Green Line extension Newton to Needham

[JeffDowntown]

Worth noting that Lynn has a huge amount of political influence with the MBTA right now and has done bupkus with it to get BLX built. The Mayor is fixated on ferries.

Oversimplification of the issue. The fixation on ferries was because the MBTA was quoting 2030 for reopening the only commuter rail station in Lynn. The city of 100,000 people needed some immediate alternative to get into Boston.

And everyone on the North Shore knows BLX is not going to happen so long as Ron Marino (from Quincy where "we got our Red Line, screw you up north" is the attitude) sits in the Speaker chair.

 

[Equilibria]

Oversimplification of the issue. The fixation on ferries was because the MBTA was quoting 2030 for reopening the only commuter rail station in Lynn. The city of 100,000 people needed some alternative to get into Boston.

And everyone on the North Shore knows BLX is not going to happen so long as Ron Marino (from Quincy where "we got our Red Line, screw you up north" is the attitude) sits in the Speaker chair.

Not an issue for this thread, but the ferries were the focus before the CR station platform issue (which fortunately is no longer taking until 2030).

 

[JeffDowntown]

Not an issue for this thread, but the ferries were the focus before the CR station platform issue (which fortunately is no longer taking until 2030).

Ferries (since they happened) obviously are more likely than BLX.

 

[HenryAlan]

Today, South Station to Needham Heights takes 45 minutes. South Station to Riverside (similar in length to Needham) takes 52 minutes, and eliminating slow zones on the D will make it even faster. Comparable enough to me given the big differences in headways (Needham Line runs once every hour).

Needham Heights might compare well with Riverside, but the other Needham stops do have shorter rides on the existing route, but will definitely see longer rides on a GLX, as the direction and distance scenario reverses. I don't know how many board at the other Needhams, and it doesn't in my mind negate the need for RT conversion, but it's certainly another factor to consider.

 

[Equilibria]

Needham Heights might compare well with Riverside, but the other Needham stops do have shorter rides on the existing route, but will definitely see longer rides on a GLX, as the direction and distance scenario reverses. I don't know how many board at the other Needhams, and it doesn't in my mind negate the need for RT conversion, but it's certainly another factor to consider.

Yeah, but you also need to consider that South Station isn't necessarily the destination. Lots of Riverside riders are going to Longwood, Copley, etc.

Depending on how Needham handles TDM, you could also see way more reverse commuting on the Needham branch than on the Riverside branch. Other than Newton-Wellesley Hospital, there aren't a lot of big employers around Riverside, whereas the Needham branch would be planned in concert with circulators to the whole business park.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Yeah, but you also need to consider that South Station isn't necessarily the destination. Lots of Riverside riders are going to Longwood, Copley, etc.

Depending on how Needham handles TDM, you could also see way more reverse commuting on the Needham branch than on the Riverside branch. Other than Newton-Wellesley Hospital, there aren't a lot of big employers around Riverside, whereas the Needham branch would be planned in concert with circulators to the whole business park.

Right. Trip pairs between intermediate stops will be much higher with GLX than they are with Commuter Rail, as there's very little commute affinity between Needham and the outer neighborhoods of Boston generating interzone trips. Most people are parking their butts firmly in seats from Needham to Back Bay/South Station, then transferring to rapid transit. And the natural general travel and auto travel orientation in Needham is along the unbroken density via Newton, not crossing the big Cutler Park dead zone or going to Dedham (where there's a pronounced bus desert). So while it matters a little bit that the ride will be a bit slower to the Downtown transfers (though hopefully Green Line Transformation ameliorates a majority of that), there's going to be tons more intermediate-to-intermediate trips and reverse-commutes to new Newton/Needham-based jobs offsetting that. Plus much greater frequencies. As noted, the only way to increase CR frequencies is to start shearing off runs to terminate at a Forest Hills forced transfer, and then shear off some more of the current slate of thru trains when increasing NEC traffic starts squeezing the slots dry. Well, that inconveniences the hell out of Needham by making the trip to the Downtown transfers much, much longer...to the point where the multi-seat end result probably does take longer than the GLX trip. Again...it's not just transit enhancement that's a reason for doing the rapid transit projects, it's avoiding looming transit loss and a future of total non-improvement on the current mode.

 

[DAVE]

If only we could have rails AND trails.

I don’t mean right up against each other. I mean creating new ROWs for one or the other so both can exist independently.

The two things shouldn’t be competing or at odds with each other.

we need to stop pitting women against eachother!

