Amazon HQ2 RFP

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From the DOT AVE planning initiative.

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stefalarchitect said:
This plan is also optimal for the phenomenon that was expected with GE moving to the area and other companies relocating so they'd be close to GE. Amazon being added to the mix would probably bring more cloud computing, e-commerce, and general tech companies into the area, so even if Amazon doesn't end up doing a full 8m Sq ft build out, they'll have plenty of possible tenants looking to fill new office space along Dot Ave.
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Thinking about the GE angle, this might actually be our killer advantage over any other location. Amazon and GE are both looking at a similar future of connected industrial technology. There is an opportunity for tech clustering around that basis.
 
OK, here's a premise: Amazon is obviously going to pick Boston, the questions are just what incentive package we give them and where they locate within the city.
 
Rover said:
Stupid article. What city wouldn't struggle to fill 50,000 jobs? NYC, LA and...? Kind of a good problem to have and while the labor market may be tight local colleges should be able to keep the pool of available talent growing.
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The premise of the article is flat-out wrong.

I did the math upthread and Boston alone could fill all the jobs with 5-10% of its graduating population each year. And that's not even counting the significant supply of talent from regional schools' students, people moving in from out of state, and experienced hires. It's not going to be a problem to find 50,000 talented people over 15-20 years.
 
FenwayResident said:
The premise of the article is flat-out wrong.

I did the math upthread and Boston alone could fill all the jobs with 5-10% of its graduating population each year. And that's not even counting the significant supply of talent from regional schools' students, people moving in from out of state, and experienced hires. It's not going to be a problem to find 50,000 talented people over 15-20 years.
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5-10% of Boston's graduating population each year is an absolutely enormous, insurmountable amount. Boston's grads are divvied up among tens of thousands of different employers and organizations all around the world; there's no way one company is going to get 5-10%.

And even with that caveat, according to the study cited in the Globe Boston area schools awarded 31,400 "technology-related degrees" in the 5 years from 2011 to 2015. It's likely that only a fraction of those are "technology-related" in a way that would interest Amazon. And the far majority of those grads end up happily fulfilled in pursuits (other companies, grad schools, etc.) other than Amazon.

50k jobs is a ton, and I totally buy that it would put serious pressure on hiring across the metro.
 
FenwayResident said:
The premise of the article is flat-out wrong.

I did the math upthread and Boston alone could fill all the jobs with 5-10% of its graduating population each year. And that's not even counting the significant supply of talent from regional schools' students, people moving in from out of state, and experienced hires. It's not going to be a problem to find 50,000 talented people over 15-20 years.
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^
Exactly.

Didn't read the article, because I'm not paying for the Globe anymore (after Henry fired Orsillo), and they finally figured out the incognito loophole. I'm guessing they set up the article on the guise that if Amazon comes here they are going to open their doors on day 1 with 50,000 employees?

The 50,000 employees is the 2027 & beyond number. Their current HQ is only at 40k.

First phase, 500,000 SF. Guessing that they're a relatively dense, open office environment, that would be ~150-200 SF/Per Person. Which would mean 2,500-3,500 employees in PH1. Even that isn't entirely accurate because some teams will be relocating. I think Boston (and surrounding areas) could easily fill whatever jobs they bring in.

Another thing to keep in mind is; this won't be purely tech jobs. If this is really an HQ2, then there will be a portion of admin/back of house type jobs that will go to people other than the tech industry. A small portion, but a portion non the less.
 
50k jobs would put a hiring pressure on any metro, even on a place like NYC or SFO. SFO already has a huge housing shortage, worse then it is here.
 
JumboBuc said:
5-10% of Boston's graduating population each year is an absolutely enormous, insurmountable amount. Boston's grads are divvied up among tens of thousands of different employers and organizations all around the world; there's no way one company is going to get 5-10%.

And even with that caveat, according to the study cited in the Globe Boston area schools awarded 31,400 "technology-related degrees" in the 5 years from 2011 to 2015. It's likely that only a fraction of those are "technology-related" in a way that would interest Amazon. And the far majority of those grads end up happily fulfilled in pursuits (other companies, grad schools, etc.) other than Amazon.

