Multi-Family Zoning Requirements for MBTA Communities

Dunno about refugees per se... but may as well be.

Again... building apartments in Holden isn't going to make your Davis Square rent any cheaper. Seriously. This bill flies in the face of where the demand is for MUDs, let alone the logistics of car free living. College Grads are extremely important to Boston's future, but they are not living in Holden, sorry.

Oh wild I had no idea that college grads weren't going to move to a municipality that has a share of adults with a degree 13.4 percentage points higher than the state as a whole. Oversimplifying how the market works isn't proving your point, it's putting your own ignorance on display. Sure, very few if any are directly deciding between Holden and Davis Sq. But some are deciding between Holden and Worcester. Others are deciding between Worcester and Framingham, and those people now have less competition for Worcester because some of that demand has been shifted to Holden. Now there's less competition for Framingham for those people deciding between Framingham or Newton. So on and so forth. This is also EXACTLY why the issue cannot be left to individual municipalities, because no one municipality can put a dent in regional level demand on its own.

I don't know what you're implying with the "may as well be refugees" bit. It seems we're dealing with Schrödinger's renter. Simultaneously a displacing college grad living in a luxury condo and a section 8 family with 8 special needs kids about to enroll in the school district.
 
The rate of population increase could be gradual or it could be rapid. Just like the percentage of population increase may be low or it may extremely high. For towns and cities that embrace the spirit of the mandate, it will most likely be the latter in both cases. As I've already pointed out, municipalities are forbidden from limiting the number of occupants or bedrooms in these as of right units within these new districts. Even if you add 20% more net units to the municipality, the actual number of additional residents may be far higher.

It is extremely unlikely that new property taxes will be able to offset a substantial increase in costs for expanded municipal services and other expenditures. An addition double-digit percentage of additional students into a school system can cripple a town's treasury all by itself. Cities and towns generally don't make out like bandits with population increases, especially if that increase is sudden, and especially if a high percentage of that increase is young families, which this law claims to encourage.

A large increase in population will have a substantial impact on traffic to most of these municipalities. Supporters of this law just seems to get all hand wavy and dismissive whenever this is brought up, as if no one will have to rely on a car anymore because they can just base their existence on the commuter rail station a mile down the road. This is just absurd, of course. There will be an enormous influx of cars onto the local roads in these towns, many of which are already choking in traffic.

There is an elephant in the room here, and that is that this law is premised on a paradigm that has become obviously anachronistic. The model that has hundreds of thousands of people all pouring into Boston from the suburbs in the morning and all pouring out of Boston back into the suburbs in the evening. People don't have to do this anymore, nor do they want to. Just as people don't need to pile into the city to fill all those shoe factories, auto plants and shipyards anymore, they don't need to fill those gargantuan corporate office towers anymore. The work-from-home revolution has happened, and COVID was its proof of concept. Businesses realized that they didn't have to spend millions of dollars on office space and workers got back the enormous chunk of the lives that was being wasted getting to and from their cubicles everyday. We're not going back. Those empty office buildings downtown are going to stay that way. Subsequently, the MBTA, who's ridership numbers have absolutely plummeted since COVID, isn't going to get those riders back either.

We in Massachusetts probably should be looking at a more distributed, nodal model of self-sustaining communities for the future rather than this plainly outmoded, gigantic, centralized model revolving around the Shawmut Peninsula.
Will do my best to correspond paragraph by paragraph here:

The evidence thus far does not bear this out. Nor is your point about number of bedrooms/occupants very convincing. Developers are going to build what the market will bear. Anything bigger than 4 bedrooms is already a rarity. Almost exclusively studio-2 bed apartments are what has been getting built and given the significantly lower rates of children per family I want to see some hard evidence that that's suddenly going to change, especially outside of the inner core.

I agree! Cities and towns have certainly not made out like bandits with population increases. In fact, they could certainly do for some dense, mixed use development to prop up over half a century of only adding population via sprawl that requires such heavy subsidy. Let's talk about schools, for example. Aside from the fact that declining enrollment in k-12 districts is its own crisis across the region, from Cape Cod to the inner ring suburbs to Boston itself and an influx of young families would do these districts a lot of good, sprawl has been devastating for school district funding. We guarantee to every family that no matter how in the middle of nowhere you live we'll send a bus to come pick up your kid. You don't have to be one of ArchBoston's wonkiest transit nerds to understand how expensive that is, and how the idea of running that type of service outside of the school system would be laughed out of the room. We gave up on neighborhood schools because in the short term it was cheaper to build a centralized educational campus in the middle of nowhere. But these campuses require so much more in long term maintenance and transportation costs that it outweighs yesterday's cheap land acquisition.

