State officials going full bore to boost 2010 Census tally
In recent years, the notion that the Massachusetts population was slipping bruised local egos and triggered bouts of civic and political hand-wringing: Was Boston no longer the hub of the universe? Had the region become too complacent to attract newcomers, too expensive to keep them? Could the state actually end up losing another member of Congress?
Mayor Thomas M. Menino and state politicians are hoping to prove the latter, as they launch a multipronged effort to boost the ranks responding to the 2010 Census - vital numbers that determine how many seats Massachusetts has in Congress and how much money the state collects from many federal programs.
"We're in serious jeopardy of losing one representative, if not two in the House," said Holly St. Clair, manager of the metro data center for the Metropolitan Area Planning Council. "It's not just about how slow we're growing. It's about how fast other parts of the nation are growing."
For years, Massachusetts population specialists and politicians have contended that the census was failing to count many state residents, especially those living in group quarters, such as the state's many college dormitories. As the 2010 Census approaches, concern is growing so pitched that the Legislature tapped researchers at the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute to conduct their own population estimates, starting with an up-to-date headcount of students, prisoners, the homeless, and others living in group settings.
To produce a count, the researchers contacted every college and university in Massachusetts to count dormitory dwellers, and they itemized the number of people living in all prisons, military installations, convents, nursing homes, and shelters across Massachusetts. The result: A new tally of 234,556 people in group housing - 8 percent more than the census is expected to estimate for 2007. Two-thirds of those newly identified are in the city of Boston.
The city and state hope to use the preliminary data to persuade the Census Bureau to boost its full population estimates, due out this week.
The effort isn't cheap: After spending $700,000 over the past two years, the Legislature is expected to devote $800,000 in the upcoming budget to the census effort.
Secretary of State William F. Galvin said the expense is more than worth it, considering the potential millions of dollars that could be lost with inaccurate counts. So much federal money is allocated based on population that Massachusetts officials estimate each person reported in the 2000 Census was worth $1,621.52. Stagnant population counts cost Massachusetts a congressional seat after the 1980 Census and again after the 1990 count.
In 2000, Galvin added, "We maintained our congressional delegation for the first time in 30 years. I don't know if I can pull a rabbit out of the hat again." The city has also launched its own census effort through the Boston Redevelopment Authority, which handles demographic information for the city.
"It's too important to us to lose numbers and also federal funds, and we could lose a congressman," Menino said. "We're going to work on that with them from the beginning, not the end. We want to be proactive. We've had to react."
For two years running, Boston officials challenged dispiriting population counts that estimated people were leaving Boston year by year. Menino defended Boston as a city on the rise and asserted that the Census Bureau's methodology was flawed - undercounting immigrants, residents of public housing, and students who live in dormitories.
The Census Bureau, which typically adjusts population estimates when challenged, revised its numbers by about 30,000 people one year, 5,000 the next. But that still put Boston's 2006 estimate only at 595,698 people - barely a blip above the 2000 Census count of 589,141 six years earlier.
However, the revised estimate still didn't take into account the new housing - including 8,400 dormitory rooms - that has been built in the city since the 2000 Census. To get the census to include all those units, the city had to provide the bureau with a full accounting of the number of group housing units - including all city dormitories, homeless shelters, prison cells, and nursing homes, said Alvaro Lima, the BRA's research director. Add in all those rooms and the city now believes the population reached at least 616,535.
Unlike the census, in which people are surveyed and counted, the annual population estimates are a mostly statistical exercise - updating the last census counts to reflect new births, deaths, and migration in and out of a state, along with the number of building permits, typical occupancy rates, and typical housing demolition rates.
Group living quarters are not adjusted between 10-year census counts unless the city or state reports the changes. But the yearly estimates are important because they set the stage for the 2010 count and provide an annual basis for distributing federal funds - not to mention its role marketing data that help companies decide where to locate. St. Clair pointed to problems that mounted with each estimate between the 1990 and 2000 Census. By the end of the decade, the Massachusetts population was undercounted by 700,000 people.
Between September and February, the BRA also conducted a massive mapping project to identify every parcel in the city that should get a 2010 Census form.
"It was very ambitious," said Lima, "and very tiring." Lima and a staff of seven at the agency compiled and cross-referenced about 15 different address lists to plot homes on a parcel map. When the data were conflicting or incomplete, Lima's staff hit the streets themselves.
The next effort will be a massive state- and city-sponsored campaign to persuade people to complete their 2010 Census forms - a particular challenge among immigrants whom the census aims to count even if they are living in the country illegally. College students are also asked to fill out surveys based on where they are living at the time of the census in April.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/ma..._full_bore_to_boost_2010_census_tally/?page=2
In recent years, the notion that the Massachusetts population was slipping bruised local egos and triggered bouts of civic and political hand-wringing: Was Boston no longer the hub of the universe? Had the region become too complacent to attract newcomers, too expensive to keep them? Could the state actually end up losing another member of Congress?
