navigator4
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Now that Hainan flights from China are cancelled, will they leave Logan permanently?
Cape Air’s proposal for Boston-New York seaplane service is finally cleared for takeoff. The Boston Planning & Development Agency board on Thursday amended its licensing agreement with Boston Waterboat Marina to allow for docking of seaplanes at the marina’s Long Wharf location for a one-year trial period. The amendment comes with several conditions: Cape Air would be limited to four daily flights, for example, and would not be able to dock overnight at Long Wharf or to refuel there. Planes would also need to yield to ferry traffic
Now that Hainan flights from China are cancelled, will they leave Logan permanently?
We'll see what happens with the routes (and who serves them), but the Chinese government is taking over the HNA group and will likely sell off airline assets to China Eastern and China Southern. I imagine that one or both of the PVG and PEK routes will be served by a Chinese carrier, but who and when are the questions. If it actually is the end of Hainan, it's a shame. I've enjoyed flying them more than any other Mainland Chinese carrier I've flown.
Id like to see Air China in on PEK, China Southern on CAN and China Eastern on PVG.
I’m not sure there’s going to be any eagerness to take on most of the routes Hainan will no longer be operating never mind a new route like Guangzhou. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Beijing return in relatively short order but I wouldn’t count on Shanghai.
There definitely is demand, I just think a better equiped airline could handle CAN PEK PVG better than Hainan. Almost like how VS was meh with man
Any numbers to back that up?
Airliners.net you can retrieve all that information, their numbers run via OAG. Or you can use the DOT T-100 data. I can give you statistics on current routes and 2017/2018 loads, but the 2019 ones are not fully matriculated yet.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1p_PuNk0i4yqsZNsfYCIYGibqjKZTjLHB/view Here is 2017-2018 data, you can play around with it. Pretty neat data here. If I find more cool and sizable data I will post it here as well.
So that seems to back up my assertion that Shanghai is a relatively weak performer with sub-75% loads on fewer than three roundtrips per week. I also can't imagine that Guangzhou is a larger market than Shanghai and at least Hainan had the 787-8 whereas China Southern and China Eastern’s smallest route-capable plane is the 787-9 with 60+ more seats.
CAN is a short hop from HKG.I think it would perform stronger on AC or China Eastern. Especially if there was a *A appearance to China. PEK Daily, PVG 4x a week, CAN 3x a week seasonally would work great. It could happen, there is (according to OAG) about 110 daily passengers between BOS - CAN. CAN is also a huge biotech hub. You would be filling the J seats tremendously
So that seems to back up my assertion that Shanghai is a relatively weak performer with sub-75% loads on fewer than three roundtrips per week. I also can't imagine that Guangzhou is a larger market than Shanghai and at least Hainan had the 787-8 whereas China Southern and China Eastern’s smallest route-capable plane is the 787-9 with 60+ more seats.
I think the problem is the airline more than the markets. The fact that BOS-NRT/HKG/ICN are all successful routes speaks to strong Boston-Asia demand, much of which is driven by China. But if I'm a loyalty flyer trying to get the Chengdu, for example, will I pick Hainan or an alliance carrier? Even if my final destination is PEK or PVG, it would be hard to turn down a convenient one-stop option (of which there are many) on an alliance carrier. Not to mention Hainan offered next to no connections in PVG.
Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern would all be smart to launch PEK, PVG, and CAN, respectively, once coronavirus blows over and these routes are available again. The O&D market is there, and they would also be able to capitalize on connections and loyalty flyers in a way that Hainan never could.
So that seems to back up my assertion that Shanghai is a relatively weak performer with sub-75% loads on fewer than three roundtrips per week. I also can't imagine that Guangzhou is a larger market than Shanghai and at least Hainan had the 787-8 whereas China Southern and China Eastern’s smallest route-capable plane is the 787-9 with 60+ more seats.
I think the problem is the airline more than the markets. The fact that BOS-NRT/HKG/ICN are all successful routes speaks to strong Boston-Asia demand, much of which is driven by China. But if I'm a loyalty flyer trying to get the Chengdu, for example, will I pick Hainan or an alliance carrier? Even if my final destination is PEK or PVG, it would be hard to turn down a convenient one-stop option (of which there are many) on an alliance carrier. Not to mention Hainan offered next to no connections in PVG.
Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern would all be smart to launch PEK, PVG, and CAN, respectively, once coronavirus blows over and these routes are available again. The O&D market is there, and they would also be able to capitalize on connections and loyalty flyers in a way that Hainan never could.
Exactly ^ Hainan had a weak alliance and connection options. Honestly, 71-75% on PVG/PEK with Hainan, with virtually no connections or mutualistic partnerships is pretty solid.