Logan Airport Flights and Airlines Discussion

You're waaaay late. That did not happen in a vacuum.

Vertex doesn't move to the Seaport without the Big Dig occurring. And, pray tell, how DID your bolded Drive from the Seaport to Logan in 5 minutes come about?

The TW Tunnel revolutionized vehicular access to Logan. Those who can see the macro picture see it plain as day.

This thread about the runaway success of Logan is the result of the Big Dig.


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Shmessy -- First my drive started in the parking lot of the former ManuLife / John Hancock building -- I turned onto D street and entered the Ramp to I-90 W / I-90 E Ted Williams Tunnel -- a couple of miles later [@ the speed limit] I exited to Logan

No one is denying that the TW Tunnel didn't help make the Seaport one of the most exciting urban sites in the entire US -- but remember that the Ted was completed and in use for a decade*1 before Vertex moved*2

Prior to Vertex's move the Seaport consisted of the US Federal Courthouse, Seaport Hotel and two adjacent Office Buildings + the renovated Commonwealth Pier and a whole lot of parking lots, a bunch of empty warehouses, some absolutely empty property, "No Name" on the Fish Pier and Pier 4 [a restaurant at the time]

*1
from Wikipedia on TW Tunnel
the TWT opened in 1995 it was only available to authorized commercial traffic.... In 2003, with the substantial completion of the I-90 portion of the Big Dig, the tunnel was opened to all traffic at all times

*2
from Wikipedia on Vertex
In January 2014, Vertex completed its move from Cambridge, Massachusetts to Boston, Massachusetts, and took residence in a new, $800 million complex. Located on the South Boston waterfront,
 
^How does anything you are saying disprove shmessy's statement: "Vertex doesn't move to the Seaport without the Big Dig occurring."

Access to Logan was abysmal before the big dig, and lest not forget all of the other access improvements (not related to I-90) that the big dig provided which aided getting to Logan (e.g., I-93/O'Neil/harbor tunnels interface).

Look upthread for a lively discussion on how MHT airport to the northwest lost ~3million passengers/year after the big dig was done...very likely, at least in part, because it was easier to get to Logan.

Yes, Whigh, government investment in infrastructure can make an impact on business vitality / geographic distribution of business.
 
^How does anything you are saying disprove shmessy's statement: "Vertex doesn't move to the Seaport without the Big Dig occurring."

Access to Logan was abysmal before the big dig, and lest not forget all of the other access improvements (not related to I-90) that the big dig provided which aided getting to Logan (e.g., I-93/O'Neil/harbor tunnels interface).

Look upthread for a lively discussion on how MHT airport to the northwest lost ~3million passengers/year after the big dig was done...very likely, at least in part, because it was easier to get to Logan.

Yes, Whigh, government investment in infrastructure can make an impact on business vitality / geographic distribution of business.

Of course none of these things are completely independent and its impossible to ascribe all change to one decision made at some time in the past. This is true of everything that happens. Indeed there once was a PBS Series hosted by James Burke, a Brit with a penchant for the history of science and technology called "Connections." He would start the particular episode with something obscure in history and draw a series of plausible connections to something with which everyone was familiar. I remember in particular the episode beginning with the invention of the Stirrup leading seemingly inexorably to the Atomic Bomb.

In our case the origins of the explosive growth of the Seaport are much more recent [at most a couple of hundred years ago] when filling of the mudflats near to Fort Hill began to create more City on the Shawmut Peninsular side of today's Fort Point Channel. Fast forward to the extensive filling in the late 19th Century that created the Railroad Fan Pier and Commonwealth Pier, Fish Pier, and the Boston Edison Plant, NECCO, Boston Wharf Co.. Then skip to the WWII Era that gave us the Army Base [Design & Innovation Center and Black Falcon Terminal], expansion of the Navy facilities from Charlestown to Southie, the Commonwealth Flats. Other key bits in the early / mid 20th C was the creation of the "World Shaving HQ" on land in part once owned by NECCO.

