Census 2010 - Southern Maine - Guesses?

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apa99

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I saw some interesting talk about Sanford, Saco, Scarborough, Biddeford in earlier posts... I'm also interested to see what Census 2010 reveals.... I think Sanford once had lofty goals of 30,000 by 2010... I found that to be a ridiculous estimate, seeing as Maine cities simply don't grow by 10,000 in 10 years.. Maybe in Massachusetts, but not Maine.

My expectations.. Biddeford and Sanford at 22,000.. Saco and Scarboro at 20,000. Things grow SLOWLY in Maine.
 
You must have saw my Sanford thread. Here's a review from that thread:

Edit: Maine's top 10 in 2000:

1. Portland - 64,249
2. Lewiston - 35,690
3. Bangor - 31,473
4. South Portland - 23,324
5. Auburn - 23,203
6. Brunswick - 21,172
7. Biddeford - 20,942
8. Sanford - 20,806
9. Augusta - 18,560
10. Scarborough - 16,970

Saco, Westbrook, Waterville, Windham, Gorham, York, Kennebunk and Falmouth wrap up the remaining communities in Maine over 10,000 in 2000.

Maine's top 10 in 1990:

1. Portland - 64,358
2. Lewiston - 39,757
3. Bangor - 33,181
4. Auburn - 24,309
5. South Portland - 23,163
6. Augusta - 21,325
7. Brunswick - 20,906
8. Biddeford - 20,710
9. Sanford - 20,463
10. Waterville - 17,173

Top 10 in 1980:

1. Portland - 61,572
2. Lewiston - 40,481
3. Bangor - 31,643
4. Auburn - 23,128
5. South Portland - 22,712
6. Augusta - 21,819
7. Biddeford - 19,638
8. Sanford - 18,020
9. Waterville - 17,779
10. Brunswick - 17,366

I agree with you that Sanford does have some lofty goals and Maine population growth in general is slow. However, around Portland, Cumberland county and York county the growth rate is always the state's highest. For a while there things population wise were on the up and up for Sanford. Since the economy soured though, growth in the Sanford area has slowed down a bit. I think your estimates are right on...but wouldn't be surprised to see 23,000 for either Biddeford or Sanford.
 
I do seem to remember census 2000 figures had already been released by early November... seems they are later for this one.

Brunswick will probably go down a few thousand due to the BNAS closing in 2007.

Biddeford, I do believe, can count UNE students who live there, so keep that in mind.

What part of town is most of the residential growth in sanford occurring? I still couldnt fathom 30,000, even in the most robust of economies. On the other hand, it does have a HUGE footprint square-mileage-wise, so I know there is plenty of place to build.
 
A sour economy might make Sanford grow, given the low rents and public housing there.
 
I went to the U.S. census site to see the 2010 results for Maine. The state population was 1,328,361 for 2010, but none of the populations for the towns and cities were listed for 2010. What I did find however were the estimates from 2000 to 2009, when the estimated population was 1,318,301. The top ten from 2009 are listed below:

1. Portland - 63,008
2. Lewiston - 35,057
3. Bangor - 31,450
4. South Portland - 23,976
5. Auburn - 22,883
6. Brunswick - 21,992
7. Biddeford - 21,383
8. Sanford - 21,104
9. Scarborough - 19,239
10. Augusta - 18,444

Saco, Westbrook, Waterville, Windham, Gorham, York, Kennebunk, Orono, Kittery and Falmouth wrap up the remaining communities in Maine over 10,000 in 2009.

The biggest change from 2000 to 2009 was Scarborough moving up to 9th by tackin' on just under 2,300 in the last 9 years.

I'm guessing the census results for 2010 will be out later this year. I wouldn'd be surprised if Saco moves into tenth and Augusta into 11th.
 
Thanks Shaz. If the State estimate was off by 10,000 (.76%), hopefully the City population will be adjusted upward, too. This would bring it to 63,487 which is actually a slight increase. I can't understand how population continues to drop with all of the new housing and apartments that have gone up. There was a period where Portland built virtually no large apartment buildings, yet it seems several have been recently completed...also, with the influx of immigrants and secondary migrants it is strange the numbers would have stayed so low. Interesting note: in 1982 the projected 1990 population for Portland as based on current construction activity was 84,000.
 
