New England Electrical Grid

[Arlington]

When a clean half of the power goes out in your house, it means that one (but not both) of the two "hot" wires coming into your house are out.

The lines are "split phase" such that +120V on one and +120V on the other can be combined into 240V for ovens, dryers, central air, and car-charging (technically they are 180deg out of phase, or you can think of it as +120v and -120V have a total difference of 240V). Anyhow, turn off your 240V stuff in such cases.

It happened to us today in this heat.
The tipoff:
1) Half of stuff goes out; others stay fully on (some of the "out" things can flicker)
2) No breakers on your panel are tripped
3) Your neighbors have the identical problem (proving it isn't your residence's service lines)

Dangerous tipoff:
4) Turning on things like your oven allows current to flow backwards from one side to the other, but since you're powering the whole block, you get a dangerous "in between" level of voltage (LEDs flicker, incandescents may or may not light). You can burn out 240V things if you try to run them on only 120V.

It happened to the whole block, so I knew that meant trouble on the transformer where, sure enough, you could see the one line had zapped off:

The lines worker (whom I was pleased to offer ice water and my restroom to) blamed it on cheap crimp connectors that have been the choice in new installations for the last 10 years, rather than copper. I didn't fully understand (like, are there "tin" crimp connectors and copper ones? I'd understand that the white metal melted easier than the copper)

Anyway, you could see the ragged end of the service line dangling after its connector melted (above)
Nice thing about National Grid: good outage reporting, good outage status, and once the lines worker was on scene everyone got a text (if they'd reported it via phone) saying "your power will be back on by an estimated 7:30pm. Actual time of restoration: 7:15pm

 

[stefal]

How much more cold do you think our grid can handle before these become a potential reality? Luckily, we're getting a break tomorrow and Wednesday, but I'm sure these past few days have been taxing, and bills might reflect that...

Rolling blackouts possible this winter, regional grid warns

https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/12/11/rolling-blackouts-possible-this-winter-regional-grid-warns

Rolling blackouts may hit New England if there's an extended cold snap this winter, as the regional power grid operator warns of a “precarious” situation due to snags in the natural gas supply.

"Although it’s not uncommon for ISO-NE to suggest there may be a need to reduce consumption during peak periods, market conditions this year have perhaps contributed to a heightened concern," said Susan Faloon, spokesperson for the Maine PUC.

 

[millerm277]

How much more cold do you think our grid can handle before these become a potential reality? Luckily, we're getting a break tomorrow and Wednesday, but I'm sure these past few days have been taxing, and bills might reflect that...

Well, the answer looks to be....burning a lot of oil. ISO-NE tracker was up to >3GW of oil-fired generation running yesterday and it's generally been running at high levels throughout last few days (today's been over 1.5GW all day, 2.7GW peak). The one coal plant left in NH looks to be operating, as well.

I've also seen it reported that there's a couple LNG cargoes waiting offshore to sell when it's most profitable.

Not exactly sure energy policies/politics around natural gas pipelines are having their desired effects. The short-term results certainly look pretty ugly.

 

[Arlington]

I thought all LNG was being diverted to Europe so that a Russian cutoff of gas wouldn't shut down Germany. Maybe that is the same as "waiting offshore for higher prices"

 

[millerm277]

I thought all LNG was being diverted to Europe so that a Russian cutoff of gas wouldn't shut down Germany. Maybe that is the same as "waiting offshore for higher prices"

This was reported yesterday: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2292484-us-northeast-gateway-lng-terminal-resumes-operations

 

[stefal]

How much more cold do you think our grid can handle before these become a potential reality? Luckily, we're getting a break tomorrow and Wednesday, but I'm sure these past few days have been taxing, and bills might reflect that...

Rolling blackouts possible this winter, regional grid warns

https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/12/11/rolling-blackouts-possible-this-winter-regional-grid-warns

Turns out, we were really close:

Close calls as region’s power grid walks a tightrope

On January 11, according to the slide deck, the forecasted high temperature was 12 degrees in Boston and 11 degrees in Hartford. At 11 a.m., the New York power grid operator informed New England that it will not be able to provide as much power during peak demand periods “due to constraints on their system.” At 12:28 p.m., problems surface with a transmission line bringing electricity into New England from Quebec. At the same time, a number of generating plants go down, taking 1,100 megawatts offline. According to the slide deck, the unexpected loss of power was dealt with by bringing dormant plants online, which takes considerable time in some cases.


