Idea for fixing the housing shortage

How about a maximum percentage of any given town that can be single family with limits on required acreage, and expand the high-density requirement to every town based on size?

That way if you must build a single family you still can
 
Ma banning single family only zoning statewide would be MASSIVE. I dont see it happening, but wow that would be incredible.
I'm guessing that would drive up the cost of existing single family homes, because of the ultimately reduced supply of such housing.
 
I'm guessing that would drive up the cost of existing single family homes, because of the ultimately reduced supply of such housing.
Not sure your logic works. It does not stop single family home construction -- it just means you can build other formats as well. If the demand is for single family homes, that will still be what is built. But if there is demand for duplexes, triplexes, etc., those get built instead of being blocked.
 
I'm guessing that would drive up the cost of existing single family homes, because of the ultimately reduced supply of such housing.
That's only true if there is significant demand for only detached single family homes. If people are willing to 'compromise' and live in row-houses, duplexes, triple-deckers, etc where every home still has their own front door and, while smaller than some houses out in the burbs, are not particularly small, then you'll see the opposite effect, as a significant number of people who don't really care that much now have more options, leaving the single family homes for those who really really want them.
 
That's only true if there is significant demand for only detached single family homes. If people are willing to 'compromise' and live in row-houses, duplexes, triple-deckers, etc where every home still has their own front door and, while smaller than some houses out in the burbs, are not particularly small, then you'll see the opposite effect, as a significant number of people who don't really care that much now have more options, leaving the single family homes for those who really really want them.
There's a drastic cultural shift needed to get to this point. You're fighting against 80 years of policy and preference pushing people to want to own SFH.

When people talk about housing affordability it's so deeply tied to the price of SFHs. I've said a million times that if we are measuring housing affordability by the price of a SFH we are doomed to fail. There is basically no opportunity for net-new SFH construction inside 495.

Owning your own home is seen as an indicator of economic status. The past few years have shown how much owning and a 30 year fixed-rate mortgages can insulate owners financially. Most people who have owned a condo or townhouse have some kind of horror story and managing them effectively is difficult when owners have a spectrum of different goals. Sound insulation from neighbors is a huge gamble. SFHs tend to appreciate more than condos or townhouses because the land they're build on rises in value and is easily saleable and are a huge driver of wealth for average people.

I don't think any of those things are necessarily good, but it's a very uphill battle to change a culture and system that deeply incentivizes SFH ownership. A huge volume of new construction is needed such that rents and condo prices are so low that people are willing to put up with the downsides because they're so much less expensive than SFH.
 

In an interview with the NYT recently, Rep. Auchincloss proposed turning Ft. Devens and Union Point in "charter cities where we make them walkable and ban cars". He says hundreds of thousands of units at these sites, which seems like hyperbole because it would put Devens (where presumably most of it would be) second only to Boston in New England. Worcester has less than 100k units, for reference. Starts talking about housing around the 11:30 mark
 
If we ever decide to go a grand experiment like this I would be the first person to move in. Doesn’t have to be in western mass, either. I’d live in a Chinese mega city in Everett if the rent was cheap. I’ll eat the bugs. Sign me up.
 
How about a maximum percentage of any given town that can be single family with limits on required acreage, and expand the high-density requirement to every town based on size?

That way if you must build a single family you still can

A lot of it is just terrible minimum lot-size requirements. Take Carlisle - which is located inside the 495 belt and a short distance from Route 3. It has almost universal 2-acre zoning. That’s 87K square-feet. A SFH takes up maybe 2K? Maybe 5K with amenities. That’s a lot of extra space.

Just sensible requirements related to minimum lot size - 15% of your SFH zoning can’t be for larger than a 10K square-foot minimum lot size in places with utilities (water/sewer) and a bit higher in places without would be a good start.
 

Massachusetts’ land-use practices are unique — and not in good ways. They require a two-thirds majority of whatever elected body has the authority to make zoning changes and special-permit approvals. In many towns, zoning is decided by town meetings, which are ill-suited for back-and-forth negotiations about individual proposals. As a result, towns and most cities have come to rely on special permits, which can be approved by an elected board, instead of zoning. The city of Boston, unlike other major US cities, pushes almost every small project through a variance process.

