Offer up your empirical evidence that the number of people boarding Red Line trains at Broadway to go to Park Street, or at Downtown Crossing to go to Porter Square, or at Ashmont to go to South Station, has any bearing on the number of hypothetical people who would get on a Red Line train (but not a Green Line train and not a Commuter Rail train) at South Station to go to North Station.
We don't have those numbers, because that study hasn't been done yet - but shot-in-the-dark guesswork where we try and divine the number of people who would utilize the Link in this fashion but not that fashion based on the total utilization of an entire line or an entire mode of travel makes no sense. That's my point. "The Red Line sees twice as many daily boardings as the entire commuter rail system!" has no bearing on whether or not the Red Line should travel through the Link.
I am not getting into a childish "NO YOU!" shouting match. But you are so damn sure a Greenway trolley is going to kill it...but you won't even conjecture it on Red. Okie-doke.
I know things have not been studied out enough. So all we can do is reason out some hypotheses that can be tested with empirical data. I did that. What the hell is your counter-hypothesis?
A one mile incline at 2% grades puts the Link platforms just about 105 feet underground - are you absolutely certain they need to go that deep? This can work just as well at 90 or 85 feet deep instead, and the extra 750~1000 feet means we can just barely manage to place the portal on the correct side of the Fitchburg Line's split.
Of course, they could elect to keep the mile-long tunnel and reduce the grade instead, but...
Yes. The depth is totally fixed by the depth of the Big Dig slurry walls under 93, the building pilings at the terminals, and the need to keep the 1000 ft. NS Under and SS Under platforms + crossovers off those platforms level. No 10-15 feet leeway; prelim engineering scoping report already covered that. And covered the whole insanity about Central Station being capped at no more than 800 ft. platforms and sitting--platforms and all--on a slight incline.
You'll note that I didn't mention ridership at all in that bullet point. In fact, I cited traffic redistribution and an improvement to overall system efficiency.
This isn't about Link ridership. The untapped ridership potential of the Link is a tremendous bonus, yes, but that's not the only reason to build this thing. In fact, I'd be willing to say that the new ridership wouldn't be enough to justify this project if it was disconnected from the benefits to the system itself.
The ability for us to shuttle southside trains off to BET without using the Grand Junction is a zero-ridership proposition. Realigning Fairmount is a zero-ridership proposition. Grade-separating Readville is a zero-ridership proposition. Hell, shifting most of the commuter rail traffic on the NEC over to the Fairmount Line is probably a short-term ridership losing proposition!
Then what the hell are you arguing? This thing has to return representative investment in the form of revenue. So hypothesize how the ideal traffic distribution maximizes revenue? I hypothesized dual RT as a max ridership/max revenue scenario. So study it out. It's not like they are required to fill all 4 track berths at once. I also hypothesized a Fairmount ROW realignment saving a shitload of money and
adding potential justification for going for it on the Old Colony portal.
You're not presenting a counter-argument. You're blowing your top and shouting. Again.
These are valid concerns that should be looked at in further study - but I don't think that the Link will end up being built in a configuration that prevents push-pull operation through it.
Laws of physics. If the engineering's locked into a specific tunnel footprint and specific grades, you can answer that question based on push-pull loco horsepower and traction. We don't have a final answer, but the final answer will be open/shut. A bleeding-edge
ALP-45DP dual-mode, the only type of "all-terrain" loco on the market, probably ain't gonna cut it because that doesn't have the horsepower of the new diesels the T ordered. Maybe there'll be an answer in the 2020 decade's loco tech, but right now it's dubious any push-pull options other than double-loco Amtraks (justified for variety of reasons on long-distance and high-speed routes. The T isn't going to double-end its trains because the equipment and maintenance drain on a commuter operation will bleed them dry; no commuter rail operation does that. That leaves EMU's, and lines that have end-to-end electrification.
If they ever do the prelim EIS they were supposed to be obligated to, we will get an immediate open/shut answer on what train specs can do it.
The existing numbers are the existing numbers, representing existing commute patterns and existing ridership. They have no bearing on the potential numbers being put up by any part of the Rail Link.
What does have a bearing on the Link's potential numbers are the number of people moving between South and North Station, and how they are arriving at one or the other. These are numbers we don't have, numbers we would need a study to get. And that's a study that I think we need to see.
In fact, since any Link-running branch of the Red Line has no real way to rejoin the existing Red Line, such a branching pattern represents directing a significant percentage of the Red Line away from Cambridge. So, in addition to the numbers on South Station and North Station, I think that we need to see the numbers on Red Line commuters whose ultimate destinations are Kendall Square, Central Square, Harvard Square. See what shifting half of the Red Line's traffic over to the Link would do to those numbers.
You can make educated conjecture off existing numbers. You're saying it's moot. Well, then it's just he-said/she-said and a lot of shouting. So I'll ask again: what's your counter-argument. Root it in something empirical.
