Housing a Changing City: Boston 2030

No numbers, but you will need to be a bit patient for GenX to move out of the burbs. By burbs I mean outside of 128. Don't know how millennial/(what's after millennials?) would be able to live there without a car.

Lots of towns outside 128 are building more housing and growing. Billerica, Bedford, and Chelmsford all show growth between the 2010 census and the 2016 5-year ACS estimates.

The notion of GenX people moving out of the burbs is also weird. Ignoring that the youngest members of that generation are still in their 30's and have young kids, even the older ones are expected to age in place, similar to whate the baby boomers are doing today.
 
No numbers, but you will need to be a bit patient for GenX to move out of the burbs. By burbs I mean outside of 128. Don't know how millennial/(what's after millennials?) would be able to live there without a car.

A lot of us Gen-x folks never moved to the burbs, but friends of mine who did aren't all that interested in coming back to the city. They are accustomed to where they are, and see the city as an expensive option. Those of us who have always remained in Boston aren't likely to leave, but either way, I don't see Gen-X doing much to impact urban vs suburban population growth rates any time soon.
 
A lot of us Gen-x folks never moved to the burbs, but friends of mine who did aren't all that interested in coming back to the city. They are accustomed to where they are, and see the city as an expensive option. Those of us who have always remained in Boston aren't likely to leave, but either way, I don't see Gen-X doing much to impact urban vs suburban population growth rates any time soon.

Maybe not this historic urban core, but what about "new urban" developments, and higher density suburban living? I feel like those options might be pretty popular with long-time suburbanites who no longer need 2500+ square feet (in fact, that size might actually be a burden for some), but don't want to move into the city, but would still like some of the convenience of having everything accessible on foot (or very nearby by car)?
 
Maybe not this historic urban core, but what about "new urban" developments, and higher density suburban living? I feel like those options might be pretty popular with long-time suburbanites who no longer need 2500+ square feet (in fact, that size might actually be a burden for some), but don't want to move into the city, but would still like some of the convenience of having everything accessible on foot (or very nearby by car)?

I believe you are describing a "town" and they do seem pretty popular throughout New England.
 
I believe you are describing a "town" and they do seem pretty popular throughout New England.

Nope. Your snark misses.
Maybe it's a description of what a town "should be", but in general, not what they are.
Our small cities don't live up to what Lrfox is describing, so our towns in general don't come close.
 
Here's a nice video on how to maximize housing from an engineering perspective; as in maximizing usable floor area at the lowest cost. Though one of his suggestions is prefab buildings which definitely would not fly here.

There are several recent examples of modular construction for apartments in Boston, like this one in Charlestown.

https://boston.curbed.com/boston-development/2018/5/16/17356806/boston-modular-housing-development

Not sure why you think it won't fly here?
 
There are several recent examples of modular construction for apartments in Boston, like this one in Charlestown.

https://boston.curbed.com/boston-development/2018/5/16/17356806/boston-modular-housing-development

Not sure why you think it won't fly here?

I would guess they are referring to the unions here being against them, like when a prefab was proposed in Westie and that the zoning board nixed it with support from the Carpenter's union.

https://www.universalhub.com/2016/lagrange-street-residents-win-board-rejects-condo

https://www.universalhub.com/2016/lagrange-street-residents-win-board-rejects-condo
 
I would guess they are referring to the unions here being against them, like when a prefab was proposed in Westie and that the zoning board nixed it with support from the Carpenter's union.

https://www.universalhub.com/2016/lagrange-street-residents-win-board-rejects-condo

https://www.universalhub.com/2016/lagrange-street-residents-win-board-rejects-condo

I'm not sure that's exactly what happened there. My recollection from the time was that NIMBYs didn't want higher density structures of any kind at that location. There is at least one modular building in West Roxbury that had no approval issues.

https://www.google.com/maps/@42.286...875&pitch=0&thumbfov=100!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en
 
I'm not sure that's exactly what happened there. My recollection from the time was that NIMBYs didn't want higher density structures of any kind at that location. There is at least one modular building in West Roxbury that had no approval issues.

https://www.google.com/maps/@42.286...875&pitch=0&thumbfov=100!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

I definitely think that is part of it, but, it was shot down by board and had a specific comment from the head of the carpenter's union (who is on the board) about not wanting to take away jobs. As for the building you linked - the owner of Lord's and Lady's next door was the one to build it, and I am fairly certain he has a bit of clout in the neighborhood. I was unaware it was pre-fab, though.
 
I was unaware it was pre-fab, though.
The first floor isn't, but then they brought in sections by truck to stack on top of it. I only know this because I usually pass through there a few times a week, so I saw it going up. Pretty impressive how quickly they were able to build using that technique, and overall, it doesn't look any better/worse than most of the other newish 20-40 unit buildings going up elsewhere in Boston. It definitely could be an element of how we might build quickly. At a guess, though, many of our lots are not shaped quite the right way for pre-fabrication. This location was unique in that it could take a standard footprint and there was plenty of space along side for staging.
 
Here's an article on modular housing in the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/07/business/economy/modular-housing.html

Interesting take on the labor side of things:

Jay Bradshaw, director of organizing for the carpenters’ council representing Factory OS workers, said that would be impractical. Think back to that first station, where four people worked above and below the floor. In Mr. Mazzola’s world, a plumbers’ union would represent the workers installing pipes, while other unions would represent the workers up top.

“It would never work to have upward of 10 or 15 labor organizations at a single employer in a factory setting,” Mr. Bradshaw said.

For Mr. Bradshaw, the real fight isn’t defending job titles but making sure construction workers remain part of a union at all. A short drive from Factory OS, at a carpenters’ training center, the union is developing a program to train housing-factory workers — something that, it hopes, will prepare more people for an industry that it has come to see as inevitable.

“It sure blows the hell out of building in China,” he said.
 
I'm curious if Boston and the surrounding areas end up this path.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVVO8b4vvis


*Definitely we are in an income inequality scenario in Boston.

*I don't think their is much that they can do. Its all supply vs demand.
I believe the renter needs to move out

*I'm telling you the bailouts/QE1,QE2, QE3 and the low interest rates forever to Wall Street has destroyed the local economies and created income inequality across the prominent cities like San Fran, Boston, NYC,

*Interest rates destroyed the fruits of your labor for the regular working class. Only to bailout the bankers.
 
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It's been obvious for some time that Marty was going to smash through 53,000 units @2030 (using 1 Greenway as the opening marker) by as soon as 2024 or 25..... Marty may well, best 69,000 units before the numbers are tallied!!
 
It's also been obvious for some time that the 709,000 population estimate for 2030 was laughably off. We very likely will be near that number in the 2020 census.
 
Even the mayors understand we aren’t building nearly enough. Supply/demand. Works very time.

“As the coalition noted in their October 2 announcement, their 15 cities and towns—which includes Boston, Cambridge, Newton, and Somerville—have added nearly 110,000 residents and 148,000 new jobs since 2010.

Yet, during the same time, the 15 together have permitted only 32,500 new housing units.”
 
They can't even approve or move forward HARBOR GARAGE in the last 10 years now we have housing emergency?
 

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