COVID-19 Impacts on Logan, MBTA, and Boston travel and tourism

@whighlander
Your numbers on the Spanish Flu are off by an order of magnitude; it was in the ballpark of 50 million, not 500 million. Still huge, but not 1/3 of humanity huge.
 
DominusNovus said:
@whighlander
Your numbers on the Spanish Flu are off by an order of magnitude; it was in the ballpark of 50 million, not 500 million. Still huge, but not 1/3 of humanity huge.
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DominusNovus -- I think you misread my posting -- perhaps I was not totally transparent as a couple of sources were involved.

Direct from the CDC website -- the "Gold Standard" of Infectious disease statistics -- with only my use of highlighting

1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

Everything you need to know about the flu illness, including symptoms, treatment and prevention.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus)

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.
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So -- it was a bad one -- No questions on that [there are some uncertainties with some of the numbers given that it effected places not exactly up to then modern standards]

However the real question [hypothetical] -- What would 1918 H1N1 have been like --- if everything about the virus was the same as then -- just transplant the Pandemic to Now in terms of medical science and technology??? --- of course it would also be able to spread by hours instead of weeks -- so who really knows
 
whighlander said:
DominusNovus -- I think you misread my posting -- perhaps I was not totally transparent as a couple of sources were involved.

Direct from the CDC website -- the "Gold Standard" of Infectious disease statistics -- with only my use of highlighting

1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

Everything you need to know about the flu illness, including symptoms, treatment and prevention.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov



So -- it was a bad one -- No questions on that [there are some uncertainties with some of the numbers given that it effected places not exactly up to then modern standards]

However the real question [hypothetical] -- What would 1918 H1N1 have been like --- if everything about the virus was the same as then -- just transplant the Pandemic to Now in terms of medical science and technology??? --- of course it would also be able to spread by hours instead of weeks -- so who really knows
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Ah, yeah, I skimmed through and it looked like you were saying 500 million deaths, not infections. My mistake.
 
DominusNovus said:
Ah, yeah, I skimmed through and it looked like you were saying 500 million deaths, not infections. My mistake.
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DominusNovus -- by the way Today's CDC numbers [actually 5 PM EST 02/14/20] for COVID-19 name of the disease apparently caused by the SARS-COV2 virus. Over 67191 Cases have been reported world wide with 1527 deaths -- mortality rate still about or below 2%:
  1. US:
    1. 0 deaths --- a few people still hospitalized
    2. 15 Laboratory Diagnosed Infections
    3. 600 under quarantine [people repatriated from Wuhan on chartered flights, etc.]
    4. 80+ still being monitored [mostly temperature]
    5. 1 Case definitely transmitted person to person [most probably occurring in US], several others possible
  2. World Wide outside China [not counting US or China]:
    1. 3 Deaths [1 Japan -- Japanese returning home from Wuhan, 1 Philippines -- Chinese Citizen arriving in the Philippines from Wuhan, 1 France -- a Chinese Tourist visiting France]
    2. 505 Laboratory Confirmed Cases in 26 Countries
    3. Several hundred in several countries being monitored as possible
  3. China:
    1. 1524 deaths
    2. more than 10,000 "Serious Cases"
    3. more than 66,000 cases -- 45,000 verified by Lab tests of respiratory samples
      1. many recent "diagnosis" by X-ray and symptoms only
    4. China Medical Personnel:
      1. 6 deaths
      2. 1700 Infections
For Perspective:
the CDC reports on the recently increasing infections by the B Strain of the H1NI Flu [Note the total numbers include the A Strain infections prevalent earlier this year ]
  1. over 26 Million officially diagnosed cases
  2. over 14,000 deaths

