Great to have you back! At least some of these points were ones I anticipated
Here are the main drawbacks and challenges:
- Huntington's frequency is limited to "2 letter bullets" / 3-4 min, as a branch into Tremont
....
Frequency on the Huntington Ave subway is really what concerns me the most. By now, I firmly believe that this is the most important
tunnel that's yet to be built. LMA alone gets you nearly as many workers as Back Bay, and that's not counting the multiple schools along Huntington Ave itself and MFA, all of which are big destinations. Assuming each "letter bullet" has 6-8 min headways / 8-10 tph,
this limits Huntington to 3-4 min headways -- which looks okay until you factor in
capacity constraints of LRT. Remember, this trunk will probably carry the equivalent to Cambridge's Red Line in the reverse-peak direction.
You can alternatively send 3 bullets down Huntington, but at the cost of a single bullet to Nubian, which I'm not fond of either. And that's the key issue with Criss-Cross: It forces
a binary choice between Huntington and Nubian.
How that compares to Tripod's choice between Tremont and Seaport is anyone's guess, but I'd argue that the latter is not a binary one: Tremont can get supplemental service from Nubian under Tripod, but that can't be said for Huntington under Criss-Cross.
So I actually think this isn't quite as drastic as it seems.
One of the big things to highlight at the outset is the
capacity boost from full usage of Park St quad tracks. One of the downsides of Tripod is that you're limited in your ability to use all four tracks flexibly. As a result of this, we've assumed that Huntington + Nubian trains would be capped at 30 tph, operating primarily on the outer tracks, while we try to fit at least 15 tph from Kenmore on the Inner Track -- totaling 45 tph across all four tracks. Now, I've been looking at some older schedules recently, and it does seem like the Green Line did sometimes advertise the equivalent of ~42 tph across all four tracks (90s and early 00s). But I think 45 tph would be a stretch beyond that. If 40 tph is the ceiling, and we need 15 tph to provide 8-min headways to B/C, then that's only 25 tph available for Huntington + Nubian, which caps us out at just under 6 min headways on each. (I also think 40 tph under the Tripod model is far from certain, so 6 min headways is a
best case.)
So, that's one "bullet" for Huntington <> Park under Tripod, with room for one or mayyyybe two "bullets" for Huntington <> Seaport. (I'm a little skeptical that a 2-min cadence of Park-Seaport-Seaport-Park-Seaport-Seaport would be doable.)
Under Criss Cross, you're guaranteed 2 full "bullets" for Huntington <> Park and mayyyybe a little extra (see below).
So, to me, the outcomes are about the same: you can guarantee 2 "bullets" (3-4 min headways) for Huntington, and maybe squeeze a little bit more. In terms of squeezing extra capacity, I think Criss Cross's simpler design gives you better chances.
To put it another way:
View attachment Green Line Reconfiguration Capacity Equations.png
What's going on with the [8,15] ranges, you ask? This brings us to your point about
Huntington vs Nubian. Under Tripod, the network is complicated enough that simple interval ratios seem necessary to make it viable. For example, giving Nubian and Huntington an equal 15 tph each, or running a 10 tph Huntington - Park service alongside a 20 tph Huntington - Seaport service.
Under Criss Cross, though, I'd argue there's a lot more flexibility because of the full availability of the Park St quad tracks. For example, 25 tph to Huntington and 10 tph to Nubian, if we are concerned about Huntington frequencies, though personally I'd go for the inverse of 20 tph (3 min) to Huntington and 15 tph (4 min) to Nubian. In any case, this flexibility means there's a range of potential frequencies, which the brackets are meant to encompass.
Back to the equations: if we assume equal splits and simple resonances, Tripod and Criss Cross provide the same number of trains to Huntington at the low end of
M, with Tripod edging out Criss Cross at high end of
M (though see below about 40 tph and 20-25 tph). If we get funkier with the scheduling, both designs can provide 2-min headways on Huntington if
M is 40 and Nubian gets minimum frequencies of 8 tph. But if
M is 30 (worst case scenario but possible), then Huntington gets stuck with 8-min headways to downtown, which seems like a non-starter. (And would be harder to achieve 3-min combined frequencies with interleaved Seaport trains -- you would either need to live with 4 min, or be okay squeezing one train in 1 minute after the previous. Again, precision scheduling that seems risky under Tripod.)
Overall, my point is that while I agree that Tripod provides some additional options for increasing frequencies by layering in Seaport trains, on the balance I think that Criss Cross's guaranteed 15+ tph branching out of a simple 30 tph trunk is a better bet than Tripod's interline-with-Nubian-and-interline-with-Seaport.
A further note on "cheating" capacity at Park Street to get to 40 tph: today, the Outer Tracks theoretically carry 30 tph. If we imagine that a South End subway is built, and the Nubian Branch receives 20 tph, a Huntington Subway could send 10 tph to the Outer Tracks (matching today's capacity of 30 tph) and send 10 tph to the Inner Tracks to loop. In practice, even I don't advocate for out-and-out 3-min headways to Nubian, so if Nubian instead gets 15 tph (4-min), Huntington could send its own 15 tph on to the Outer Tracks, plus another 10 on to the Inner Tracks, getting you to 2.4-min headways. And, until a subway to Nubian is built, realistically, I think the most it would get is 12 tph (5 min), maybe even 10 tph (

), which in turn means that Huntington could run 18-20 tph on the Outer Tracks, plus 10 tph to the Inner Loop, which gets you to (just about) 2-min headways along Huntington.
(Now, I must admit that I don't really believe that the T is actually hitting 30 tph through Park St right now [although I guess this is something I could verify empirically], so it may not be possible to actually reach 40 tph anymore. But I think that's all the more reason in favor of Criss Cross over Tripod.)
20-25 tph: Truth be told, 20 trains per hour (see note below about rolling stock) along Huntington seems pretty reasonable to me. That being said, the clearest example I could find of Tripod increasing frequencies on Huntington was an increase from 20 to 25 tph; this would be a frequency increase from 3 min to 2.4 min. That's not trivial, but I wouldn't say it's transformative, and it's moving toward the level of precision scheduling that I worry about Tripod's ability to deliver.
Maximizing frequencies on Huntington: If we are concerned that 3-min headways would be insufficient, then I think we would need to be talking about a straightforward Highland Branch <> Huntington <> Seaport line, full stop. There are things about such a line that appeal to me, but the lack of Blue or Kenmore transfer really kneecaps it.
Rolling stock: with Type 10 supertrains, each Green Line consist would be able to hold ~800 passengers. I think that 6-car Red Line trains can hold ~1,000 passengers? Which means that Green Line trains at 20 tph/3 min would have a 16K/hr capacity, and Red Line trains at 15 tph/4 min would have a 15K/hr capacity. Again, that seems reasonable to me; if we believe we need the 30 tph/2 min/24K per hour capacity, then I think we're back to the idea of a standalone Huntington <> Seaport line (but that seems like overkill to me).
Supplemental frequencies along Huntington: well, soooo we could potentially solve one problem with another here. Huntington is wide enough that it could probably support a quad-track subway. And/or, Huntington will continue to have transit ROW at surface level (if only to have bus lanes for the 39). Which means
the Green Line doesn't need to be our only Huntington service. We
could basically just keep a version of today's E Line mostly in place. (You would need to do a little fussing around Back Bay/Copley Junction and at the Mass Ave/Huntington intersection, but I think it would be doable.) Or we could quad-track the new Huntington Subway and run Gold Line Seaport trains on one set of tracks and Green Line Downtown trains on the other. This would also let you address...