Our interviewees repeatedly raised the need to streamline permitting processes, refocus judicial appeals, and allow towns greater resources for welcoming growth, such as allowing them to charge school impact fees.

There are several ways to speed up and simplify permits. Current law requires a 14-day wait every time a public hearing is paused and reconvened. The Legislature should shorten the wait to 5 days. It should also decrease the threshold for special permit approvals from two-thirds of the body that approves permits to a simple majority. This would deepen former governor Charlie Baker’s Housing Choice reform, which allows the rezoning of land for more housing by simple majority vote. That was essential for towns complying with the MBTA Communities legislation.

Even after a project receives approval through the onerous public process, unhappy neighbors may use lawsuits to delay, disrupt, or threaten builders. This not only clogs up the courts, delaying justice for others, but also forces developers to pass on expected legal costs to buyers or renters. Indeed, one developer told us that he includes potential litigation costs in every financial proposal.

We propose that any litigation be accompanied by an expert opinion alleging a particular harm. If a licensed engineer affirms that a new development is likely to flood your neighbor’s basement, the neighbor can sue. If he merely thinks the neighborhood would be prettier without the development, he can’t. A bill introduced by Representative Brian Murray would focus court cases on real harms and reduce repetitive testimony. The result of such reforms should be quicker decisions, which would in turn reduce the attractiveness of lawsuits as a delaying tactic.

To create a durable fiscal logic for growth, the state should allow local governments to charge formulaic school impact fees as long as the municipality is adding students and new construction is by right — permits that are granted without any discretionary review process. Nothing would change for municipalities that keep the current low-growth, discretionary permitting model. But in those that adopt the new framework, school finances and housing production would be allies instead of enemies.

More potential reforms out of the Pioneer Institute which, opinions on that body aside, would complement much of what was proposed by the state housing commission on Friday, though by themselves feel more like toying at the margins, imo.
 

In an interview with the NYT recently, Rep. Auchincloss proposed turning Ft. Devens and Union Point in "charter cities where we make them walkable and ban cars". He says hundreds of thousands of units at these sites, which seems like hyperbole because it would put Devens (where presumably most of it would be) second only to Boston in New England. Worcester has less than 100k units, for reference. Starts talking about housing around the 11:30 mark
I heard a bit of the interview. He complains that "despite the liberalizing land-use restriction successes we've had at the State House level, we haven't built that much housing, have we?" (At about the 10:30 mark). So I guess we have to look for new solutions?

All of which is absurd. The state has made the tiniest of first steps to liberalize land-use restrictions, and I've never seen anyone seriously argue otherwise. Some of those changes have only been effective for a couple of months, so of course there's no resulting surge in new housing yet. He really just blows past the most important and straightforward changes that could be made, and instead jumps to hopes of new technologies and a new metropolis in the woods. Those are some terrible priorities.
 
Politely have to disagree. Overall I thought the interview was solid and wide-ranging, and I think what Auchincloss is doing is setting the ground work for a post-Obama/Biden movement that hones in on doing big things that get clear, unambiguous results. I agree with you on the technical point that we shouldn't expect to see much new construction based on what's been done so far (let alone the continued resistant from neighboring cities after MBTA Communities) but one of the lessons I took from the last administration is that you will never ever get credit for passing a law if you (a) don't implement it the right way, or (b) even if you think you have, the results aren't stark and visible to the average voter.

All of this is wrapped up in the YIMBY/abundance agenda talk, and so there's probably some political value in saying "we have tried stuff and it has failed, so we should do these things instead, which will get better results." This also feels like a first-draft of a state-wide (national?) platform for a charismatic young non-activist Democrat who has larger ambitions.

To the topic at hand, I still think interest rates will do more in the next 1-3 years than any realistic zoning proposals in the pipeline. Not looking promising with the last few projections, though...
 