Gateway Project.
The current state of Penn Station isn't exactly "surviving" even without the fact that they are legitimately maxed out on capacity and need a second tunnel, though.
The existing Penn tunnels see 24 thru trains an hour. You quoted 3 min. headways. That's 20 per hour. That's less through the Link than 2 tracks through Penn. And it will in no way, shape, or form be 3 min. headways because unlike level Penn the Link's on those steep grades.
What does Gateway have to do with Link throughput? That's enabling 50 trains per hour through NYP. Where in all of New England, much less Boston, are there ever that many trains going at once?
The argument that it MUST be 2 CR tracks and 2 HRT tracks. The insistence that the rapid transit needs can't be met by a branch of the Green Line (and I believe that they can). The insistence that 4 and 0 is an impossibility and shouldn't even be considered.
That's the modal warfare component of this discussion.
I'm more than happy if only 2 tracks get built. I'm confident that it'll quickly become apparent that the other tracks are needed for Commuter Rail.
Regardless, if we really are looking at the minimum build, then a Red Line component isn't even in the discussion yet, which sort of nullifies this entire argument.
Where in the hell did I say MUST. You're the one saying I MUST be saying MUST. Did you notice that I explicitly stated what you just said: they can't build the thing in a monolith anyway. 2 of 4 track berths are 75% likely to be vacant at the start, because a phased build is all they can afford. What's the modal warfare in "TBD". But modal warfare! M'kay.
I would argue, though, that once the tunnel's bored out and a base build is operating that 2 RT tracks on the empty berth is going to start looking a hell of a lot more attractive than 4 RR tracks. Because revenue, supportable headways, and system connectivity are way higher on that mode. That's the math I'm citing with that conjecture. I'll ask again...what's YOUR empirical evidence. This is more shouting.
Cross-platform terminal access, I'll give you, but with the distances involved and the number of stops being made anyway, I think the lights are a non-issue.
Nothing preventing 45 MPH speeds on HRT. Those most definitely do climb 2% grades at every incline. SS, Aquarium, NS underground vs. close to 15 lights and likely a couple more stops at trolley spacing. You realize that's as many lights as the B from Blandford to Washington St.?
I'm not saying it won't be a useful service. But it's not going to move numbers of people akin to the Green branches with those constraints. And you are insisting on a "real transit component", no?
And I'm not entirely sure why you're so dead set on branding this as a "heritage trolley," either. The Greenway corridor needs a real transit component, deserves a real transit component, and can actually get a real transit component without having to be branded as a cheap gimmick whose primary market is stupid tourists, because it won't be.
It's street-running and a corridor that's not going to support 3-car trains with the intersection spacing in some spots. So there...it's immediately more poorly equipped than any other Green branch.
"Stupid tourists" are your words. Is Market St. in San Fran a real transit line? You bet your ass it is. Used to the hilt for general transit, but it hits paydirt on the visitors. The T is not going to institute a street-running line on the Greenway of its own volition. It's not ops-efficient; anything more than looping at GC is going to gum up the works too hard to integrate into the Green Line. There has to be another hook, and a strong advocacy for how it's going to enhance the city. That's where the tourism angle comes in. If City Hall sees it as a linchpin, then it can happen. It's not going to happen if the only pros/cons on the table are that it has to have par capacity with any other light rail branch...in a vacuum.
But it will not be a cure-all like Link HRT or Silver Line Phase III LRT would be at moving people between terminals in large numbers with any sort of efficiency. Too many traffic constraints, not enough capacity. Square your requirement for "real transit component" with the constraints, please, and describe how this is going to work better than the grade-separated alternatives. And don't call this modal warfare...one doesn't preclude the other. Especially if the Greenway trolley's a heritage line, which HELPS build a case for getting it built.
I'm not throwing a tantrum, and I don't think I'm being absolutist either. I'm pointing out that this isn't nearly as straightforward as I'm sure we'd all like it to be, and I'm arguing my opinion - which is that it's far more likely that we'll see a Link with 4 commuter rail tracks, or even only 2 commuter rail tracks, and 0 rapid transit tracks.
I don't think Joe Public, the average commuter, is really going to care whether they're riding a Commuter Rail or a Red Line train from one terminal to the other. And no matter what we do, the Link is going to require an absurd amount of investment. So let's do it right.
Let's see the studies, let's start with the minimum build and provision for expansion later. I don't have a problem with that at all.
I just don't expect that, when all is said and done here, we'll be able to make this work at just two tracks. And I don't expect that a branch of the Red Line is really what's needed to meet the transit needs of this corridor.
But we can always agree to disagree.
...with evidence. I have no qualms with educated guesses. It's the shouting about absolutist personal preferences in a contextual vacuum that is getting really tiresome.