50k jobs is a ton, and I totally buy that it would put serious pressure on hiring across the metro.
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5-10% is also a gross over-estimation, I just put it there to give some context. The actual amount needed is at least 10x less than that. Most entry level hires will be coming from all over the country, not just Boston schools. Also, a large portion of the 50,000 will be experienced hires and not entry level.

Another point is that not all of the 50,000 will be tech related. There will be a significant portion of finance, HR, marketing, etc. jobs thrown into the mix.

Finally let's not forget to mention that it's 50,000 over 15-20 years. Does 2,500 people per year really sound so crazy?
 
Related: Amazon sign lease for 360k SF at 5 Manhattan West

The click-bait title is deliberately misleading. This was obviously a deal long in the working prior to the RFP for HQ2, however you will undoubtedly see a lot of shocked reactions on LinkedIn-book, and other follow up articles.

Gotta get dat ad revenue son!
 
FenwayResident said:
5-10% is also a gross over-estimation, I just put it there to give some context. The actual amount needed is at least 10x less than that. Most entry level hires will be coming from all over the country, not just Boston schools. Also, a large portion of the 50,000 will be experienced hires and not entry level.

Another point is that not all of the 50,000 will be tech related. There will be a significant portion of finance, HR, marketing, etc. jobs thrown into the mix.

Finally let's not forget to mention that it's 50,000 over 15-20 years. Does 2,500 people per year really sound so crazy?
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Plus everyone is forgetting about the colleges in Worcester (specifically WPI). Massachusetts is not a big state, our second biggest city is only a 50 minute drive away. Lots of the students that go to the Worcester colleges end up moving to Boston for better job opportunities anyways.
 
I think some people, and the Globe, missed the larger point.

Let's assume at year 10, Amazon has 30,000 employees in Boston, and the number of new positions being added to the employment total is 3,000 a year.

Attrition will occur among the 30,000 employees not newly hired in year 10. Conservatively, let's assume an annual attrition rate of 30 percent, or 9,000 employees.

Thus in year 10, Amazon has to hire 12,000 employees, those hired into newly created positions and those hired to replace those who left.

This is more than a bit of oversimplification, as not all those hired in year 10 are 'techies'. Let's further assume half of the hires are techies. That is 6,000 techie hires a year or about 20 percent of the graduates with tech degrees from Boston area schools. And let's face it, Amazon is likely to confine its Greater Boston hiring to graduates of certain schools. Ergo, the available annual pool of tech graduates from Greater Boston schools is likely to be less than 31,000+.
 
Are people really making the argument here that Amazon stocking up a 30k - 50k employee office, even over 10 years, would be no big deal? Really?

In our current booming economy, Massachusetts adds about 52k jobs a year, total. That's in all sectors across the whole Commonwealth. In the last decade we've averaged about 29k new jobs a year, or 285k total. 50k on top of that is enormous! One employer looking to hire 50k people, even over ten years, would put a ton of pressure on our labor market. Going off the last ten years, that'd be one company on one campus adding an additional 17.5% of the entire Commonwealth's total employment growth. In a full employment economy, no less! Think about the Longwood Medical Area: it's a major source of employment and a key driver of our local economy. As of 2013, it employed about 46k people, total. Amazon moving here would be like adding another LMA over just 10 years.

Yes, we graduate a bunch of people every year, but most of them get jobs! The unemployment rate for new tech grads is roughly 0%. This is a textbook "full employment" demographic. It's not as if these grads are sitting around looking for something to do; if Amazon hires them, that means they're turning down other options.

And yes, tight employment markets are good for employees (higher wages) but they also make it really difficult for smaller companies looking to hire. Amazon would likely draw a good share of its employees from outside of the state, which would relieve labor market pressure, but then we'd need to find a place to house all those people...

I'm not saying that the pressure Amazon would add to labor markets is a terrible thing that must be avoided. Its benefits could outweigh its negatives. But it is an absolutely ridiculous head-in-the-sand argument to claim that we have a bunch of colleges so this labor market pressure would never materialize. It would, and it would be a really big deal.
 
JumboBuc said:
Are people really making the argument here that Amazon stocking up a 30k - 50k employee office, even over 10 years, would be no big deal? Really?