On January 12 at 2:45 p.m., the operator of the power grid in New Brunswick notified ISO-New England that the electric feed to the Canaport liquefied natural gas facility had shut down unexpectedly. Canaport takes imported liquefied natural gas and converts it for use on a pipeline feeding New England; the loss of power at the facility jeopardized delivery of natural gas to the region. Fortunately, power was restored at the facility by 4:24 p.m. and natural gas deliveries to New England resumed.

As far as realistic solutions in the semi-near-term:

He said the most realistic options are importing more hydroelectricity from Quebec, procuring more imports of liquefied natural gas, and incentivizing power generators to build more generating plants capable of shifting back and forth between natural gas and oil. He said the use of No. 2 oil should be prioritized.


None of these supply options would be easy. Importing more hydro-electricity from Quebec would require the construction of a new transmission line. Importing more liquefied natural gas, van Welie wrote, would probably require beefing up existing gas tanker terminals or developing the capacity to liquefy natural gas here in the region.

 

[bakgwailo]

So, I think that is kind of interesting. Mass Save just did a pretty big full revamp of its program and is really pushing heat pumps and full electric:

The plan offers many other incentives for electric home heating and water heating equipment, central air conditioning, insulation, and efficient appliances. The new plan sets aside hundreds of millions of dollars for electric heat pumps, which, for the first time, will be available to gas customers looking for a cleaner alternative.

....

Residents who agree to weatherize their homes before installing heat pumps will also soon qualify for additional savings, because doing so can boost efficiency by preventing hot air from leaking out of a home. DPU has not yet hammered out the specifics of this incentive plan, but they’ve committed to do so by May.

What the new Mass Save rewrite means for you

Which I think is probably great - heat pumps have come a long way, but, given the strain on the grid already would we be prepared for it? Or is the hope that people switching from NG to electric heat pumps would offset on NG supply for electrical generation? I'd imagine this will be most popular with oil customers who never had access to NG in the first place, though. It is on my list to get them out to see if I can convert my units with old steam systems, but, it would be really shitty if there was a rolling blackout in the winter and then total heat loss.

also: if you haven't hit up mass save, totally do so - especially landlords as they basically cover insulation/air sealing of units fully (if in Boston, the city also has a program to pick up the rest). Total win-win.

 

[Roxxma]

So, I think that is kind of interesting. Mass Save just did a pretty big full revamp of its program and is really pushing heat pumps and full electric:



What the new Mass Save rewrite means for you

Which I think is probably great - heat pumps have come a long way, but, given the strain on the grid already would we be prepared for it? Or is the hope that people switching from NG to electric heat pumps would offset on NG supply for electrical generation? I'd imagine this will be most popular with oil customers who never had access to NG in the first place, though. It is on my list to get them out to see if I can convert my units with old steam systems, but, it would be really shitty if there was a rolling blackout in the winter and then total heat loss.

also: if you haven't hit up mass save, totally do so - especially landlords as they basically cover insulation/air sealing of units fully (if in Boston, the city also has a program to pick up the rest). Total win-win.

Agreed. If you don't know how ingenious heat pumps are, this video explains it (actually, if you want to know ingenious pretty much any mundane everyday thing is, you should check out the rest of his videos).

 

[ceo]

You're going to lose heat during a blackout anyway. I'm contemplating adding solar and converting to full electric, but one of my biggest hesitations is no longer having a functioning stove and water heater during outages. We almost never lose power, however.

