Commuters Ditched Public Transit for Work From Home. Now There’s a Crisis.

Just gonna point out that people *like* bland and boring SFHs.
I'm always, always, always going to contest this, mostly because the counterfactual--that people don't like SFH and are essentially forced into it--is as untestable as the initial claim. There are almost too many factors to count:

1. It's not a secret to anyone here, I'd think, that in the vast majority of the country, you have no choice. It's been single-family home, or go live somewhere else, for decades. We're still in the early early stages of housing reform such that it someone doesn't want a SFH, there's an option out of an expensive (read: in high demand) city center, and most American developers haven't a clue how to build actual middle-class urban housing anymore, so the score is very much not settled on this argument.

2. The "American Dream" of a SFH with a white picket fence has about a million of its own variables in its sale as an ideal to the public: depictions of the alternative dense cityscapes as "drug-ridden crime dens" (which, again, has a hundred different causes, not least of which racism, and a classism that more or less starts with the industrial revolution), auto manufacturers/land developers trying to give people a reason to buy their products, biased tax assessments increasing urban housing's relative cost....This particular sub-heading goes on and on.

3. The increasing commodification of housing, which gives anyone who might own a home reason to perpetuate (2). By contrast, most urban housing is still rental, which means people don't have the dichotomous interests of house as home and house as asset. I'd argue (a hunch, I freely admit, more than anything) that this is a reason why people become more attached to cities they live in than suburbs: a home can just be a place to live, experienced as such, rather than being a something whose "value" needs to be protected for future sale.

There is a *very* strong negative correlation between population density and family size. Which is the cause and which is the effect is less obvious (most likely a feedback loop), but it is there.
This is another point where I feel like given how poorly understood the relationship is--and how many variables are involved in it--you really shouldn't use it in an argument. Human population dynamics is never going to relate simply to urbanism (or suburbanism, ruralism), especially now that issues of local pollution/health that cut off population density past a certain point are more or less completely dealt with. This is still a bit of a black box at this point in human history, and pointing at what you see and saying "that's probably what's happening here"--in support of almost any argument--is most likely going to be wrong.
 
and most American developers haven't a clue how to build actual middle-class urban housing anymore

Depends on your definition of middle class housing. 300k is very doable for NC. 250? I've seen it...

Thing is... these are in parts of the country where jobs that pay anything are rare. That's why the builders can offer those prices.

Imagine there's a huge reversal of WFH to the point where all those people who left to go wherever and remote jobs are nonexistent or only offer Bangladesh $$$ instead of Boston. What are they going to do? Is the US Gov going to bail them out, or the banks who gave them loans?
 
I'm always, always, always going to contest this, mostly because the counterfactual--that people don't like SFH and are essentially forced into it--is as untestable as the initial claim. There are almost too many factors to count:

1. It's not a secret to anyone here, I'd think, that in the vast majority of the country, you have no choice. It's been single-family home, or go live somewhere else, for decades. We're still in the early early stages of housing reform such that it someone doesn't want a SFH, there's an option out of an expensive (read: in high demand) city center, and most American developers haven't a clue how to build actual middle-class urban housing anymore, so the score is very much not settled on this argument.

2. The "American Dream" of a SFH with a white picket fence has about a million of its own variables in its sale as an ideal to the public: depictions of the alternative dense cityscapes as "drug-ridden crime dens" (which, again, has a hundred different causes, not least of which racism, and a classism that more or less starts with the industrial revolution), auto manufacturers/land developers trying to give people a reason to buy their products, biased tax assessments increasing urban housing's relative cost....This particular sub-heading goes on and on.

3. The increasing commodification of housing, which gives anyone who might own a home reason to perpetuate (2). By contrast, most urban housing is still rental, which means people don't have the dichotomous interests of house as home and house as asset. I'd argue (a hunch, I freely admit, more than anything) that this is a reason why people become more attached to cities they live in than suburbs: a home can just be a place to live, experienced as such, rather than being a something whose "value" needs to be protected for future sale.


