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Merrimack Valley to see a population boom, study says
Finding housing is getting tougher
By Dan Tuohy, Globe Correspondent | February 15, 2007
As he took a break from building a new Habitat for Humanity house in Lawrence this month, volunteer Tom Baird focused on his team's biggest challenge.
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Sign up for: Globe Headlines e-mail | Breaking News Alerts "We're having trouble getting property," he said with a shrug.
They might as well get used to it. A new study forecasts a population boom over two decades that will exert pressure on everything from housing to highways. The Merrimack Valley Planning Commission reports that the population of its 15 member communities will jump by 70,000 to 395,000 by 2030.
Andover, Lawrence, Methuen, and North Andover -- the communities in the Globe NorthWest circulation area that are covered by the commission -- will account for an increase of about 23,000 people. Andover and North Andover are expected to grow 25 percent over that period.
And the projections could be on the low side, given various plans that call for conversions of mill space into housing and have communities embracing smart-growth ideals to concentrate development, said Dennis A. DiZoglio, executive director of the planning commission.
DiZoglio, a former Methuen mayor, said municipal services will have to keep pace with the growth. "The area of most concern is obviously the impact on schools," he said.
The projected growth contrasts with reports of Massachusetts losing population in the latest census. The Merrimack Valley has long been one of the state's fastest growing regions, said Anthony Komornick, the commission's transportation program manager.
"We have been sort of bucking the trend," he said.
The 395,000 population estimate is closing in on the build-out capacity of 406,000 for the area represented by the planning commission. The build-out capacity is calculated by measuring available land, space, and zoning constraints. It is a snapshot of today's conditions. The growth could be greater if towns and cities make certain policy changes, such as smart-growth planning to incorporate residential, retail, and office uses in development.
North Andover is pursuing smart-growth planning for the former Lucent plant on Route 125, with a plan for 650 residential units combined with business and industrial options. Thomas Licciardello, chairman of the Board of Selectmen, has called the project a key to North Andover's future.
The region's historic mills also are generating great interest for mixed re uses, including housing.
In Lawrence, just up the street from the Habitat for Humanity house under construction, the Monarch on the Merrimack project is creating up to 200 condominiums in the old Wood Worsted Mill. The site boasts many conveniences, including its location across the street from the McGovern Transportation Center.
With interstates 93 and 495 cutting through, location plays a large role in the growth of the Merrimack Valley. The planning commission has recommended improvements to both highways, including widening I-93 to four lanes in each direction from Andover to Methuen.Continued...
Later this year, the planning commission will release traffic volume and motor vehicle crash rates as part of an update to its regional transportation plan. Existing data show some areas overdue for upgrades, such as the routes 110/113 rotary in Methuen, which has the highest number of crashes in the region, according to Komornick.
Even with a greater focus on public transit, communities are planning or bracing for greater motor vehicle traffic. Andover, in conjunction with Tewksbury and Wilmington, is seeking a new interchange on I-93 to unlock the economic potential of available land between exits 41 and 42.
Alex Vispoli, chairman of the Andover Board of Selectmen, said the towns would seek to balance the economic growth with traffic concerns on secondary roads. He said each aspect of the projected growth underscores the importance of good community planning.
While the growth presents various challenges, Vispoli said it is also a testament to Andover and neighboring communities as good places to live, work, and raise a family. "We're blessed with a great location," he said.
With the growth, communities will face the greater needs of baby boomers, said Anne Proli, associate executive director of Elder Services of the Merrimack Valley.
Older generations already are relying on more diverse community services and long-term-care options in different settings, she said. "The nature of the care we are providing is changing," Proli said. "It's much less institutional. It's more in the community."
Additional statistics compiled by the Merrimack Valley Planning Commission forecast significant economic growth. The jobs estimate for its 15 member communities shows an increase from 150,207 in 2000 to 187,500 in 2030.
The population and employment projections are based on economic modeling and trends of the past 20 years. The next 10 or 20 years could deliver vastly different sets of economic data, said Larry Sharp, executive director of the Lawrence-based Merrimack Valley Habitat for Humanity, which has built 56 houses in 22 communities since its establishment in 1985.
"It looks like a tough market for the foreseeable future," he said. "Affordable housing is getting shorter by the day, and available land to build on is scarce."
