Crazy Transit Pitches

Likewise, I think the impacts of a new rapid transit route (Fairmount) on nearby bus routes may be overestimated.
The 16 from Four Corners/Geneva to Uphams Corner parallels closely with the Fairmount line. It doesn't overlap as well as the 80 bus with the GLX, so the drop would probably be a bit less.

Also, refer to the earlier thought exercise posted here in an earlier thread, where this topic of removing bus route duplication along rail corridors is looked into.
 
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Great analysis!

I intend to revisit this with more detailed followups in a few weeks once I get a chance to look at the data, but a few quick conjectures based on my current assumptions:
  • There actually is data on how many SL4/5 riders boarding at Nubian transfer from other buses, as I mentioned here. Those are less reliable than the ridership data as they're based on surveys with sample sizes in the 200-300 range, but looks like 73% of them come from other buses. Not only does that indicate demand from Nubian itself that's still notable (27%), but it shows that lack of a quick rapid transit connection is really holding the corridor back, as the numeber of riders on Nubian radial buses that ride to Ruggles is 2x the number of SL5 riders that board at Nubian after transferring from another bus.
  • I don't think it's reasonable to make the assumption that most or all riders currently boarding at stops near Fairmount stations alight at Nubian. Like I said in the linked comment, turnover on many Nubian routes is very high, much more so than your average radial route. It's very possible, if not likely, that a significant chunk or riders boarding near Uphams Corner, Four Corners and especially BHA stations get off at or before Warren St, while a new group of riders board from Grove Hall and transfer at Nubian. The latter will not be served by Fairmount.
  • Likewise, I think the impacts of a new rapid transit route (Fairmount) on nearby bus routes may be overestimated. Delvin did an analysis of ridership of Somerville/Medford buses after GLX opened: Only the 80 really plummeted, but it literally follows GLX at every stop (and it still has half the ridership). Even the 88 and 90, which run very closely to GLX, didn't suffer that much, while routes that cross a single GLX station (86, 87, 89, 91, 94, 96) and parallel routes (87, 89, 101) didn't see much noticeable dent at all. I'll remark that the 87's and 101's corridors are roughly as far from GLX Medford/Tufts branch as the 28 is from Fairmount, and the BNRD even makes both of them 15-min corridors (87 west of Union Square), despite running parallel to GLX. So I think there will still be significant demand to Nubian, even after improvements on Fairmount.
  • Lastly, there are social justice issues at hand that go beyond just ridership numbers. More than 3/4 of riders boarding SL4/5 at Nubian are persons of color. And this is a corridor that had rapid transit taken away and was slapped with a bus for the promised "equal or better" service. Given much higher ridership than the GL surface branches (Nubian is simply not comparable to Harvard Ave regardless of how many riders you siphon off via Fairmount), I don't think giving them equal treatment as the GL branches (which would have been bustituted in an alternative universe) is justified.
Thanks for the information on transfers at Nubian, there's a lot of data there I'll need to look over. It seems like there isn't any data on what specific buses people transfer between, which is unfortunate, but it's still very useful. For the Fairmount Line the next step of the analysis will probably be looking at only Northbound boardings/loads to get a rough picture of what kinds of trips people are making. You're definitely right about Warren St being a major ridership source, a rough estimate has around 25k weekly boardings along that section, and it's definitely underserved by rapid transit.

As a last note, my understanding of the history here might be incomplete, but I have always understood that a Washington St LRT was generally expected to replace the El, and that this was an acceptable solution for those in the area. I think it was generally understood that removing the El and making the neighborhood generally a better place would have some trade-offs for travel time, but obviously nobody was picturing a glorified local bus that took 2-3x as long, and the cancellation of SL Phase III was just an extra slap in the face.
 
Thanks for the information on transfers at Nubian, there's a lot of data there I'll need to look over. It seems like there isn't any data on what specific buses people transfer between, which is unfortunate, but it's still very useful.
One thing to note when using that dataset: it's much more valuable for looking at ratios of passengers. The raw numbers themselves are just the numbers of people willing to answer the survey. (And of course there will be some bias in there, based on whose willing to respond to a slightly lengthy survey.) But yeah, it's a really cool dataset.
As a last note, my understanding of the history here might be incomplete, but I have always understood that a Washington St LRT was generally expected to replace the El, and that this was an acceptable solution for those in the area. I think it was generally understood that removing the El and making the neighborhood generally a better place would have some trade-offs for travel time, but obviously nobody was picturing a glorified local bus that took 2-3x as long, and the cancellation of SL Phase III was just an extra slap in the face.
This is a really interesting question, and worth some digging to learn more about. Two points come to mind:

First -- and I know this is not what you are saying -- there are lots of decisions that were made 40 years ago that we no longer accept the logic of. Just because someone, or some group, agreed 40 years ago that a surface route was the best replacement, it doesn't mean that logic still holds today.