So the municipal finances, much like the impact on traffic, will be primarily the result of the individual town plans. Here there have been and I'm sure there will continue to be plenty of room for critique. I'm on record in this very thread (or maybe it's the Milton specific thread?) criticizing the Milton plan for focusing on East Milton instead of the high speed line before even the representative town meeting initially approved it. These plans CAN absolutely make traffic worse, and this is where towns should be working the MBTA/RTAs to say "we'll bring you X amount more demand here but we need you to give us better frequencies" etc. I absolutely support introducing more carrots and it was a lot easier for state legislatures to do this because it didn't require them to commit money. But the towns aren't powerless here either, as your next paragraph so perfectly articulates! Your point about traffic would probably be a fait acompli in a 2019 commute dynamic, but that's not how things are anymore. This law is perfectly condusive to building that multi-nodal system you envision. We should be developing our town and village centers, and encouraging the return of local retail, dining, etc. A nice healthy infusion of density and allowing the market to do its thing will do more for that than any government program. Towns can mandate auto-oriented density and get the worst of both worlds they seem to be afraid of...or they can...not do that. The law leaves it up to them.
 
Yes, it is a stretch, in no small part because what possible carrots could be offered to combat miscegenation laws?

Also, we need to acknowledge one of the key reason to use the stick over the carrot is because the two sides are wildly far apart. Another is that the side being stick-ed doesn’t have much of a way to retaliate.
But on the other hand, what possible carrots could be offered to people who willingly choose raw sewage flooding their properties over modest increases in housing density?

I could be wrong here (and I very much am not trying to paint a picture of you specifically), but I can't shake this image of a family of four living in a Kingston McMansion subdivision built in the early 2000s/pre-Lehman boom deciding that now Kingston is getting too crowded. It all feels "I got mine in time to prevent you from getting yours." One of the few spots where limousine liberals and Free Stater libertarians seems to find common cause.

Insert Milton or wherever else, doesn't have to be Kingston.
 
No, I'm saying that the character of individual towns has changed over the past couple decades and continues to do so because of the status quo of zoning. Though I agree with and appreciate your observation that this is a region-wide phenomena.

No, you are viewing it solely through a regional lens, and dismissing more local concerns because you aren’t willing to view it through a more local lens.

The tea analogy would be more appropriate if it were Great Britain trying to force Boston to open up their markets to free trade, not the other way around. Let's not lose sight of what "big government" is trying to impose here is liberalization of private property rights. I would love to see the founders' reaction to government dictating floor-area-ratios, setback requirements, and how high your hedges can be (3 feet in the front, 6 on the sides in rear here in Quincy). Their fear of reactionary mob rule certainly seems to have aged well on this issue.

You mean those same founders that passed a state-wide mandatory church attendance law? Yeah, I don’t seem them being shocked by individual municipalities controlling local building rules.

But on the other hand, what possible carrots could be offered to people who willingly choose raw sewage flooding their properties over modest increases in housing density?

I could be wrong here (and I very much am not trying to paint a picture of you specifically), but I can't shake this image of a family of four living in a Kingston McMansion subdivision built in the early 2000s/pre-Lehman boom deciding that now Kingston is getting too crowded. It all feels "I got mine in time to prevent you from getting yours." One of the few spots where limousine liberals and Free Stater libertarians seems to find common cause.

Insert Milton or wherever else, doesn't have to be Kingston.

Lets assume that is the nature of the person opposing this mandate. So what?

By mandating the change instead of incentivizing it, now they can cast themselves as the aggrieved party.
 
By mandating the change instead of incentivizing it, now they can cast themselves as the aggrieved party.
Nobody is mandating that any particular household must redevelop their McMansion subdivision into a 5 over 1. The new law simply leaves these decision for individual property owners, who are the authority most concerned with local issues, to make according to own needs and desires.
 
No, you are viewing it solely through a regional lens, and dismissing more local concerns because you aren’t willing to view it through a more local lens.
Ok, but...I'm not. Do I need to go through town by town and explain it in 173 different ways? Something only becomes a regional issue because it is impacting a significant number of localities. That doesn't suddenly mean it's no longer happening at the local level, in fact just the opposite, it's happening at the local level in a great number of localities.