This is another point where I feel like given how poorly understood the relationship is--and how many variables are involved in it--you really shouldn't use it in an argument. Human population dynamics is never going to relate simply to urbanism (or suburbanism, ruralism), especially now that issues of local pollution/health that cut off population density past a certain point are more or less completely dealt with. This is still a bit of a black box at this point in human history, and pointing at what you see and saying "that's probably what's happening here"--in support of almost any argument--is most likely going to be wrong.

1) Developers tend to build what is profitable for them to build, and that is correlated to what people want.
2) And yet, prior to 2020, there was loads of urban development.

There’s loads of research into how very strongly correlated family formation and low density is.
 
SARSCoV2019 / Covid proved that working from home can be done.

I went into the office every day and scanned the mail (front and backed) and emailed it to the departments it goes to who were working from home, and moral went up because they didn't have to bother with the MBTA. The hundreds of dollars in savings canceling those commuter rail passes meant more nice day trip vacations.
Everyone was happy they got extra hours in the day that they would've be stuck hustling-to/from (or on the MBTA pushing and shoving), or stuck in traffic and spending tons of money on parking to cut the commuter time in more than half. Most were happy when the work day was done they could simply close the laptop and dinner sometimes was already started for them. Work from home should continue! Most of the Boston restaurants can move out to the suburbs to chase the demographics shifts. But not reason for everyone to need to jam pack into Boston and the infrastructure isn't conducive for it anyway.
 
1) Developers tend to build what is profitable for them to build, and that is correlated to what people want.
2) And yet, prior to 2020, there was loads of urban development.

There’s loads of research into how very strongly correlated family formation and low density is.
1. I shouldn't have to tell you that it's not that simple; "what people want" is not a value that exists in a vacuum, nor is "profitable to build".
2. Yeah, but there really, really wasn't. Post the '08 financial crisis, housing construction dropped precipitously, and has still not reached that peak. You could very fairly argue that that was a bubble, but our population is still growing, and household sizes are still declining (ergo, more housing demand per population). The consensus post-mortem on the '08 crisis isn't necessarily that the level of housing construction was unsustainable, just that the mechanisms for financing it were.

I don't deny that there's a strong inverse correlation between population density and birth rates, but the issue is that there are few situations in which the causal link is well-established. Naturally, housing costs are a consideration, and when you have metro areas underbuilding, and often building smaller units, that's going to increase the cost of housing and consequently negatively impact family formation, regardless of what the density is. Saying A causes B, when in fact it may be C, D, E....that's the issue with saying "density CAUSES fewer child births".
 
It is true that a SFH might be too much (and certainly too expensive, here anyway) for a single person.
 
OK, let's support business growth in these places. Not easy, but not a "Maoist level of revolutionary change" either.

The Inner Core contains mostly streetcar suburbs. 1.6 million people, almost a quarter of MA's population.

Right, nobody in Camberville has kids, got it.

Just because I want things to be different doesn't mean I don't understand why they are the way they are. When I visit my old friends back in suburbia I don't preach to them about not driving--it's literally not a choice there, I get it. But the Inner Core isn't suburbia.

This is literally possible. It'll take relentless advocacy and politicians with courage, but it's possible.

Sorry, what? The average US city is 22% parking by surface area. We could infill like maniacs for decades without needing to touch suburban neighborhoods.

With this disappointing future on one end, and Maoist Urbanist Revolution Utopia on the other, I think there is something in the middle that is actually achievable in the next couple generations.
Nor sure why you're contesting any of my initial or responsive points. My original post was observing the fact that, given the fact that our entire settlement patterns and infrastructure have been built around 100 years of cars, it's a lot more difficult to retrofit that into anything close to smart growth. In most of Boston, Cambridge and Somerville, and some pockets of some of the other inner towns, development largely was complete by the time of the car, so it's a lot easier to just bring back trains on the one hand, and you already have density waiting there on the other.