This vibrant industrial era [both in the Seaport & contemporaneously in Kendall] was followed by the decay that set in post WWII marking the Era of the Dead and Derelict Seaport [and contemporaneously Kendall] when the only reason for anyone who wasn't a fisherman or longshoreman to go to the Seaport was the Seaman's Chapel or to view the grand architecture of the Commonwealth Pier Head House.

Then finally came the gradual beginning of reuse and reconquest highlighted by Anthony Athanas' acquisition of the land that has become the Court House and Fan Pier development and the Papas family importing business. However while nothing today would have been possible without the above -- the recent pace of change is unprecedented and totally unexpected.

I wasn't around to witness the above preface to the story. However, I've watched the changes in the Seaport [and Kendall] since I was an undergraduate at MIT in the early 1970's -- and when walking around in the Seaport and much of Kendall was risky [especially at night].



The seaport in the past 50 years has experienced even more unprecedented changes than what happened just behind MIT in Kendall Square.

Technically, and Scientifically both redevelopments in the past 50 years owe their existences to:
  • Sputnik and the creation of NASA
  • JFK and the NASA Electronics Research Center which cleared the old Kendall industrial complex and then quit
  • Richard Nixon
    • Volpe Transportation Research Center -- consolation for losing NASA
    • War on Cancer -- leading to the Human Genome Project and Biotech
    • last phase of Vietnam leading to Draper Lab off Campus
  • MIT & Tech Square
    • ARPANET
    • AI Alley
    • 3rd & Bent and AT&T
    • all the land at our back door available for a song -- location, location, location
    • Microsoft
    • Google
  • Biogen
  • Genzyme
  • Novartis
  • Big Pharma, etc
  • Fidelity for several reasons


The Big Dig [as in the Tip] made a difference for people in places like Cambridge to get to Logan. The Big [as in the Ted] made a huge difference for people in places like Lexington and Newton to get to Logan No arguments there at all.

However, what was actually expected in the Seaport was stuff that took advantage of the proximity of Logan for shipping. Everyone expected there to be a proliferation of warehouses and possibly even a "Free Trade Zone" for light manufacturing and reshipping of stuff such as which says "Assembled in the USA out of Globally Sourced Components" .

No one at all expected what has happened after Vertex moved. Why Vertex moved might be ascribed to the availability of a piece of land situated in place of high visibility from Logan [a place to plant there flag unmistakably -- but access to Logan from the Seaport vs Cambridge was not the principle reason for moving a biotech trying to join the league of Big Pharma.
 
No one at all expected what has happened after Vertex moved. Why Vertex moved might be ascribed to the availability of a piece of land situated in place of high visibility from Logan [a place to plant there flag unmistakably -- but access to Logan from the Seaport vs Cambridge was not the principle reason for moving a biotech trying to join the league of Big Pharma.

Vertex moved when Menino lobbied them to be trailblazers in his new "Innovation District". The primary reason they did so was tax breaks:

http://archive.boston.com/business/...draws_cambridge_drug_firm_to_fan_pier/?page=2

Menino isn't pushing an Innovation District with tax breaks without the Big Dig improving highway access to the Seaport. I'm honestly not sure why we're even talking about Logan (or doing this on this thread).
 
Vertex moved when Menino lobbied them to be trailblazers in his new "Innovation District". The primary reason they did so was tax breaks:

http://archive.boston.com/business/...draws_cambridge_drug_firm_to_fan_pier/?page=2

Menino isn't pushing an Innovation District with tax breaks without the Big Dig improving highway access to the Seaport. I'm honestly not sure why we're even talking about Logan (or doing this on this thread).

He's running down the rabbit hole while ignoring other ruts in the grass that don't jive with the rambling point he's trying to make...

Westie, obviously we can trace the butterflies of the present to innumerable influences in the past. The Big Dig was a major influence on development in post-Dig Boston, regardless of the many others.