I heard a bit of the interview. He complains that "despite the liberalizing land-use restriction successes we've had at the State House level, we haven't built that much housing, have we?" (At about the 10:30 mark). So I guess we have to look for new solutions?

I agree that this specific framing makes no sense. I think what he really means, or at least what a point more worth engaging with would be, is that "despite the amount of political effort we have put into liberalizing land-use restrictions, we haven't built that much housing have we?" - which I think is true. The MBTA communities act has been a top-3 issue in Eastern Massachusetts politics (along with the MBTA itself and migrants) for almost two years. Its implementation has required significant political capital at the state and local level. I don't think it's unreasonable, especially for a politician to look at that and ask "well how can we get the housing built without having this fight." If you calculate that the reforms necessary to combat the crisis, such as those detailed in Friday's Housing Commission report and Pioneer Institute report, are too politically toxic to be successful, then building a whole new city at Devens looks like an end-around to get the units built.

Now, building 220k units at Devens and Union Point is ludicrous. That is just under 3 Providences. It's over 2/3rds of Boston proper. Union Point isn't that big and being on an OC branch line means it's not getting 15 minute headways that would be mandatory to support the level of growth for a long time. Devens doesn't have existing passenger rail and would realistically have to be a re-routing of the Fitchburg line. In fact at that size a Worcester-Devens-Lowell line becomes a likely necessity. That's not even getting into things like water and energy infrastructure or setting up new hospitals and schools for this city when we're struggling to hire for our existing ones. So we're talking some massive infrastructure projects at a time when we have very dubious federal partners.

I'm entirely sympathetic to the argument that the state hasn't been aggressive enough at getting robust development at these sites, and I think it's important to note this is Rep. A talking to a national audience about Democratic party politics, not to the Globe about how to solve MA's housing crisis, but I think the idea is a classic "Why isn't anyone talking about this? Because it's clear after a few minutes of thinking through that it wouldn't work." It would require a level of state capacity we simply don't have, even if it would be more politically palatable to the broad swath of voters who live nowhere near either of those locations.
 
Strong towns had a pretty good podcast today imo:

“In this episode of the Strong Towns Podcast, Chuck explores the flawed nature of North America’s current “housing bargain,” where most neighborhoods are allowed to stay exactly the same as long as some neighborhoods — usually those that are poorer and have less political clout — are forced to radically change. He proposes a new way forward that respects cities as living and evolving systems.”

 
Politely have to disagree. Overall I thought the interview was solid and wide-ranging, and I think what Auchincloss is doing is setting the ground work for a post-Obama/Biden movement that hones in on doing big things that get clear, unambiguous results. I agree with you on the technical point that we shouldn't expect to see much new construction based on what's been done so far (let alone the continued resistant from neighboring cities after MBTA Communities) but one of the lessons I took from the last administration is that you will never ever get credit for passing a law if you (a) don't implement it the right way, or (b) even if you think you have, the results aren't stark and visible to the average voter.
I agree that there is this problem of politicians not getting credit when they actually do something good. That's a complicated issue. But first and foremost, I really expect politicians to do some basic good governance. For the housing crisis, that means zoning reform. There's really no way around that. And it doesn't mean building whole new cities far from transit or job centers. @KCasiglio is right in their analysis, and I think that's just scratching the surface of why this is a terrible policy idea.

If a politician wants to do something with big, clear, unambiguous results, great!, and there's no shortage of good options. Build NSLR, or extend the Blue or Red lines. Build an infill station at South Salem, or any other place cities have already set big-yet-realistic goals for new housing. Replace our crumbling schools with beautiful new ones. Do it fast enough so that the politician who initiated the process can also be at the ribbon cutting. Jeez, get the Allston highway project back on track and free up 40 acres of new development. Some of these are politically complicated. Some really just need money. Any of them a politician could latch onto and demand credit in any subsequent election.

