Bulfinch Crossing | Congress Street Garage | West End

[KentXie]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

I thought President OBAMA, Ben Beranke and CNBC said the recession is OVER?

Recession is over. We're just waiting for the unemployment lag to be over before the simpletons (which is pretty much the majority of the people no offense) are convinced the recession is over. Unfortunately, their pessimism is actually extending the duration of the lag.

 

[Ron Newman]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Until unemployment drops there isn't a "recovery".

 

[TheRifleman]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Recession is over. We're just waiting for the unemployment lag to be over before the simpletons (which is pretty much the majority of the people no offense) are convinced the recession is over. Unfortunately, their pessimism is actually extending the duration of the lag.

If that was true then we wouldn't have a problem finding financing for Filenes, Congress St and Columbus. Unemployment has nothing to do with finding financing for building.

 

[tmac9wr]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

We certainly aren't "out" of anything. However we certainly are recovering. The worst is (hopefully) over. I believe the expert consensus was that housing prices bottomed out last March. The big thing is that we're not expected to rocket back to where we were before...we're not going to see the Dow topping 15,000 anytime soon. This is going to take awhile. There is no quick fix.

From what I've heard, we'll see more and more bank money come into play as the year progresses. I guess only time we'll tell.

 

[buju b]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

The recession is not over. Tens of thousands of jobs were lost just last month--when there is normally an uptick in season (holiday) retail sales and commerece in general.

Businesses are, at best, cautious and hesitant to expand in any significant amount with the current uncertainty surrounding existing and proposed economic policies.

Can't blame them . . . If there was the real possibility of a large increase in taxes and other cash outflows coming into the picutre, who wouldn't be tight-fisted with their $$?

The best that can be said about the economy right now is that the rate of job loss seems to have slowed somewhat, compared to several months ago anyway. There are brewing storms that could easily cause higher rates of job loss and increased unemployment levels, notably: a second round of residential mortgage foreclosures, the passage and enactment of this absurd health care reform [sic] bill, the passage and enactment of the cap and trade legislation in any form, and the passage and enactment of a check card bill, to name a few.

 

[TheRifleman]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

We certainly aren't "out" of anything. However we certainly are recovering. The worst is (hopefully) over. I believe the expert consensus was that housing prices bottomed out last March. The big thing is that we're not expected to rocket back to where we were before...we're not going to see the Dow topping 15,000 anytime soon. This is going to take awhile. There is no quick fix.

From what I've heard, we'll see more and more bank money come into play as the year progresses. I guess only time we'll tell.

Don't you need job growth or wage growth to expand an economy All I see is Unemployement claims continue their upward trend and wages are declining. Who is going to buy these condos at Filenes for 500 or 600K?

Whatever happens when they raise rates or are they going to be record lows forever?

 

[BostonYoureMyHome]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

If that was true then we wouldn't have a problem finding financing for Filenes, Congress St and Columbus. Unemployment has nothing to do with finding financing for building.

My understanding is that the underwriters are not going to finance an office project when offices are downsizing...not expanding. Last I checked company downsizing typically had an effect on unemployment...but I guess I could be wrong?

 

[KentXie]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Until unemployment drops there isn't a "recovery".

Wrong. In economic terms, recovery starts as soon as GDP starts to increase. Unemployment rate always lags behind a recession. When looking at a graph, its a good way to approximate when a recovery start, but it is not precise.

If that was true then we wouldn't have a problem finding financing for Filenes, Congress St and Columbus. Unemployment has nothing to do with finding financing for building.

Yes it does. And yes it is true, the recession is over. A recession is over once GDP increases which it did during the last quarter. However the lag in unemployment, which always occurs after a recession, is due to the lack of consumer confidence and employer confidence. No people spending means no jobs which means companies are not expanding which means no tenant for towers which means banks will not be willing to loan money to such projects. It has to do with confidence.

Don't you need job growth or wage growth to expand an economy All I see is Unemployement claims continue their upward trend and wages are declining. Who is going to buy these condos at Filenes for 500 or 600K?

Whatever happens when they raise rates or are they going to be record lows forever?

No. As shown by last quarter, even with the job loss, real GDP increased by 3.5%. Wage growth is a bad way to tell if a economy is expanding or not because we don't know whether the growth kept up with the growth in inflation. Income is a way to tell if GDP expanded or not when it is inflation-adjusted but not the growth.

 

[blade_bltz]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

^^ I think Ron knows the Econ 101 definition of recession. He was pointing out this idea of a "jobless recovery" is a recovery in a pretty weak sense...

 

[KentXie]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

The recession is not over. Tens of thousands of jobs were lost just last month--when there is normally an uptick in season (holiday) retail sales and commerece in general.

Businesses are, at best, cautious and hesitant to expand in any significant amount with the current uncertainty surrounding existing and proposed economic policies.

Can't blame them . . . If there was the real possibility of a large increase in taxes and other cash outflows coming into the picutre, who wouldn't be tight-fisted with their $$?

The best that can be said about the economy right now is that the rate of job loss seems to have slowed somewhat, compared to several months ago anyway. There are brewing storms that could easily cause higher rates of job loss and increased unemployment levels, notably: a second round of residential mortgage foreclosures, the passage and enactment of this absurd health care reform [sic] bill, the passage and enactment of the cap and trade legislation in any form, and the passage and enactment of a check card bill, to name a few.

