MBTA Commuter Rail (Operations, Keolis, & Short Term)

Also, when the Red Line Extension to Arlington was in its planning phase, there was an idea that the freight service would continue at-grade across Mass Ave while Red Line trains would tunnel under it.
 
Java King said:
I hope you are correct, and I love your optimism! I just feel the Transmit Matters report on the Framingham/Worcester line is so far down the list of important transit needs within the Boston area that it borders on fantasy. Extension of the Orange Line to West Roxbury, conversion of the Needham line to a Green Line extension, Red/Blue Connector, extension of the Blue Line to Lynn, and a host of other projects seem like a higher priority and greater use of limited funding.
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Worcester Line improvements also facilitate "CompassRail" development. Worcester is the fastest growing city in the NE and better transit is needed to continue. The Worcester Line is the 2nd most used line
 
Tallguy said:
Worcester is the fastest growing city in the NE and better transit is needed to continue.
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So much so that they killed off H2H due to lack of demand.

I think the only county in MA that has increased pop growth is Barnstable. Although I think the declines in Middlesex and Suffolk aren't much.
 
The EGE said:
One super-express a day, not timed for typical commute hours, being turned into a regular zone express is not exactly powerful evidence for a lack of demand.
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Before they removed it, the last sorta H2H arrived at SS at 7:35. Which is quite good. The 2019 one arrived at 9:06 which is too late but I think it was still fairly popular.
 
jklo said:
So much so that they killed off H2H due to lack of demand.

I think the only county in MA that has increased pop growth is Barnstable. Although I think the declines in Middlesex and Suffolk aren't much.
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Worcester County grew by about 8 % between 2000 and 2020
 
Of course this story, with its various bizarre/surreal/farcical contours, is catnip for a scandal sheet like the Herald. Nevertheless, I'll point out that the raggedy tabloid has performed a vital public service here in pointing out the apparent astonishing lethality of the commuter rail, in terms of how many people were fatally struck by it over a five-year span (2017-2022): on average, 1.4 fatalities per month.

(apparent, because, naturally, the Herald being the Herald, the stat is presented completely in a vacuum: on a per-mile-covered basis, is that high for an American commuter rail system? Low? Average? for all we know, the MBTA causes remarkably few monthly fatalities on the tracks, compared to peer commuter rail systems...)

https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/0...estrian-crossings-has-february-court-hearing/
 
DBM said:
Of course this story, with its various bizarre/surreal/farcical contours, is catnip for a scandal sheet like the Herald. Nevertheless, I'll point out that the raggedy tabloid has performed a vital public service here in pointing out the apparent astonishing lethality of the commuter rail, in terms of how many people were fatally struck by it over a five-year span (2017-2022): on average, 1.4 fatalities per month.
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That sounds like a lot. I was kind of under the impression that it's mainly Suicide By Train so I'm not sure the whistle would help much.
 
DBM said:
Of course this story, with its various bizarre/surreal/farcical contours, is catnip for a scandal sheet like the Herald. Nevertheless, I'll point out that the raggedy tabloid has performed a vital public service here in pointing out the apparent astonishing lethality of the commuter rail, in terms of how many people were fatally struck by it over a five-year span (2017-2022): on average, 1.4 fatalities per month.

(apparent, because, naturally, the Herald being the Herald, the stat is presented completely in a vacuum: on a per-mile-covered basis, is that high for an American commuter rail system? Low? Average? for all we know, the MBTA causes remarkably few monthly fatalities on the tracks, compared to peer commuter rail systems...)

https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/0...estrian-crossings-has-february-court-hearing/
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You can dig into the numbers in the FRA website.

Quick look seems to indicate that the Philly area has about twice the death rate per year as metro Boston. (Virtually all trespassers in ROW.) I am not sure what the passenger mile or train mile comparison is like.
 
jklo said:
I think the only county in MA that has increased pop growth is Barnstable. Although I think the declines in Middlesex and Suffolk aren't much.
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This statement isn't true regardless of whether you're talking about Covid short-term or, say, 2000-2021 long-term:
1706466507597.png

(I did not check any other counties.)

For 2000-2021, Barnstable actually saw the slowest growth of the six listed, and was declining for the most part before Covid. And while its Covid growth (2019-2021) is the fastest of the six, all other counties here except Suffolk saw a small population increase, too. (For Norfolk, Essex, Worcester and Barnstable, there's a notable bend upwards from 2020 to 2021 as compared to earlier years.)