Second, my question is, whom are we referring to when we say "those in the area"? Because the removal of the El most certainly benefited the residents of the South End, and the western end of Roxbury along Washington St; but those who would benefit from a separate subway to Nubian today are a completely different group, living in Mattapan, Dorchester, and the other half of Roxbury.

~~~

@Teban54 alluded to this, but I want to share a few maps that have helped me come to realize the degree to which Boston has been and remains racially segregated. I'm not really saying that these maps, or the fact that there is de facto segregation, should push us in one direction or another. But I think it's lurking in the background of this discussion, and worth naming.

From a project at Tufts, we see shifts in neighborhood demographics over time (blue dots indicate White residents, green dots indicate Black residents, and red dots indicate Asian residents):

1700833658395.png


1700833684531.png


We can see in particular that the South End's racial boundaries have softened between 1980 and 2010, probably reflecting ongoing gentrification:
1700834162653.png


1700834206463.png


From Go Boston 2030, we can see that Mass Ave (and to a lesser extent, Tremont St south of Mass Ave) still forms a relatively clear boundary between the largely White and Asian populations to the north and the mostly Black and Hispanic populations to the south:

1700834568727.png


And if we zoom out, we see that most of Boston's Black population (and a large fraction of its Hispanic population) lives in the gulf between the Red and Orange Lines, served only by buses and 45-min freqs on the Fairmount Line:

1700835091029.png


I doubt any of this is revelatory to you, @TheRatmeister -- I just felt these maps are useful context.
 
but those who would benefit from a separate subway to Nubian today are a completely different group, living in Mattapan, Dorchester, and the other half of Roxbury.
Only a quick comment for now, but this gets into the analysis of buses along the Fairmont line. Would a subway to Nubian really benefit these riders more than just improving the service along the Fairmount line to actual rapid transit standards? That would mean improved end-end connections, rather than just one leg of a long bus to subway journey. Although as @Teban54 has said more analysis is needed about who is riding all the way to Nubian/Ruggles and who is getting off on the way. I'll probably end up going over the whole routes of the 15, 23, and 28 to hopefully get some insight for this.
 
Only a quick comment for now, but this gets into the analysis of buses along the Fairmont line. Would a subway to Nubian really benefit these riders more than just improving the service along the Fairmount line to actual rapid transit standards?
Yep, 100% agree, this is the question.
 
From a project at Tufts, we see shifts in neighborhood demographics over time (blue dots indicate White residents, green dots indicate Black residents, and red dots indicate Asian residents):
View attachment 44918
We can see in particular that the South End's racial boundaries have softened between 1980 and 2010, probably reflecting ongoing gentrification:
View attachment 44929
From Go Boston 2030, we can see that Mass Ave (and to a lesser extent, Tremont St south of Mass Ave) still forms a relatively clear boundary between the largely White and Asian populations to the north and the mostly Black and Hispanic populations to the south:
View attachment 44934
And if we zoom out, we see that most of Boston's Black population (and a large fraction of its Hispanic population) lives in the gulf between the Red and Orange Lines, served only by buses and 45-min freqs on the Fairmount Line:
View attachment 44935
I doubt any of this is revelatory to you, @TheRatmeister -- I just felt these maps are useful context.
The 2010 map is extremely out of date. Almost 14 years out of date.

I found a copy of the 2020 map, almost lost it.

1700849436809.png
 
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^ Thanks! I wasn't trying to suggest that the 2010 map was authoritative, mostly I included it because it was the most recent map in the work from which the 1980 map came from.

To my eyes, it looks like the 2020 map suggests that the South End has become more homogenously White than it was in 2010?
 
^ Thanks! I wasn't trying to suggest that the 2010 map was authoritative, mostly I included it because it was the most recent map in the work from which the 1980 map came from.

To my eyes, it looks like the 2020 map suggests that the South End has become more homogenously White than it was in 2010?
That would certainly make sense given the current housing market.
 
^ Thanks! I wasn't trying to suggest that the 2010 map was authoritative, mostly I included it because it was the most recent map in the work from which the 1980 map came from.

To my eyes, it looks like the 2020 map suggests that the South End has become more homogenously White than it was in 2010?

I only came across a copy of the 2020 map on arcgis and I had made a rudimentary account there where it was possible to clone it, so I could change the colors to match the 2010 map.

The original 2020 map uses a different color code set here: -> https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=30d2e10d4d694b3eb4dc4d2e58dbb5a5

