Massachusetts 2026 Gubernatorial Race

www.bostonglobe.com

Can a Baker Republican still win? Three writers on the Mass. governor’s race. - The Boston Globe

Mike Kennealy is a favorite of the moderate Baker camp, but he faces two stiff challenges.
www.bostonglobe.com www.bostonglobe.com

Well received point that if the GOP candidate wants to tap suburban pushback against the MTBA communities act (I think a dubious strategy in general, but let's put that aside), this is the last guy they would want to run. Is the GOP really going to run on "more towns should embrace it like Lexington has" though? I agree with that sentiment, but I don't think a GOP primary voting population does.
 
www.bostonglobe.com

At Globe tech summit, Healey criticizes Trump on LA protests, says she’s open to evaluating millionaire’s tax - The Boston Globe

Governor Maura Healey criticized President Trump's economic policies and response to immigration protests in Los Angeles at the Globe's Tech Innovation Summit.
www.bostonglobe.com www.bostonglobe.com
At one point, Healey indicated she could be open to undoing the so-called millionaire’s tax, which placed an additional tax on earnings over $1 million after Massachusetts residents approved a constitutional amendment to do so two years ago. That change has since generated billions of dollars for education and transportation-related initiatives Healey said she supports, such as making community college tuition-free for Massachusetts residents.
That tax has also drawn backlash, however, from some in the business community who lament the tax has driven wealthy residents from Massachusetts. While there is currently not a concerted effort to undo that tax, Healey said Massachusetts should re-examine “what we need to do within our existing tax regime” to attract people to the state.
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KCasiglio said:
Who is asking for this? It was bad enough she sandbagged the funding task force, the millionaire's tax is the only reason the MBTA isn't facing collapse.
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People are leaving over this. It will have long term adverse impacts.
 
KCasiglio said:
Who is asking for this? It was bad enough she sandbagged the funding task force, the millionaire's tax is the only reason the MBTA isn't facing collapse.
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She's worried about a serious challenger appearing in 2026 so she's moving back towards the center.
 
TallIsGood said:
People are leaving over this. It will have long term adverse impacts.
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But they aren't:

The verdict: The new report found the number of ultra-wealthy residents in Massachusetts — those with at least $50 million or more — has actually grown since 2022, from 1,954 to 2,642 in 2024.
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www.wbur.org

Not fleeing: New report shows more wealthy residents in Mass., 2 years into 'millionaire's tax'

Despite previous concerns, Massachusetts' "millionaire's tax" hasn't seemed to deter high-earners from continuing to live here, according to a new study from the Institute for Policy Studies.
www.wbur.org www.wbur.org

The Institute for Policy Studies, which is based in D.C., released a report Monday that the number of millionaires by net worth increased by 38.6 percent from 2022 to 2024, from around 440,000 people in Massachusetts to more than 612,000. Their collective wealth also grew significantly, from $1.6 trillion to $2.2 trillion, or 37.7 percent.
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www.boston.com

Report: Number of millionaires in Mass. has actually gone up since new tax took effect

Since the Fair Share Amendment, or the so-called “millionaires tax,” passed in 2022, Massachusetts has seen an increase in high earners.
www.boston.com

etc.
 
393b40 said:
She's worried about a serious challenger appearing in 2026 so she's moving back towards the center.
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Is she? If so, why? She's certainly not going to get attacked from the right in a D primary. The state GOP hasn't shown any indication of getting its shit together, and even if it did she's still going to have the tailwinds of a favorable national climate. To lose reelection would make even Martha Coakley blush
 
HenryAlan said:
But they aren't:


www.wbur.org

Not fleeing: New report shows more wealthy residents in Mass., 2 years into 'millionaire's tax'

Despite previous concerns, Massachusetts' "millionaire's tax" hasn't seemed to deter high-earners from continuing to live here, according to a new study from the Institute for Policy Studies.
www.wbur.org www.wbur.org


www.boston.com

Report: Number of millionaires in Mass. has actually gone up since new tax took effect

Since the Fair Share Amendment, or the so-called “millionaires tax,” passed in 2022, Massachusetts has seen an increase in high earners.
www.boston.com

etc.
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I think in order to determine the true impact, an analysis would have to be made of how well Massachusetts is retaining high net worth individuals relative to lower tax states. The raw numbers have to be taken into context of the fact that net worth has increased fairly dramatically over the past few years due to rising home values and stocks etc. For example, I've seen IRS data regarding migration of high income earners, defined as those earning over 200k, and Mass has fared very poorly, ranking nearly at the bottom of the 50 states with relatively high migration out of the state.
 
HenryAlan said:
But they aren't:


www.wbur.org

Not fleeing: New report shows more wealthy residents in Mass., 2 years into 'millionaire's tax'

Despite previous concerns, Massachusetts' "millionaire's tax" hasn't seemed to deter high-earners from continuing to live here, according to a new study from the Institute for Policy Studies.
www.wbur.org www.wbur.org


www.boston.com

Report: Number of millionaires in Mass. has actually gone up since new tax took effect

Since the Fair Share Amendment, or the so-called “millionaires tax,” passed in 2022, Massachusetts has seen an increase in high earners.
www.boston.com

etc.
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“study from the Institute for Policy Studies, a progressive research group”

Nothing like a study to support their own opinions.
 
