General MBTA Topics (Multi Modal, Budget, MassDOT)

[ritchiew]

This came out last month, but MassInc Policy Center working with TransitMatters came out with this report on Commuter Rail fares.

Their position is the T should implement steep discounts (like, 50%) for off-peak and reverse commutes. Other systems do this around the world, and there is currently massive unused capacity on those MBTA trains. They point to the $10 weekend pass as an example of cheaper fares encouraging a lot more riders outside normal commuting patterns.

Harnessing the Full Potential of Regional Rail with Variable Pricing and Equitable Fare Policies - MassINC

This analysis outlines a practical path to increasing ridership and expanding access on the commuter rail through variable pricing and more equitable fare structures. The report shows how Massachusetts can make measurable progress toward Regional Rail by leveraging existing system capacity to...

massinc.org

 

[Koopzilla24]

This came out last month, but MassInc Policy Center working with TransitMatters came out with this report on Commuter Rail fares.

Their position is the T should implement steep discounts (like, 50%) for off-peak and reverse commutes. Other systems do this around the world, and there is currently massive unused capacity on those MBTA trains. They point to the $10 weekend pass as an example of cheaper fares encouraging a lot more riders outside normal commuting patterns.

Harnessing the Full Potential of Regional Rail with Variable Pricing and Equitable Fare Policies - MassINC

This analysis outlines a practical path to increasing ridership and expanding access on the commuter rail through variable pricing and more equitable fare structures. The report shows how Massachusetts can make measurable progress toward Regional Rail by leveraging existing system capacity to...

massinc.org

A lot of very interesting information from this.

Roughly half of riders (53 percent) responding to surveys between 2015 and 2017 walked or biked to the train. Results from the 2022 to 2024 surveys show this fraction has increased to two-thirds of riders. The walking/biking shares are highest on the Needham line (79 percent) and the Franklin/Foxboro line (71 percent)

Two-thirds of riders now reach Commuter Rail stations by bike or on foot should hopefully lead to some municipalities and the T reevaluating some of their Big Dig mitigation parking lots. In relation to the 71% Franklin Line modeshare, the stations that are prime candidates to have parking reduced and apartment buildings placed on the land are Dedham Corp and Norwood Central. Norwood Central has 624 daily riders for 781 parking spaces, despite the lot never reaching 50% full. Dedham has 437 boardings for 497 spaces, despite only ever reaching 1/3 capacity. Both also set a precedent with their existing apartment complexes near their stations.

The share of riders traveling 5 days per week or more declined by 37 percentage points. There was a significant increase in those traveling 1 to 4 days per week (+15 percentage points), reflecting the shift to hybrid work schedules. But the biggest change was among those using commuter rail three or fewer times per month (+23 percentage points). These passengers now make up more than one-quarter of riders

The significance of this is pretty big. For the Commuter Rail to have recovered nearly to pre-pandemic weekday ridership and exceed weekend ridership with less than 2/3 of the former daily commuters means that there are significantly more unique riders taking the train. Combining that with the large increase in those infrequent riders shows that the train has become a more useful option for a lot of people who just need to make a one-off trip here and there. That's a type of journey that is a car's area of domination.

Not quoting cause it's a large block but the section highlighting the reality of needing to own a car in many suburbs/gateway cities and giving examples of how that plus the commuter rail drives transportation costs to an unaffordable level is very important to understand when considering fare restructuring and income eligibile discounts. It's very clearly the annual car costs that make the train unaffordable, but without good transit in the non-core communities, especially in relation to getting to and from grocery stores, families are forced to own a car to live. Even a Zone 8 monthly fare is under 15% of a minimum wage worker's income, but a low-income family doesn't have great transit connections to food or the train station in say Grafton or Middleboro. Unfortunately, that means adding the T to their car transportation costs makes the transport portion of their income go from 13% to 18% for someone making 300% federal poverty level, making it now unaffordable (research study explains better, more in depth; give it a read). Bringing those fares down despite already being a small percent of income as transport costs on their own is a way to capture some of those car driving trips.

Lots of great data and analysis in there. A 4% cost increase for the T for a 10% daily estimated ridership increase is a pretty good deal.

 

[KCasiglio]

Man on scooter hit by MBTA bus in South Boston - The Boston Globe

The bus was not carrying any passengers, officials said.

www.bostonglobe.com

 

[alewife]

There’s been a 20 mph speed restriction across the Lechmere Viaduct in both directions for a few days now. The regular max speed is 25, so it’s nowhere near as bad as the 10 mph slog that persisted so long after the viaduct reopened with GLX, but hopefully it gets fixed soon.

Unfortunately, the T stopped updating the speed restriction tracker after the Track Improvement Program was finished, but at least on the Green Line they can be tracked by observing the posted signs (speed restrictions have yellow signs instead of white).