I think what he really means, or at least what a point more worth engaging with would be, is that "despite the amount of political effort we have put into liberalizing land-use restrictions, we haven't built that much housing have we?" - which I think is true. The MBTA communities act has been a top-3 issue in Eastern Massachusetts politics (along with the MBTA itself and migrants) for almost two years. Its implementation has required significant political capital at the state and local level. I don't think it's unreasonable, especially for a politician to look at that and ask "well how can we get the housing built without having this fight." If you calculate that the reforms necessary to combat the crisis, such as those detailed in Friday's Housing Commission report and Pioneer Institute report, are too politically toxic to be successful, then building a whole new city at Devens looks like an end-around to get the units built.
I think you're being a little too generous in your interpretation of what he said. What I hear him saying there is roughly "we successfully liberalized land use restrictions and it didn't work." But I also don't know much about him. I'm sure he's spoken more about this elsewhere and that would clarify his position. Maybe I'm misinterpreting, or he spoke imprecisely.

But even accepting your interpretation, I think he's wrong politically. There is very clearly a growing political movement around zoning reform, both here and nationally. The state's Housing Production Commission just came back with recommendations to eliminate parking mandates and single family zoning(!!). Even suggesting that ten years ago would have been pretty unthinkable. Now those idea are having a moment and seriously part of the conversation. Cambridge has already enacted both of those, and so have cities and a couple of whole states around the country. Some towns around here loosened their zoning laws even more than was required by the MBTA housing law. This is an increasingly organized political movement, and I don't see signs of it slowing down. Putting in the political effort for zoning reform doesn't look like a waste. There's opposition, but it's working. And it's bad for the the representative to say this doesn't work when the political movement is just starting to see some successes. This sounds like him saying "there was pushback, so I quit," while also throwing the movement under the bus.
 
So, a city of that size would warrant at least one new station and possibly several, on both lines( and maybe to Lowell as well) I you suddenly had 100-300k people living there, Worcester service would do well, and Boston ridership would explode. Probably most service would only go to Devens, with hourly west
 
I have to ask why we are considering building out a few thousand to hundred-thousand units in Devens MA when we have 27 gateway cities pretty nicely balanced across the state begging for re-investments, jobs, housing, and connectivity... I'd be jumping up and down if we announced 25K new housing units in Downtown Lowell with Regional Rail Frequency commitments from the state or 50K new in Everett with the state footing the bill for upgrading the SL to GL (as an example). We can enact those "car-banning" and walkable initiatives too. I have to imagine $1M invested in Lowell has a better impact than $1M invested in Devens.

Perhaps the appeal of Devens is its "blank slate," but that can also be a drawback. Most cities evolve over time, shaped by history, culture, and economic forces. This new city will struggle to generate the same sense of place and connectivity, especially if it requires car dependency (to go anywhere outside that's not Devens) from the start.

MA should consider projects on this scale, but there's no reason to start from scratch when we've had cities with 100+ year head starts..
  • Attleboro
  • Barnstable
  • Brockton
  • Chelsea
  • Chicopee
  • Everett
  • Fall River
  • Fitchburg
  • Haverhill
  • Holyoke
  • Lawrence
  • Leominster
  • Lowell
  • Lynn
  • Malden
  • Methuen
  • New Bedford
  • Peabody
  • Pittsfield
  • Quincy
  • Revere
  • Salem
  • Springfield
  • Taunton
  • Westfield
  • Worcester
Even closer, as I pointed out in the Davis Sq thread, there are a tens of thousands of sq ft of surface parking lots that are underutilized next to a transit station there, and likely countless other examples around Boston/Somerville/Cambridge). Utile's map on underutilized lots applicable for mid-rise single-stair development, if legalized, is very intriguing as well. While we certainly won't hit it, 130K potential new units close to rapid transit with single-stair design are illustrated below:

1740603713599.png
 
Nimbys. This problem is the whole reason why cities in texas are continually sprawling out soooooo insanely far away from downtown. Its much easier/cheaper/faster politically to put a bunch of houses in nobodys back yard than in somebodys back yard who can vote and doesnt want it there and unfortunately we have set it up so bob who lives next door gets a veto.
 

Back
Top