TallIsGood said:
“study from the Institute for Policy Studies, a progressive research group”

Nothing like a study to support their own opinions.
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That's why I linked to two articles. And the google link will bring you to many others from sources you might find more objective, such as Forbes. If you aren't willing to dig in to it a bit, instead dismissing the messenger, then maybe you aren't the best person to talk about finding data to support a pre-determined result.
 
HenryAlan said:
But they aren't:


www.wbur.org

Not fleeing: New report shows more wealthy residents in Mass., 2 years into 'millionaire's tax'

Despite previous concerns, Massachusetts' "millionaire's tax" hasn't seemed to deter high-earners from continuing to live here, according to a new study from the Institute for Policy Studies.
www.wbur.org www.wbur.org


www.boston.com

Report: Number of millionaires in Mass. has actually gone up since new tax took effect

Since the Fair Share Amendment, or the so-called “millionaires tax,” passed in 2022, Massachusetts has seen an increase in high earners.
www.boston.com

etc.
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I think this is probably the best study looking at whether rich people move to avoid taxes.


Stanford researchers worked with the US Treasury department to track everyone who filed federal taxes with more than $1M, checked migration patterns for a decade, and compared them to a giant sample of non-millionaires. They looked across all 50 states plus DC.

Do millionaires move to low tax states? "We find that millionaire tax flight is occurring, but only at the margins of statistical and socioeconomic significance." So Yes-ish... no, not really. They slice the data a few ways, but it looks like a state could raise the marginal tax rate 10% and expect to lose 0.8% of their millionaire population. Rich people overwhelmingly stay in the environments that made them rich.

MA's 4% millionaires tax is much smaller than that, even. I wouldn't doubt some people left the state because of it, but in numbers too tiny to ever measure or really care about. It is insane for Healey to be courting that constituency, especially when those billions of dollars in tax revenue now seem to be load bearing for basic infrastructure. If anything, we could be raising that rate without fear of losing people.
 
But what about the people who really want to make over ~$1.1M per year but never will and hate the idea that somehow they're still losing something because someone might get a free bus pass and that's a sign of weakness and therefore they might leave the state (but really housing is just too expensive and so South Carolina and Florida are calling). Have we calculated the impact on these people?
 
ritchiew said:
I think this is probably the best study looking at whether rich people move to avoid taxes.


Stanford researchers worked with the US Treasury department to track everyone who filed federal taxes with more than $1M, checked migration patterns for a decade, and compared them to a giant sample of non-millionaires. They looked across all 50 states plus DC.

Do millionaires move to low tax states? "We find that millionaire tax flight is occurring, but only at the margins of statistical and socioeconomic significance." So Yes-ish... no, not really. They slice the data a few ways, but it looks like a state could raise the marginal tax rate 10% and expect to lose 0.8% of their millionaire population. Rich people overwhelmingly stay in the environments that made them rich.

MA's 4% millionaires tax is much smaller than that, even. I wouldn't doubt some people left the state because of it, but in numbers too tiny to ever measure or really care about. It is insane for Healey to be courting that constituency, especially when those billions of dollars in tax revenue now seem to be load bearing for basic infrastructure. If anything, we could be raising that rate without fear of losing people.
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Moving to NH or FL, which I assume are the 2 most popular destinations for millionaires, would be a 9% decrease.
 
22marc said:
Moving to NH or FL, which I assume are the 2 most popular destinations for millionaires, would be a 9% decrease.
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Your right, mass state income tax is 9% for these high income taxpayers, FL and NH are zero, also capital gains are not taxed in those states. State estate taxes are another issue often considered by the wealthy and Mass is among the most aggressive in the country in that regard. If a very wealthy household with $10,000,000 tax return moves out of Mass the state loses approx 1,000,000 a year in income taxes each year going forward, not including property, sales, estate taxes etc. If 100 very wealthy households with that type of income move out Mass that is a loss of tax revenue of $100,000,000 per year; Now back to specific stats, apparently there are 27,000 taxpayers with annual incomes over $1,000,000 per year in Mass as per IRS data. It's within the realm of possibility that if even if just a fraction of these 27,000 taxpayers leave Mass (especially at retirement when no longer tethered by a job and are perhaps more sensitive to state tax impacts), the out migration could lower or eliminate any revenue bump from the millionaires tax. I don't pretend to know the current economic impact trade offs, the millionaires tax is currently generating a lot of money. However, my hunch is that over a longer period of time, relatively high state taxes will result in small and steady incremental out migration of high income/ high net worth taxpayers that will eventually outweigh the additional tax revenue generated from the higher tax rates.
 
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