Commuters Ditched Public Transit for Work From Home. Now There’s a Crisis.

[Delvin4519]

For the 93 bus there used to be 18 min headways. Now IF they followed the schedule there would be 60+ min headways. The big IF there is that they don't have enough drivers so if they planned on having 3 drivers but only 2 show up the first 2 runs on the line in the morning run then the 3 run just doesn't. So now there is frequently a 2 hour gap in service. Ridership is down on the 93 bus at least in part because it is no longer a reliable method of getting to work.

Another issue is that to commute from downtown to Community College I always make sure I get on at State Street station because it's free because of the blue line. Not only is that taking another paying rider off the 93 but also isn't even tracked as a rider of the orange line.

Charlestown is the biggest transit desert that is 1 mile from downtown, which is actually one of the most insane things out there. With the North Washington Street bridge out of commission until the end of March 2025, the neighborhood has been left without transportation alternatives. The Sullivan Square New Rutherford project that would reconfigure the intersections in front of Community College and Sullivan, I haven't heard anything about. They were supposed to begin construction in 2023.

The T is only running 52% of pre-COVID service on the 93 and 64% for the 92. What used to be every 7-8 minutes rush hour is now only every half hour. Plus limited Route 92 service that operates a only few days a week until 9pm. If I filter the map to exclude service that runs less than 1 bus per hour, then no lines in Charlestown show up.

Boggles my mind. I suppose if they were to cut the terminal for the 92 and 93 from downtown to Haymarket, the T could use 2 buses and run more service, versus making a useless figure 8 loop right on top of the Orange and Green Lines. The T could opt to have the 92 and 93 buses make a right onto Congress from North St. to eliminate 5 minutes of runtime, which is 5 minutes shorter headways.

General MBTA Topics (Multi Modal, Budget, MassDOT)

It's wild how the I-95 bridge collapse, which serves 150k cars day, was fixed in 12 days, while the Red Line which carries ~240k per day pre-pandemic is allowed to languish for months at a unusable frequency and travel speed. One word: freight.

archboston.com

 

[Teban54]

For the 93 bus there used to be 18 min headways. Now IF they followed the schedule there would be 60+ min headways. The big IF there is that they don't have enough drivers so if they planned on having 3 drivers but only 2 show up the first 2 runs on the line in the morning run then the 3 run just doesn't. So now there is frequently a 2 hour gap in service. Ridership is down on the 93 bus at least in part because it is no longer a reliable method of getting to work.

Another issue is that to commute from downtown to Community College I always make sure I get on at State Street station because it's free because of the blue line. Not only is that taking another paying rider off the 93 but also isn't even tracked as a rider of the orange line.

At least the Bus Network Redesign plans to turn both the 93 and (most of) the 92 corridor into 15-min Frequent Bus Routes, merging with the T7 and T101 respectively, albeit cutting off downtown access for the 92 in place of a one-seat ride to Kendall.

This should improve service to Charlestown massively, especially if the T7 maintains is current frequency of 7 minutes in South Boston during peak hours.

The question is how long it takes for that to happen, with the current operator shortages.

 

[Delvin4519]

At least the Bus Network Redesign plans to turn both the 93 and (most of) the 92 corridor into 15-min Frequent Bus Routes, merging with the T7 and T101 respectively, albeit cutting off downtown access for the 92 in place of a one-seat ride to Kendall.

This should improve service to Charlestown massively, especially if the T7 maintains is current frequency of 7 minutes in South Boston during peak hours.

The question is how long it takes for that to happen, with the current operator shortages.

I can't stress how much massive cuts to the 92 and 93 they made since 2016. Also, one other note, Route 93 pre-COVID AM peak still wouldn't be restored. The headway was supposed to be every 7 minutes during the AM peak between 6:55 a.m. and 8:40 a.m., but BNRD will only bring it up to every 8 minutes.

Headway	Rt 93 (2017)	Rt 93 (2023)	Rt 92 (2017)	Rt 92 (2023)	BNRD changes
AM peak	7 - 8 min (7 buses)	23 - 30 min (3 buses)	12 - 16 min (4 buses)	26 - 45 min (2 buses)	8 min
Midday	15 - 18 min (3 - 4 buses)	40 - 50 min (2 buses)	30 min (2 buses)	50 - 60 min (1 bus)	12 min
PM peak	8 - 9 min (7 buses)	30 - 32 min (3 buses)	13 - 17 min (4 buses)	30 - 35 min (2 buses)	8 min
Evening	35 min (1 bus)	45 min (1 bus)	35 - 40 min (1 bus to 10:15p)	40 min (1 bus to 9:40p)	15 min
Saturday	20 min (3 buses)	24 - 40 min (1 - 2.5 buses)	20 - 23 min (2 - 2.5 buses)	24 - 35 min (1 - 2.5 buses)	12 min
Sunday	40 min (1 bus)	65 min (<1 bus)	-	-	12 - 15 min

 

[Delvin4519]

Across the United States, many transit agencies continue to face fiscal cliffs, staff shortages, and endless service cuts and frequency reductions, since the COVID-19 pandemic. Chicago's CTA has continued to cut down on service and reduce frequency, impacting the recovery of downtown Chicago post-COVID.

