Imagine Boston 2030

Re: growth

I seem to remember seeing three estimates: slow, medium, and high growth. I don't remember if the report picks one specifically and uses it in all of its analysis.

I agree that population growth will continue but actually disagree that it will reach the level you're saying. (Not that I couldn't be convinced.)

Not that the growth rates might be similar to yours, but I think the 2016 ACS estimate is wayyy off and that we didn't go from 617,594 to 673,184. I mean, they're the experts, but I just don't get the feeling that 56,000 more people are walking the streets with me or taking the buses (regardless of how crowded they always are). I wonder if we'd be seeing other effects of 56,000 people (versus a more-conservative number, like 25-30,000), like inflation or power outages or anything one could think of. (Certainly, our unemployment rate has gone down.)
 
JohnAKeith said:
Re: growth

I seem to remember seeing three estimates: slow, medium, and high growth. I don't remember if the report picks one specifically and uses it in all of its analysis.

I agree that population growth will continue but actually disagree that it will reach the level you're saying. (Not that I couldn't be convinced.)

Not that the growth rates might be similar to yours, but I think the 2016 ACS estimate is wayyy off and that we didn't go from 617,594 to 673,184. I mean, they're the experts, but I just don't get the feeling that 56,000 more people are walking the streets with me or taking the buses (regardless of how crowded they always are). I wonder if we'd be seeing other effects of 56,000 people (versus a more-conservative number, like 25-30,000), like inflation or power outages or anything one could think of. (Certainly, our unemployment rate has gone down.)
Click to expand...

I do not know if the alternative metrics are available, but remember we have opened up some pretty dramatic new areas of the city with significant development. All the extra people are not necessarily there in the same old neighborhoods -- they are spread out through new neighborhoods as well. This might be why you don't "feel" them around. There are more places for them to be.
 
I looked at the ACS and sure enough the thing that stood out to me was the 25-34 group (ie: "Single with Roommates"). In Boston that group was up 20% from 2010-2015. So they are probably all in Allston and Brighton.

Cambridge was sort of surprising, only up 2% in that same timeframe. Too expensive even with roommates?
 
jklo said:
In Boston that group was up 20% from 2010-2015. So they are probably all in Allston and Brighton.
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Anecdotally speaking, the sardine can-like conditions of the numerous #7 buses each afternoon, chugging from Downtown Crossing down Summer Street's entire length to Castle Island, make an absolute mockery of that assertion. The average age on that bus appears to be about 28 or 29. And. every. single. one. is. packed.
 
Thanks. Looking at it differently, it seems like a logical jump.

It is a matter of which data you track, or pick to draw conclusions.

ACS in one table shows a general progression from the 617,594 in 2010 to 673,141 in 2016, but the other starts lower, at 609,000, and is at 650,000 in 2015, so a jump of 23,000 in one year seemed improbable.

General trends are both the same, though, which is good! (I think.)

2011 & 2015 ACS DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING ESTIMATE (5 YR ESTIMATES)

Screenshot-2017-07-16-at-2.22.38-PM.png


Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016 information; 2016 Population Estimates

Screenshot-2017-07-16-at-2.43.04-PM.png
 
You shoulda posted it here. If you do, I'll post the guy's response to it from the readers' comments.
 
Probably true, but ironically, in this case both the letter-writer, and the responder, posted their comments here before posting to the Globe.
 
Its not illegal to state a way to circumvent a paywall. Unethical but not illegal.
 
JohnAKeith said:
Probably true, but ironically, in this case both the letter-writer, and the responder, posted their comments here before posting to the Globe.
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Lol, yeah, well aware of that :)

TallIsGood said:
Its not illegal to state a way to circumvent a paywall. Unethical but not illegal.
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I didn't say it was, I just think its bad form, the same with pasting entire articles to the forum (and there are much easier ways to do it that proxies).
 
Very good point about pop growth. Specifically, housing stock growth targets are probably too low if population growth keeps outperforming expectations (or if _implied_ population growth from demand for housing remains high).
 
Still need to build a friggin 30 park place in the city to make up for the MAJOR gap in history our skyline has. New York is just adding to their stock like its nothing and we couldnt even get 1 at the time they were being built....and we still cant get one now. What the hell, not even a proposal.... We did get Liberty Mutual which is an incredible building, but why now cant we get something to add to the downtown skyline. We can, but will we? Im not saying we need a 900 footer like 30 park place but like a 500 footer downtown wouldnt kill anyone would it? Maybe even a spire too to add to the nonstop flat top boxes we have, theres plenty of art deco spires to choose from and they all look great.... something to think about.


2016_08_26+30+Park+Place+01.jpg
 
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