I'll give one demonstrative example; Sudbury.

Sudbury was a rural farming community up until the post-war suburbanization boom when, "town character" be damned, the middle class was going to get their single family sprawl. Sudbury's population almost tripled between 1950-1960 and then nearly doubled again between 1960-1980. Sudbury, like the region, had its "character" massively changed during this time period from a farming community to a middle class commuter community. Then it stopped. Which is probably a good thing, because the 1950s-1980s style of development was environmentally and financially unsustainable.

Between 1980-today, the character has again undergone a massive change. It's no longer a middle class commuter community, it's an upper class older community grappling with the demographic crisis of plummeting school enrollment (when I last worked for Sudbury, in 2021, they were projecting a 25% decline in enrollment by 2025) because people who grew up in Sudbury could no longer afford to live there into adulthood. Just because a similar story is playing out in municipalities across the region does not mean it's not a local issue.

While I haven't done polling, I'd also be pretty confident the majority of Sudbury residents would also oppose building significant new apartments. Sudbury's experience with MFH is Avalon, one of the worst developers I've ever encountered, the kings of auto-oriented density.

The area between Avalon and Raymond Rd is only about 0.75 square miles. It holds MFH, multiple grocery stores, some surprisingly good restaurants (highly recommend Farmer's Daughter), a variety of retail options, day care, entertainment and cultural amenities, and a long stalled rail trail that will get built eventually. Yet the idea of living even car-lite in the multi-family housing is silly, because walking to any of that sucks. So we dump yet more cars onto Rt. 20.

Screenshot 2024-05-06 085317.png


But that was not inevitable, and that's not the fault of the density, that's the fault of the way in which this area, which as the crow flies is a perfectly walkable distance, was developed. If this were developed more in keeping with the traditional town character of Sudbury, as a village center, it would not only be a much more pleasant area, it would probably make sense to have an MWRTA bus running between it and the Framingham train station. But Sudbury decided that town character doesn't apply to Rt. 20 development. So they get this. I would agree with them that more of this is hardly desirable. But the form it takes is up to them, they don't have to choose more of this.

So then, if the technical form the MFH takes is not in conflict with Sudbury's character, at least certainly not to the degree the modern character is at conflict with the 1950-1980 character or the pre-ww2 character, what is the opposition about?

I think it's time we talk about the real elephant in the room here, that most of the critics of the law have a vested financial interest in the crisis. Bringing the state's median home price back to the 1980 level ($193,565 in 2024 dollars) would be an unprecedented financial disaster for hundreds of thousands if not millions of families. That's not acknowledged enough by any side in the debate, because it makes the homeowners sound self interested and it makes the state sound heartless. This is the gordian knot at the heart of the issue and everything else we're arguing about is window dressing.

In 1980, 20.2% of the state's residents made enough money to buy a home in Belmont. 15.3% made enough to buy a home in Wellesley. By 1990 that was already down to 3.2% and 1.9%, respectively. (source - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1995). That is changing the character of a community. This is a very small, inadequate step towards course correction. It has to be that way because the state (and federal government) has no idea how to solve the real gordian knot, untying the need for perpetually rising housing costs as a basis for middle class retirement and maintaining housing affordability for access to the middle class in the first place. This dynamic plays out locally with its own unique quirks in every town and city. Those quirks don't make this not a regional issue, and it being a regional issue does not make it any less local and personal.
 
Sudbury was a rural farming community up until the post-war suburbanization boom when, "town character" be damned, the middle class was going to get their single family sprawl.

Lets look at this from a different point of view:

Hypothetically, its the 1950s. Sudbury farmers are opposed to the development of their town into a middle-class suburb and the way it will change their town.

What is your opinion of their opposition?
 
Lets look at this from a different point of view:

Hypothetically, its the 1950s. Sudbury farmers are opposed to the development of their town into a middle-class suburb and the way it will change their town.

What is your opinion of their opposition?
If we want to contain urban sprawl, perhaps this area should be turned into a green belt. If that is not a significant regional policy, it should be up to the farmers who own the land. If they want to sell to developers who want to build new homes I don't see why government has any business intervening.
 
If they want to sell to developers who want to build new homes I don't see why government has any business intervening.