And there's a slider here to compare 2010 and 2020 side by side, but toggling 2010/2020 reloads the page so comparing the two is quite difficult: -> https://all-of-us.benschmidt.org/
 
Interesting how the lower income areas - Roxbury, Everett, Chelsea - are the ones without any HRT or LRT lines. I'm not sure if that's because no HRT/LRT lines serving those communities results in a lack of gentrification or, the inverse; no LRT/HRT lines because they are lower income communities and thereby don't have the political clout to get said rapid transit lines.
 
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Interesting how the lower income areas - Roxbury, Everett, Chelsea - are the ones without any HRT or LRT lines. I'm not sure if that's because no HRT/LRT lines serving those communities results in a lack of gentrification or, the reverse; no LRT/HRT lines because they are lower income communities and thereby don't have the political clout to get said rapid transit lines.
Por qué no los dos?
 
Interesting how the lower income areas - Roxbury, Everett, Chelsea - are the ones without any HRT or LRT lines. I'm not sure if that's because no HRT/LRT lines serving those communities results in a lack of gentrification or, the inverse; no LRT/HRT lines because they are lower income communities and thereby don't have the political clout to get said rapid transit lines.
You mean like maybe the White Irish Catholics in Quincy had more political pull than the Hispanic people in Lynn?
 
Interesting how the lower income areas - Roxbury, Everett, Chelsea - are the ones without any HRT or LRT lines. I'm not sure if that's because no HRT/LRT lines serving those communities results in a lack of gentrification or, the inverse; no LRT/HRT lines because they are lower income communities and thereby don't have the political clout to get said rapid transit lines.
Here''s all the abandoned ROWs or ROWs that aren't being used for subway or rapid transit service:
1700854899153.png
 
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You mean like maybe the White Irish Catholics in Quincy had more political pull than the Hispanic people in Lynn?
Exactly, and I should have included Lynn in the list of transit under-served low-income communities: Roxbury, Everett, Chelsea, AND Lynn.
 
Under a Fairmount Line transformation into Rapid Transit service, the central axis of the rail transit desert and transportation poverty would shift from Blue Hill Avenue ,to Warren St., closer to Nubian Sq. further north.

Blue Hill Avenue is halfway between Forest Hills and Ashmont/Fields Corner.

If Talbot Ave., Four Corners, and Uphams Corner get rapid transit service, Warren St. in Roxbury and Nubian Sq., would now be halfway between the Fairmount RT line and Jackson Sq./Ruggles.
 
Alright, so here's stop-by-stop boardings and alightings for Northbound passengers along the entire route of the 15, 23, and 28, the main buses that bring passengers from Dorchester/Mattapan/Roxbury etc into Nubian (And then Ruggles.)
Screenshot 2023-11-24 at 21.02.31.png

To preface: There's something funky going on with the data for the 15 and 13 where ridership at Nubian and Ruggles isn't recorded, but every other stop is? So for those two routes we'll just have to settle for knowing the sum of alightings at those two stations (Within a reasonable margin of error) since (in general) people don't hop on a northbound bus, then stay on that bus until it terminates, then keep riding after it turns south again. I've opted not to include Dudley St @ Harrison Ave as part of Nubian since most of those passengers are likely ending their journey at Nubian, not transferring to another bus. The other methodology piece is that I've determined colored stops within about a half mile (~10 mins) walk from a Fairmount Line station purple since that's a reasonable walkshed. It's not perfect, but I don't really have a better idea. Anyways, here are some conclusions:

  • The 15 in particular serves a lot of passengers heading into Nubian and Ruggles, with more than half coming from the area around Upham's Corner.
  • While still a sizable number, Fairmount Line-Nubian/Ruggles passengers make up a smaller proportion of 23 ridership. This route would likely see the smallest impact from the proposed Urban Ring+Fairmount Line improvements package,
  • The 28, in addition to serving a lot of riders coming from the area around Fairmount Line stations heading to Nubian/Ruggles, also serves a lot of journeys between areas around Fairmount Line stations. Some of these are local trips, but a good chunk could be replaced by enhanced Fairmount Line service.
  • Warren St would remain a large source of riders headed to Nubian to transfer, although with better Fairmount Line service some may choose to travel to Four Corners/Geneva instead, and make a connection there.
So, how does this affect the Washington St LRT? (Assuming Fairmount Line improvements and a "Yellow Line" to Ruggles+Cambridge)
  • The 23 and 28 would continue to funnel riders into Nubian, as well as into Four Corners/Geneva, from Warren St. Of riders transfering at Nubian, some would transfer onto the YL to Longwood/Cambridge, while likely around 2/3 would transfer onto the LRT.