Now how about getting back to new service into Logan? Norwegian wasn't pulling the winter numbers to Paris they were looking for?
 
Last year Logan Airport saw 40.9 Million Passegers and is expected this year to epand by nearly 6%. So at this current trajectory, we could see abut 43 million passengers this year flying through Logan Airport. However, Delta and jetBlue are to see major expansions at Logan starting this year. Noone has really talked about this yet, but how much passenger growth do you think this will add to Logan Airport?

If Logan further expands by about 5% in 2020 in Passenger Traffic, that would lead Logan to about 45.2 Million Passengers in 2020. With all the expansions, new Delta Hub and expansion of B6... would it be true to say that will all add about 1.5 million new passengers a year to Logan in 2020 and we could see Logan expand by possibly atleast 8-10% in the year 2020 from 2019 Passenger statistics? Based on just these Domestic DL/B6 Hub additions announced recently

What do you guys think? I bring this up because it is great to think about the expansions of passenger traffic (especially when its coming from Domestic Routes). This could lead to further airline expansions (DL, B6) and bring flights to places like Lisbon or even Milan on Delta. And, more airlines could possibly commence service to Boston. I think a conservative estimate for 2019 passenger traffic will be around 44 million, and by 2020 somewhere in the ballpark of 48-49 million with all these expansions. What do you think?


PS. If you arent aware, a new BOS-LGW flight will be added on DL/VS sometime in 2020. The summer schedule should be announced sometime this fall.

PSS. I updated the Logan Airport Top 10 International Markets for 2018 on wikipedia. It hadn't been updated in over two years, so I thought Id fix that. Some bg changes came to the list including that London-Gatwick is now the 10th largest route from BOS in the international market. Paris climbed up from 5th to 3rd to report a whopping 407k passengers. Dublin increased to 4th from 5th. Reykjavik fell from 3rd to 5th, mostly due to 2018's decrease in WOW service. Dubai was the biggest faller from 6th to 8th dropping by nearly 100k passengers in just two years. Zurich fell from 10th to 11th, and disappeared from the top 10 markets mostly because of LGWs 150% increase in two years. However loads on BOS-DXB are almost 90%. Surprising. But in the upcoming years I would expect LHR to moderately grow at about 3-6% per year from high load factors, CDG will probably grow even faster at 5-7%. Dublin seems like it will also increase at that same rate, the loads are slightly low than I hoped for at about 81%. Toronto Pearson most likely will fall from 2nd to 4th, as they have declined this year even further in available seats. With WOW gone in 2019, its a no brainer that Reykjavik will slip down to 6-9th. LGW will continue success in growth, and pull upwards of 300k passengers, especially when VS/DL add that 2020 flight. With the A380 coming to MUC on Lufthansa, it ill be interesting to see if that will propel MUC into the top 10. It currently sits at about 180k passengers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan_International_Airport#statistics
The Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1p_PuNk0i4yqsZNsfYCIYGibqjKZTjLHB/view (Very Interesting document here with flight data at BOS)
 
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Me Again, I dont mean to double-post but a flight addition was announced today from Logan Airport. Frontier Airlines announced seasonal service from Boston to Miami starting on November 14th.

Interesting route to add since AA already operates 5-8x time a day and Delta is soon starting Miami flights...
 
What are the top 10 markets for Boston that do not currently offer a non-stop?

How much of DL/B6 growth is going to be:
- Add flights in their existing markets
- Add flights in the other guys markets
- Add to competing hubs (incl Europe)
- Add to truly new spokes
 
Back to the topic of Logan Flight Additions ... a subtraction of note ... Norwegian to go seasonal on Boston-CDG.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/285549/norwegian-w19-us-service-adjustment/

This is not a shocker. After Norwegian's ill advised rapid expansion, they've had major financial struggles (to the point that rumors have consistently swirled about their collapse) and are shifting their focus to profitability. So it makes sense that LGW will remain their only year-round route. Frankly, Norwegian's premium economy is one of my favorite TATL values, so I'd hate to see it leave.

