General Portland Discussion

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What in the world are we doing… this is “progressive” thinking?! How about the 20 foot wide path next to the rail tracks?! I’m baffled with how backwards this is.
 
That's the "stone dust" jogging trail; the blueprints have a separate 12' asphalt path that's going to go in on the dirt road next to the rails. See the MaineDOT scope of work here:
https://www.maine.gov/dot/sites/maine.gov.dot/files/dot-project-documents/nc018469.00.pdf

OUTLINE OF WORK: The project includes, but is not limited to the following items:
1. Construction of an ADA compliant 12’ wide asphalt multiuse pathway along
approximately 3,400 LF of the Union Branch corridor.
2. Construction of several ADA compliant asphalt and concrete pathways
connecting the Union Branch to Deering Oaks and other adjacent facilities.
3. Repaving/reconstruction of existing parking area(s).
4. Installation of stone dust between the existing rails to create a jogging path.
5. Installation of new shrubs, trees, and other landscape features along the
 
All for more accessible and up to standard paths. Thanks for the info cneal. Just mind boggling they would choose to do this to a rail line with so much room on either side to have the same result!
 
Is this officially rail-banked, or is it flat-out abandoned at this point? (Personally, I'm hoping for Monster Seats at Hadlock, which might be more doable with the new clubhouse where Section 315 was...)
 
NR2Portland said:
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What in the world are we doing… this is “progressive” thinking?! How about the 20 foot wide path next to the rail tracks?! I’m baffled with how backwards this is.
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How about we all commit to doing some research before making accusations...I believe another commenter already set the record straight so I won't elaborate any further. Do better.
 
It's a slow time of year at work, so I've been spending time having hypothetical development conversations with AI Chatbots (my wife certainly isn't interested in having these conversations :ROFLMAO:). Since we're nearing the end of 2025, I asked Gemini to come up with a few different scenarios and hypothesize what the top 20 municipalities in Maine could look like 25 years from now, in 2050.

Here are the four scenarios Gemini modeled (understanding that there are probably hundreds if not thousands of viable scenarios to consider):

Scenario A: The "Pragmatic Sprawl" (The Likely Baseline)​

This is the scenario used for the final population projection below.
  • The Premise: Maine becomes a "Climate Receiver" state (warmer, but not apocalyptic). Remote work settles into a hybrid model, tethering workers to Greater Portland but allowing for longer commutes. NIMBYism in Portland/Falmouth continues to block vertical density, forcing growth outward.
  • The Result: The "Inland Ring" boom. The population center shifts 10–15 miles inland (Gorham, Windham, Sanford) where land is cheap and flood-free. The coast becomes an "exclusive gilded edge" for the wealthy who can self-insure against rising seas. Traffic on Rte 302 and Rte 111 mirrors suburban Boston.

The Alternatives (For Comparison)​

  • Scenario B: The "Gray Drain" (Stagnation). Migration slows, remote work ends, and the "aging out" of Boomers hollows out the workforce. Portland stagnates as a boutique retirement resort. Winner: Brunswick (Retirement Capital).
  • Scenario C: "Silicon Vacationland" (Hyper-Gentrification). High-speed rail connects Boston to Portland (<90 mins). Cumberland County becomes solely for the rich. The working class is pushed to "Super Commuter" zones like Augusta and Waterville.
  • Scenario D: The "Climate Fortress" (Accelerated Warming). Sea-level rise creates a "Great Retreat" from the coast. Property values crash east of I-295. Winner: Sanford (The new "safe" city on high ground).

The Projection: Maine's Top 20 in 2050​

Assuming Scenario A (Pragmatic Sprawl), here is the projected hierarchy of Maine municipalities.