  • The 15 would not funnel nearly as many riders into Nubian, and would mainly serve local trips, as well as being a feeder to Upham's Corner.
  • Ridership along the Washington St LRT would be more than any of the GL branches, and would likely require double Type-10 trains, potentially triples. I couldn't find information about platform length at Boylston/Park St/Gov Center, if someone else know or at least knows if this is possible to fit that would be appreciated. However, I don't think it would be so overwhelming as for an LRT to have no chance. Given the cost of a subway from Nubian-Downtown I don't *think* the benefits over the Washington St surface route would outweigh it, but way, way more information is needed to actually come up with a solid answer here.

So with all that being said, maybe we should spend more time trying to come up with ideas to better serve the Warren St area more directly, that could be hugely worthwhile.
 
You mean like maybe the White Irish Catholics in Quincy had more political pull than the Hispanic people in Lynn?
I wouldn't necessarily say that's the complete picture for Quincy. As you can see in Delvin's map, North Quincy and Wollaston are surrounded by predominantly Asian neighborhoods. While it may be tempting to assume they're "model minority" and better off than the African Americans and Hispanics, from what I know, many of them were working class families who used to be restaurant employees in Chinatown, but moved after the restaurants themselves were "evicted" to Quincy by landlords. I doubt they have nearly as much political influence, although these events may have happened only after the Braintree extension was built.
 
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improving the service along the Fairmount line to actual rapid transit standards
As has been argued about elsewhere, what counts as "rapid transit standards"? For whatever analysis of an improved Fairmont, I think it makes sense to just be pretty clear about what kind of trains you're assuming, passengers per train, headways, hours of operation, whatever.

I say this in part because I've never really been clear how close you could get Fairmont to some "rapid transit standards." The best headways I can remember seeing proposed is 15 minutes, I think. That could be a transformative improvement over what's there now, but that's also not what I would think is meant by "rapid transit." If we just settled on the Red Line running 15 minute headways at rush hour, we would rightly see that as a disaster.
 
Red Line running 15 minute headways... rightly see that as a disaster.
A headway of 10.0 to 15.0 minutes in some senses should still be considered to be "show up according to timetable schedules", and "show and go" being a headway of 9.9 minutes or shorter. Although many transit operations use headways of 15.0 minutes or better as "frequent service". 10 minute, 12 minute, and 15 minute headways are all clockface scheduling (4, 5, 6 vph), and 7 vph being the first divisor where it doesn't divide from 60 min evenly (8 4/7 min).

10 - 15 minutes is still a bit of a long time to wait, especially if a fixed headway mangement operations means that one has missed a connecting bus or train and has to wait 10 - 15 minutes for the next one. A headway management operations using 15 minute headways, means that a single transfer, 2 seat ride, has a 30 minute volatility and range of arrival times at the destination. Also, if there's a dropped trip under a 15 minute headway, that dropped trip results in a half hour, 30 minute wait. Dropped trips under a schedule of 9.9 min or better, means that even with a dropped trip, wait times are 19.8 min or less. 15 min is only the frequent standard as opposed to 10, given that delays of a few min that are common, making 10 min headways hard to keep.
 
As has been argued about elsewhere, what counts as "rapid transit standards"? For whatever analysis of an improved Fairmont, I think it makes sense to just be pretty clear about what kind of trains you're assuming, passengers per train, headways, hours of operation, whatever.

I say this in part because I've never really been clear how close you could get Fairmont to some "rapid transit standards." The best headways I can remember seeing proposed is 15 minutes, I think. That could be a transformative improvement over what's there now, but that's also not what I would think is meant by "rapid transit." If we just settled on the Red Line running 15 minute headways at rush hour, we would rightly see that as a disaster.
I would say ~7 min frequencies. They would be mainline EMUs, but obviously shorter than full electric CR trains. The insides would also be somewhat modified with fewer, if any, longitudinal seating, for example, since most journeys would not be longer than ~15 mins. The main engineering challenges would be:

  1. Adding a couple platforms at South Station exclusively for Fairmount Line use
  2. Electrifying the line
  3. Adding a new maintenance facility and yard. Given that Widett Circle is about to be leveled, I'm not particularly concerned about the logistics here.
  4. Rebuilding Readville Station with two full-high platforms
  5. A track connection to allow for service to continue and terminate at a modified/rebuilt Rte 128/University Park (Optional)
 

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