Crime in Boston

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Smuttynose

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Sorry for the downer topic, but something pretty remarkable is happening in Boston this year in that overall crime is down, and murders are running significantly below average, while almost all other major cities are grappling with a surge in homicides and even breaking all-time records.

In Boston, murders at this point in the year are down 24% from last year and 28% from the five-year average. Other major crimes are down as well, some dramatically so, including robberies and burglaries.

Almost 500 people dead: Philadelphia about to set grim record for homicides
www.inquirer.com

Almost 500 people dead: Philadelphia is about to set a grim record for homicides

With nearly six weeks remaining in the year, the number of lives lost will likely far exceed the 500 people who were killed in 1990.
www.inquirer.com www.inquirer.com

DC records 200th homicide, a mark not seen since 2003

Portland surpasses 1987 murder record...
www.wweek.com

Portland Surpasses 1987 Murder Record After Double Homicide in Old Town

www.wweek.com www.wweek.com

Cook County surpasses 1,000 homicides for first time since 1994
chicago.cbslocal.com

Cook County Surpasses 1,000 Homicides For First Time Since 1994

Chicago alone has had 777 homicides so far this year, according to the medical examiner's office.
chicago.cbslocal.com chicago.cbslocal.com

Indianapolis breaks criminal homicide record...
www.indystar.com

After violent weekend, Indianapolis breaks criminal homicide record with 218 deaths

A deadly weekend in which three people were killed and at least five others were shot pushed Indianapolis past its criminal homicide record.
www.indystar.com

Violent year in Providence
www.wpri.com

Providence sees increase in homicides for 3rd straight year

The capital city has seen 19 homicides — the most in more than a decade — and there’s still three months to go.
www.wpri.com www.wpri.com

Hartford on track for deadliest year in decades...
www.courant.com

Woman dies eight days after she was shot in Hartford, police say

A woman who was fighting for her life after being shot last week in Hartford died of her injuries Tuesday, police say.
www.courant.com www.courant.com

RPD: Rochester now at 71 homicides for 2021 — the most in 30 years
spectrumlocalnews.com

RPD: Rochester now at 71 homicides for 2021 — the most in 30 years

The latest victims are a teen and two men in their 20s.
spectrumlocalnews.com spectrumlocalnews.com

Four lives lost: Inside America's Homicide Surge
www.nytimes.com

Four Lives Lost: Inside America’s Homicide Surge

In many cities, towns and rural areas, homicides are up in 2021, even after a sharp rise last year. The reasons are elusive. The impact is immeasurable. Here are four stories from one month that offer a glimpse of the toll.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

In New York, murders are running slightly below last year, but almost all other crimes are up. While compared to most years, murders are historically low, they are up dramatically over 2019.

I was just curious if anyone knows of any other cities that are outliers in terms of the national trends and if you had some theories as to why. Gentrification comes to mind, but many places grappling with violence - DC, Portland, Atlanta - are also rapidly gentrifying.
 
Real estate is so expensive in Boston its pushing a lot of low income people out which generally correlates to increased crime.
 
393b40 said:
Real estate is so expensive in Boston its pushing a lot of low income people out which generally correlates to increased crime.
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It is a plausible explanation. However, Austin has seen a 42% rise in home proces in just one year and a 50% increase in rent. New York and SF too but the trend isnt like Boston. Also rents are flat in Boston YOY, nothing dramatic has changed in the top areas for crime.

I think ONE of many explanations could be because of Mayor Janey. Most of her fanbase comes from the Dorchester and Roxbury neighborhoods where crime is down 30-35% YOY. Perhaps the community is a little more at ease and sees real change down the road?
 
I can't speak to outlying major cities with homicide/crime trends, but I have my educated guesses about why Boston is experiencing diminishing numbers.

When it comes to gentrification, I think that might be part of the conversation... but less so the displacement of long-time residents, and more so the investment of poor urban areas to have more value. I genuinely believe that the pride one feels in their community makes them less inclined to damage it. And to allude to a post I made on the Seaport thread some time ago, I think Boston's built environment is becoming more equitable in more communities. As we improve more areas of the City--more neighborhoods and communities people identify with--we all see and feel those tangible investments that give our places more value, and thus we all feel richer. I think the socioeconomic conditions that cause people to turn to crime--violent crime in some cases--stem from inequities and the feeling of "have-nots" some have.