Could Portland's population decline be linked to gentrification? It's certainly not a city in decline (quite the opposite). While there is new residential construction, you have a number of multi-unit buildings becoming single unit buildings and wealthier residents taking up more space. Also, I would assume that even though Maine is losing people as a whole, the immediate Portland area (Portland, S. Portland, Westbrook, Scarborough, Cape, Falmouth, Yarmouth, Freeport, Saco, etc) is experiencing moderate growth, no?
 

Good points, Lrfox.

In Portland, despite the increase in housing units, I imagine that a larger amount of city residents live by themselves or one other person. Whereas a larger percentage of suburban and rural households hold more families. Of course, family sizes are smaller now than in the past so that factors in also. Never in human history have so few people taken up so much room. :p
 
Lrfox said:
Could Portland's population decline be linked to gentrification? It's certainly not a city in decline (quite the opposite). While there is new residential construction, you have a number of multi-unit buildings becoming single unit buildings and wealthier residents taking up more space. Also, I would assume that even though Maine is losing people as a whole, the immediate Portland area (Portland, S. Portland, Westbrook, Scarborough, Cape, Falmouth, Yarmouth, Freeport, Saco, etc) is experiencing moderate growth, no?
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Yes, it is gentrification and suburbanization. Structures which used to house whole families are now condo conversions and other spaces for young unmarried professionals. However, that process largely happened and plateaued between 1950 and 1990. Last I checked the average household size was something like 2.5....what, did the other half person decide to move out? I understand gentrification has picked up, but it seems the pace of apartment construction has been greater than that trend, especially because the population base was already low to begin with.

Also, Maine has gained people, even though it was one of 4 states projected to have lost population. I just don't get it. Hopefully the estimate is wrong, because otherwise it would be a bit confusing.
 
^It is strange. Maybe the occupancy rate on those new condos and apartments is still low? That's the case in many other cities. It could be that the Census was taken at a poor time (down economy) to reflect the growth that the new construction represents.
 
Of the 10,000 person differance between the 2009 estimate and the 2010 census, I think most of it will benefit Cumberland and York counties in the final count. It seems like those two just out pace the rest of the state in growth.

My predictions for the next decade? I think OOB and Wells by 2015 will be over 10,000 easily. I also think it will be interesting to see if Scarborough will pass by Brunswick, Biddeford, Sanford and even Auburn as the state's 5th largest community in the next decade. I also think Saco has a chance to even surpass it's sister city, Biddeford (based on Saco's much faster growth..). As for Portland, I agree with Lrfox, maybe the census caught Portland at a bad time. I think the numbers for 2020 will be better, maybe around 65,000.
 
Interesting predictions, Shazbat. OOB itself is a small town geographically, with just over 7 square miles, so I'm not sure how drastically its population may grow in the next decade but certainly combined with Scarborough, Saco, and those other towns there will be some decent growth. Of course, I'm interested to see how the growth occurs as well. For example, I imagine that Scarborough's growth is fueled mostly by suburban housing developments which aren't a great return on investment for the town. Scarborough would be smart to focus continuing development on it's many 'villages,' such as Oak Hill, Pine Point, Pleasant Hill, Higgins Beach, etc.
 
I think a few years ago Scarborough was reveiwing a subdivision that was focused on smart, denser growth. If I can remember correctly though, it was turned down.

Another thing that could spur some additional growth, especially in Sanford and York County, would be the completion of the Spaulding Turnpike expansion going on right now in NH. It should be done in 2013. Hopefully after that the state will look into ways to expand Rt. 111 (one of the state's most accident prone roads) between Sanford and Biddeford!!! That thing needs to be a 4 laner!
 
SHAZBAT73 said:
Of the 10,000 person differance between the 2009 estimate and the 2010 census, I think most of it will benefit Cumberland and York counties in the final count. It seems like those two just out pace the rest of the state in growth.

