Green Line Extension to Medford & Union Sq

[citylover94]

Well considering that is where the current work is happening that would make sense and that is the first portion to open to service doesn't mean anything really though unless you want to give more context and information.

 

[Arlington]

I saw a map on a local TV station that seemed to end at Union Sq and Washington St.

Yes, those two, plus Lechmere, will open first (as "Phase 2") and the Gilman-to-Tufts leg opens about 2 years later (under "traditional" phasing)

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

CS: You've made an invaluable contribution to the discussion of the future or lack there-of for the Green Line Extension --specifically -- your Green Smiley face -- I plan to use it much in the future

By the way -- Special for F-Line -- I'm not sure its authoritative -- but today, although I missed the accompanying story, I saw a map on a local TV station that seemed to end at Union Sq and Washington St.

First step towards recovery, Professor, is admitting when you're too lazy to read before posting a braindump of irrelevance. Consider that one small step. ³

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Yes, those two, plus Lechmere, will open first (as "Phase 2") and the Gilman-to-Tufts leg opens about 2 years later (under "traditional" phasing)

And it's done that way because it's the maximum they can run each branch at full D- and E-paired service levels without the carhouse and end-of-line vehicle storage available. Next phase is dependent on north-end storage being in place, otherwise the Medford branch would have to switch from D run-thrus to a much sparser service pattern of largely Brattle Loop short-turns that just converyor-belts back and forth at inferior headways and represents a slight service reduction from Washington St.'s Day 1 service.

Not news; the phasing has been set up like this for years now. The next phase after the opening segment was always the toughest leap in cost of all the project phases because of the storage prerequisite.

 

[Ruairi]

The Globes transport correspondent is live tweeting todays meeting again. https://twitter.com/ndungca

 

[Ruairi]

They've bought 51 properties, 24 cars and have spent 3/4 billion dollars to date and they're still talking about canning it. Nuts!

 

[ant8904]

Secretary Pollack now going through the options that have been under consideration: Build, cancel, or reduce the costs of GLX going forward

Why is the options always seems to be accept the costs, don't build at all, or reduce by cutting out stuff? It has been repeated that it doesn't cost this much to build it, they it only cost this much because the contractor gamed the system to charge at absurd prices that no one tried to negotiate back.

Edit:

Geoffrey Yarema, attorney w/ Nossaman, now telling the board that they can continue w/ current procurement process, but w/ best practices.

Consultants recommend that the MBTA put the remaining work out to bid again in a design-build contract.

Now that's more like it. Don't cancel. Don't accept paying 33% mark up over last estimates. Don't cut features. Make them do the work for the price we know they can do and do with them still coming out ahead.

 

[Arlington]

They've bought 51 properties, 24 cars and have spent 3/4 billion dollars to date and they're still talking about canning it. Nuts!

But not nuts to put the fear of cancellation into the hearts of all contractors and politicians.

Other nugget: they've already spent $380 million. Canceling project, they would still spend $742.3 million (including $182m on new GL cars, which'd be nice)

 

[Texasian]

Assuming worst case scenario: cancellation, would there be enough space to keep the new cars alongside the 7's and 8's?

 

[tangent]

But not nuts to put the fear of cancellation into the hearts of all contractors and politicians.

It isn't a good negotiating position unless you have a real option to walk away. And they should walk away from bids which we know are not cost justified.

 

[Ruairi]

It isn't a good negotiating position unless you have a real option to walk away. And they should walk away from bids which we know are not cost justified.

And it only works as a threat if there's only one bidder, which is unlikely. Judging by the tweets, they seem to be making a big deal of cancelation.
Makes very little sense to me.

 

[Texasian]

So basically, it comes down to two options:
1) Cancellation: New cars, 51 parcels of "little to no resale value", ~$750Million in sunk cost, not including possible cost of litigation, sunk political careers all around
2) Cost Reductions through value engineering/scope, hitting up cities/developers for money, switch to design-build etc etc.

Nothing we didn't already know/hasn't already been discussed to death here. The new nugget of information is that they expect they'll need 6-9 months in order to figure out if they can reduce costs enough to make the project affordable again.

Meeting Presentation Slides: http://www.mbta.com/uploadedfiles/About_the_T/Board_Meetings/GLXJointBoardMeeting12092015.pdf

 

[Arlington]

And it only works as a threat if there's only one bidder, which is unlikely.

It leaves them the option of going back to the current WSK consortium and saying

"Between cancellation and re-bidding there's near-zero chance you (White Skanska Kiewit) are going to get this work as it stands, since we will cancel at current costs.