 

[themissinglink]

MBTA forecasts warn of big budget deficits in coming years - The Boston Globe

MBTA General Manager Phil Eng, who has been credited for much of the T’s recent transformation, said he remains optimistic.

www.bostonglobe.com

The forecasts, more grim than those made last year because of underwhelming state appropriations, cast a dark fiscal cloud over an agency hoping to sustain its much-touted service improvements in the years to come.
Assuming the T receives the same level of assistance it got from the legislature this past budget cycle, the T expects to find itself in a $560 million budget hole in the 2027 fiscal year (starting July 1), and a $732 million pit the following year (after accounting for cost savings).
The T expects to end the current fiscal year, which wraps up June 30th, with a $239 million deficit. It plans to zero out using money from the agency’s rainy day fund.
The projections are much bleaker than budget estimations drawn up around this time last year. In a presentation last February, the agency said it anticipated a $216 million deficit in fiscal year 2027 and a $390 million deficit in fiscal year 2028 after factoring in anticipated cost savings.
The T traces the disparity to lower-than-expected financial assistance from the state.

 

[as02155]

MBTA forecasts warn of big budget deficits in coming years - The Boston Globe

MBTA General Manager Phil Eng, who has been credited for much of the T’s recent transformation, said he remains optimistic.

www.bostonglobe.com

The truth is that state pols don't want working, fast, and affordable transit. They're happy to have ribbon cuttings and flashy news stories, but, they don't do that. Unless we can get service and operations to be a flashy news story - "new bus line" or something like that. They just can't be arsed.

 

[KCasiglio]

The truth is that state pols don't want working, fast, and affordable transit. They're happy to have ribbon cuttings and flashy news stories, but, they don't do that. Unless we can get service and operations to be a flashy news story - "new bus line" or something like that. They just can't be arsed.

One would think Eng's hypothetical job approval numbers are high and pols would want to learn from that. Alas.

 

[as02155]

One would think Eng's hypothetical job approval numbers are high and pols would want to learn from that. Alas.

No. They want to outsource the problem - as they always have.

Until voters make adequately funding transit a real issue - it'll last like this forever.

 

[alewife]

There’s been a 20 mph speed restriction across the Lechmere Viaduct in both directions for a few days now. The regular max speed is 25, so it’s nowhere near as bad as the 10 mph slog that persisted so long after the viaduct reopened with GLX, but hopefully it gets fixed soon.

Unfortunately, the T stopped updating the speed restriction tracker after the Track Improvement Program was finished, but at least on the Green Line they can be tracked by observing the posted signs (speed restrictions have yellow signs instead of white).

Update: these speed restrictions were removed on Friday!

 

[Dr. Rosen Rosen]

There’s a great model rail exhibit at the Museum of Science.

 

[themissinglink]

MBTA Blue Line weekend service suspension extended to Orient Heights due to upcoming cold weather - The Boston Globe

Train service on the MBTA Blue Line will be suspended between Bowdoin Station and Orient Heights this weekend.

www.bostonglobe.com

MBTA officials said the Blue Line service suspension scheduled for this weekend has been extended to Orient Heights “due to upcoming frigid weather forecasts.”
The initial plan was to suspend train service between Bowdoin Station and the airport, but now it will be extended to include two more stations — Wood Island and Orient Heights — on Jan. 24 and 25, officials said.
“Extending to Orient Heights allows Operations Control Center personnel to better manage switch infrastructure during extremely cold temperatures,” MBTA officials said in a statement.
The suspension of train service will allow the T to perform tunnel inspections on the Blue Line between Bowdoin and Orient Heights, officials said.
With regard to the impending snowstorm expected to hit the region Sunday, the MBTA is not planning any major changes in service.

 

[themissinglink]

The MBTA may receive millions from Congress to help with World Cup operations - The Boston Globe

The World Cup, one of the world's most popular sporting events, is only a few months away.

www.bostonglobe.com

With the World Cup only months away, the MBTA could receive upward of $8 million from Congress to get ready for kickoff.
The House of Representatives last week set aside more than $100 million in its consolidated spending bill to help transit agencies cover “planning, capital, and operating expenses” related to the World Cup. The T, which has been scrambling to prepare itself for the event, has welcomed the cash.
“The success of our World Cup transit efforts rely on securing federal support for operational expenses,” MBTA general manager and interim MassDOT secretary Phillip Eng said in a statement. “Ensuring we have the drivers, staff, and frequency required to move thousands of fans safely per match day is our top priority.”
The bill splits the pot according to the capacity of a host city’s stadium and the number of games set to be played there, leaving the MBTA with around $8.3 million, according to estimates provided by the office of Representative Sharice Davids, a Democrat from Kansas.
[...]
Beacon Hill, meanwhile, has also chipped in money for World Cup preparations. The Legislature in November set up a fund with $10 million to “support transportation, public safety, wayfinding, and similar costs” related to the competition. Any state outlay would have to be privately matched.
State Representative Aaron Michlewitz, the House’s budget chief, told reporters at the time lawmakers are “open to further conversations” about committing more money for the matches.