You seem to be denying, however, the fact that Cambridge and Somerville are out of reach to a huge segment of the population. Replying that "right, nobody in Camberville has kids, got it" exposes a supreme lack of awareness on the very real problem that urbanistic policy, and liberal policy in general, has not translated into affordable and accessible neighborhoods for the many. Yes, of course children exist everywhere. It's impossible for many people to have kids and afford to live there, however, and this is why people with families are fleeing the out of control costs of these towns and cities. I hope you're not actually contesting this?

It is also incorrect to simply share a map that lumps entire towns outside Boston as "streetcar suburbs". Cambridge and Somerville in particular have both density and more importantly, density that was built around rail lines and streetcars to a degree that is not consistent in most of the other outlying towns. Moreover, due to the fact that Cambridge was, and remains, an independent employment base and cultural focal point that is distinct from Boston, it is in fact somewhat unique, as are the Cambridge suburbs which basically means Somerville and parts of Watertown. This has made these areas desirable and fed the continued success they see today. The same is simply not true of the towns south or southwest of Boston; Dedham, Milton, Quincy and Braintree all have pockets of density, but they are far from the urban core and unlike Cambridge or Somerville, there has never been a Harvard Square or diverse employment and cultural center to which its population can look—they were always, and remain, satellites of downtown Boston. In addition, they have large swathes of 1950s style neighborhoods that divide their small streetcar style corridors and commercial centers, not to mention other geographic barriers such as highways, large roads, empty areas, and a lack of co-orientation toward each other. I am well aware of Somerville's progress over the years; I grew up here, and I have watched it. But living in Somerville, one could always be oriented toward Cambridge and not Boston. In Newton, the orientation is either to downtown or Back Bay—there is no "Cambridge equivalent" whereby Newton might be equally pulled toward Wellesley or Needham in the way Somerville is pulled toward Cambridge. It's what makes these cities special, it's why they're great, and it's probably why you live there and not in Newton or Quincy.

I dont deny that there are areas with good bones, but there are just so many limitations to assuming that a Medford or an Everett could easily become a Somerville without both massive infrastructure investment in tunnels, as well as vastly increased density. And this is the urban core. We live in an era where the government does not invest in regional improvements on anywhere near the level it once did, and simultaneously, there are no longer corporations that perform this function the way railroad companies did in the 19th century. Consequently, investment is highly selective and the benefits often are completely outweighed by the massive gentrification that accompanies them. Therefore, the areas with good infrastructure and density, as well as—crucially—culture, are concentrated in areas that most people cant afford.

When I say a "Maoist style revolutionary change", I mean it. The degree to which the government and our society needs to change to reverse this problem is so immense it boggles the mind. You can point to the streetcar taxpayers that line Milton Square or Dedham Center all you want, but the problem is economic and the numbers are staggering. We see the politicians taking press photos every time some dense development in East Cambridge or Roslindale has a ribbon cutting, but each one of these is just an infinitesimal drop in the bucket for what we need. Housing costs in Massachusetts, especially the Boston region, have risen astronomically for decades. Even to stop the bleeding ands stabilize this rate of increase would require tens, probably hundreds of thousands of new housing units, but we dont need to stabilize the unaffordable housing costs: we need to lower them. I have yet to even see an analysis that really appreciates this; the 300,000 new units number that gets thrown around—assuming we built this in ten years—would assuredly not come close to a genuine change in the housing cost in the Greater Boston area.

And when you get the to the degree of resistance from every local town, and the fact that any building that is just slightly more dense than its environs, and still takes years of fighting and lawsuits and ZBA meetings, it's hard to imagine anything changing without something truly revolutionary in the state government that completely reorganizes the way political power is held and wielded across the state. Little micro-policies that sound great coming out of the Cambridge and Boston City Councils are never going to be able to effect anything close the changes we need. The problem is that we 1) lack any regional authority for planning what's best for the common good, and 2) we have a federal system that introduces a never-ending competition between states to race to the bottom when it comes to all the stuff that harms everyone, yet benefits both corporations and poor planning, and encourages lower taxes and disinvestment. Look where all the people from MA and NY go, they go to Texas and Florida, and other states that are cheap but have even worse planning and care of the people than we do here. There is only one way to reverse that, and that is with a reorganization of the national government, to coordinate spending in a fair way and to prevent what we have now, which is corporate threats to up and leave an "anti-business" state every time a state government proposes doing something that actually makes sense but alas, actually means it has to be paid for. This gets to the way the Constitution organizes authority across the states, and that ain't changing anytime soon. Look at Wu, they're all threatening to leave and scaring up the Chamber of Commerce folks. With policy that was nationally set, rather than setting every municipality and state against each other, this would not be an issue.