But we may build it if competitive bidding lowers our cost (as the consultants predict). Given that, you, WSK, can keep the work if you give us a new price that looks like about what we'd expect from competitive bidding (and saves us the time and trouble of re-bidding and delivers sooner)
​

 

[Ruairi]

It leaves them the option of going back to the current WSK consortium and saying

"Between cancellation and re-bidding there's near-zero chance you (White Skanska Kiewit) are going to get this work as it stands, since we will cancel at current costs.

But we may build it if competitive bidding lowers our cost (as the consultants predict). Given that, you, WSK, can keep the work if you give us a new price that looks like about what we'd expect from competitive bidding (and saves us the time and trouble of re-bidding and delivers sooner)
​

Ah right, thanks.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

1) 6-9 months is all the time in the world for the potential legal challenges of a cancellation to get themselves loaded for bear in preparation and line up heavier hitters than prior CLF lawsuits.

2) While the MA Presidential primary is March 1, 2016 the state elections primary is Sept. 20, 2016. 10 months from now, after the final decision has had time to digest and affect every primary race in advance of a high-turnout general election. Which means every candidate touched by the project will be spending those 6-9 months cashing in every political favor they've got to ensure they aren't harmed. And possibly contributing to the loading-for-bear in #1 to strengthen that firewall.


This entire process is being served up so Option #2--refinancing for resumption of a full build--is a pre-ordained conclusion. Because, as previously stressed, there are political careers on the line all across the top level...making it a threat on the power brokers' turf...and no bigger inflection point for that threat than the eve of a primary. And even though Baker isn't up this year, his 2018 chances are directly impacted by how many friends or enemies he makes over this decision. Burning a whole slew of pols in the '16 primary is a doubleplusbad way to hold together the coalition a GOP Gov. in MA must hold together in order to function, and enough if it goes bad to open Pandora's Box for a doomsday matchup in '18 against a highly-motivated Mike Capuano or other sitting U.S. Rep with name recognition who can crush him in fundraising.


So...yes, this is playing out exactly like we thought. The powers are acting like it's a mortal threat to them because it is, and any kabuki dance of deal-making they do amongst themselves is going to be for continuing the project not scuttling it. The timetable vs. the primaries and how many political heavies that sucks in is the 'tell' that reveals the extremely likely outcome.

This thing will get built.

 

[Texasian]

1) 6-9 months is all the time in the world for the potential legal challenges of a cancellation to get themselves loaded for bear in preparation and line up heavier hitters than prior CLF lawsuits.

...

This entire process is being served up so Option #2--refinancing for resumption of a full build--is a pre-ordained conclusion...

...

This thing will get built.

By full build, do you mean E-Line to Union and D-Line to Tufts built? Or do you mean just the majority of the project gets built?

I just can't imagine how anybody thought a shuttle from Union Square or Commuter Rail access would be a viable alternative here.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

By full build, do you mean E-Line to Union and D-Line to Tufts built? Or do you mean just the majority of the project gets built?

I just can't imagine how anybody thought a shuttle from Union Square or Commuter Rail access would be a viable alternative here.

The whole thing as-planned to College Ave. + carhouse, with "threat re-bidding" to either make WSK behave or replace them with somebody else who bids in good faith. And I doubt any intermediate stations will be cut, since they did not mention that at all.


A Union shuttle spares no one the same political consequences as an outright cancellation, so that's a nonstarter and as unlikely an outcome as full cancellation given the way the political calendar aligns. Now, we may have to live with Phase I a couple years longer than anticipated because of this 6-9 month delay, but it won't be their ultimate retreat position.

 

[393b40]

Put me in the it's gonna get shit canned column. It's just too easy of a sell to the rest of the state. Nobody is going to care if the hipster elite in Somerville don't get a fancy mile long light-rail extension. Well except Somerville.

 

[mass88]

Put me in the it's gonna get shit canned column. It's just too easy of a sell to the rest of the state. Nobody is going to care if the hipster elite in Somerville don't get a fancy mile long light-rail extension. Well except Somerville.

I am as well. People are going to look at the massive overrun projected and say no thanks.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Put me in the it's gonna get shit canned column. It's just too easy of a sell to the rest of the state. Nobody is going to care if the hipster elite in Somerville don't get a fancy mile long light-rail extension. Well except Somerville.

Rest of the state is going to see $750M in sunk cost for nothing other than drainage improvements for the hipsters of Somerville and say "Great deal! Such fiscal responsibility!"?

Explain.