RankMunicipalityEst. 2025Proj. 2050The Primary Driver
1Portland68,50078,000Density: ReCode zoning fills gaps, but geography caps it here.
2Lewiston37,50042,000Affordability: The only urban center with empty housing capacity.
3Scarborough23,50036,000The New Hub: "The Downs" creates a 2nd city center; overtakes Bangor.
4Sanford22,30033,500Sleeping Giant: Unmatched land availability + airport industrial boom.
5Bangor31,50033,000Stagnation: Remains vital, but lacks migration velocity of the South.
6Biddeford22,60031,500Gentrification: Mills fill completely; becomes a true "destination."
7S. Portland26,80029,500Landlocked: Can only grow by bulldozing the Mall. Physically full.
8Windham19,00028,500Zoom Town: Becomes default upper-middle-class remote work suburb.
9Saco21,00027,500Twin City: Drafts off Biddeford/Scarborough; limited by marshland.
10Westbrook20,80027,000Verticality: Rock Row & high-rises create "Portland-lite" density.
11Gorham18,50026,000The Sprawl: Bypass finally opens, turning it into a major hub.
12Auburn24,20025,500Identity Crisis: Struggles to attract the "cool" demo vs. Lewiston.
13Brunswick21,80024,000Stability: Wealthy/Steady. A "prestige" town that resists rapid growth.
14Wells12,50022,000The Rocket: Fastest grower in York Co due to Transit Hub + Flat Land.
15Standish10,50020,500New Entry: The "Next Windham." Rural farmland converts to subdivisions.
16Augusta19,20020,000Gov't Town: Stable, but lacks private sector job engine.
17Waterville16,00018,500Colby Effect: Downtown revitalization stabilizes it; growth is modest.
18Ellsworth8,80016,000Downeast Capital: Explodes as the service hub for Acadia tourism.
19York13,80015,500Price Cap: Becomes too expensive for anyone but millionaires.
20Falmouth12,80014,500NIMBY Wall: Wealthy residents use zoning to block rapid expansion.
 
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Well done Doctor and I agree with most of the Gemini predictions. I do think Portland will crack 80,000 in 25 years and it will be due to the majority of residents eventually agreeing that vertical growth is not as harmful as they once thought. Standish may be a little ambitious when it comes to future population counts and I would cap it around 16,000 due to infrastructure limitations such as roads and being too dependent on wells and septic systems.

Scarborough will be the big winner in the future but will never be more than a shiny "new" bedroom community of Portland with limited character and history with the exception of the marshes. And lastly, I am confident that South Portland will exceed 30,000 due the addition of numerous high density residential projects in the west end of the city which includes the mall and jetport area. Odds are pretty high that I won't be around in 2050 or won't remember anything if I am so I will be safe from being called out for my predictions! :)
 
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Yeah, I'm skeptical of the Wells and Ellsworth predictions, but Wells does have a lot of available land away from the coast. If Sanford does take off, Wells could benefit from it.

Agreed on limits for Standish given the lack of public sewer and water. I think it could crack 16,000, though. Windham and Gorham have both easily cracked 16,000 with limited public sewer and water infrastructure.

I also think Augusta could be sitting on more growth than projected with some of the adaptive reuse and infill projects proposed.
 
I agree with Ellsworth, almost doubling its population would be an impressive feat but with its proximity to Acadia you never know. I can promise everyone that I will not be adding to its census numbers!
 
It would be interesting to see what could happen to Rumford and that general area. If there would be a diaspora from other areas to the foothills.

Gray, West-Falmouth, West-Cumberland would see a boom in development.

Freeport could see more density.

Skowhegan another recipient of those seeking affordability.

Arundel (near Biddeford Highway exit, Market Basket) will likely see expansion.

Sanford/Springvale would sometimes see a boost from summer visitors to Mousam Lake, Square Pond in Acton/Shapleigh. Could see some small boutique development out that way.
 
The trivia threads dominating activity on here for a little while got me thinking - aside from Roux and 89 Elm under construction and Old Port Square being proposed/approved, doesn't it seem like we're in a bit of a lull from a development standpoint? It has been very quiet on a several fronts.
 
45 Union (the tower) is moving along, there was a hearing at yesterday's planning board meeting - I'm assuming on the traffic movement permit? The MSP was approved in December, so I think they're pretty close to being able to apply for a building permit?
 
nomc said:
45 Union (the tower) is moving along, there was a hearing at yesterday's planning board meeting - I'm assuming on the traffic movement permit? The MSP was approved in December, so I think they're pretty close to being able to apply for a building permit?
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Yeah, that's the Old Port Square project I mentioned. Aside from that, seems like things have gotten quiet.
 
Dr. StrangeHat said:
The trivia threads dominating activity on here
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It happens around this time every year due to winter boredom and to your point, limited new development in the area. Things will pick up on these threads if they ever break ground on the Portland Music Hall, Herald Square, Portland Foreside and the Old Port Square tower.
 
I think we'll see action on the music hall first; my feeling is that, with the additional ticket tax in place, the Council will let the moratorium expire and they'll be back before the Planning Board.
 
It's also worth noting that a lot of Portland' development community is "on hold" right now. The City is currently studying the inclusionary zoning policy established by referendum in 2020. It's like the Council will be making a determination on that at some point this spring and larger-scale housing developers are waiting to see if the policy changes.
 
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