Me Again, I dont mean to double-post but a flight addition was announced today from Logan Airport. Frontier Airlines announced seasonal service from Boston to Miami starting on November 14th.

Interesting route to add since AA already operates 5-8x time a day and Delta is soon starting Miami flights...

I don't think they're going to be competing with AA or even Delta all that much. It's more of a competitor to Spirit's FLL route. AA serves a lot of O&D traffic to Miami, but it also uses its Miami hub as a connecting point for the Caribbean and Latin America. Frontier won't touch the connecting traffic, and I doubt it'll put much of a dent in AA's O&D traffic. Delta is interesting because it's also going to largely be O&D, but there's a large/growing base of Delta loyalists in BOS who won't touch Frontier.
 
From Q42018 numbers posted on airliners from DOT data...top 10 unserved airports, assuming this includes Domestic only, with PDEW numbers:

San Antonio, 192
Louisville, 130
Memphis, 118
Albuquerque, 116
Omaha, 92
Madison, 89
Tucson, 87
Oklahoma City, 85
Grand Rapids, 85
Birmingham AL, 84

Same thread also reports Reno and Greensboro as high % increases in Boston passengers (for unserved cities) so they would be significant also.
 
From Q42018 numbers posted on airliners from DOT data...top 10 unserved airports, assuming this includes Domestic only, with PDEW numbers:

San Antonio, 192
Louisville, 130
Memphis, 118
Albuquerque, 116
Omaha, 92
Madison, 89
Tucson, 87
Oklahoma City, 85
Grand Rapids, 85
Birmingham AL, 84

Same thread also reports Reno and Greensboro as high % increases in Boston passengers (for unserved cities) so they would be significant also.

Based this, seems like SA would make a great A220 route. Same for Louisville and Memphis. This distance of ABQ would make it tough to justify unless you were consistently filling paid F seats.
 
I don't think they're going to be competing with AA or even Delta all that much. It's more of a competitor to Spirit's FLL route. AA serves a lot of O&D traffic to Miami, but it also uses its Miami hub as a connecting point for the Caribbean and Latin America. Frontier won't touch the connecting traffic, and I doubt it'll put much of a dent in AA's O&D traffic. Delta is interesting because it's also going to largely be O&D, but there's a large/growing base of Delta loyalists in BOS who won't touch Frontier.

Yeah definetly right about the connecting passengers. Im just a little paranoid because AA is my airline and DL/B6 have severely up gauged DCA, PHL, LGA, JFK and ORD flights. :s ... Now MIA on DL poses a threat. AA downturned from 121 to 98 flights (Peak Day) from Boston since the US Merger. Would hate to see AA shrink even further in BOS. Its bringing back memories of 2006-2012 when AA shrunk off their Boston focus because of B6 ironically (Going from 110 to 34 flights a day even though most of the flights were profitable). Love these expansions by both Delta and JetBlue, but I dont want to see AA struggle. jetBlue and Delta just have a far superior product imho. But hey, maybe im just overreacting.
 
From Q42018 numbers posted on airliners from DOT data...top 10 unserved airports, assuming this includes Domestic only, with PDEW numbers:

San Antonio, 192
Louisville, 130
Memphis, 118
Albuquerque, 116
Omaha, 92
Madison, 89
Tucson, 87
Oklahoma City, 85
Grand Rapids, 85
Birmingham AL, 84

Same thread also reports Reno and Greensboro as high % increases in Boston passengers (for unserved cities) so they would be significant also.

Is this actually how Delta opens new routes?
 
Me Again, I dont mean to double-post but a flight addition was announced today from Logan Airport. Frontier Airlines announced seasonal service from Boston to Miami starting on November 14th.

Interesting route to add since AA already operates 5-8x time a day and Delta is soon starting Miami flights...