? Copyright 2007 Globe Newspaper Company.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/ar...y_to_see_a_population_boom_study_says/?page=1
Merrimack Valley to see a population boom, study says
Finding housing is getting tougher
By Dan Tuohy, Globe Correspondent | February 15, 2007
As he took a break from building a new Habitat for Humanity house in Lawrence this month, volunteer Tom Baird focused on his team's biggest challenge.
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Single page
E-mail to a friend
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powered by Del.icio.us
More:
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Boston.com
Sign up for: Globe Headlines e-mail | Breaking News Alerts "We're having trouble getting property," he said with a shrug.
They might as well get used to it. A new study forecasts a population boom over two decades that will exert pressure on everything from housing to highways. The Merrimack Valley Planning Commission reports that the population of its 15 member communities will jump by 70,000 to 395,000 by 2030.
Andover, Lawrence, Methuen, and North Andover -- the communities in the Globe NorthWest circulation area that are covered by the commission -- will account for an increase of about 23,000 people. Andover and North Andover are expected to grow 25 percent over that period.
And the projections could be on the low side, given various plans that call for conversions of mill space into housing and have communities embracing smart-growth ideals to concentrate development, said Dennis A. DiZoglio, executive director of the planning commission.
DiZoglio, a former Methuen mayor, said municipal services will have to keep pace with the growth. "The area of most concern is obviously the impact on schools," he said.
The projected growth contrasts with reports of Massachusetts losing population in the latest census. The Merrimack Valley has long been one of the state's fastest growing regions, said Anthony Komornick, the commission's transportation program manager.
"We have been sort of bucking the trend," he said.
The 395,000 population estimate is closing in on the build-out capacity of 406,000 for the area represented by the planning commission. The build-out capacity is calculated by measuring available land, space, and zoning constraints. It is a snapshot of today's conditions. The growth could be greater if towns and cities make certain policy changes, such as smart-growth planning to incorporate residential, retail, and office uses in development.
North Andover is pursuing smart-growth planning for the former Lucent plant on Route 125, with a plan for 650 residential units combined with business and industrial options. Thomas Licciardello, chairman of the Board of Selectmen, has called the project a key to North Andover's future.
The region's historic mills also are generating great interest for mixed re uses, including housing.
In Lawrence, just up the street from the Habitat for Humanity house under construction, the Monarch on the Merrimack project is creating up to 200 condominiums in the old Wood Worsted Mill. The site boasts many conveniences, including its location across the street from the McGovern Transportation Center.
With interstates 93 and 495 cutting through, location plays a large role in the growth of the Merrimack Valley. The planning commission has recommended improvements to both highways, including widening I-93 to four lanes in each direction from Andover to Methuen.Continued...
Later this year, the planning commission will release traffic volume and motor vehicle crash rates as part of an update to its regional transportation plan. Existing data show some areas overdue for upgrades, such as the routes 110/113 rotary in Methuen, which has the highest number of crashes in the region, according to Komornick.
Even with a greater focus on public transit, communities are planning or bracing for greater motor vehicle traffic. Andover, in conjunction with Tewksbury and Wilmington, is seeking a new interchange on I-93 to unlock the economic potential of available land between exits 41 and 42.
Alex Vispoli, chairman of the Andover Board of Selectmen, said the towns would seek to balance the economic growth with traffic concerns on secondary roads. He said each aspect of the projected growth underscores the importance of good community planning.
While the growth presents various challenges, Vispoli said it is also a testament to Andover and neighboring communities as good places to live, work, and raise a family. "We're blessed with a great location," he said.
With the growth, communities will face the greater needs of baby boomers, said Anne Proli, associate executive director of Elder Services of the Merrimack Valley.
Older generations already are relying on more diverse community services and long-term-care options in different settings, she said. "The nature of the care we are providing is changing," Proli said. "It's much less institutional. It's more in the community."
Additional statistics compiled by the Merrimack Valley Planning Commission forecast significant economic growth. The jobs estimate for its 15 member communities shows an increase from 150,207 in 2000 to 187,500 in 2030.
The population and employment projections are based on economic modeling and trends of the past 20 years. The next 10 or 20 years could deliver vastly different sets of economic data, said Larry Sharp, executive director of the Lawrence-based Merrimack Valley Habitat for Humanity, which has built 56 houses in 22 communities since its establishment in 1985.
"It looks like a tough market for the foreseeable future," he said. "Affordable housing is getting shorter by the day, and available land to build on is scarce."
? Copyright 2007 Globe Newspaper Company.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/ar...y_to_see_a_population_boom_study_says/?page=1