US finds big drop in Hub population
By Michael Levenson, Globe Staff | June 21, 2006
Boston lost 30,107 residents in the first half of this decade, a precipitous drop that ranked the city among the biggest population losers of any major municipality in the country, according to US Census Bureau estimates to be released today.
The loss represented a 5.1 percent fall from the city's population of 589,141 residents in 2000, the bureau said. It was the seventh highest percentage decrease among large US cities; Cincinnati had the steepest drop from 2000 to 2005, losing 6.8 percent, followed by Detroit, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Flint, Mich.
The population figures drew a sharp reaction from Mayor Thomas M. Menino, who disputed the estimates, but also alarmed some outside observers.
``If we don't grow, we're going to become increasingly small and marginal in the world economy," said Edward L. Glaeser, a professor of economics at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. ``It may be that we become more of a boutique town catering to a smaller number of elites. I don't like that vision, but it's not a vision I think everyone despises."
In Massachusetts, Boston lost the most population of any municipality. After Boston, the municipalities to lose the most residents in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2005 were Somerville, which lost 2,642; Chelsea, which lost 2,562; Medford, which lost 2,115; and Lowell, which lost 2,056.
During the same period, however, Massachusetts gained a total of 49,638 residents, inching up to nearly 6.4 million residents, the Census Bureau said. Earlier this year, the Census reported that between 2000 and 2004, Massachusetts experienced an average annual exodus of 42,402 people. That figure is in part offset by new migrants and births, so that the net population actually increased in the first half of the decade.
Worcester gained the most of any Bay State community, adding 3,250 residents. Plymouth gained the second most, adding 3,222, followed by Peabody, which added 3,110, and Quincy, which added 2,225.
Menino challenged the Census Bureau's methodology, saying its estimates vastly undercount immigrants, people living in public housing, and students living in dormitories. He cited figures that he said showed a city on the rise: Between 2000 and 2004, Boston built 2,900 new housing units, he said, and had 3,600 more units under construction last year. The vacancy rate for downtown office space is now 9.8 percent, the lowest rate since 2002, he said.
``I don't see any doom and gloom in this city," Menino said in an interview yesterday. ``I see all upward growth. I see new jobs being created, so I don't know where they get the doom and gloom coming out of the census department. . . . There's a lot of flexibility in those numbers, and the census always has a history of undercounting."
Annual census estimates are different from the door-to-door count that is conducted every 10 years.
The estimates begin with an estimate of a county's population, based on birth and death records, change of address forms from IRS tax records, an annual mail-in survey intended in part to count immigrants, and tallies of a county's housing units built and demolished, according to Greg Harper, a Census Bureau demographer. Then the figures are divided by city and town. In 2000, the estimates for municipalities of more than 100,000 people differed only about 4 percent from the door-to-door census conducted that year.
``We do believe that the estimates are as best as they can be with the data out," Harper said.
But Boston officials insisted that the way the Census Bureau estimates the number of housing units, in particular, fails to take into account that the city rehabilitates many of its old buildings, rather than demolish them. In an example cited in a Boston Redevelopment Authority memo faulting Census Bureau methodology, the agency said the census estimates would, for example, fail to note the recent conversion of an old Stop and Shop bakery on Causeway Street into 108 units of new housing.
``Boston, in particular, is especially vulnerable to these technical or methodological errors," said Michael D. Goodman, director of economic and public policy research at the Donahue Institute at the University of Massachusetts, who has independently researched census estimates. ``This is an issue that may well be overstating the decline in Greater Boston."
The data released yesterday also showed population changes between July 1, 2004 and July 1, 2005. Boston lost 8,626 people during that period, the most of any municipality in Massachusetts. Peabody gained the most of any community in the state, adding 975 residents. Overall, the state lost 8,639 residents during that year, the Census Bureau said.
In May, a Globe survey of 524 people who left Massachusetts last year showed the top reasons people gave for moving was a better job, followed by the cost of housing, family ties, and the weather. A majority of those surveyed also reported they were very satisfied with life in their new state and would not move back.
Economists said that the high cost of housing in Boston, compared with other US regions, is one of the main reasons people are leaving the city for more affordable housing outside the state.
At the same time, in a less widely noted trend, the costs appear to be pushing some residents from Boston, Somerville, and Chelsea into communities around Worcester, where housing is cheaper and easier to build.
``Here's an area which is close to Boston, it has great attractions, and it's cheaper," said Barry Bluestone, director of the Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University.
Mayor Timothy P. Murray of Worcester attributed his city's estimated population gain to three changes that he said make the city more affordable and attractive to Boston-area workers. The number of housing permits in Worcester has gone up recently, a new road opened from the Massachusetts Turnpike to the city's downtown, and the number of commuter rail trips to Boston has increased from six to 10. The city now has enough demand to support 12 to 15 round trips, he said.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/ma...06/06/21/us_finds_big_drop_in_hub_population/
By Michael Levenson, Globe Staff | June 21, 2006
Boston lost 30,107 residents in the first half of this decade, a precipitous drop that ranked the city among the biggest population losers of any major municipality in the country, according to US Census Bureau estimates to be released today.