Boston to South Florida is a very large market during the winter. It can handle multiple carriers.
 
Yeah definetly right about the connecting passengers. Im just a little paranoid because AA is my airline and DL/B6 have severely up gauged DCA, PHL, LGA, JFK and ORD flights. :s ... Now MIA on DL poses a threat. AA downturned from 121 to 98 flights (Peak Day) from Boston since the US Merger. Would hate to see AA shrink even further in BOS. Its bringing back memories of 2006-2012 when AA shrunk off their Boston focus because of B6 ironically (Going from 110 to 34 flights a day even though most of the flights were profitable). Love these expansions by both Delta and JetBlue, but I dont want to see AA struggle. jetBlue and Delta just have a far superior product imho. But hey, maybe im just overreacting.

I think BOS is big enough to have room for all of them. And I believe that BOS-MIA is pretty stable. We'll see though.
 
Based this, seems like SA would make a great A220 route. Same for Louisville and Memphis. This distance of ABQ would make it tough to justify unless you were consistently filling paid F seats.

Hard to justify both SAT and AUS as the distance between the Airports is about the same as the distance between BOS and Manchester NH [MHT]

if you have a choice as an airline would you rather:
AUS
from Wiki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austin–Bergstrom_International_Airport
The airport is the busiest in Texas outside the Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston metropolitan areas. Currently, there are over 510 arrivals and departures on the typical weekday to 76 destinations in North America and Europe.
Passengers [2018] 15,819,912

or SAT
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Antonio_International_Airport
SAT averages 260 daily departures and arrivals at its 24 gates, which serve 12 airlines flying non-stop to 53 destinations in the US and Mexico
Passengers [2018] 10,044,411

Business-wise the strongest connections between Boston and San Antonio are:
  • Sports at Pro-level
  • Air Force related
  • Medical Army and UT Health Sciences
  • Gateway to South Texas

The strongest connections between Austin and Boston
  • Information Technology in many aspects
  • Semiconductors
  • Venture Capitalism
  • State Government related including Texas School Books [centralized purchasing]
  • Oil and Gas -- may seem surprising to some
    • Schlumberger Research HQ and Shell Research outpost are in Cambridge
    • Boston has a lot of investment activity associated with Oil and Gas
    • Austin is HQ of the strangely-named Texas Railroad Commission [regulator of all things Petro in Texas]
  • Universities and Tech
  • Entertainment
 
Is this actually how Delta opens new routes?
When fighting to grow a hub against a direct competitor*, yes. The most obvious place to add a truly-new spoke is in the next-largest market** not served by a nonstop. And to do this, you add the fewest number of the smallest plane possible to soak up the local demand, and hope that you get a kicker from either higher fares, share shift by loyalty/corporate fliers, or connecting passengers.

But if you can get away with it, you'll add flights in not-new-to-BOS markets by putting a spoke into the other guys hub or just up the frequency in a particularly rich market you already control. (JetBlue just re-aligned here by pulling out of IAD and DCA-xxx markets throwing those planes into DCA-BOS...but that logic has now run its course, as far as I can tell).

But if the goal is to get to 200 flights (and the connecting power and local market power that come with it) there are going to need to be some feasible new spokes.

*which we don't see much of these days, with most carriers having spent the last 10 years pulling down small hubs (CLE, CVG, MEM) to redirect those connections to growing their mega-fortress hubs (DEN, PHL, DTW, ATL)
**measured by $, but PDEWs are a good proxy
 
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you have a choice as an airline would you rather..

..have a local monopoly


BOS-AUS is already competitive, flown by both DL & B6, and maybe B6 will lay on an additional frequency on its way to 200 dailies. But that wasn't what we were discussing.

I asked a question about which next spoke B6 or DL should try to add, not which was the objectively better/larger city pair, which AUS obviously is, but that's obviously why it is already a nonstop market from BOS
 

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