Recession is over because GDP increased last quarter, period. You cannot expect jobs to immediately be created after one or so months of finding out that GDP is growing nor for it to return to pre-recession levels that quickly. Again, unemployment rate does not tell whether the economy is in a recession or not.

 

[armpitsOFmight]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

^^^Uh, ok Mr. College know-it-all

 

[kennedy]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Recession may be over, but recession is not synonymous with sustained economic hardship. Recession is a strict definition of an economic trend, but it does not describe the fiscal state of the country. That cannot be described by a simple table of numbers, it's a mix of sociology, psychology, economics, etc.

EDIT: Itchy just proved me mostly wrong.

 

[itchy]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Recession is over because GDP increased last quarter, period.

Sorry to be a pain, but if we're talking definitions, then that's, er, not exactly how the end of a recession is determined.

Newspapers like to say that two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction a recession make. But that's hokum.

The body charged with officially determining for the US when business cycles turn (i.e., when recessions begin/end), the Cambridge-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), defines recession in the following manner:

"The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

The NBER has not called an "end" to the current recession, and that's why all reporting is very tentative in speaking of "green shoots" or "signs of an upturn" without actually saying the recession is over. It might be, or might not be. You can never really call these things in real time, unfortunately. Until the NBER decides that there has been an end to "significant decline in economic activity," recession trundles on. One quarter, or even two, of positive GDP growth doesn't necessarily mean the end (though it can). The 81-82 recession, as I remember, saw some positive GDP growth within its duration.

Sorry to go nerdly... Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

 

[KentXie]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

^^^Uh, ok Mr. College know-it-all

Can you actually contribute something to the forum besides pictures?

 

[KentXie]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Sorry to be a pain, but if we're talking definitions, then that's, er, not exactly how the end of a recession is determined.

Newspapers like to say that two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction a recession make. But that's hokum.

The body charged with officially determining for the US when business cycles turn (i.e., when recessions begin/end), the Cambridge-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), defines recession in the following manner:

"The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

The NBER has not called an "end" to the current recession, and that's why all reporting is very tentative in speaking of "green shoots" or "signs of an upturn" without actually saying the recession is over. It might be, or might not be. You can never really call these things in real time, unfortunately. Until the NBER decides that there has been an end to "significant decline in economic activity," recession trundles on. One quarter, or even two, of positive GDP growth doesn't necessarily mean the end (though it can). The 81-82 recession, as I remember, saw some positive GDP growth within its duration.

Sorry to go nerdly... Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

I guess that's how the US determine it. I'm using the more international definition which most economists use. My mistake.

 

[armpitsOFmight]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Can you actually contribute something to the forum besides pictures?

I'm just waiting to hear you start whining about me to Statler or Van about how I should be banned.

 

[buju b]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Kent,

Regardless of the semantics, my larger point is that the economy, by any definition, would be hard to describe as anything north of fragile.

That is why it persists to be difficult for developers (or anybody) to secure funding for just about anything.

People with money will not try and use it to make more money (by financing other people's projects) if they (1) do not think that another person's project will bring about a good return on their investment, and/or (2) have other concerns, not necessarily relating to a specific investment opportunity, about their cash in-flows and, more pointedly, cash out-flows (i.e. increased taxation).

Until this current economic climate changes, investment will not flow, companies will not grow, employment numbers will not increase, and people will continue to be more disciplined with how much money they spend which will keep overall commerce somewhat stagnant.

 

[BostonYoureMyHome]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

^ I think Kent would agree with you on this point, and this is exactly the issue that started this conversation. So I think we can all agree that unemployment DOES have an impact on project financing, as well as the other way around. Sorry Rifleman.

 

[KentXie]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Kent,

Regardless of the semantics, my larger point is that the economy, by any definition, would be hard to describe as anything north of fragile.

That is why it persists to be difficult for developers (or anybody) to secure funding for just about anything.

People with money will not try and use it to make more money (by financing other people's projects) if they (1) do not think that another person's project will bring about a good return on their investment, and/or (2) have other concerns, not necessarily relating to a specific investment opportunity, about their cash in-flows and, more pointedly, cash out-flows (i.e. increased taxation).

Until this current economic climate changes, investment will not flow, companies will not grow, employment numbers will not increase, and people will continue to be more disciplined with how much money they spend which will keep overall commerce somewhat stagnant.

Exactly. I do not disagree with these statements. I'm only stating that the public will not see any improvement even if the recession is over until at least a few months has passed. However, the first thing that needs to happen is for confidence in all sectors, banks, business, consumers, etc needs to be restored before anything happens. Continuing to believe that a recession will continue for another extended period only drives confidence down, leading to people not hiring workers, and workers not spending money with no income.

 

[buju b]

Re: Congress Street Garage Development

Kent,

Agreed.

You and I are in somewhat of a chicken and egg discussion here . . .

A huge part of the reason confidence in any/all sectors is not rebounding is all of the uncertainty and potential taxation that will fall upon business and business owners. These folks/institutions cannot just click their ruby red slippers together and wish away the valid worries about the current and future climate in which they do business, no matter how much any of us wish it was that simple.

Until these concerns are dispensed with (in reality or at least in perception), the confidence will not be restored.