So yes, to truly make the changes that are needed, I dont see it as being possible with the way our government is organized, and even if those changes were made, we still have to contend with settlement patterns built around a car-centric way of living. The ideal would be if we'd known this 100 years ago and not built the suburbs at all. Probably a utilitarian solution would be to bulldoze most of them and herd people into the cities. I believe that is essentially what happened in China in the 1960s. Of course that sounds horrible because it threatens individual autonomy, the very principle held as sacrosanct in the West—and especially America—that is also the core "value" that prevents any sensible or rational policy that benefits the community over the individual.

I'm certainly not saying that advocating for change isn't worth it; it's always worth it. But I think people delude themselves on how much actual change is needed. A new rapid transit line every 40 years is not going to come close. If we built 20 new lines in the next ten years, changed the state constitution to enact full state planning for all zoning and rezoned the entire urban core for six stories minimum with a full blockade of any neighborhood ability to fight any development in court, that might start to solve the problem. Is something better than nothing? Of course. But the fact that Cambridge has very few families who can afford to live there, and the fact that all the neighborhoods with good transit are also extremely wealthy and elite, should be heeded a lot more than it is. To be clear, I absolutely do not think there's anything elitist about density or rapid transit, but that's how it's played out, and that is also something to contend with when it comes to changing hearts and minds.
 
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^^"Of course that sounds horrible because it threatens individual autonomy, the very principle held as sacrosanct in the West—and especially America—that is also the core "value" that prevents any sensible or rational policy that benefits the community over the individual."

Unless you, as an individual, are an immigrant. Or non-cishet. Or a female. Or a POC. Or poor, or homeless, or child, or elderly, or disabled, or unable to drive....

I definitely can't refute your overall point, but it's both sad that it's true, and yet also completely delusional to pretend that this is all because we "value" (and I do genuinely appreciate that you've put that in quotation marks) individual autonomy. I'm just among the many, many people waiting for mainstream America to realize that this has basically always been a lie, is still a lie, and that "any sensible or rational policy that benefits the community over the individual", in fact, often ends up serving more individuals, better, than one that does the opposite, because none of us ever fit any one conception of what an individual is over the course of our whole lifetimes.

I don't expect that change to happen in my lifetime. I'm just...tired.
 
You seem to be denying, however, the fact that Cambridge and Somerville are out of reach to a huge segment of the population. Replying that "right, nobody in Camberville has kids, got it" exposes a supreme lack of awareness on the very real problem that urbanistic policy, and liberal policy in general, has not translated into affordable and accessible neighborhoods for the many.

The many can though... if they are willing to shack up.
 
Ridership and fare revenues are down at the MBTA into 2024, as garbage headways, slow zones, and shutdowns for slow zone repairs, deter riders away from the MBTA. Meanwhile Boston endures more persistent heat waves with more brutal Amazon-like summers.

WMATA stands out in stark contrast as WMATA improved frequency and reliability on their system, increasing service beyond pre-pandemic levels, including new service to Dulles Airport with the SLX in 2022.


1721408799884.png


1721408937539.png
 
Ridership and fare revenues are down at the MBTA into 2024, as garbage headways, slow zones, and shutdowns for slow zone repairs, deter riders away from the MBTA. Meanwhile Boston endures more persistent heat waves with more brutal Amazon-like summers.