from most recent CDC Briefing partially edited Transcript [with my highlight]
BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW NOW, WE BELIEVE THIS VIRUS SPREADS MAINLY FROM PERSON TO PERSON AMONG CLOSE CONTACTS. WHICH IS DEFINED ABOUT SIX FEET. THROUGH RESPIRATORY DROPLETS PRODUCED WHEN AN INFECTED PERSON COUGHS OR SNEEZES. PEOPLE ARE THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST CONTAGEOUS WHEN THEY’RE MOST SYSTEMATIC. THAT’S WHEN THEY’RE THE SICKEST. SOME SPREAD MAY HAPPEN BY TOUCHING THE CONTAMINATED SURFACE AND TOUCHING THE EYES, NOSE AND MOUTH. BUT REMEMBER THIS DOES NOT LAST LONG ON SURFACES. SOME SPREAD MAY HAPPEN BEFORE PEOPLE SHOW SYMPTOMS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF THIS WITH THE NEW CORONAVIRUS AND IT IS COMPATIBLE WITH WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT OTHER RESPIRATORY VIRUSES INCLUDING SEASONAL FLU. BUT RIGHT NOW, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THESE LAST TWO FORMS OF TRANSMISSION ARE THE MAIN DRIVER OF SPREAD.
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References:
  1. CDC
  2. WHO
  3. In addition to CDC and WHO the following Wikipedia is very extensive with hundreds of references
    1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
 
Now that the big changes to international carriers’ China schedules have settled down with a loss of about two-thirds of airline capacity for that country over the next couple of months at least, we’re getting a first look at what that will mean for the airline industry as a whole – and the numbers aren’t good. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said this week that worldwide airline traffic this year is now expected to decline by 4.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus situation – more than the annual 4.1 percent growth rate that IATA had predicted earlier for 2020. That will give the airlines “the first overall decline in demand since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09,” IATA said, and it will mean a loss of at least $29.3 billion in passenger revenues – although some of that loss will be offset by reduced spending on fuel. The worst impact will be on carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, IATA said, which are expected to suffer a 13 percent.
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https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/Routes-United-CRJ-550s-India-15074396.phpdrop in passenger demand this year.
^^^ This is the San Francisco Chronicle

It does appear from the new cases being reported on different continents, that COVID-19 is on the verge of becoming a pandemic. And because of revisions in the reporting criteria adopted by China, the number of new cases being reported in China has slowed markedly.
 
Several countries have blocked flights from Iran. Obviously not an issue at Logan, but we could quickly see flights being dropped from a variety of regions.

I think a lot of major companies are going to move to teleconferences instead of in-person meetings.

Which is great news for carbon reductions!
 
My conference in Singapore for the first week of April was just cancelled last week. Now I get to fight for a refund!
 
United's earnings guidance from yesterday.
....As a result of COVID-19, we are currently seeing an approximately 100% decline in near-term demand to China and an approximately 75% decline in near-term demand on the rest of our trans-Pacific routes. We are managing our business to minimize the operational and financial disruption.
.....due to the heightened uncertainty surrounding this outbreak, its duration, its impact on overall demand for air travel and the possibility the outbreak spreads to other regions, the Company is withdrawing all full-year 2020 guidance issued on January 21, 2020.
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Americans should brace for the likelihood that the coronavirus will spread to communities in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Tuesday.

“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

She said that public health officials have no idea whether the spread of the disease to the United States would be mild or severe, but that Americans should be ready for a significant disruption to their daily lives.

“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad,” Dr. Messonnier said.
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www.nytimes.com

U.S. Soldier Tests Positive for Virus in South Korea (Published 2020)

The soldier, the first U.S. service member known to be infected, has been quarantined in his off-base residence, the military said.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
Airlines cutting flights to Asia.

United Airlines announced it would cancel some flights to Japan, Singapore and Seoul .... Delta Air Lines this week also suspended service between its hub at Minneapolis-St. Paul and South Korea from Feb. 29 through the end of April. It is reducing flights between South Korea and Atlanta, Detroit and Seattle through April 30 ........Hawaiian Airlines suspended nonstop service between Honolulu’s Daniel K. Inouye International and Seoul’s Incheon airports starting March 2 and through the end of April..............