 

[Arlington]

My power loss without heat loss strategy:
1) Gas-fired fireplace or insert (no electric control)
2) Conventional gas powered hot water tank (no electric breather)
3) Using a computer UPS to power my boiler (which needs only a very small amount of current for its control/safety systems, since it is single-pipe steam and has no circulating fan or pump)

For (3) I cut a plug and socket connector into the supply line for the boiler on the breaker-side of the emergency cutoff switch (so that making the power uninterruptable still allows the emergency off switch to cut power (which is still a thing on gas boilers even though it is oil burners that are the real "worth cutting off" appliance))

 

[Arlington]

Having watched the Woburn-to-Mystic transmission line being dug for several years, using a PLASMA ARC (to vaporize dirt and shatter rock) looks like a great alternative:

A new plasma robot can dig tunnels 100 times faster and 98% cheaper

Earthgrid plans to re-wire grids across the U.S. at record speed at 0.62 miles per day with a spallation boring robot with several plasma torches mounted on large discs

interestingengineering.com

 

[ceo]

I don't get how this can be so much cheaper. You still have to get rid of the spoil and install lining.

 

[dhawkins]

Eversource is planning routing thru Cambridge to the Union Square substation in Somerville. Looks like that substation won't be getting smaller anytime soon to allow extension of the Green Line to Porter.

 

[erom]

I thought it didn't need to get smaller, just shove over a few feet?

 

[Arlington]

I would think that time-of-day pricing for residential electric users would have widespread support--enough that we'd have an option for smart metering to allow:

• Predictable Lower prices for EV charging overnight (9pm to 5am) when there's slack capacity
• Spot Lower prices on sunny days for "solar noon" (10:30a to 2:30p) when there is often too much solar on the grid

This would create an incentive for people to charge any sort of storage system: EV batteries, home batteries, or thermal-storage tanks (picture heat pump hot water heaters for example, but also simply to "over-climatize" houses when electricity is cheap (overnight in summer) and let the house get a little too un-climatized (hot afternoons).

Conservation/Climate fans should see this as shifting lower prices and higher availability to low-emissions users
Market Solutions fans should love this as using price incentives to re-balance supply and demand

(in a nutshell, nobody should want electric cars charging between 3pm and 9pm and yet we've done nothing to de-incentivize such charging through higher prices)

 

[LtKije]

Vicinity is looking use the Charles River as a source of heat for a heat pump, which they’ll use to produce green steam. (This is in addition to converting another steam unit from using natural gas to green electricity.) Neat idea, and it seems they are already allowed to use river water for cooling, so hopefully shouldn’t be too hard to use it for heating instead, though the article doesn’t delve into whether that leads to environmental or permitting concerns.

A new energy source for downtown Boston: the Charles River - The Boston Globe

The owner of a Kendall Square plant is launching a project to generate steam for Boston and Cambridge by drawing water from the river that runs between them.

www.bostonglobe.com

 

[Stlin]

I'm going to go ahead and pull this into the correct thread.

It seems unlikely that the Mystic Generating Station will close. AI has upset the applecart when it comes to demand for electricity. According to a very recent forecast by the Boston Consulting Group, 'widespread introduction and operation of AI will triple the data-center share of U.S. electricity consumption from 126 terawatt hours in 2022 to 390 terawatt hours by 2030. That’s the equivalent usage of 40 million U.S. homes'. (There are about 145 million 'homes' in the U.S.)

I have some expertise in this space; my opinion is we won't see any major data centers or AI compute clusters in MA at any point in the near future. You're looking for 4 things when you site a data center: Land, Power, Network, Taxes. None of those qualities are conducive to data center construction in MA; land is expensive, so is power, network access is middling, and excise taxes on your servers will kill you. The same is true of our neighboring states. There's a reason that the hyperscale Meta / Alphabet / AWS / Azure (Facebook, Google, Amazon, Microsoft) data centers are all way out in the boonies - think 200+ megawatt, million square foot facilities with a few hundred thousand servers being built out in Iowa, Ohio and the Carolinas.