WMATA stands out in stark contrast as WMATA improved frequency and reliability on their system, increasing service beyond pre-pandemic levels, including new service to Dulles Airport with the SLX in 2022.

I award this the "D4": Doomscroller Delvin's Doompost of the Day
 
Ridership and fare revenues are down at the MBTA into 2024, as garbage headways, slow zones, and shutdowns for slow zone repairs, deter riders away from the MBTA. Meanwhile Boston endures more persistent heat waves with more brutal Amazon-like summers.

WMATA stands out in stark contrast as WMATA improved frequency and reliability on their system, increasing service beyond pre-pandemic levels, including new service to Dulles Airport with the SLX in 2022.


View attachment 52893

View attachment 52894
WMATA did their major line closures in 2021-2022. IIRC Yellow and Blue were closed for almost a year for repairs. Even into this year, sections of the Red Line are closed for three solid months.

I wonder if Boston could handle the Red Line being closed for an entire year?
 
WMATA did their major line closures in 2021-2022. IIRC Yellow and Blue were closed for almost a year for repairs. Even into this year, sections of the Red Line are closed for three solid months.

I wonder if Boston could handle the Red Line being closed for an entire year?
That was also when WMATA had pulled the entire 7000 fleet from service, plus the Dulles extension opened at the end of 2022.
 
Transit agencies AROUND THE WORLD are resorting to FARE HIKES to cover the loss of riders from work from home.

Just awful. COVID has truly been a disaster for transit. Things were looking up pre-COVID and now since the pandemic, dozens of transit death spirals.

Making the train 11% more expensive compared to 2.5% inflation, isn't going to attract riders back! They're just going to hop back in their cars if the cost of taking the train skyrockets!



1722555546701.png
 
Transit agencies AROUND THE WORLD are resorting to FARE HIKES to cover the loss of riders from work from home.

Just awful. COVID has truly been a disaster for transit. Things were looking up pre-COVID and now since the pandemic, dozens of transit death spirals.

Making the train 11% more expensive compared to 2.5% inflation, isn't going to attract riders back! They're just going to hop back in their cars if the cost of taking the train skyrockets!



View attachment 53442
So... When was the last time NS hiked fares? If it's been a few years, you'd need a relatively larger increase to "catch up" with inflation. Per that article, fares hadn't gone up "since 2020." It'd be quite reasonable to say that cumulative inflation hit at least 8.7% - the actual proposed hike - over the 5 year period they're looking at. A quick Google suggests it's more than that, since the Netherlands had 10% in 2022 alone, so any price increase below the actual inflation amount should still be thought of as a price reduction in purchasing power terms.

Looking at the MBTA, we last hiked fares in March 2019 - per the BLS calculator, $2.40 then is worth $2.97 now - to come close to realizing the same "value" of a fare, the T would need to hike fares by 23%.
 
So... When was the last time NS hiked fares? If it's been a few years, you'd need a relatively larger increase to "catch up" with inflation. Per that article, fares hadn't gone up "since 2020." It'd be quite reasonable to say that cumulative inflation hit at least 8.7% - the actual proposed hike - over the 5 year period they're looking at. A quick Google suggests it's more than that, since the Netherlands had 10% in 2022 alone, so any price increase below the actual inflation amount should still be thought of as a price reduction in purchasing power terms.

Looking at the MBTA, we last hiked fares in March 2019 - per the BLS calculator, $2.40 then is worth $2.97 now - to come close to realizing the same "value" of a fare, the T would need to hike fares by 23%.
About a year ago, and it's already very expensive for single journeys. Rotterdam Centraal to Utrecht Centraal is €12.40 one way, or about $13.50. For a comparable trip on the CR it's $11. I have the 40% discount off-peak subscription which is around €70 per year (and basically always worth it) but distance based fares mean that to go basically anywhere else in the country is still ~€35 round trip, or around €60 if I need to travel during peak hours.

Compare that to Germany where you can pay €50 per month and travel as much as you want on any local and regional transport, a similar ticket in NL costs more than 4 times as much and doesn't even include any intercity transport.
 