CTA Brown, Orange Line schedules down more than 25%, even as other cities rebuild transit levels

Louciana Johnson thought his corporate wellness job’s move to Merchandise Mart downtown would ease his commute, allowing him to take the Brown Line instead of paying for ride-shares. Johnson …

www.chicagotribune.com

 

[Delvin4519]

WMATA proposes 2,000 layoffs, shutting down of 10 subway stations, and the elimination of 67 bus routes, in the U.S.'s capital city. Fare hikes of 20% are also included.

All of these may occur due to the impending fiscal cliff, given the reduced fare revenue from fewer commuters post-COVID. This is even as DC managed to restore full subway service and the implementation of night buses. The fare revenues are still not enough.

Metro GM says 10 stations and 67 bus lines may be cut, 2,000 layoffs possible if budget gap isn't filled

Metro General Manager Randy Clarke warned of dramatic service and job cuts if the transit agency doesn’t close a $750 million budget gap in the first half of 2024. Metro has sounded the alarm for months, saying that if a solution isn’t found, it could change the transit system as we know it...

www.nbcwashington.com

 

[aquaticko]

Anyone know if there are related drives--statewide or nationally--to get public spending on roadways in line? If use fees are supposed to be what funds transportation funding, I'm not sure why transit should be the only mode subject to that expectation....

 

[millerm277]

Anyone know if there are related drives--statewide or nationally--to get public spending on roadways in line? If use fees are supposed to be what funds transportation funding, I'm not sure why transit should be the only mode subject to that expectation....

WMATA's farebox recovery rate pre-pandemic was around 33% from what I can find, and is obviously worse now. That is lower than what most estimates of road funding come up with for the portion paid by user fees.

While neither come close to "paying their way", and I don't think that should be the primary goal of transit services, I'm not sure this would really be a winning argument for transit funding.

 

[Nexis4jersey]

It doesn't help that they keep moving most federal offices outside the district...

 

[Delvin4519]

Rhode Island's bus transit system is on the verge of a fiscal cliff. All Sunday and holiday service in the state would be cancelled, plus elimination of fixed route services from many towns, and major catastrophic service frequency cuts on all remaining routes.

The fiscal cliff for Rhode Island's transit system is set to arrive by June 2024, this summer.

 

[Delvin4519]

In Pennsylvania, Gov. Shaprio proposes allocation an extra share of its state sales tax to fend off SEPTA's fiscal cliff. It would be the largest increase in state funding for transit since 2013.

Gov. Shapiro to propose $282.8 million in new state money for SEPTA and other transit agencies

SEPTA says it would be able to hold off cuts with money from its service stabilization fund until its share of Shapiro's proposed $282.8 million arrived.

www.inquirer.com

Gov. Shapiro to propose $282.8 million in new state money for SEPTA and other transit agencies​

SEPTA says it would be able to hold off cuts with money from its service stabilization fund until its share of Shapiro's proposed $282.8 million arrived.

Growing numbers of transit advocates and riders in the Philadelphia region have begun to protest the looming SEPTA cuts and demand more stable state support for transit, including a coalition in Northwest Philadelphia that is rallying around two threatened Regional Rail lines.

While this boost in funding would prevent service cuts for SEPTA and the Philly region. This is in stark contrast to what the MBTA faces back here in Massachusetts.

For comparison, Gov. Healey of Massachusetts proposed adding only $172M in state support for the MBTA. This still leaves the MBTA with a $93 million shortfall for FY25.

Healey funding plan not enough to close T's budget gap

Gov. Maura Healey’s push to increase state support for the MBTA could help the agency navigate the year ahead, but it would not be enough to solve a projected budget gap, officials said Thursday. MBTA Chief Financial Officer Mary Ann O’Hara said budget-writers will need to find another $93...

www.nbcboston.com

Healey funding plan not enough to close T's budget gap​

MBTA Chief Financial Officer Mary Ann O'Hara said budget-writers will need to find another $93 million in fiscal year 2025 to balance the T's revenues and expenses, even after accounting for the extra funding Healey's state spending plan would provide, if approved by the Legislature, and draining the last tranche of stashed-away federal pandemic aid.

 

[Delvin4519]

Rhode Island's bus transit system is on the verge of a fiscal cliff. All Sunday and holiday service in the state would be cancelled, plus elimination of fixed route services from many towns, and major catastrophic service frequency cuts on all remaining routes.

The fiscal cliff for Rhode Island's transit system is set to arrive by June 2024, this summer.

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RIPTA in Rhode Island to make massive sweeping bus transit service cuts and cancellation of a dozen routes by April, due to an ongoing hiring shortage. Due to the impending budget shortfalls, RIPTA has major difficulties in hiring.

The service cuts come April 2024 are only a slap in the face for transit riders in Rhode Island, as the fiscal cliff threatens massive sweeping cuts across all RIPTA services come July 2024.

RIPTA will cancel routes and reduce service because of a driver shortage. What to know.

