CORVID-19 (Wuhan coronavirus) and potential impact on Logan & Boston travel and tourism

DominusNovus

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@whighlander
Your numbers on the Spanish Flu are off by an order of magnitude; it was in the ballpark of 50 million, not 500 million. Still huge, but not 1/3 of humanity huge.
 

whighlander

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@whighlander
Your numbers on the Spanish Flu are off by an order of magnitude; it was in the ballpark of 50 million, not 500 million. Still huge, but not 1/3 of humanity huge.
DominusNovus -- I think you misread my posting -- perhaps I was not totally transparent as a couple of sources were involved.

Direct from the CDC website -- the "Gold Standard" of Infectious disease statistics -- with only my use of highlighting
1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus)

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

So -- it was a bad one -- No questions on that [there are some uncertainties with some of the numbers given that it effected places not exactly up to then modern standards]

However the real question [hypothetical] -- What would 1918 H1N1 have been like --- if everything about the virus was the same as then -- just transplant the Pandemic to Now in terms of medical science and technology??? --- of course it would also be able to spread by hours instead of weeks -- so who really knows
 

DominusNovus

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DominusNovus -- I think you misread my posting -- perhaps I was not totally transparent as a couple of sources were involved.

Direct from the CDC website -- the "Gold Standard" of Infectious disease statistics -- with only my use of highlighting



So -- it was a bad one -- No questions on that [there are some uncertainties with some of the numbers given that it effected places not exactly up to then modern standards]

However the real question [hypothetical] -- What would 1918 H1N1 have been like --- if everything about the virus was the same as then -- just transplant the Pandemic to Now in terms of medical science and technology??? --- of course it would also be able to spread by hours instead of weeks -- so who really knows
Ah, yeah, I skimmed through and it looked like you were saying 500 million deaths, not infections. My mistake.
 

whighlander

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Ah, yeah, I skimmed through and it looked like you were saying 500 million deaths, not infections. My mistake.
DominusNovus -- by the way Today's CDC numbers [actually 5 PM EST 02/14/20] for COVID-19 name of the disease apparently caused by the SARS-COV2 virus. Over 67191 Cases have been reported world wide with 1527 deaths -- mortality rate still about or below 2%:
  1. US:
    1. 0 deaths --- a few people still hospitalized
    2. 15 Laboratory Diagnosed Infections
    3. 600 under quarantine [people repatriated from Wuhan on chartered flights, etc.]
    4. 80+ still being monitored [mostly temperature]
    5. 1 Case definitely transmitted person to person [most probably occurring in US], several others possible
  2. World Wide outside China [not counting US or China]:
    1. 3 Deaths [1 Japan -- Japanese returning home from Wuhan, 1 Philippines -- Chinese Citizen arriving in the Philippines from Wuhan, 1 France -- a Chinese Tourist visiting France]
    2. 505 Laboratory Confirmed Cases in 26 Countries
    3. Several hundred in several countries being monitored as possible
  3. China:
    1. 1524 deaths
    2. more than 10,000 "Serious Cases"
    3. more than 66,000 cases -- 45,000 verified by Lab tests of respiratory samples
      1. many recent "diagnosis" by X-ray and symptoms only
    4. China Medical Personnel:
      1. 6 deaths
      2. 1700 Infections
For Perspective:
the CDC reports on the recently increasing infections by the B Strain of the H1NI Flu [Note the total numbers include the A Strain infections prevalent earlier this year ]
  1. over 26 Million officially diagnosed cases
  2. over 14,000 deaths

from most recent CDC Briefing partially edited Transcript [with my highlight]
BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW NOW, WE BELIEVE THIS VIRUS SPREADS MAINLY FROM PERSON TO PERSON AMONG CLOSE CONTACTS. WHICH IS DEFINED ABOUT SIX FEET. THROUGH RESPIRATORY DROPLETS PRODUCED WHEN AN INFECTED PERSON COUGHS OR SNEEZES. PEOPLE ARE THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST CONTAGEOUS WHEN THEY’RE MOST SYSTEMATIC. THAT’S WHEN THEY’RE THE SICKEST. SOME SPREAD MAY HAPPEN BY TOUCHING THE CONTAMINATED SURFACE AND TOUCHING THE EYES, NOSE AND MOUTH. BUT REMEMBER THIS DOES NOT LAST LONG ON SURFACES. SOME SPREAD MAY HAPPEN BEFORE PEOPLE SHOW SYMPTOMS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF THIS WITH THE NEW CORONAVIRUS AND IT IS COMPATIBLE WITH WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT OTHER RESPIRATORY VIRUSES INCLUDING SEASONAL FLU. BUT RIGHT NOW, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THESE LAST TWO FORMS OF TRANSMISSION ARE THE MAIN DRIVER OF SPREAD.

References:
  1. CDC
  2. WHO
  3. In addition to CDC and WHO the following Wikipedia is very extensive with hundreds of references
    1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
 

stellarfun

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Now that the big changes to international carriers’ China schedules have settled down with a loss of about two-thirds of airline capacity for that country over the next couple of months at least, we’re getting a first look at what that will mean for the airline industry as a whole – and the numbers aren’t good. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said this week that worldwide airline traffic this year is now expected to decline by 4.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus situation – more than the annual 4.1 percent growth rate that IATA had predicted earlier for 2020. That will give the airlines “the first overall decline in demand since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09,” IATA said, and it will mean a loss of at least $29.3 billion in passenger revenues – although some of that loss will be offset by reduced spending on fuel. The worst impact will be on carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, IATA said, which are expected to suffer a 13 percent.
https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/Routes-United-CRJ-550s-India-15074396.phpdrop in passenger demand this year.
^^^ This is the San Francisco Chronicle

It does appear from the new cases being reported on different continents, that COVID-19 is on the verge of becoming a pandemic. And because of revisions in the reporting criteria adopted by China, the number of new cases being reported in China has slowed markedly.
 

jass

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Several countries have blocked flights from Iran. Obviously not an issue at Logan, but we could quickly see flights being dropped from a variety of regions.

I think a lot of major companies are going to move to teleconferences instead of in-person meetings.

Which is great news for carbon reductions!
 

Java King

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My conference in Singapore for the first week of April was just cancelled last week. Now I get to fight for a refund!
 

stellarfun

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United's earnings guidance from yesterday.
....As a result of COVID-19, we are currently seeing an approximately 100% decline in near-term demand to China and an approximately 75% decline in near-term demand on the rest of our trans-Pacific routes. We are managing our business to minimize the operational and financial disruption.
.....due to the heightened uncertainty surrounding this outbreak, its duration, its impact on overall demand for air travel and the possibility the outbreak spreads to other regions, the Company is withdrawing all full-year 2020 guidance issued on January 21, 2020.
 

stellarfun

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Americans should brace for the likelihood that the coronavirus will spread to communities in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Tuesday.

“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

She said that public health officials have no idea whether the spread of the disease to the United States would be mild or severe, but that Americans should be ready for a significant disruption to their daily lives.

“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad,” Dr. Messonnier said.
 

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