Mayor Thomas M. Menino and state politicians are hoping to prove the latter, as they launch a multipronged effort to boost the ranks responding to the 2010 Census - vital numbers that determine how many seats Massachusetts has in Congress and how much money the state collects from many federal programs.
"We're in serious jeopardy of losing one representative, if not two in the House," said Holly St. Clair, manager of the metro data center for the Metropolitan Area Planning Council. "It's not just about how slow we're growing. It's about how fast other parts of the nation are growing."
For years, Massachusetts population specialists and politicians have contended that the census was failing to count many state residents, especially those living in group quarters, such as the state's many college dormitories. As the 2010 Census approaches, concern is growing so pitched that the Legislature tapped researchers at the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute to conduct their own population estimates, starting with an up-to-date headcount of students, prisoners, the homeless, and others living in group settings.
To produce a count, the researchers contacted every college and university in Massachusetts to count dormitory dwellers, and they itemized the number of people living in all prisons, military installations, convents, nursing homes, and shelters across Massachusetts. The result: A new tally of 234,556 people in group housing - 8 percent more than the census is expected to estimate for 2007. Two-thirds of those newly identified are in the city of Boston.
The city and state hope to use the preliminary data to persuade the Census Bureau to boost its full population estimates, due out this week.
The effort isn't cheap: After spending $700,000 over the past two years, the Legislature is expected to devote $800,000 in the upcoming budget to the census effort.
Secretary of State William F. Galvin said the expense is more than worth it, considering the potential millions of dollars that could be lost with inaccurate counts. So much federal money is allocated based on population that Massachusetts officials estimate each person reported in the 2000 Census was worth $1,621.52. Stagnant population counts cost Massachusetts a congressional seat after the 1980 Census and again after the 1990 count.
In 2000, Galvin added, "We maintained our congressional delegation for the first time in 30 years. I don't know if I can pull a rabbit out of the hat again." The city has also launched its own census effort through the Boston Redevelopment Authority, which handles demographic information for the city.
"It's too important to us to lose numbers and also federal funds, and we could lose a congressman," Menino said. "We're going to work on that with them from the beginning, not the end. We want to be proactive. We've had to react."
For two years running, Boston officials challenged dispiriting population counts that estimated people were leaving Boston year by year. Menino defended Boston as a city on the rise and asserted that the Census Bureau's methodology was flawed - undercounting immigrants, residents of public housing, and students who live in dormitories.
The Census Bureau, which typically adjusts population estimates when challenged, revised its numbers by about 30,000 people one year, 5,000 the next. But that still put Boston's 2006 estimate only at 595,698 people - barely a blip above the 2000 Census count of 589,141 six years earlier.
However, the revised estimate still didn't take into account the new housing - including 8,400 dormitory rooms - that has been built in the city since the 2000 Census. To get the census to include all those units, the city had to provide the bureau with a full accounting of the number of group housing units - including all city dormitories, homeless shelters, prison cells, and nursing homes, said Alvaro Lima, the BRA's research director. Add in all those rooms and the city now believes the population reached at least 616,535.
Unlike the census, in which people are surveyed and counted, the annual population estimates are a mostly statistical exercise - updating the last census counts to reflect new births, deaths, and migration in and out of a state, along with the number of building permits, typical occupancy rates, and typical housing demolition rates.
Group living quarters are not adjusted between 10-year census counts unless the city or state reports the changes. But the yearly estimates are important because they set the stage for the 2010 count and provide an annual basis for distributing federal funds - not to mention its role marketing data that help companies decide where to locate. St. Clair pointed to problems that mounted with each estimate between the 1990 and 2000 Census. By the end of the decade, the Massachusetts population was undercounted by 700,000 people.
Between September and February, the BRA also conducted a massive mapping project to identify every parcel in the city that should get a 2010 Census form.
"It was very ambitious," said Lima, "and very tiring." Lima and a staff of seven at the agency compiled and cross-referenced about 15 different address lists to plot homes on a parcel map. When the data were conflicting or incomplete, Lima's staff hit the streets themselves.
The next effort will be a massive state- and city-sponsored campaign to persuade people to complete their 2010 Census forms - a particular challenge among immigrants whom the census aims to count even if they are living in the country illegally. College students are also asked to fill out surveys based on where they are living at the time of the census in April.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/ma..._full_bore_to_boost_2010_census_tally/?page=2
