I agree that the way to do a Mattapan-style service would be to wait until the Green Line reaches Sullivan, and then convert the commuter rail track(s) to hook into the greater LRT system.
That being said, the core concept -- converting the Malden-Reading stretch into a shuttle service -- is a separate question all together. Converting to LRT adds the overhead (literally) of a fair amount of infrastructure, but you can discuss the operational questions using a different framework. For example, using River Line-style DMUs, or just reserving a couple of diesel sets from the existing commuter rail fleet.
To me, the key question is whether this would lead to an improvement in service overall. And that question rides on two things:
1) Can the Orange Line take all of those riders?
Right now, almost certainly not. As you say, in some future case where an OL-to-Reading extension has been built out (complete with fleet size increase), it could work from that perspective, purely in terms of seating capacity.
2) Can overall trip times be reduced? If not, can frequencies be significantly increased so as to offset?
I don't see how trip times can be reduced. Maaaaaybe you can shave a little bit of time off of the Malden-Reading stretch thanks to shorter dwells, but I doubt it'll be much.
As for Malden-North Station -- right now (as in 3pm during a pandemic), Google is estimating 12 minutes on the Orange Line, which is actually roughly comparable to the Commuter Rail's scheduled 11 minute run. And, if you factor in walking time from the commuter rail platform, it's possible that the Orange Line is slightly faster.
But when you look at the estimated time during the morning peak, the Orange Line's estimated travel time increases to 15 minutes, at which point it seems hard to compete.
All the more so when you consider the transfer time at Malden Center (or Oak Grove) -- you'd have to rebuild Oak Grove to enable a cross-platform transfer, and it would be impossible at Malden Center to do the cross-platform inbound transfer.
Finally, you'd also need to guarantee a timed transfer in Malden -- get off the shuttle, an Orange Line train is ready there for you. So that's a non-trivial operational complication.
As for frequencies... maybe? A large stretch of Malden-Reading is double-tracked, which is then hamstrung by the single track that basically runs all the way from Malden to BET (with one passer near Assembly). So you probably could increase frequencies north of Malden if you are no longer worried about the terminal zone.
But F-Line is right -- with the grade crossings, you wouldn't want to have service running every 2 or 3 minutes. My wild guess is that the highest you'd want is 10 minute headways.
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So travel times will likely be slightly worse at best. Frequencies can probably be significantly improved, but hard to say if it's worth the trade-off of a transfer and longer travel times.
Would it be possible to improve frequencies elsewhere on the system by reducing the rolling stock needed for Reading? I don't know, but guessing based on the timetable, I don't get the sense that there are too many trains tied up serving Reading right now -- so not too many sets available to redistribute. And, if you are using existing rolling stock to run the shuttle service, then it's probably a wash.
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All of that being said, one interesting idea would be to run a supplementary shuttle service, especially off-peak. Off-peak's headways are, like, two hours. So, in that case, if a shuttle service allowed you to bring that to, say, 30-minute headways, that might be workable even with the transfer.
Supplementing peak service would be trickier. You'd have to reactivate the Oak Grove platform because you'd need to get the shuttle into the single track zone, offloading passengers, and then reverse back out as quickly as possible so as to not block the way (Malden Center is too far). My wild estimate says that you'd be blocking the way for a solid 20 minutes.
So, maybe it'd be worthwhile for a couple of one-offs during peak? There are admittedly some gaps in the peak frequencies where current headways exceed 30 minutes; if you could use supplementary shuttles to boost frequencies within 128 to 30-min or better all day, that could be a first step toward shifting those communities toward a rapid transit mindset.
But, -- to be honest -- it's probably just as likely to blow up in everyone's face and sour the milk for a generation.
That being said, the core concept -- converting the Malden-Reading stretch into a shuttle service -- is a separate question all together. Converting to LRT adds the overhead (literally) of a fair amount of infrastructure, but you can discuss the operational questions using a different framework. For example, using River Line-style DMUs, or just reserving a couple of diesel sets from the existing commuter rail fleet.
To me, the key question is whether this would lead to an improvement in service overall. And that question rides on two things:
1) Can the Orange Line take all of those riders?
Right now, almost certainly not. As you say, in some future case where an OL-to-Reading extension has been built out (complete with fleet size increase), it could work from that perspective, purely in terms of seating capacity.
2) Can overall trip times be reduced? If not, can frequencies be significantly increased so as to offset?
I don't see how trip times can be reduced. Maaaaaybe you can shave a little bit of time off of the Malden-Reading stretch thanks to shorter dwells, but I doubt it'll be much.
As for Malden-North Station -- right now (as in 3pm during a pandemic), Google is estimating 12 minutes on the Orange Line, which is actually roughly comparable to the Commuter Rail's scheduled 11 minute run. And, if you factor in walking time from the commuter rail platform, it's possible that the Orange Line is slightly faster.
But when you look at the estimated time during the morning peak, the Orange Line's estimated travel time increases to 15 minutes, at which point it seems hard to compete.
All the more so when you consider the transfer time at Malden Center (or Oak Grove) -- you'd have to rebuild Oak Grove to enable a cross-platform transfer, and it would be impossible at Malden Center to do the cross-platform inbound transfer.
Finally, you'd also need to guarantee a timed transfer in Malden -- get off the shuttle, an Orange Line train is ready there for you. So that's a non-trivial operational complication.
As for frequencies... maybe? A large stretch of Malden-Reading is double-tracked, which is then hamstrung by the single track that basically runs all the way from Malden to BET (with one passer near Assembly). So you probably could increase frequencies north of Malden if you are no longer worried about the terminal zone.
But F-Line is right -- with the grade crossings, you wouldn't want to have service running every 2 or 3 minutes. My wild guess is that the highest you'd want is 10 minute headways.
---
So travel times will likely be slightly worse at best. Frequencies can probably be significantly improved, but hard to say if it's worth the trade-off of a transfer and longer travel times.
Would it be possible to improve frequencies elsewhere on the system by reducing the rolling stock needed for Reading? I don't know, but guessing based on the timetable, I don't get the sense that there are too many trains tied up serving Reading right now -- so not too many sets available to redistribute. And, if you are using existing rolling stock to run the shuttle service, then it's probably a wash.
---
All of that being said, one interesting idea would be to run a supplementary shuttle service, especially off-peak. Off-peak's headways are, like, two hours. So, in that case, if a shuttle service allowed you to bring that to, say, 30-minute headways, that might be workable even with the transfer.
Supplementing peak service would be trickier. You'd have to reactivate the Oak Grove platform because you'd need to get the shuttle into the single track zone, offloading passengers, and then reverse back out as quickly as possible so as to not block the way (Malden Center is too far). My wild estimate says that you'd be blocking the way for a solid 20 minutes.
So, maybe it'd be worthwhile for a couple of one-offs during peak? There are admittedly some gaps in the peak frequencies where current headways exceed 30 minutes; if you could use supplementary shuttles to boost frequencies within 128 to 30-min or better all day, that could be a first step toward shifting those communities toward a rapid transit mindset.
But, -- to be honest -- it's probably just as likely to blow up in everyone's face and sour the milk for a generation.