Massachusetts 2026 Congressional elections

F-Line to Dudley said:
www.wbur.org

New poll shows Ed Markey with a big lead over Seth Moulton in Massachusetts Senate primary

A new poll released Monday by WCVB and UMass Amherst shows Sen. Ed Markey with a nearly 30 percentage point lead over Rep. Seth Moulton among voters who plan to cast ballots in the upcoming Massachusetts primary.
www.wbur.org www.wbur.org

New polling in the Markey-Moulton race, from UMass-Amherst. It's...not...looking like much of a race. 60-32 Markey among likely voters with 2 weeks to go before the primary. The large bloc of undecideds in earlier polling have, predictably, started paying attention to the race and are coming home.
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I think the Undecideds have heard (mostly credible) reports about Moulton voting with the republicans a few times - which - in this current political moment is really just career suicide as a Dem.
 
as02155 said:
I think the Undecideds have heard (mostly credible) reports about Moulton voting with the republicans a few times - which - in this current political moment is really just career suicide as a Dem.
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I don't know if it's so much of that as:

1) Moulton has the personality of dry sandpaper, so it's an uphill battle to try to connect with voters on anything he may be passionate about. Markey is an old pro at (superficially or not) espousing rousing passion for a cause, and with an electorate like 2026's that across-the-board seems to heavily value fighters the contrast between the two's mannerisms was just too much to overcome. Joe Kennedy got within 9 points of Markey six years ago in part because his personality was much more a match. Moulton was at a disadvantage here from the start.

2) Markey's been hitting Moulton much harder on his ties to various and sundry PAC money than Moulton's been hitting Markey on the age issue, despite the age issue being a potentially critical vulnerability. Moulton needed the age issue to land decisively to have any shot, and it just didn't land. He actually ended up playing a tad too much defense on the PAC issue at the expense of going on better offense. As their policy differences are not *that* large, it was the only way he could define himself. And he just didn't accomplish it.

So I don't think it's as much about Moulton's negatives weighing him down as the positives not boosting him up. Massachusetts tends to start paying attention to its elections in about July or August, so now they're tuning in, not seeing a compelling reason to switch their fighters, and the undecideds simply came home to Markey en masse.
 
Was contacted a few times by Markey folks, never by Moulton folks. I was very ready to vote for not-Markey this cycle but Moulton just isn't the guy to do it.
 

More polls this week:
Public Policy Polling: Markey 52-22 among likely voters
Suffolk U: Markey 52-38, likely voters

Moulton was running about 9-12 points behind this Spring with very large number of undecideds, but all 3 of this week's polls now agree with each other that the undecideds are breaking heavily in Markey's favor as the state electorate starts paying attention.


Also notable that this election has seen far, far less spent on ads than the 2020 Markey-Kennedy primary. Moulton has (predictably) the dark-money advantage on third-party attack ads, but overall not a lot of punches have been thrown over the airwaves compared to the last cycle. As per my previous post, Moulton's largely wasted the opportunity to define the narrative here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2089728026862862842
 
I have received a bunch of mailers asking for Markey to support a congressional term limits amendment. I think that the source PAC has already gotten in trouble for them earlier. I assume they are aligned with Moulton.
 
More I think about it, Moulton might have done himself a favor.

DC especially is going to be an epic shitshow the next 2 years.
 
I voted for Moulton using my absentee ballot a few weeks ago.

As I stated earlier, he's about as charismatic as a fence post, but I'm not thrilled about another octogenarian in the Senate. From the polling, it looks like I'm gonna be forced to vote for the 80-year-old...sigh
 
Moulton's cynical age shtick could not work because old people vote at a much higher rate. I am glad he is going to lose because calling people grandpa has no meaning outside of social media
 
Scott said:
Moulton's cynical age shtick could not work because old people vote at a much higher rate. I am glad he is going to lose because calling people grandpa only works on social media
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I mean it's a pretty good bet that Markey will step down and retire at some point during this new term.
 
jklo said:
I mean it's a pretty good bet that Markey will step down and retire at some point during this new term.
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That's not a default given. Somebody has to make that case that voting for Markey is throwing a term away due to his age. Moulton's had all year to make that case. He's largely failed to do so. Advertising is way, way down over the competitive Senate primary 6 years ago, Moulton spent too much time on the defensive in the debates and not enough on offense, the press coverage has been moribund (despite the Globe's longstanding rep for trying to manufacture horse races out of slim pickings), and the challenger's somewhat scattershot messaging has failed to strike any chord in undecideds as the state traditionally wakes up in mid/late-summer and starts paying attention to elections. Given lack of a compelling alternative, the droves will traditionally stick to the incumbent regardless of baggage.

That's exactly what's happening here. Moulton didn't define a more promising alternative, and that's why he's down a fairly consistent 30 in the last pre-primary polling with the number of available undecideds dwindling too fast to put any significant dent in the deficit. He had the opportunity to do something, because the age issue is what is is, and squandered it. This is supposed to be a guy who runs his own longstanding PAC designed to make compelling cases to get veterans elected to office, which entails some kind of self-competence at campaigning and delivering a clear and compelling message. He hasn't shown that competence in the largest campaign of his own life.
 