A survey released this week by the Global Business Travel Association estimated the virus could potentially cost the industry $46.6 billion per month. That number equates to $559.7 billion annually.

A snap poll of association members this week found the virus has had a major impact on business travel to Asia, with 95 percent of companies reporting cancellations or suspensions of most or all business travel to China.
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BTW, folks, this is the best resource for daily updated Coronavirus global stats. What a great overall website also:

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 125,575,245 Cases and 2,759,197 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
Provide hyperlinks to info instead of long, poorly formatted info-dumps
shmessy said:
BTW, folks, this is the best resource for daily updated Coronavirus global stats. What a great overall website also:

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 125,575,245 Cases and 2,759,197 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
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Shmessy -- if you want the "Official Status" on a global scale then you need to download the daily update from WHO
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Situation Report – 39
Data as reported by 10AM CET 28 February 2020 [i.e. 4AM EST]
Five new Member States (Belarus, Lithuania, Netherlands, New Zealand, and Nigeria) reported cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours.

SITUATION IN NUMBERS
total and new cases in last 24 hours
Globally
83 652 confirmed (1358 new)

China
78 961 confirmed (331 new)
2791 deaths (44 new)

Outside of China
4691 confirmed (1027 new)
51 countries (5 new)
67 deaths (10 new)

from the US official source the CDC website
www.cdc.gov

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
Confirmed and Presumptive Positive Cases in the United States
Cases among Persons Repatriated to the United States
States with Confirmed Cases of COVID-19
Updated February 28, 2020

This page will be updated regularly on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.
COVID-19: Confirmed and Presumptive Positive Cases in the United States*
COVID-19: Confirmed Cases in the United States*†
ConfirmedPresumptive Positive**
Travel-related120
Person-to-person spread30
Total confirmed cases150
Total tested459N/A
* This table represents cases detected and tested in the United States through U.S. public health surveillance systems since January 21, 2020. It does not include people who returned to the U.S. via State Department-chartered flights.

** A presumptive positive case has tested positive by a public health laboratory and is pending confirmatory testing at CDC.


COVID-19: Cases among Persons Repatriated to the United States
COVID-19: Cases among Persons Repatriated to the United States†
Positive
Wuhan, China3
Diamond Princess Cruise Ship†44
† Cases have laboratory confirmation and may or may not have been symptomatic.



Which if you can do some simple arithmetic -- in the US:
total number of confirmed cases: 62
15 of which occurred directly from people traveling or from close contact [i.e. spouse]
3 directly repatriated from Wuhan
44 repatriated from the Diamond Princess [Yokohama Japan]

Finally here's the list [of "yes" states with confirmed cases]
Arizona
California
Illinois
Massachusetts
Washington
Wisconsin
[MOD Note: 44 "no" States edited out]
 
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The cogent and efficient Worldometer site is showing the global growth rate of death from the Coronavirus is not compounding at this point.

Jan 22 - Feb 1: 17 - 304 - almost 18x
Feb 1 - Feb 10: 304 - 1,018 - more than 3x
Feb 10 - Feb 29: 1,018 - 2,977 - less than 3x

***The first 3 graphs in the link are illustrative.

Perhaps due to improvements in treatment regimen and speed to diagnose (except in Iran, evidently). However, the geographic spread of the virus looks to be unstoppable at this time. Also, important to note, the growing demographic stats coming in are showing the vast majority of the deaths are from people 65 and older with pre-existing cardio/diabetic, pulmonary conditions:

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer

Updated total and statistics, graphs and charts tracking the total number of deaths, deaths per day, and death by country from the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
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shmessy said:
The cogent and efficient Worldometer site is showing the global growth rate of death from the Coronavirus is not compounding at this point.