The loss represented a 5.1 percent fall from the city's population of 589,141 residents in 2000, the bureau said. It was the seventh highest percentage decrease among large US cities; Cincinnati had the steepest drop from 2000 to 2005, losing 6.8 percent, followed by Detroit, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Flint, Mich.
The population figures drew a sharp reaction from Mayor Thomas M. Menino, who disputed the estimates, but also alarmed some outside observers.
``If we don't grow, we're going to become increasingly small and marginal in the world economy," said Edward L. Glaeser, a professor of economics at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. ``It may be that we become more of a boutique town catering to a smaller number of elites. I don't like that vision, but it's not a vision I think everyone despises."
In Massachusetts, Boston lost the most population of any municipality. After Boston, the municipalities to lose the most residents in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2005 were Somerville, which lost 2,642; Chelsea, which lost 2,562; Medford, which lost 2,115; and Lowell, which lost 2,056.
During the same period, however, Massachusetts gained a total of 49,638 residents, inching up to nearly 6.4 million residents, the Census Bureau said. Earlier this year, the Census reported that between 2000 and 2004, Massachusetts experienced an average annual exodus of 42,402 people. That figure is in part offset by new migrants and births, so that the net population actually increased in the first half of the decade.
Worcester gained the most of any Bay State community, adding 3,250 residents. Plymouth gained the second most, adding 3,222, followed by Peabody, which added 3,110, and Quincy, which added 2,225.
Menino challenged the Census Bureau's methodology, saying its estimates vastly undercount immigrants, people living in public housing, and students living in dormitories. He cited figures that he said showed a city on the rise: Between 2000 and 2004, Boston built 2,900 new housing units, he said, and had 3,600 more units under construction last year. The vacancy rate for downtown office space is now 9.8 percent, the lowest rate since 2002, he said.
``I don't see any doom and gloom in this city," Menino said in an interview yesterday. ``I see all upward growth. I see new jobs being created, so I don't know where they get the doom and gloom coming out of the census department. . . . There's a lot of flexibility in those numbers, and the census always has a history of undercounting."
Annual census estimates are different from the door-to-door count that is conducted every 10 years.
The estimates begin with an estimate of a county's population, based on birth and death records, change of address forms from IRS tax records, an annual mail-in survey intended in part to count immigrants, and tallies of a county's housing units built and demolished, according to Greg Harper, a Census Bureau demographer. Then the figures are divided by city and town. In 2000, the estimates for municipalities of more than 100,000 people differed only about 4 percent from the door-to-door census conducted that year.
``We do believe that the estimates are as best as they can be with the data out," Harper said.
But Boston officials insisted that the way the Census Bureau estimates the number of housing units, in particular, fails to take into account that the city rehabilitates many of its old buildings, rather than demolish them. In an example cited in a Boston Redevelopment Authority memo faulting Census Bureau methodology, the agency said the census estimates would, for example, fail to note the recent conversion of an old Stop and Shop bakery on Causeway Street into 108 units of new housing.
``Boston, in particular, is especially vulnerable to these technical or methodological errors," said Michael D. Goodman, director of economic and public policy research at the Donahue Institute at the University of Massachusetts, who has independently researched census estimates. ``This is an issue that may well be overstating the decline in Greater Boston."
The data released yesterday also showed population changes between July 1, 2004 and July 1, 2005. Boston lost 8,626 people during that period, the most of any municipality in Massachusetts. Peabody gained the most of any community in the state, adding 975 residents. Overall, the state lost 8,639 residents during that year, the Census Bureau said.
In May, a Globe survey of 524 people who left Massachusetts last year showed the top reasons people gave for moving was a better job, followed by the cost of housing, family ties, and the weather. A majority of those surveyed also reported they were very satisfied with life in their new state and would not move back.
Economists said that the high cost of housing in Boston, compared with other US regions, is one of the main reasons people are leaving the city for more affordable housing outside the state.
At the same time, in a less widely noted trend, the costs appear to be pushing some residents from Boston, Somerville, and Chelsea into communities around Worcester, where housing is cheaper and easier to build.
``Here's an area which is close to Boston, it has great attractions, and it's cheaper," said Barry Bluestone, director of the Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University.
Mayor Timothy P. Murray of Worcester attributed his city's estimated population gain to three changes that he said make the city more affordable and attractive to Boston-area workers. The number of housing permits in Worcester has gone up recently, a new road opened from the Massachusetts Turnpike to the city's downtown, and the number of commuter rail trips to Boston has increased from six to 10. The city now has enough demand to support 12 to 15 round trips, he said.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/ma...06/06/21/us_finds_big_drop_in_hub_population/
