Can they run a South Station-Back Bay shuttle on the B&A to complement more service over Fairmount without fouling the Worcester mainline?
Future :15 service clock-facing service to Framingham + 8-10 future Amtrak B&A round-trips leaves no room for turning trains for 10-15 minutes at a time on the 2 B&A tracks at Back Bay. And the NEC side was already rejected as too busy
today, nevermind in a Regional Rail universe, when they modeled the BCEC/Track 61-Back Bay dinky back during the Patrick Administration.
One problem, coming from personal experience, is that the required transfer at Readville has been an unmitigated disaster for Franklin line riders going to or from Back Bay/Ruggles. The T’s operations coordination is nonexistent, so if a Franklin train scheduled to arrive just before a Providence train arrives just after, the Franklin line riders are SOL.
I agree that some express service is the best possible mitigation, but the reality of a 70 minute, 25 mile ride that doesnt even go to Ruggles/Back Bay, is not that potential riders would prefer 30min service, it’s that at that point they give up on the T and take their car.
Not all Forge Park trains need to vacate the NEC. It's just that the T's own official Rail Vision modeling doesn't see :30 clock-facing Forge Park slots working
all the time via that alignment. It does work at :30 clock-facing all the time via Fairmount because there's no Amtrak in the mix chewing up select clock-facing slots. TransitMatters, they of oft ludicrously hyper-aggressive Regional Rail traffic modeling,
also had enough doubt in its Franklin Line modernization report that it could be done reliably all the time via the NEC to leave it an either/or choice whether Forge Park took an NEC or Fairmount alignment, coaching it in a lot of squishy "it depends". So you can probably slice the daily Forge Park schedule with some fairly significant--possibly even majority--number of all-local NEC slots paired with some fairly significant--possibly minority--number of semi-expressed Fairmount slots to provide an adequate spread and keep everyone happy. It'll take some degree of coordination, but it's doable especially with Providence and Stoughton/SCR Phase II moving to likeminded clock-facing :30 slots to make the Readville transfers a lot more predictable. Show Up And Wait service every :30 minutes on the same clock position is Regional Rail's
big game changer and big ridership generator. Data exists the whole world over that you go to a predictably frequent clockface and the ridership stampedes to the mode. They are not going to distort the focus on that big game changer for one edge case and bob-and-weave a Forge Park slot at :22 on the clock here, and :54 on the clock there, and :13 on the clock there when Amtrak openings permit. That meandering wobble of clock times is what ends up suppressing the ridership. Far more riders prefer :30 service on-the-button
every single time than they prefer a one-seat to a particular stop every single time. The task ahead for maximizing ridership is thus finding the right mix of :30 frequencies on-the-clockface
every time mixed with a Ruggles or Back Bay one-seat
enough of the time. Back Bay or Ruggles every time is not in the cards, though. As I said before, it's not even in the cards every time
today or has been for the past 3+ decades. Norfolk County riders will adjust; they already have.