A lot of policies that Massachusetts implements to provide stability for residents have intended benefits that better people's lives, which in turn reduce their stresses and mean they have more here than they may have in other places. I love that as of a few years ago, Boston has a park within a 10-minute walk of every single home. That kind of equitable access to green space, playgrounds, outdoor exercise equipment, walking/biking trails, gardens, and other park amenities is a very big deal for providing more joy and stability in people's lives. The facts that people are earning more, most (all?) MA residents have health insurance, our gun policies are strictest in the nation, marijuana is legal, and that it's rained an unusually high amount compared to past summers all have probably helped with diminishing crime numbers as well.
 
I've lived in many different parts of the US, and I grew up in Cambridge. So, I've personally seen that greater Boston is way up there in terms of civility and "classiness", for want of a better word. The appreciation of the finer things in life - the arts, architecture, the intellect - are definitely higher in the Boston area than in most major metros of the US. In short, the Boston area is more civilized than most of the US, so that translates into a lower crime rate.
 
I think we run a real risk of it being random or at least factors outside our control, and we shouldn't pat ourselves on the back too hard because who knows how the wheel turns.

That said, I agree that MA has a better welfare state than most of the US and that has real impact on crime. Parks and civility are all well and good, but hunger and homelessness are more important factors.
 
dshoost88 said:
and that it's rained an unusually high amount compared to past summers all have probably helped with diminishing crime numbers as well.
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This is an interesting take that I haven't heard before but find interesting. Is the implication that people were inside more often due to the rain and therefore not committing crime? Or is it that not being in a drought makes people less fretful in an hippyish, "environmental balance" kinda way?
 
Blackbird said:
This is an interesting take that I haven't heard before but find interesting. Is the implication that people were inside more often due to the rain and therefore not committing crime? Or is it that not being in a drought makes people less fretful in an hippyish, "environmental balance" kinda way?
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I don’t know about the causation vs correlation argument, I just remember learning in a sociology class that there is this social phenomenon during inclement weather where certain criminal behaviors decline. Like, if an event happens that removes the opportunity for person-to-person interaction (hurricane, Nor’easter, COVID-19 pandemic), then those incidents of crime among people are far less likely to happen.
 
erom said:
I think we run a real risk of it being random
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I just returned from a DC trip and happened upon the fact that Boston and DC are very similar in their core stats: Both are dense and geographically compact: both roughly 700k in population with Boston at 90 sq miles and DC at 70 sq miles. Both have wealthy white exurbs that are physically close to the more diverse urban cores--unlike say NYC or Philly. And they have very similar key industries: tourism, tech, education, healthcare and all the comparatively interchangeable white collar gigs (finance/law/consulting).

But when you look at crime, Boston averages 50 murder while DC skirts above or below 200 in a given year. This isn't like Baltimore or Detroit where you have divestment and decay. And it isn't just "Boston is full of rich white people." White populations in both cities are around 40% and Boston's % of white residents has declined in tandem with the decline in murders since the 90s. I don't know what it is, but I'm guessing it isn't random luck.
 
Blackbird said:
This is an interesting take that I haven't heard before but find interesting. Is the implication that people were inside more often due to the rain and therefore not committing crime? Or is it that not being in a drought makes people less fretful in an hippyish, "environmental balance" kinda way?
Click to expand...
Ive heard from some pretty smart people that if poor cities just gave everyone an A/C that crime would decrease dramatically. Poor people with no A/C go outside and congregate, which leads to more conflicts and more chances to catch people outside and off guard. Its simple but sometimes things dont need to be complicated. All the rain we had in the summer of 2021 almost certainly lowered crime at least to some degree
 
Suffolk 83 said:
All the rain we had in the summer of 2021 almost certainly lowered crime at least to some degree
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It’s a plausible theory, but it wouldn’t hold up if other comparable cities with increasing crime (e.g., Providence, Rochester, DC, Hartford, Philly, etc.) also had rainy years.

What was the weather like in those cities? Was Boston’s rainfall as much of an outlier vis-a-vis those other cities as its (lack of) crime is?
 
Not to jinx it but with about 15 percent of the year under our belts, this trend has continued into 2022. Boston so far has only two murders. We had eight at the same time last year. To put that into perspective, Hartford with about one sixth of Boston's population has had seven murders already.
 
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