Proposals slowing down

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tysmith95

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Does anyone else notice that the number of new project proposals has slowed down alot this year compared to last year. Last year we would get multiple new proposals a week, this year it seems like we're only getting a new proposal once a month. Is this current boom in development coming to an end?
 
I'm going to raise the BS flag on this supposed population growth slowdown / market cool down. We've yet to see any decline in real estate demand in this area. Everything on the market gets scooped up immediately. And, see the 1 Dalton thread, they supposedly sold the penthouse for $40M, breaking MT's record.

I work with young people in Tech and I just don't see it. What I do see, is young people with upper middle class salary offers leaving Boston in droves because they perceive a tight real estate market and better deals to be had elsewhere.

What i DO expect is a plateauing of real estate prices...maybe even a slight correction.

But everything...I mean everything on the market...will get scooped up with minor corrections. They could keep building and keep selling indefinitely (practically speaking).

Mark it down, that's my bet.
 
I don't know about you but last year is more of an exception than the norm. This is pretty normal for me.
 
tysmith95 said:
Does anyone else notice that the number of new project proposals has slowed down alot this year compared to last year. Last year we would get multiple new proposals a week, this year it seems like we're only getting a new proposal once a month. Is this current boom in development coming to an end?
Click to expand...

With the insane amount of proposals/approvals over the last few years, you'd think there would be more shovels in the ground. You would be wrong. In another city, a proposal announced today would "expect to break ground in the fall." In Boston, a proposal announced today has about a 50/50 chance of breaking ground by 2030.

These proposals are all a huge tease when the only things getting built with regularity are the stumps. Who the hell fucking cares anymore about upcoming proposals? The world is likely to end before any of them get built. The only thing that matters is getting the currently approved projects OUT OF THE GROUND before the collapse of civilization.
 
^^I disagree, the whole Seaport is being built, the Hub on Causeway is under construction, 1 Dalton is under construction, Congress Street garage is undergoing demolition, Ink Block is under construction, Fenway has 4 projects under construction, Northeastern's new dorm is under construction. I think there's fairly a lot going on in Boston and probably the most activity the city have seen since the 70s. I think everyone is getting a little spoiled and greedy here.
 
I don't disagree with you all, I just think that the lack of proposals is a leading indicator that will lead to less construction in a year or two. I hope I'm wrong but this cycle might be loosing it's steam.
 
For everyone's amusement. I played with Google Trends a bit. I compared "Boston tower" with other city searches, and set the filters to limit it to the "Real Estate" category (if you don't it picks up on all kinds of other unrelated news stories). Also, I avoided cities with compound names like New York or San Francisco because those searches are unreliable in GTrends -- (although putting quotes around "San Francisco" creates a line almost identical to Boston's).

So, yea, there were pockets of time last year where "Boston Tower" was more prevalent. But overall there's no significant downward trend.

And interesting to note that, while no where near cities like Seattle or Chicago, Boston is a solid step above Philly and Atlanta.

Again, for our amusement. This is entirely unscientific. Boston is the gold line in the middle

rG97Wof.png


And here's the 10 year trend just for Boston -- yeah, we're a bit off-peak:

LE0FL3d.png
 
Actually, tysmith is observant...about a year ago from right now was an all-time peak
 
As prices fall, demand will increase. It may swing a little bit up and down, but I highly doubt demand will fall for quite a long time. MIT etc have been inventing the future for a long time and now they're producing jobs en masse. This has gotten all the stronger from pharma moving R and D to Boston. Now GE.
 
Thanks to the Seaport + other luxury projects, it appears we're not going to have a shortage of luxury condo's. Demand looks bright for a long time yet. Our much anticipated, 6~7 tall resident towers are taking forever. When they finally arrive, people who have been occupying infill will continue to fill them (hopefully) at a breathtaking rate (fingers crossed).

If we can hold off from a 2nd Great Recession type of event for 5~6 more years, we just could reach a new level – with Boston truly flexing it's might. At some point we might enter a new phase; where there will not be enough supply to quench demand.
 
I still lots of small projects being proposed in A/B.

- Demolish garage and build 4 new townhouses at 12 Glenmont.

- 168 Bigelow St- Seeks to erect two townhouses on empty lot

- 46-48 Hitchborn Street- proposal to build 31 residential units

The last one will probably show up on the BPDA site sometime, but the other two may only go to the Zoning Board and not be that huge beyond the fact that infill is still happening.

Maybe the pace is off a little, it is hard to say whether you've gone from 3 projects per month at a Brighton Allston Improvement Association meeting to 2. But it still isn't 5 years ago when it would often be 3 or 4 months in a row with no new projects discussed.
 
odurandina said:
If we can hold off from a 2nd Great Recession type of event for 5~6 more years, we just could reach a new level – with Boston truly flexing it's might. At some point we might enter a new phase; where there will not be enough supply to quench demand.
Click to expand...

I guess that depends if the US wants to hurl itself headlong into the Syria mess. Looking to see oil price rise after last night which would inflate cost among multiple sectors in the US.
 
I've always kind of assumed that Real People™ weren't buying the luxury condos; just Chinese Billionaires and Hedge Funds. Now that interest rates have gone up a bit, maybe the Hedge Funds are starting to rein in their borrow-and-buy spree and that makes developers nervous?
 
jklo said:
I've always kind of assumed that Real People™ weren't buying the luxury condos; just Chinese Billionaires and Hedge Funds. Now that interest rates have gone up a bit, maybe the Hedge Funds are starting to rein in their borrow-and-buy spree and that makes developers nervous?
Click to expand...

Your assumption has always been wrong.
 
I feel when its cold they get the approvals, break ground,bla bla in the cold weather so they're ready to go when the weather gets much better. Right now theres probably a dozen buildings under construction which is still at all time high levels. With much more coming right down the pipeline.

I don't think theres anything to worry about until something gets stopped dead in its tracks or after partially built...like a phase 1 build out before stopping. Hasn't happened yet but thats when you know things are slowing down.
 
Emporis lists 14 buildings under construction, so you're estimate is pretty close. However, Seattle has 35.
 
^^Our approved/but near-gone-stale list of tall highrises is pissing me off.


As far as the general topic goes,
have AB people counted the not-yet-started sq ft?

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=135471185&postcount=841

Proposals have dropped. Does it matter?

Planning + the 'bit over the horizon' future stuff unveiled during the last 2-3 years could well amount to 5-6 years of construction–at least. For HYM, Boston Properties, Samuels, etc, their projects will be going on for at least that scale of time. Current proposals + approved (but not broken ground) + under construction/topped/completed is remarkable.

Developers filled their plates with 5-6-7 years of steak. It had to slow down.

If the Trump Admn/Republicans can keep the economy going, we can sustain a 2-3 year vacation for proposals. But, demand for residential (despite this seemingly INSANE stream of supply) ....could continue for years.

i continue to be baffled by our office market. But, i think an extended span of slow/moderate office growth would inevitably occur... The big fatty could be held over, or converted to a mixed use hotel (whatever); we still have that buffer.

The problem with residential, isn't going to be demand; but affordability. With big infill projects and tens of thousands of units planned, you wonder if people have the money to move in. ...If that is somehow possible......


It is a remarkable transformation in any case.
 
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