 

[Longfellow]

We had a really fun show at union square today. The type 8 in the back of the pair was not working and so they uncoupled it live in front of us. The supervisor explained to everyone that the type 8s do not work in the cold. They were trying all sorts of maneuvers to uncouple them and the supervisor was explaining (with a Boston accent) to both operators how to do it at once, it was pretty cool.

 

[themissinglink]

Governor Healey just released a $63 billion budget proposal. Here’s what’s in it. - The Boston Globe

Healey’s spending plan relies on a mix of tax maneuvering, money raised by the state’s surtax on high-earners.

www.bostonglobe.com

Healey is proposing to lean heavily on the state’s so-called millionaires tax to buttress the T’s coffers.
Her plan would funnel $470 million of the surtax revenue next year to support the agency’s own operating budget, plus her administration is proposing to give $645 million more through a separate bill that would spend $1.1 billion in surplus surtax money from last fiscal year.
Together, the $1.1 billion subsidy would help balance the T’s budget next fiscal year and ease the fiscal pain the following fiscal year, too, according to Healey’s budget office.
MBTA officials said this month that barring a rush of new cash, the agency faces a $560 million budget deficit for the fiscal year that begins in July. Healey’s proposed aid would mark the second time in as many years the state offered the T a major infusion of money after plowing more than $500 million of surplus surtax funds into the agency.

 

[KCasiglio]

Governor Healey just released a $63 billion budget proposal. Here’s what’s in it. - The Boston Globe

Healey’s spending plan relies on a mix of tax maneuvering, money raised by the state’s surtax on high-earners.

www.bostonglobe.com

So if I'm reading that right, the governor's proposed budget wouldn't close the budget gap?

 

[themissinglink]

So if I'm reading that right, the governor's proposed budget wouldn't close the budget gap?

Seems like it will close the budget gap in FY2027, but it would only partially fill the gap in FY2028.

 

[bakgwailo]

It seems like it keeps, well, ballooning which isn't great. At some point the Legislature, as we all know, is going to stop bailing out. Is this the sort of thing where it gets better if ridership ever recovers? I feel there isn't that big of a gap vs pre-pandemic that would make up that significant proportion of the budget in any meaningful way. Is the T proactively looking for new revenue streams itself? We just saw how they bailed on the Alewife garage project - why are they just tearing it down and doing a huge mixed use housing development there and land leasing? Same over Forest Hills and any other large station. The T should be able to leverage their real-estate for much needed new revenue sources (without having to sell it off, either).

 

[Stlin]

It seems like it keeps, well, ballooning which isn't great. At some point the Legislature, as we all know, is going to stop bailing out. Is this the sort of thing where it gets better if ridership ever recovers? I feel there isn't that big of a gap vs pre-pandemic that would make up that significant proportion of the budget in any meaningful way. Is the T proactively looking for new revenue streams itself? We just saw how they bailed on the Alewife garage project - why are they just tearing it down and doing a huge mixed use housing development there and land leasing? Same over Forest Hills and any other large station. The T should be able to leverage their real-estate for much needed new revenue sources (without having to sell it off, either).

It ain't cheap to do real estate development, and own source is a tiny piece of the budget pie. It makes up just 83M of a 2.5B budget. Even without land acquisition costs, you'd have to find tens of millions in the T budget to build anything without partnering with outside money - and by doing it in house, I suspect it'd cost tens just to tear it down, let alone build something new at the prevailing wages the T is beholden to.

Honestly, I think I'm going to go back to the fact that fares haven't gone up in 7 years, and I think at this point is now appropriate to revisit the topic now that the T has introduced reduced fare programs and has had enough of a service recovery to float the idea. The T last hiked fares in March 2019 - per the BLS CPI calculator, $2.40 then is worth $3.06 now - to come close to realizing the same "value" of a fare, (notwithstanding all the issues with using CPI, and forgetting for the moment the CR fare component) the T would need to hike fares by 27.5% - in the aggregate, assuming the ridership remains stable in that world its worth probably ~120M/year to the T, enough to basically close the FY27 gap on its own. Better fare enforcement would also tend to help drive that number up.

 

[HenryAlan]

Honestly, I think I'm going to go back to the fact that fares haven't gone up in 7 years

It's also worth considering that the 'T is spending on maintenance again, after years of deferring such costs. There are still active state of good repair efforts just to catch up, but yearly, routine maintenance is now something the MBTA does, which means a much larger expense budget.

 

[SuffolkHeights11]

I find it hard to focus on the MBTA budget when half of the total state budget (31 billion dollars!) is spent annually on health care. A truly staggering sum of money. How much could we improve the MBTA with even 1 extra billion? 2?