 

[ant8904]

While I'm certainly glad that OLX/GLX may happen even sooner than I thought, could this be an issue with political justice for Lynn? BLX to Lynn really should have happened by now, especially after they were held off by RLX to Alewife, then GLX, then Red-Blue (which will at least help Lynn directly in the future). I'm sure locals and politicians won't be happy if funding and priority get diverted away from Lynn again, this time in favor of West Roxbury and Needham.

At this point, we should be doing projects in parallel rather than one-project-at-a-time with 1 station or 5 station extension it all take a decade each.

And everyone on the North Shore knows BLX is not going to happen so long as Ron Marino (from Quincy where "we got our Red Line, screw you up north" is the attitude) sits in the Speaker chair.

Given the state of the Red Line to his city, he doesn't care about the Red Line either.

Is this project even on the horizon?

This guy got a point. Why are we talking about this? I look back to the past pages an arguably the development that trigged this discussion is that report... but that was still months ago. The post that seem to trigger all of this isn't exactly bringing new news.

If we're still stuck at one-project-at-a-time and each project taking up the decade no matter the size, then we're speculating on projects that won't start until 2040s at best. And that's assuming there's appetite for transit projects that are not busses. If anyone listen to the currently most recent podcast with Tibbits-Nutt, then Red Blue we might have to fight through her before getting to the real fight of getting federal funding. Pessimistically (which I do hope I'm wrong, I also get the impress Tibbits-Nutt does want to do good by offering quality transit), we might only get to see busses and slow zone fixes under this administration - so basically getting us back to situation when the GM were Grabauskas where we all used to be perplexed the only time the MBTA seem to go on a limb for is busses - but at least the rail were in a better state (if perhaps only by inertia than different practices).

Not to mean to put a negative spin of bus improvements and slow zone fixing. But, it does mean by the end of 2024 (assuming the repairs goes well), we're mostly getting back to wants and hopes of 2009 (well with GLX existing now, tbf).

 

[bigeman312]

At this point, we should be doing projects in parallel rather than one-project-at-a-time with 1 station or 5 station extension it all take a decade each.


Given the state of the Red Line to his city, he doesn't care about the Red Line either.


This guy got a point. Why are we talking about this? I look back to the past pages an arguably the development that trigged this discussion is that report... but that was still months ago. The post that seem to trigger all of this isn't exactly bringing new news.

If we're still stuck at one-project-at-a-time and each project taking up the decade no matter the size, then we're speculating on projects that won't start until 2040s at best. And that's assuming there's appetite for transit projects that are not busses. If anyone listen to the currently most recent podcast with Tibbits-Nutt, then Red Blue we might have to fight through her before getting to the real fight of getting federal funding. Pessimistically (which I do hope I'm wrong, I also get the impress Tibbits-Nutt does want to do good by offering quality transit), we might only get to see busses and slow zone fixes under this administration - so basically getting us back to situation when the GM were Grabauskas where we all used to be perplexed the only time the MBTA seem to go on a limb for is busses - but at least the rail were in a better state (if perhaps only by inertia than different practices).

Not to mean to put a negative spin of bus improvements and slow zone fixing. But, it does mean by the end of 2024 (assuming the repairs goes well), we're mostly getting back to wants and hopes of 2009 (well with GLX existing now, tbf).

I think this is accurate and not necessarily pessimistic. The situation has been dire, but we appear to have turned a corner. The T has offered worse service in 2023 than any year in generations. Without a colossal shift in funding or a major systemic change, we are looking at 1.5 years of all hands on deck for state of good repair, early bus network redesign implementation, and some other bus improvements, like BRT expansion and SLX.

If the Eng administration continues to deliver, the best case scenario is that in spring of 2025 we’re seeing ridership approach 2019 levels with the best headways, speed, rolling stock, and state-of-repair in generations. I’d take that in a heartbeat.

If that’s achieved, then we’d see more of an appetite for expansion going forward, ideally without any pauses for the indefinite future. I’d love a world where starting in 2025, we are completing expansion project after expansion project on a rolling basis. In an ideal world, we’d eventually get to a point where it looked something like:

• Blue Line to Charles/MGH: construction is in full-swing an opening month has been announced.
• Blue Line to Lynn: land acquisition, detailed design, awaiting regulatory approvals.
• Orange Line to Roslindale: environmental reviews complete, securing funding, preliminary design.
• Green Line to Hyde Square: conceptualization, public engagement, feasibility studies.

98th percentile scenario, that’s where we are in 2030.

90th percentile scenario probably looks something more like:

• Blue Line to Charles/MGH: final design, contractor bidding/selection, and pre-construction is complete and is now fully under construction.
• Blue Line to Lynn: environmental reviews complete, securing funding, preliminary design.

 

[jklo]

This guy got a point. Why are we talking about this?

If we only talked about projects that were theoretically going to happen reasonably soon... there wouldn't be much to talk about.

