Eyeing it on the map, Manchester seems to be about as far as New Bedford. One major difference is the presence of I-93, a straight shot to Boston, and a direct, subsidized, competitor to the [potential] commuter rail. Boston Express Bus seems to do it in about 1h30m at rush hour, starting from a park-n-ride south of town.
Worcester is approximately 40 miles from Boston. It seems to take an all-stops local train about 1h35m to 1h45m (~23mph) to make the journey, 16 stops altogether. This reminds me of the Caltrain corridor somewhat. It is 47 miles from San Jose Diridon to San Francisco 4th and King, and about 21 weekday stops. The all-stops local takes 1h30m (~33mph), using pretty much the same locomotive and operational style as the MBTA. So, now that I look at it, something is really slow about the Worcester line. Probably can blame CSX or something, I'm sure someone here knows.
Worcester is one of those exceptions I mentioned. It is worth it. But, at 40 miles distant, it really shouldn't be taking that long to get to Boston on the local train. Providence at about 45 miles distance takes about 1h15m (~36mph) to get to South Station. Fewer stops on the way from Providence, though, which reminds me that it would also help if we weren't stuck with these ancient diesel locos that take forever to stop and start moving again.
So back to Manchester. I think it's a bit far at 50 miles, and I-93 goes right there. At least with cities like Fitchburg, the highway connection isn't as direct. I don't know. Maybe Manchester justifies it. But then wouldn't also New Bedford? Maybe it does too. But given the fiasco that is SCR, I'm not enthusiastic about repeating it with NH.
Suppose NH was willing to pay for the service (fat chance). Plus, in this distant and strange future, MBTA finally got their head out of their ass and ran frequent Lowell trains. If you wanted to treat Manchester as a separate outer express service, you really need at least one or two extra tracks on the Lowell line to support it without hurting the inner service. Or really carefully placed passing tracks, I suppose. That will cost a lot, probably coming from MA.
Lowell Line doesn't need extra tracks. It needs a new signal system. Right now the speed limit is capped at 60 MPH northbound and 50 MPH southbound, the slowest permanent speed of any T commuter rail line. That makes schedule management and storage space hard when all the outbounds reach Lowell much faster than the inbounds can get back home. The single track from North Chelmsford Jct. to Nashua Yard is rated 60 MPH passenger today (note: that's the FRA track class to Nashua...I doubt the T would attempt that speed on bumpy old old jointed rail). But the 26 miles from Lowell to Boston that carries packed AM trains isn't. Something's wrong with that picture.
Lowell also doesn't have an active layover yard because the one there doesn't have the idling pads where trains can plug into an electric supply to keep their AC converters powered while shutting off the main engine. Wastes fuel and belches a ton of fumes in the adjacent neighborhood. They have to deadhead trains to Boston off-peak to keep space clear, and sometimes make "secret" 1:00am revenue trains out of the last outbound of the night when it has to deadhead back to Boston. It's the only line besides itty-bitty Stoughton that doesn't have a layover.
And there's a 25 MPH speed restriction through the only grade crossings on the line, a few hundred feet apart in West Medford. The crossing signals are all "dumb" mechanical-switch triggered and can't coordinate with the traffic lights in the square. So trains, including Downeasters and Haverhill expresses that skip West Medford station, have to crawl through there and a human crossing tender has to be on duty all day to provide manual assist and override to help the backed up car traffic. This is because there's no fiber optic cable anywhere nearby to wire up a "smart" crossing with signal priority and coordination.
This is pretty pathetic on a fully double-tracked line, almost entirely straight with high-speed graded curves, with no grade crossings whatsoever besides that dysfunctional West Medford pair, wide station spacing everywhere but the absurd Wedgemere/Winchester Ctr. pair, and serving as the northside's only 'true' intercity line. It's the slowest single portion of the Downeaster, with the Anderson-Boston southbound trip timing as long as some of the widest-spaced stops in the NH and ME sticks where it's 80 MPH running. These signals are also the most failure-prone on the entire northside they're so old, and there are a lot of flooding problems in Somerville (being fixed this year bundled with GLX work), Winchester, and Woburn because of decrepit culverts. So don't let current ride and the somewhat anemic Lowell schedules deceive. This is a high-speed intercity trunk, the freight traffic's moderate but waaay lower than Worcester, and without such a deep deferred maintenance hole it should by all logic be the fastest not-Providence line on the system fully capable of absorbing a branchline or two in addition to interstate service.
Nashua's sleight of hand may be a real blessing in disguise if the T becomes surrogate for the study, because the problems with the current line would get addressed in big 14 pt. print whereas New Hampshire couldn't care less. They stand a decent chance of getting some Amtrak funding for the Wilmington-Boston signal renewal because that's the Downeaster's #1 bottleneck after all the Haverhill Line work is finished and also one of their biggest PTC mandate compliance terror threats because the T has done zilch to plan for their implementation (station pyramids and South Coast FAIL consultants before binding federal law!). +30 MPH (1-1/2 times faster) for 12 miles on the southbound DE...bigtime improvement. The Nashua study would be an excellent way to expedite that and fish for funding to finish the job Wilmington-Lowell...all in a way that saves the Obama Admin. some face for their overexhuberence on the Capitol Corridor after NH punked them.
In many ways this is an easier job than all the little crap they have to do the Worcester Line because once ongoing Wedgemere and Winchester platform construction is done West Medford's the last non-ADA station to tackle (as opposed to Worcester's 7 non-accessible stops). It needs no double-tracking. GLX funds the cost of some of the Somerville refurbishment. The freight wheeling-and-dealing with Pan Am via Haverhill clears out some of the freight interference at Lowell station and cleans up the spaghetti mess of switches and sidings so passenger trains can go a little faster on the last mile to the station.
Watch how attractive this looks when numbers get crunched for what real 80 MPH running and layover space for a real Lowell schedule does to the existing ridership. And the Downeaster. It's 10 miles to the border after Lowell on track with the same signals, 3 miles of it already double-tracked at "passenger-comfort" standards because of all-day freight use. Border stop and layover yeard at Exit 1, Nashua previously studied is at the demolished industrial site on Spit Brook Rd. behind the IHOP, 4000 ft. across the state line. If Nashua wants to go to the mat for a downtown stop, more power to them. But wrapped up with Lowell improvements, Exit 1 has a sales pitch not at all unlike a capital-letter Wachusett extension rolled up with the Fitchburg improvements.
I'm glad people with somewhat of a clue are scheming like this on the study's behalf. It's the kind of stimulus windfall that could get the T on-base with a backlog of infrastructure renewal it's required by law to do hell or high water. This is their vehicle to advocate for it, get the national/Amtrak tie-in with the Downeaster miles, wave some compelling Lowell ridership projections in people's faces as this mythical "revenue growth" lip-service they're paying while they're whining about finances, and serve up the extension as the
smaller piece of the puzzle (with blah blah blah about how a layover yard behind the IHOP and Burger King on a Route 3 offramp would be so much more humane than downtown Lowell).
It's a sales pitch. $3.5M gift is not going to look like such an ideological purity test worth warring over if it nets a 2x better quality/quantity of commute from Lowell with all the economic coattails stemming from that. Hell, even settling up the Amtrak miles to Wilmington would be a major, major difference. Punt it to MA and we'll run with it.