So... When was the last time NS hiked fares? If it's been a few years, you'd need a relatively larger increase to "catch up" with inflation. Per that article, fares hadn't gone up "since 2020." It'd be quite reasonable to say that cumulative inflation hit at least 8.7% - the actual proposed hike - over the 5 year period they're looking at. A quick Google suggests it's more than that, since the Netherlands had 10% in 2022 alone, so any price increase below the actual inflation amount should still be thought of as a price reduction in purchasing power terms.

Looking at the MBTA, we last hiked fares in March 2019 - per the BLS calculator, $2.40 then is worth $2.97 now - to come close to realizing the same "value" of a fare, the T would need to hike fares by 23%.
FWIW, when I was in Singapore, they were doing routine fare adjustments every couple years to catch up with inflation. (Though they also have a very detailed fare table with 20 possible fares or so, thanks to a fully distance-based fare with tap-offs on all modes.)
 
A few more news articles got published in the media field tangentally related to this topic that I've ran across. These articles are all new, with publish dates in August 2024:

Boston’s Broke and Broken Transit System Hurts Downtown Recovery​

Briah Cooley typically takes public transit to her job at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston — if the train actually shows up.

Ahead of her commute on a sweltering July morning, a maintenance vehicle derailed, damaging tracks and triggering a temporary shutdown of the subway route that connects Boston’s south side. The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority offered free shuttle buses but Cooley, faced with more than an hour in peak traffic, opted to work from home instead.

Incidents like this have the 25-year-old clinical research coordinator rethinking her future in the Boston area.

The rest of the world is building subways like crazy. The U.S. has pretty much given up.

As the U.S. lavishes billions on highway expansions and subsidizes tricked-out SUVs, other countries are investing in transit systems that are setting new standards for speed, convenience, and technology. Increasingly, transportation is looking like another area of American exceptionalism.

Los Angeles and Seattle are the only cities in the U.S. whose transit development plans come remotely close to those seen in other global cities. And while their future transit maps are impressive, all of those colorful lines don’t mean the same things as the ones on Istanbul’s transit map. LA and Seattle’s light rail lines are not nearly as fast, frequent, or high-capacity as the heavy rail metros being built in other countries.
 
A new article from StreetsBLOG USA last week:

‘Doom Loop’ Alert: Transit Systems are Suffering — And Too Many Are Cutting Service​

Ridership is still down, inflation, labor costs, pensions, and other operating costs are up, and many systems are slashing service. This is bad.
 
The end of federal COVID relief funds, and the refusal of Pensylvania's leadership to fund SEPTA; has left SEPTA forced to increase fares and cut transit service by the start of the upcoming presidential administration. This is all despite Governor Shapiro's proposals to shift more funding to SEPTA.

SEPTA was also going to conduct a bus network redesign, that is now cancelled and instead SEPTA will have to cut transit service instead.


SEPTA’s budget crisis continued playing out this week, as officials announced the postponement of its Bus Revolution initiative and a top state Senate Republican applauded the agency for a planned 29% fare hike.

SEPTA chief operating officer Scott Sauer said this week that the fare hikes and possible service cuts are expected to lead to a 23% drop in ridership and a potential “death spiral” of falling revenues and further reductions in service.

In the transcribed remarks, Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward said any funding boost would also have to cover needs in the many counties across Pennsylvania that have little or no transit.

Some Republicans have discussed paying for an increase in transportation funding with a new tax on video gambling machines. Shapiro and Democratic legislators said they would support such a plan, but Senate Republicans are divided over the size of the tax and have not introduced legislation to create one.

Hard to be optimistic about the T's fiscal cliff and the likely dry-up of federal funds going into the new administration, seeing what's transpiring down with SEPTA.

After 4 years, all of the federal COVID relief funds has been exhausted, alongside the T's rainy day fund. The MBTA was only able to forgo its 2021 service cuts after the infusion of federal funds in early 2021. Though the T reduced service by about 15% systemwide for over 3 years since than anyways.
 

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