 

[TheRatmeister]

This guy got a point. Why are we talking about this? I look back to the past pages an arguably the development that trigged this discussion is that report... but that was still months ago. The post that seem to trigger all of this isn't exactly bringing new news.

Because when people stop talking about it, it moves from a future project to a never project.

 

[FK4]

Right. Trip pairs between intermediate stops will be much higher with GLX than they are with Commuter Rail, as there's very little commute affinity between Needham and the outer neighborhoods of Boston generating interzone trips. Most people are parking their butts firmly in seats from Needham to Back Bay/South Station, then transferring to rapid transit. And the natural general travel and auto travel orientation in Needham is along the unbroken density via Newton, not crossing the big Cutler Park dead zone or going to Dedham (where there's a pronounced bus desert). So while it matters a little bit that the ride will be a bit slower to the Downtown transfers (though hopefully Green Line Transformation ameliorates a majority of that), there's going to be tons more intermediate-to-intermediate trips and reverse-commutes to new Newton/Needham-based jobs offsetting that. Plus much greater frequencies. As noted, the only way to increase CR frequencies is to start shearing off runs to terminate at a Forest Hills forced transfer, and then shear off some more of the current slate of thru trains when increasing NEC traffic starts squeezing the slots dry. Well, that inconveniences the hell out of Needham by making the trip to the Downtown transfers much, much longer...to the point where the multi-seat end result probably does take longer than the GLX trip. Again...it's not just transit enhancement that's a reason for doing the rapid transit projects, it's avoiding looming transit loss and a future of total non-improvement on the current mode.

That’s exactly what I said a few posts ago. Needham is much more connected to Newton/Brookline/Green Line land than Dedham or W Rox. And more and more so over the last few years.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Why are we talking about this?

1. The T is studying Regional Rail frequencies across the system.
2. Healey's transpo appointees are in support of Regional Rail, or at least starting it off.
3. If starting it off, Providence/Stoughton would be in the first phase of lines to get the EMU's and frequencies.
4. Providence/Stoughton Regional Rail frequencies exclude Needham thru slots from participating in Regional Rail. It's capped at the current schedule forever, and may indeed see future service reductions when Amtrak traffic increases.
5. The only solution the Rail Vision had for giving the Needham Line Regional Rail frequencies was to convert it into a shuttle with forced transfer at Forest Hills. Where it would get :15 service, but everyone would have to transfer to the Orange Line. Something the neighborhoods along the route were polled on, and rejected vehemently over the loss of the one-seat to Downtown.
6. The T acknowledged in its Rail Vision study that this was a pickle that might force rapid transit conversion on the table, though they stopped short of recommending that (the forced FH transfer is still technically their rec from lack of updates after the public comment period).
7. TransitMatters released a report in late August strongly recommending the rapid transit conversion as part of its Regional Rail concept advocacy.
8. ^Hence^, it's current events we're just now getting around to talking about on the board.
9. There's study results from a few years ago showing what robust jobs and ridership the GLX portion to Needham Junction would serve, and advocacy in Newton and Needham to make it a sought-after build.
10. ^Hence^, the discussion is juxtaposing that studied growth with the urgency of the NEC pinch. With the NEC pinch being the catalyst for elevating the project on the priority pile and giving it nearer-term momentum.

Why shouldn't we be talking about all this?

 

[ant8904]

If we only talked about projects that were theoretically going to happen reasonably soon... there wouldn't be much to talk about.

^Hence^, it's current events we're just now getting around to talking about on the board.

To clarify what I meant, though especially with the use of the quote, I can see it can be reasonably interpreted to not bother talking about any projects beyond an X years horizon. That line is meant more that how TransitMatter report came out in August, which is not too long ago, but usually the past 2 pages of discussion would have usually happened in August instead of months later and particularly only after a certain poster and that person's pattern of posting.

Because when people stop talking about it, it moves from a future project to a never project.

Also, while this may sound like a double down, the chatter that goes on has greatly informative and while I stick around, but I don't think we really move the needle or not on projects. This is not to say we shouldn't talk about it, just that if part of thinking that the act of talking about it here affects projects. But even though the flap of a butterfly may lead to a tornado, may I dare say how different we are from say - if we talk about the Patriots in the bar and our discussions affects the outcomes of the team.

TBF, I would agree we affects a bit more than a sports fan. It's not quite 0 affect, I know some here do do work in positions that affect transit operations/policies though despite none of us are in positions of power (probably). And some here do go meetings, donate to groups like TransitMatters, and do other acts of advocacy, but I view it's those actions are the real actions that move the needle. Us talking about it or not mostly doesn't affect things.