhaps that is reserved for special trains.

A few schedule changes:
  • Some lines get a few minutes of padding for the winter, as per usual.
  • The last inbound weekday Fitchburg Line train is moved half an hour earlier and only makes limited stops. The 9 pm outbound is moved up to 830 to turn into that train, but still makes all stops.
  • Haverhill gains a weekday evening outbound train; departures go from 730-940-1140 to 730-845-1025-1140
  • The last weekday inbound Rockport train becomes a Beverly short turn, meaning that the last inbound train from Rockport becomes 855pm. The current outbounds are 950pm Newburyport - 1050 pm Rockport - 1145pm Rockport - 1155pm Newburyport; that becomes 940 Beverly - 1020 Newburyport - 1110 Rockport - 1155 Newburyport.
  • The 1150pm weekend outbound to Rockport is moved to 1120pm. An 1150pm train to Newburyport is added.
  • Four midday and two evening outbound Providence/Stoughton trains cease stopping at Hyde Park, leaving only four evening trains on weekdays. One midday Readville stop is dropped, again leaving only four evening outbounds stopping. Inbound and weekend service at those stations does not change.
 
It looks like all trains will be 4 digits starting with the October 26 schedules:
  • Rockport trains are 10xx weekdays and 15xx weekends. Newburyport trains are 11xx weekdays and 16xx weekends. Beverly trains are 12xx.
  • Haverhill trains are 20xx weekdays and 25xx weekends. Reading trains are 23xx.
  • Lowell trains are 30xx weekdays and 35xx weekends.
  • Wachusett trains are 40xx weekdays and 45xx weekends. Littleton trains are 43xx.
  • Worcester trains are 50xx weekdays and 55xx weekends. Framingham trains are 53xx.
  • Providence and Wickford trains are 60xx weekdays and 65xx weekends. Stoughton trains are 63xx.
  • Needham trains are 64xx weekdays and 68xx weekends.
  • Franklin/Foxboro doesn't have the new schedule posted yet, but from the Fairmount Line schedule it appears that Forge Park trains are 70xx weekdays and 75xx weekends, and Foxboro trains are 71xx.
  • Fairmount Line trains are 72xx weekdays and 77xx weekends (except for Franklin/Foxboro through trains)
  • New Bedford trains are 80xx weekdays and 85xx weekends; Fall River is 81xx/86xx. Shuttles are numbered in the higher half of each range.
  • Kingston trains are 83xx weekdays and 88xx weekends.
  • Greenbush trains are 84xx weekdays and 89xx weekends.
Because all the Amtrak trains in MBTA territory are 2 or 3 digits, this should eliminate any possible repeated numbers. Interestingly, there is nothing in the 9xxx series. Perhaps that is reserved for special trains.

A few schedule changes:
  • Some lines get a few minutes of padding for the winter, as per usual.
  • The last inbound weekday Fitchburg Line train is moved half an hour earlier and only makes limited stops. The 9 pm outbound is moved up to 830 to turn into that train, but still makes all stops.
  • Haverhill gains a weekday evening outbound train; departures go from 730-940-1140 to 730-845-1025-1140
  • The last weekday inbound Rockport train becomes a Beverly short turn, meaning that the last inbound train from Rockport becomes 855pm. The current outbounds are 950pm Newburyport - 1050 pm Rockport - 1145pm Rockport - 1155pm Newburyport; that becomes 940 Beverly - 1020 Newburyport - 1110 Rockport - 1155 Newburyport.
  • The 1150pm weekend outbound to Rockport is moved to 1120pm. An 1150pm train to Newburyport is added.
  • Four midday and two evening outbound Providence/Stoughton trains cease stopping at Hyde Park, leaving only four evening trains on weekdays. One midday Readville stop is dropped, again leaving only four evening outbounds stopping. Inbound and weekend service at those stations does not change.
Amtrak Acela trains are 4 digits 2xxx -- but as long as the 2xxx MBTA trains are from North Station only that is not a conflict.
 
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What would a catenary construction program look like for the T? Would it be opportunistic or would the planning and environmental review force it to be systematic?
 
Ba

Battery/catenary locomotives seems like a much more appropriate step for the T than BEMU IMO
It's much worse. You get no schedule improvements with battery-electric push-pull vs. diesel push-pull, while BEMU's lop 20-22% off schedule lengths because of the much faster starts/stops. You can forget about trip time savings driving ridership, and forget about schedules having the elasticity to swallow more infill stops without worsening travel times. It's a really shitty proposition cost-per-rider, because the number of riders isn't going to increase with them. Ridership will increase with a switch to BEMU's even if you did nothing else ops-different with the system. The specific BEMU's they leased may be a ripoff on raw costs, but they're definitely going to accomplish the agency's revenue goals the way they're being deployed. You can't say the same for the battery locos running the same-old Providence Line on the same-old schedules.
 