My predictions for the next decade? I think OOB and Wells by 2015 will be over 10,000 easily. I also think it will be interesting to see if Scarborough will pass by Brunswick, Biddeford, Sanford and even Auburn as the state's 5th largest community in the next decade. I also think Saco has a chance to even surpass it's sister city, Biddeford (based on Saco's much faster growth..). As for Portland, I agree with Lrfox, maybe the census caught Portland at a bad time. I think the numbers for 2020 will be better, maybe around 65,000.
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It's certianly possible that Saco surpasses Biddeford in 2020, but it would not be by much. What amazes me about Biddeford is how unbelievably stable the population has been since WWII. Almost always the same.

I still think even in the best of times in the mid-2000s, Sanford planners publicly stating they expected 30,000 residents by 2010 was a pipe dream. Look at these estimates! Yearly net migration never seems to exceed +/- 250 people. They obviously were ignorant to Maine historical population trends. Now compare that to Florida or Texas...
 
I do remember Sanford thinking pretty big back then. Without a doubt Sanford is very pro growth, especially in relation to it's surrounding towns (growth ordinances, quotas). As for Biddeford, the population IS incredibly stable. I know when I was a student at Massabesic (many moons ago!), we had alot of students who used to be from Biddeford, only to go back a few years later.
 
SHAZBAT73 said:
I do remember Sanford thinking pretty big back then. Without a doubt Sanford is very pro growth, especially in relation to it's surrounding towns (growth ordinances, quotas). As for Biddeford, the population IS incredibly stable. I know when I was a student at Massabesic (many moons ago!), we had alot of students who used to be from Biddeford, only to go back a few years later.
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Most of Biddeford's bad rep is undeserved IMO... Yes the downtown needs a lot of work but its position in southern Maine and its commercial growth put it in one of the best positions in all of Maine. A big misconception I've seen in PPH articles is that Biddeford's population is on the decline. Its growth isn't eye-popping, but its always been positive growth. Saco has definitely enjoyed much more residential growth in the past 20 years...

Then there's the other side of the coin... the Biddeford coast, which is probably the top 3 richest communities in all of Maine, no joke. Just an interesting community as a whole.

I like your comment about Route 111. It is most certainly deserving of being 4 lanes.. heck I'd put a divider on that road if I could. I've seen so many near-accidents, jerks trying to pass people already going 60 mph...

Think of Route 9 in Metrowest MA. Its not a perfect comparison because there's more people down there, but I couldn't imagine that road not being divided (for safety reasons). Route 111 could benefit from controlled access.
 
SHAZBAT73 said:
I think a few years ago Scarborough was reveiwing a subdivision that was focused on smart, denser growth. If I can remember correctly though, it was turned down.
Click to expand...

Yes Shazbat, the development to which you refer is known as Dunstan Crossing, and it is currently in phase II of construction, with some units already complete and occupied. The Chamberlain Brothers investment/construction team proposed a much larger smart growth project, and the Maine DOT was completely behind the plan, ready to contribute tons of money to transportation improvements in the area if the subdivision was a "game changing" development. The Town and developers, through numerous community meetings and feedback processes, ultimately approved a much smaller project, which is what is there today, and MDOT declined its funding due to the less ambitious project. This is a good example of an attempt to link land use and transportation planning, but one which failed due to the conservative attitude of people in Maine toward density.
 
Census figures out. Sanford lost 8 people in 10 years. Biddeford gained 300. Saco gained 1600.
 
Portland's 2010 population is 66,194, a 3 percent gain from 2000. An improvement from some of the projections I saw that had the city coming in at around 62,000.
 
A follow up to my previous post. Maine's five largest cities according to the just released 2010 Census:

(1) Portland, 66,194, (2) Lewiston, 36,592 (3) Bangor, 33,039 (4) South Portland, 25,002 (5) Auburn, 23,055

Of the above cities, only Auburn had a slight decrease in population since 2000, all others showed modest gains. And Portland's figures are the highest since 72,566 back in 1960, you can only squeeze so many people in 22.6 square miles!
 
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