The 2022 census data is available, I just didn't use it.
 
jklo said:
Well, why do you think they dumped H2H then? It was fairly popular in 2019 and it had a decent time slot unlike back in 2019.
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Don't change the subject. I asked for some evidence for this debunked claim. . .
jklo said:
Pop is likely at best stagnant now. And the CR ridership issue you'd have to think is more WFH than anything else.
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One H2H time slot does not equal a microcosm of whatever systemic issue your 'vibes' claim is ruling across the board. Substantiate it with something.


You are doing this evasive act a lot on the board this week.
 
F-Line to Dudley said:
One H2H time slot does not equal a microcosm of whatever systemic issue your 'vibes' claim is ruling across the board. Substantiate it with something.
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They haven't brought back 2019 service levels on the WL as a whole either. And WFH is why.
 
Teban54 said:
The 2022 census data is available, I just didn't use it.
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That's what I was referring to when I looked at it. And yes Barnstable was in decline before the pandemic. One possible explanation is that enough people on the Cape didn't commit to living there full time until some time in 22 but had been there largely since the beginning of the Pandemic.

It should be pretty logical.... people going in 5 days a week versus, what, 1? 2 maybe?
 
jklo said:
Well, why do you think they dumped H2H then? It was fairly popular in 2019 and it had a decent time slot unlike back in 2019.
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So I guess all the new buildings being built in downtown Wormtown are all being built by delusional people. I'm going to guess that, baring data from you, the funders dumping a billion or more into Worcester may have data that refutes your feelings.
 
jklo said:
That's what I was referring to when I looked at it. And yes Barnstable was in decline before the pandemic. One possible explanation is that enough people on the Cape didn't commit to living there full time until some time in 22 but had been there largely since the beginning of the Pandemic.

It should be pretty logical.... people going in 5 days a week versus, what, 1? 2 maybe?
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(Source, using 2010 instead of 2000 for convenience)
County2010Apr 2020Apr 2022% 10-22% 20-22
Suffolk722,023797,936766,381+6.1%-4.0%
Essex743,159809,829806,765+8.6%-0.4%
Middlesex1,503,0851,632,0021,617,105+7.6%-0.9%
Norfolk670,850725,981725,531+8.2%-0.1%
Worcester798,552862,111862,927+8.1%+0.1%
Barnstable215,888228,996232,457+7.7%+1.5%

Worcester County still grew compared to 2020 (even if tiny), and its population change remains above other counties closer to metro Boston. Whether another tourism-centric county is growing faster shouldn't have any bearing on Worcester's commuter rail service, and you can't say for sure that Covid's effects will be permanent either.

jklo said:
They haven't brought back 2019 service levels on the WL as a whole either. And WFH is why.
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Commuter rail ridership has reached 90%+ of pre-Covid levels late last year, well above the MBTA average. Using your logic of people going to work "one, two, maybe" times per week, the ridership recovery ratio should have been 0-40%.

The commuter rail system as a whole shifted to a "regional rail-like" network with more even headways post-Covid. Peak hour frequencies were reduced, but off-peak frequencies improved. The Worcester H2H train (again, a single trip) was part of the rush-hour trips, so it's clearly not specific to this line.
 
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Can’t find where I saw this but I’m pretty sure the MBTA commuter rail is experiencing the best ridership recovery of any commuter rail system in North America except for a couple single line quasi intercity railways like the NM RailRunner.

It’s well documented that weekend ridership is regularly exceeding pre-pandemic with regular, albeit low-headway, weekend service and the discounted pass. This now extending to holidays could mean additional gains in this year.

With the shift towards more WFH people are making different kinds of trips than the traditional 9-5 commute and the CR has done the most to adapt to that so far out of the MBTA transit modes. I think the short term transition away from H2H reflects that as riders are likely more concerned with finding the trip time that suits their needs rather than working around the one that’s fastest. Also, as Worcester continues to grow and bring work back to its downtown, more demand to go into Worcester will arise. As someone who regularly returns from Worcester on the last train of the night there’s always people returning to Boston, Framingham, and towns in between after enjoying some of the life Worcester has to offer. Basically H2H ignores that Worcester is also a destination for the towns in between and treats it as just a distant suburb and workforce generator for Boston.
 
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