+1. Get rid of local zoning!

It was a mistake for the state to leave the specifics of enforcing this law up to the individual towns. Sudbury in 2024 was never going to agree to building more houses for the undesirables to start moving in that could also cause the value of their rotting colonials to decrease. If Beacon Hill really wants change, it will need to be more heavy-handed.

Edit: If you can’t tell, I’m pretty bitter about the moving goalposts regarding home ownership when you compare my generation to my parents’ and grandparents’. KCasiglio’s post above is much more neutral and nuanced. But at the heart of it, I really don’t see a way for things to change given the status quo.
 
It was a mistake for the state to leave the specifics of enforcing this law up to the individual towns.
Are you suggesting that the state should impose zoning plans on the towns? Because I will disagree with you there, I don't think that brings any significant benefit outside of maybe simplifying a couple court cases while serving to antagonize both people and local governments.
 
Sudbury residents formed an organization to oppose the construction of a new power line along the ROW of the former B&M Central Mass branch. Power lines don't drive cars nor do they send their children to school. Clearly, there is more at play here than simply concerns about funding infrastructure for a growing population. Heck, this power line is being built at Eversource's expense and is vital infrastructure to support growth in electricity demand across the region and property owners are still upset.

Protect Sudbury was unable to stop the construction of the 115 kV power line, but they did force the line underground, inflating the costs of the project. I am going to assume that reduced dividends to Eversource's shareholders are not going to fund the project, but rather it will be funded with increases in electricity bills throughout Greater Boston.

Another example of the extent to which Sudbury is willing to go to keep "undesirables" away from the town is the decade+ controversy over an attempt to build affordable housing on land owned by the Bartlett Family, who have operated in Sudbury for over a century. The local government forced the property owner to relocate the development to an alternative site much further away from the historic town center, which has potential to become much more walkable, to an alternative location along the border with Concord. The result is more cars piling onto MA-117, but I guess it's a half victory for preserving "community character" because Sudburians won't have to gaze at recipients of housing assistance nearly as much.
 
Lets assume that is the nature of the person opposing this mandate. So what?

By mandating the change instead of incentivizing it, now they can cast themselves as the aggrieved party.
WarpedReality's and KCasiglio's posts about Sudbury illustrate why I frankly am unconcerned whether or not this type of I've-Got-Mine feels aggrieved. That type of hypocrisy deserves a call-out. And I mean, who isn't casting themselves as an aggrieved party these days? They can add themselves to the back of the line.
 
Are you suggesting that the state should impose zoning plans on the towns? Because I will disagree with you there, I don't think that brings any significant benefit outside of maybe simplifying a couple court cases while serving to antagonize both people and local governments.

I was moreso envisioning “the following zoning laws are illegal within x miles of a train station” rather than “here is the zoning you will use”.
 
I was moreso envisioning “the following zoning laws are illegal within x miles of a train station” rather than “here is the zoning you will use”.
I would consider this way too vague/broad to be broadly applicable, this is really something that needs to be handled case-by-case by people familiar with the area they're zoning. There are places like Dedham Corporate center, where a quarter mile radius would require the rezoning of areas on the other side of 128, which makes no sense because the station is essentially inaccessible from there, or cases like Littleton/495 where a radius would rezone maybe a couple dozen single-family homes and not much else. This less malleable approach ends up promoting many half-assed and unequal implementations rather than firmly encouraging towns to develop new land use and transport strategies that actually fit the local needs.

I'd again say that it also doesn't really benefit the state. The main issue with the current law is that a few towns are just refusing to implement it, which would still be the case with a more blanket approach. It might mildly simplify a few court cases, I guess, but that's hardly worth the drawbacks.
 
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Fun fact: there is only one set of zoning laws in Japan, applied equally from Shinjuku to the sparsely-populated nether regions off the Sea of Japan. Distribution varies from municipality to municipality, but the all zone types and regulations per zone type are nationally standardized. Instead of isolating functions the Japanese system slowly extends what is possible until (almost) anything is allowed. A commercial district doesn't prohibit housing, it just allows for higher-density commercial usage. Effectively, every zone is mixed-use: even the strictest residential definition allows for all kinds of commercial use as long as the building scale matches the residential. There are 12 zone definitions, and only Zone 12 (Exclusively Industrial, designated for heavy/highly-polluting industry) doesn't allow for housing or commercial. Even Zones 10 and 11 (Quasi-Industrial and Industrial) allow for residential and commercial; you just can't build schools, hospitals, or hotels in Zone 11.

