Boston Population Trends & Discussion

[Blackbird]

YOY 2012-2015 Boston saw an average increase of ~10-14k people a year. From 2016 to 2017 the increase was 8k, and from 2017 to 2018 the increase was 3.5k, and from 2018 to 2019 it was under 1.5k

Boston's Population 2010-2019 per the Census: https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-total-cities-and-towns.html

621,048

630,505

642,955

653,002

662,855

670,491

679,848

687,788

691,147

692,600

I think I might have found a correlation: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/tabl...id=ACSDP5Y2010.DP04&moe=true&hidePreview=true

year	2010​	2011​	2012​	2013​	2014​	2015​	2016​	2017​	2018​	2019​
median gross rent	$1,199​	$1,238​	$1,265​	$1,281​	$1,298​	$1,320​	$1,369​	$1,445​	$1,539​	$1,620​
median value of owner-occupied housing units	$395,200​	$381,900​	$374,700​	$371,000​	$379,500​	$393,600​	$423,200​	$455,100​	$487,300​	$532,700​
median owner costs with a mortgage	$2,332​	$2,343​	$2,313​	$2,265​	$2,255​	$2,223​	$2,243​	$2,293​	$2,369​	$2,442​
median owner costs without a mortgage	$719​	$733​	$720​	$711​	$721​	$730​	$743​	$776​	$804​	$815​

Since housing in Boston is only ~35% owner-occupied and ~65% renter-occupied, a spike in rents is going to bring any pop growth to a grinding halt.

 

[dshoost88]

I'm just confused. Like this thread here but the population growth isn't adding up to what is approved

A couple things about the data you shared. Decennial census data is an actual count; the yearly population numbers in between are 'estimates'. The US only performs an official count once every 10 years, so getting hung up on the estimates for the in-between years is not an accurate barometer for population counts over a long period of time.

One thing that drove Boston's population growth since its' founding has been foreign immigration. As an international gateway city, Boston historically has a high ratio of foreign-born residents and in the first 6 years of the 2010's, that ratio continued to climb. The Trump Administration's position and policy implementation on immigration, however, took a toll on foreign immigration all over the US. My educated guess as to why the annual population 'estimates' show a slower pace of growth the last few years has less to do with the new development coming online and more to do with larger trends among immigrants with relation to Boston.

 

[shmessy]

I think I might have found a correlation: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/tabl...id=ACSDP5Y2010.DP04&moe=true&hidePreview=true

year	2010​	2011​	2012​	2013​	2014​	2015​	2016​	2017​	2018​	2019​
median gross rent	$1,199​	$1,238​	$1,265​	$1,281​	$1,298​	$1,320​	$1,369​	$1,445​	$1,539​	$1,620​
median value of owner-occupied housing units	$395,200​	$381,900​	$374,700​	$371,000​	$379,500​	$393,600​	$423,200​	$455,100​	$487,300​	$532,700​
median owner costs with a mortgage	$2,332​	$2,343​	$2,313​	$2,265​	$2,255​	$2,223​	$2,243​	$2,293​	$2,369​	$2,442​
median owner costs without a mortgage	$719​	$733​	$720​	$711​	$721​	$730​	$743​	$776​	$804​	$815​

Since housing in Boston is only ~35% owner-occupied and ~65% renter-occupied, a spike in rents is going to bring any pop growth to a grinding halt.

Quick calculation from that table shows costs over the decade:
median owner wtih mortgage: +4.72%
median owner without mortgage: +13.35%
median gross rent: +35.11%

I would think the relative spike in rents has already been happening. Perhaps a plateauing would mean a large population increase?

 

[dshoost88]

I think I might have found a correlation: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/tabl...id=ACSDP5Y2010.DP04&moe=true&hidePreview=true

year	2010​	2011​	2012​	2013​	2014​	2015​	2016​	2017​	2018​	2019​
median gross rent	$1,199​	$1,238​	$1,265​	$1,281​	$1,298​	$1,320​	$1,369​	$1,445​	$1,539​	$1,620​
median value of owner-occupied housing units	$395,200​	$381,900​	$374,700​	$371,000​	$379,500​	$393,600​	$423,200​	$455,100​	$487,300​	$532,700​
median owner costs with a mortgage	$2,332​	$2,343​	$2,313​	$2,265​	$2,255​	$2,223​	$2,243​	$2,293​	$2,369​	$2,442​
median owner costs without a mortgage	$719​	$733​	$720​	$711​	$721​	$730​	$743​	$776​	$804​	$815​

Since housing in Boston is only ~35% owner-occupied and ~65% renter-occupied, a spike in rents is going to bring any pop growth to a grinding halt.

That would be true, unless other factors like median wages and number of two-income households increased during that time as well. According to this chart, Boston median household income climbed nearly $12,000 from 2009 to 2019... double the US rate, and higher than the Massachusetts rate as well. And according to this 2019 report from the BPDA, job growth in higher-wage industries climbed during that time as well.

 

[George_Apley]

I wonder how much of the slow-down can be attributed to post-grads not staying in town. When I entered the workforce in 2010 the housing stock was full of, and filling with, 22-25 year olds at pricey but not outrageous rents, especially when split. And I went to college in Amherst. More than three dozen UMassers I knew personally from the Class of 2010 all were living in and around Boston by 2011. Not to mention the post-grads who actually went to school here. In some cases housing filled with post-grads fit the population role of the multi-child households of the early-20th Century. If that's happening less in 2020 than it did in 2010 it could help explain the plateau. I wonder if, as prices have climbed significantly for renters that the mass-move to the city just isn't as attractive to post-grads anymore and they're opting to go elsewhere (back home, a new city, etc.) for more affordable housing. Just speculating though and would be interested in data on this.