For me the risk is a 2010 fiasco all over again. Recall that when Ted Kennedy died and Coakley lost the special election to Scott Brown it meant Obama went from 60 senators to 59, losing his filibuster-proof majority. If Markey dies and there's an off year special election in like 2029 with a D president and a tight 50-50 senate (all of which are very plausible at this point) there's a risk of low turnout flipping a narrow senate majority. Goodbye nominations and senate approvals. Not to make it ageism, but people in their 80s die unexpectedly all the time, and it's hubristic to think that you're somehow different. See also at least one SCOTUS justice who didn't leave when the getting was good...

So, yes, personally I'd rather have someone who has a reliable seat for the long run, while also mapping 90-95% on bog standard D issues. Moulton was the easy choice when thinking about these tail risks.
 
Justbuildit said:
For me the risk is a 2010 fiasco all over again. Recall that when Ted Kennedy died and Coakley lost the special election to Scott Brown it meant Obama went from 60 senators to 59, losing his filibuster-proof majority. If Markey dies and there's an off year special election in like 2029 with a D president and a tight 50-50 senate (all of which are very plausible at this point) there's a risk of low turnout flipping a narrow senate majority. Goodbye nominations and senate approvals. Not to make it ageism, but people in their 80s die unexpectedly all the time, and it's hubristic to think that you're somehow different. See also at least one SCOTUS justice who didn't leave when the getting was good...

So, yes, personally I'd rather have someone who has a reliable seat for the long run, while also mapping 90-95% on bog standard D issues. Moulton was the easy choice when thinking about these tail risks.
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Who in Massachusetts GOP politics has a chance of flipping even a low turnout statewide election??? The state party is so MAGA-pilled now it's disowned even Charlie Baker, the only guy who's been able to actually do it in the last dozen years. I don't think a special election is an especially high risk for party control the way the opposition is running itself completely into the ground to extinction levels.

Again...Moulton had a full year to make a case for himself on the age issue and completely, utterly failed to raise a ripple about it. That's not because Markey wasn't vulnerable on the issue, it's because Moulton ran a really lousy campaign. The recent polling shows very small quantities of undecideds left for the taking. That means most people have long since made up their mind on Markey's negatives vs. Moulton's positives. Moulton made it an "easy choice" alright...just not the choice that favored him.
 
Justbuildit said:
For me the risk is a 2010 fiasco all over again. Recall that when Ted Kennedy died and Coakley lost the special election to Scott Brown it meant Obama went from 60 senators to 59, losing his filibuster-proof majority.
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Moulton didn't try to make that the point of his age complaint, though. He didn't run on the message that he could only beat a Republican as an incumbent. And honestly, what politician in their right mind would stake out that position?

Also, subsequent to 2010, the MA GOP has become heavily in thrall of the MAGA movement. No Republican who can win would get the nomination.
 
F-Line to Dudley said:
Somebody has to make that case that voting for Markey is throwing a term away due to his age.
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Who says anything about throwing a term away?

I think what's going to end up happening is that Markey will step down and the Dem Establishment will hand pick a successor... and that person will end up being the Senator for some time without any real challenge. They were never going to want Moulton to be that guy.
 
HenryAlan said:
Moulton didn't try to make that the point of his age complaint, though. He didn't run on the message that he could only beat a Republican as an incumbent. And honestly, what politician in their right mind would stake out that position?

Also, subsequent to 2010, the MA GOP has become heavily in thrall of the MAGA movement. No Republican who can win would get the nomination.
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Again, this is a tail risk, but in the scenario I'm thinking of, post-Trump, I could very easily see Shortsleeve-esque Baker-ites come back to the party as "sane centrist" type candidates that are no longer subservient to MAGA. Off year special elections are weird and I wouldn't want to put a 50-50 Senate in the balance because of that. And no, he didn't run on that message, that's a personal conclusion based on the two people running. I personally thinking voting for people who are likely to resign or die in office is a bad decision and it should be avoided if there are plausible alternatives.
 
Justbuildit said:
I personally thinking voting for people who are likely to resign or die in office is a bad decision and it should be avoided if there are plausible alternatives.
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I don't completely disagree with this, but Moulton didn't do what it took to become a plausible alternative. Being the right age as the main qualification doesn't make him the right choice. But then, he really gave us very little other than that as a basis for selection.
 
Honestly, Markey is a nice guy, a actual people-lover. A fairly unusual one in that he's got the maverick/outsider thing going as well as a lot of personal positive buzz just from simpler one-to-one interactions. I suspect that anyone with a similar policy profile is going to have a hard time filling his shoes on the charisma side. (or at least a level of charisma that will not be affected by suburban and Western/Central Mass racial animus.)
 
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