Rail is expressly allowed in all zone types.
 
Between 1980-today, the character has again undergone a massive change. It's no longer a middle class commuter community, it's an upper class older community grappling with the demographic crisis of plummeting school enrollment (when I last worked for Sudbury, in 2021, they were projecting a 25% decline in enrollment by 2025) because people who grew up in Sudbury could no longer afford to live there into adulthood. Just because a similar story is playing out in municipalities across the region does not mean it's not a local issue.

That's because middle class and up don't have kids anymore. The kids have been replaced by dogs. Adult population is probably stable or even growing in the town.
 
Lets look at this from a different point of view:

Hypothetically, its the 1950s. Sudbury farmers are opposed to the development of their town into a middle-class suburb and the way it will change their town.

What is your opinion of their opposition?

I suppose you're looking to say that me believing sprawl is worth fighting makes me hypocritical here? Let's look at Sudbury at the time:

Sudbury1943USGSx2400.jpg


and compare that to the Sudbury of today

Capture.JPG


If the farms want to sell to developers to build homes, making that illegal would seem to conflict with a "quintessential of American political ethos" of the sacredness of private property rights. That being said, what the town did not have to do is actively aid and subsidize it on top of how much the state and federal government were subsidizing it in ways they should not have. Sudbury did not have to willingly take on infrastructure liabilities (see: roads) that the property tax revenue of the development would not support. The state mandates K-6 students be provided transportation to schools, but towns to do not have to guarantee transportation for older kids. It could have not made illegal developing its village centers, where the pre-1950 development was quite visibly concentrated. It's unfortunate that these hypothetical farmers would be fighting the tide of federal housing and transportation policy that social engineered the auto-commuter suburbs into existence, but there is plenty that could have been done to help the town grow more organically by just...not actively promoting and helping the development.

That's because middle class and up don't have kids anymore. The kids have been replaced by dogs. Adult population is probably stable or even growing in the town.
Why isn't the middle class having kids anymore? This isn't a rhetorical question, it's been studied to death. The answer is money. My wife and I would love to have more kids. We'd also like the eventually, maybe, one day, own a condo or something. That seems mutually exclusive. One kid is already a massive financial strain when saving up for a house that costs over 3x what it was when our parents were buying. If this were 1980 we'd be in the income bracket that could afford to buy in Belmont. But as you note, the character of these towns has been made so thoroughly unrecognizable by exclusionary zoning practices that people that already have kids can't move to those types of places anymore. The middle class households with kids have been replaced by upper class and childless.
 
I would consider this way too broad to be broadly applicable, this is really something that needs to be handled case-by-case by people familiar with the area they're zoning. There are places like Dedham Corporate center, where a quarter mile radius would require the rezoning of areas on the other side of 128, which makes no sense because the station is essentially inaccessible from there, or cases like Littleton/495 where a radius would rezone maybe a couple dozen single-family homes and not much else.

I appreciate the sentiment, but I still disagree. Trying to tackle a complex problem with a complex solution just causes compounding complexity. Maybe accessibility to the 128 station should be improved. Maybe SFH isn’t the best use of land near that Littleton stop.

Shawn gave a great example of how standardized zoning can be applied.
 
The main reason to oppose housing is that more houses == more kids == more school expenses. This year - overrides are failing in a lot of towns, and there is talk about firing teachers, and reducing expenses.
I was brought up in a third world country but in a kind of progressive state. Public education is considered sacrosant - I dont know why these discussions even have to happen in the most educated state in the richest country.
If the state were to fund schools adequately in exchange for taking charge of zoning, maybe that would work?
 
a massive financial strain when saving up for a house that costs over 3x what it was when our parents were buying. If this were 1980 we'd be in the income bracket that could afford to buy in Belmont. But as you note, the character of these towns has been made so thoroughly unrecognizable by exclusionary zoning practices that people that already have kids can't move to those types of places anymore. The middle class households with kids have been replaced by upper class and childless.

But you're talking about SFH. This thread is about MUDs. People don't typically cross shop SFH and MUDs. And as we're seeing, there is a segment of people leaving MA because they can't afford SFH. Building MUDs isn't going to get them to stay.
 

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