You get no schedule improvements with battery-electric push-pull vs. diesel push-pull, while BEMU's lop 20-22% off schedule lengths because of the much faster starts/stops.
This seems surprising from an intuitive perspective. I obviously haven't looked into it in any detail, but I would have guessed that the electric locomotive would be able to get some degree of performance increase, even if not to the level of the full (B)EMU set.

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Is the limiting factor that the locomotive only can put so much power/tractive effort down on that footprint without slipping and existing diesel-electric locomotives already max that out throughout the acceleration phase of motion?
 
It's much worse. You get no schedule improvements with battery-electric push-pull vs. diesel push-pull, while BEMU's lop 20-22% off schedule lengths because of the much faster starts/stops. You can forget about trip time savings driving ridership, and forget about schedules having the elasticity to swallow more infill stops without worsening travel times. It's a really shitty proposition cost-per-rider, because the number of riders isn't going to increase with them. Ridership will increase with a switch to BEMU's even if you did nothing else ops-different with the system. The specific BEMU's they leased may be a ripoff on raw costs, but they're definitely going to accomplish the agency's revenue goals the way they're being deployed. You can't say the same for the battery locos running the same-old Providence Line on the same-old schedules.
I understand the acceleration benefits of BEMU, but looking at the procurement costs for Fairmount, don’t you think the cost benefit weighs towards the locos? At least if you look at the sole benefit of limiting emissions.
 
This seems surprising from an intuitive perspective. I obviously haven't looked into it in any detail, but I would have guessed that the electric locomotive would be able to get some degree of performance increase, even if not to the level of the full (B)EMU set.

------

Is the limiting factor that the locomotive only can put so much power/tractive effort down on that footprint without slipping and existing diesel-electric locomotives already max that out throughout the acceleration phase of motion?
Electric push-pull can eke out about a 5% acceleration advantage over diesel push-pull, which isn't much in the grand scheme of things. The extra battery weight and finite cap on tractive effort because the power is being drawn from the limited batteries instead of the more-or-less unlimited overhead (yes...on the Siemens locos the battery is always powering the train even when it's charging on-wire) also imposes a slight penalty on that 5% for the battery-electrics. You might get 2 or 3% improvement over diesel, maybe moreso over the lower-horsepower F40's and GP40's than the zippier HSP-46's...but the degree is not even enough to dent the low-platform dwell padding in the Providence schedule so the practical result is that the schedules won't be refactored at all.

I understand the acceleration benefits of BEMU, but looking at the procurement costs for Fairmount, don’t you think the cost benefit weighs towards the locos? At least if you look at the sole benefit of limiting emissions.
No. If you were looking solely at limiting emissions, you could run electric push-pull on the already wired Providence Line and spend one-third to one-fourth as much per new unit as they're spending on the battery locos. And figure out a way to wire up Stoughton and the FRIP track in Rhode Island with the savings so you can expand that fleet. Or wire up Fairmount for that matter. Hell...Amtrak is going to have spare Sprinters to lease out for way cheaper than buying new in as little as 2 years. The T chose this boondoggle because it absolutely psyched itself out believing that bespoke bleeding-edge technology was "progress" and that "best-practices" were icky, especially when they required wire-ups. It can't be overstated how delusional this purchase is.
 
We have slides for the 10 battery + 10 diesel locomotive order, posted online for the MBTA Audit and Finance Subcommittee meeting tomorrow (October 15th):

Unsurprisingly, it's going to Siemens, for $310.4 million, with $63.4 million in other costs.

Edit: fixed link
Straight-diesel Chargers are averaging $7.5M each in recent/ongoing orders, while Metro-North's price for the B+AC variant was $23.5M per.

($7.5M x 10 straight diesels) + ($23.5M x 10 battery electrics) = $310M


Looks like we're probably paying exactly the (bad!) MNRR rate. We'll be able to confirm that when MARC votes in their B+AC units on this joint order, since they're only ordering batteries and no diesels.


And BTW...holy soft costs!
1792098491293.png

How in the hell does a mass-market diesel in constant production for 10 years and the new variant that's already been in-design for a couple years with Metro-North bearing the brunt of the up-front risk end up chewing up this much cash in pure project management overhead??? This should be a set-it-and-forget-it routine procurement. They better not be specs-tinkering on top of it all. 🤮
 
There's a >1 year long design review period, which does suggest some specs-tinkering:
1792102672112.png

Though Siemens does have a massive backlog of Amtrak orders to fulfill, so production might just be delayed until then regardless.
 

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