While power is technically transportable, as interconnected grids prove, but its generally not a great idea. Interconnect capacity is limited, and you have line losses, so ideally you generate it close to where you use it. Mystic isn't going to be a huge help in that regard- its older and therefore more expensive to operate in the first place, and there isn't going to be the local demand. I suspect once the remaining units close, what we'll see are either a smaller more efficient peaker plant or something else that will take advantage of the installed grid interconnects, possibly even an energy storage solution like battery banks. What you'll likely see as the AI clusters begin to expand is that new facilities will get built out where is there is excess power capacity, or AI compute will get retrofitted into existing datacenters. The space moves fast; it won't wait for power plant construction. it'll go where there's excess power, but still close to their existing data centers so that you can parallel compute across separate sites rather than at a single site. (there's increasing focus on making the entire process more efficient; on the I/O side you're looking at ~15pJ/b currently but there's a roadmap to 1.5pJ/b.)

As for AI related demand for electrical power,
Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, leaving utilities and regulators grasping for credible plans to expand the nation’s creaking power grid.

In Georgia, demand for industrial power is surging to record highs, with the projection of new electricity use for the next decade now 17 times what it was only recently.

Northern Virginia needs the equivalent of several large nuclear power plants to serve all the new data centers planned and under construction. Texas, where electricity shortages are already routine on hot summer days, faces the same dilemma.

“When you look at the numbers, it is staggering,” said Jason Shaw, chairman of the Georgia Public Service Commission, which regulates electricity. “It makes you scratch your head and wonder how we ended up in this situation. How were the projections that far off? This has created a challenge like we have never seen before.”

....It also threatens to stifle the transition to cleaner energy, as utility executives lobby to delay the retirement of fossil fuel plants and bring more online. The power crunch imperils their ability to supply the energy that will be needed to charge the millions of electric cars and household appliances required to meet state and federal climate goals.

Utility projections for the amount of power they will need over the next five years have nearly doubled and are expected to grow, according to a review of regulatory filings by the research firm Grid Strategies.

In Texas, a dramatic increase in data centers for crypto mining is touching off a debate over whether they are a costly drain on an overtaxed grid. An analysis by the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie found that the energy needed by crypto operations aiming to link to the grid would equal a quarter of the electricity used in the state at peak demand. Unlike data centers operated by big tech companies such as Google and Meta, crypto miners generally don’t build renewable-energy projects with the aim of supplying enough zero-emissions energy to the grid to cover their operations.

The result, said Ben Hertz-Shargel, who authored the Wood Mackenzie analysis, is that crypto’s drain on the grid threatens to inhibit the ability of Texas to power other energy-hungry operations that could drive innovation and economic growth, such as factories that produce zero-emissions green hydrogen fuel or industrial charging depots that enable electrification of truck and bus fleets.https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/07/ai-data-centers-power/

And Massachusetts is what? Fat, dumb, and happy?

Basically? Yes. Any electricity generated in MA or New England regionally generally stays local. We're not building data centers here - ISO-NE projects exactly 0 MW in planned data center electricity demand above baseline. Here's a chart that's been going around for a little while - its from October so its out of date by now, but is the best estimate I've seen.

All those places you cited with crushing demand are where the hyperscalers (Meta/Alphabet/AWS/Azure) are building out new data centers, the yellow circles on the below map - the closest to us are in Virginia/OH, part of PJM - the mid-atlantic ISO, where yes, the new demand is worth a pair of nuclear reactors in their own right. But look at how little is demanded out of ISO-NE, and NYISO, our immediate ISO neighbors As it stands, we have less than 4% of the data center power demand of PJM. We're simply not going to be part of the AI power crunch because New England is structurally unsuited for large data centers. While we're technically part of the Eastern Interconnect, those lines don't have capacity that will be capable of transferring that much power. Fundamentally, this is a problem that will need to be solved locally there; new generators will need to come online in GA/TX/PNW etc, but here in New England we're generally fine.

In other power grid news, the last NE Coal plants now officially have shutdown dates - Merrimack will close no later than Jun 1 2028 and the Schiller Plant will end its use of its coal boilers by the end of 2025 - They'll become solar anad battery parks.

New England’s last coal plants will close by 2028

Merrimack Station, which is New England’s last running coal plant located in New Hampshire, will stop operating in 2028. In New England, coal makes up less than 1% of the region’s energy.

www.wbur.org