Jan 22 - Feb 1: 17 - 304 - almost 18x
Feb 1 - Feb 10: 304 - 1,018 - more than 3x
Feb 10 - Feb 29: 1,018 - 2,977 - less than 3x

***The first 3 graphs in the link are illustrative.

Perhaps due to improvements in treatment regimen and speed to diagnose (except in Iran, evidently). However, the geographic spread of the virus looks to be unstoppable at this time. Also, important to note, the growing demographic stats coming in are showing the vast majority of the deaths are from people 65 and older with pre-existing cardio/diabetic, pulmonary conditions:

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer

Updated total and statistics, graphs and charts tracking the total number of deaths, deaths per day, and death by country from the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
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Shmessy -- At this point there is no effective treatment for the Virus. The only treatment is what used to be done for the Flu before Tamiflu -- drink lots of fluids, control the fever and rest. Of course if the person needs Oxygen or assisted breathing in a clinic that can be provided as well.

No --- the problem with the Global COVID-19 plots of deaths / infection -- is that the data used in the various ratios is deprived from many different sources with a range of poor to good quality and reliability. In Hubei Province in China early on there were undoubtedly hundreds if not thousands of people who were infected but never sought treatment and hence are an unknown in the denominator. Similarly, in China with a population in the 1+ Billion there are probably hundreds of millions of rural folks who never enter the healthcare system. Last year China announced that almost 10 Million people died of all causes -- about 27,000 per day.

Some number of elderly people pass away everyday with nothing noted other than their date of death, as there are no autopsies or even cause of death noted for them. Let's assume that a few hundred to a thousand died because of the COVID-19 infection some of whom might have had COPD or Congestive Heart Failure --- the contribution of the virus to their death might never be noted either. That makes the numerator suspect as well.

Now once the infection spread to countries like Japan, Korea or Italy much more reliable and through statistics are available. However even in the "West" some of the numbers are soft because of cases of sub-clinical severity or uncertain diagnosis, multiple diseases, etc.

For comparison last year in the US the CDC has recently released
2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates
www.cdc.gov

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 22, 2020, there have been:
32,000,000 – 45,000,000 flu illnesses
14,000,000 – 21,000,000 flu medical visits
310,000 – 560,000 flu hospitalizations
18,000 – 46,000 flu deaths

So -- the simple answer is that with COVID-19 -- we really don't know either how virulent or how lethal !

Just keep washing and avoid close range contact with people who are coughing or sneezing -- although most of what they are distributing is the "Common Cold" or the Flu
 
A couple things about the title of this thread: there is no R in Covid-19 and "Wuhan" was never part of the informal name prior to the official naming.
 
United Airlines will cut domestic flights by 10 percent and international flights by 20 percent next month, and executives are planning “similar reductions” in May, the airline said Wednesday, underscoring the drop-off in demand for air travel given the worldwide spread of the coronavirus.
....
The airline is seeking volunteers at the company to take unpaid leaves of absence and is instituting a hiring freeze “except for roles that are critical to our operation,” the executives said, noting that management and administrative salary increases are also being delayed.
....
“Airlines are experiencing double-digit declines in demand, and on many routes traffic has collapsed,” Alexandre de Juniac, director general of the International Air Transport Association, said in a statement. The group noted that China’s Transport Ministry “reported an 80% annual fall in volumes in late January and early February.”
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Korean Air is suspending and trimming all of their US routes. Boston, Las Vegas, Seattle and Dallas/Ft. Worth will all be suspended as of this weekend until late April. New York - JFK, Los Angeles, Chicago - O'Hare, Washington - Dulles, Atlanta and San Francisco will all see frequencies reduced and/or smaller planes substituted in.
 
JetBlue, which focuses primarily on the domestic market, will cut capacity 5% in the near term and watch booking trends to assess whether additional reductions are needed,
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Not major, but presumably at least some of those cuts will be on Logan routes.

Bloomberg Article
 
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