In our current booming economy, Massachusetts adds about 52k jobs a year, total. That's in all sectors across the whole Commonwealth. In the last decade we've averaged about 29k new jobs a year, or 285k total. 50k on top of that is enormous! One employer looking to hire 50k people, even over ten years, would put a ton of pressure on our labor market. Going off the last ten years, that'd be one company on one campus adding an additional 17.5% of the entire Commonwealth's total employment growth. In a full employment economy, no less! Think about the Longwood Medical Area: it's a major source of employment and a key driver of our local economy. As of 2013, it employed about 46k people, total. Amazon moving here would be like adding another LMA over just 10 years.

Yes, we graduate a bunch of people every year, but most of them get jobs! The unemployment rate for new tech grads is roughly 0%. This is a textbook "full employment" demographic. It's not as if these grads are sitting around looking for something to do; if Amazon hires them, that means they're turning down other options.

And yes, tight employment markets are good for employees (higher wages) but they also make it really difficult for smaller companies looking to hire. Amazon would likely draw a good share of its employees from outside of the state, which would relieve labor market pressure, but then we'd need to find a place to house all those people...

I'm not saying that the pressure Amazon would add to labor markets is a terrible thing that must be avoided. Its benefits could outweigh its negatives. But it is an absolutely ridiculous head-in-the-sand argument to claim that we have a bunch of colleges so this labor market pressure would never materialize. It would, and it would be a really big deal.
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I don't think anyone is making the argument that it won't be a big deal. Of course it will have implications on the labor market. I'm just pointing out that adding 2,500 jobs per year is not some crazy feat that only NYC or LA could accomplish.

Also I'd like to point out a couple things from your post:

1) Amazon's stated time horizon for full HQ2 employment is 15-20 years, not 10.
2) Tech grads having 0% unemployment does not mean they are all getting jobs in Boston. Right now many are heading to Silicon Valley, NYC, or Austin; but if Amazon were here they would have the opportunity to stay put rather than move away.
3) There would be other corporate functions besides engineering in Boston. Finance, management, HR, marketing, legal just to name a few.
4) Not all labor supply would be sourced from Boston. In fact I'd wager the majority of new Amazon employees would come from outside of MA.

The bigger issue IMO is housing and infrastructure, not finding talent. People can move across the country; apartment buildings and subway tunnels can't.
 
CSTH said:
OK, here's a premise: Amazon is obviously going to pick Boston, the questions are just what incentive package we give them and where they locate within the city.
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WOW! Awesome vote of confidence!

i'm feeling it too. i also believe Marty, Brian and Sara ain't gonna fuck this up (crazy). Such a weird thing seeing Boston taking center stage!


*wish Sara could be back already (though).

**keep the State baffoons and Suffolk Downs at a safe distance about what parcels.
 
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To me the state can supply the workforce due to all the graduates over the 15 year timeframe be it in tech or other functions. It would as people say be a matter of more people remaining in the city after graduation.

Yes, without a doubt the city would get even more crowded than it already is. However, two things would happen. First people will commute from further away (SE Mass, RI, NH, the hinterland beyond Wooostah, etc) to get to the good paying jobs. No, not necessarily a good thing, but people will follow jobs. Second, less populated places with transit accessibility will start to fill up. Rhode Island which is depopulating comes to mind with that relatively easy commute from Providence, or the impetus to run commuter rail finally up through New Hampshire will cause an increase there.

Now, I'm not passing judgment on how good, bad or indifferent that is either, but the region could ramp up the growth rate a little bit faster and still not feel like Beijing.
 
Rover said:
To me the state can supply the workforce due to all the graduates over the 15 year timeframe be it in tech or other functions. It would as people say be a matter of more people remaining in the city after graduation.

Yes, without a doubt the city would get even more crowded than it already is. However, two things would happen. First people will commute from further away (SE Mass, RI, NH, the hinterland beyond Wooostah, etc) to get to the good paying jobs. No, not necessarily a good thing, but people will follow jobs. Second, less populated places with transit accessibility will start to fill up. Rhode Island which is depopulating comes to mind with that relatively easy commute from Providence, or the impetus to run commuter rail finally up through New Hampshire will cause an increase there.

Now, I'm not passing judgment on how good, bad or indifferent that is either, but the region could ramp up the growth rate a little bit faster and still not feel like Beijing.
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Providence to Boston ain't what I'd call an easy commute.
 
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