RIPTA will hold a series of public hearings on the changes to collect feedback, but it's unclear if the cuts can be avoided.

www.providencejournal.com

 

[Delvin4519]

Massachusetts Governor Healey proposes funding cuts for Massachusetts RTAs (regional transit agencies)

More From Gov. Healey's Budget Proposal: RTA Cuts and E-Bikes - Streetsblog Massachusetts

Funding the MBTA was the big transportation news from the Governor’s big reveal of her 2025 budget proposal last week (it’s complicated). But now that we’ve had a few days to read through the rest of the Governor’s budget bill, there are a few other noteworthy items worth highlighting. After...

mass.streetsblog.org

After historic budget increase, Governor proposes RTA funding cut​

Governor Healey's proposed 2025 budget would put a major dent in that new funding, reducing the total available for RTAs from $184 million this year to $169 million next year. Taking a 3 percent inflation rate into account, this would amount to an 11 percent budget cut for the RTAs.

 

[fatnoah]

Massachusetts Governor Healey proposes funding cuts for Massachusetts RTAs (regional transit agencies)

I think context is important here. If I grok'ed the article correctly, last year the RTAs received a 91% increase in funding thanks to $90M in "fair share" funding. The new budget reduces that funding to $75M. It's definitely a big chunk less than last year, but still a huge improvement compared to the slightly less recent past.

Does anyone know what the actual impact of that decrease would be?

 

[Delvin4519]

T has ‘terrible options' if budget isn't straightened out, watchdog says

Public transportation is on the verge of an “existential crisis,” cities and towns that help fund the MBTA warned, as the system moves ahead with a budget plan that drains its reserves in the face of a looming deficit. A T subcommittee voted Thursday to advance a $3.02 billion fiscal year 2025...

www.nbcboston.com

T has ‘terrible options' if budget isn't straightened out, watchdog says

A T subcommittee voted Thursday to advance a $3.02 billion fiscal year 2025 budget that would effectively empty the MBTA's savings to help drive up spending by 11%, leaving no bulwark against a nearly $700 million gap forecast to hit in the following year.

"This comes at a time when MBTA ridership has not returned, and analysis suggests that it is unlikely to return anytime soon given both a flattening of growth versus general expectations for recovery.

The MBTA held a subcommittee meeting earlier this morning. MBTA watchdog warns of a serious crisis looming now just 1 year from now as the T readies to empty out its rainy day fund completely for FY2025. With recent news that NYC's MTA losing its congestion pricing plan, seems very bad for transit across the northeast.

 

[jklo]

I think we are at the point where if Pols/Business leaders are saying that 2019-style RTO is unrealistic by this time next year... then they need to decide on what to cut. Plus fare increases.

 

[DominusNovus]

I think we are at the point where if Pols/Business leaders are saying that 2019-style RTO is unrealistic by this time next year... then they need to decide on what to cut. Plus fare increases.

They damn well better kill RTO in its entirety for any jobs that can be done remotely. Its a ego-stroking farce.

 

[bigpicture7]

They damn well better kill RTO in its entirety for any jobs that can be done remotely. Its a ego-stroking farce.

Office utilization is almost, will eventually be, and should be, about 65% of 2019 levels.

 

[bigpicture7]

I think we are at the point where if Pols/Business leaders are saying that 2019-style RTO is unrealistic by this time next year... then they need to decide on what to cut. Plus fare increases.

I am not in favor of obligating anyone to commute whose work truly doesn't benefit from it, but your logic doesn't account for the fact that for some people who enjoy occasionally seeing their colleagues, the % of people using the T will in fact be a function of how fast/reliable the T is. It will not purely be a function of how "forced" people are to come in. Good transit induces demand. So, sure, fares may need to increase, but there is still a valid logic to maintaining some semblance of quality service.

 

[kdmc]

I'll also observe that even though transit ridership is still lower than pre-pandemic levels, VMT is back to normal and increasing. People are not going to work as often, but they are going somewhere.

Why are they choosing to drive instead of ride transit? Perhaps it's because their destinations are longer range, and/or less predictible, and/or less radial than the traditional 5day/wk commute to and from the office. Or, perhaps it's because service is worse now. Probably, it's both.

Either way, states could rise to the challenge and help their transit agencies harness this differently-patterned-yet-just-as-strong demand for transportation... or they could hang their head and submit to the service-funding death spiral while our roads become more and more congested and our atmosphere clogged with CO2. I know which side I'm on.

 

[jklo]

the % of people using the T will in fact be a function of how fast/reliable the T is. It will not purely be a function of how "forced" people are to come in.

The numbers suggest otherwise. That's why the revenue is down so much. Even hybrid workers aren't spending as much time and money, let alone remote/mostly remote.

That doesn't even include the Boston CRE property tax base which is also dwindling.

I'll also observe that even though transit ridership is still lower than pre-pandemic levels, VMT is back to normal and increasing. People are not going to work as often, but they are going somewhere.

Why are they choosing to drive instead of ride transit? Perhaps it's because their destinations are longer range, and/or less predictible, and/or less radial than the traditional 5day/wk commute to and from the office. Or, perhaps it's because service is worse now. Probably, it's both.

Driving around their town, doing fuckall, when they should be working.