In that case, what's really stopping the City of Newton from just building light rail to Upper Falls? This isn't GLX - you have a fully graded and cleared ROW with no bridges at all. It's just empty ground from the curve to Oak St. Assuming a $100M per-mile cost and a single station with a pair of concrete platforms, it seems like you could do it for under $100M total. Newton North cost twice that.
Of course, that wouldn't happen - Newton would have to lay claim to fare revenue somehow that would never be approved or they'd simply be out the money, but putting an LRT station adjacent to this project would make it ludicrously successful. A pledge by the City to put some portion of the money up against future commercial tax revenue from this site, Nexus, etc. might be moving for Baker.
In fact, why not get Northland and Crosspoint to throw in some bucks, too? This administration has no problem putting transit improvements in on short notice when somebody ponies up the money (witness: Assembly, Yawkey, and Boston Landing). If Mayor Warren started working this, I bet he could do it. Not Needham, not over the river, but to Oak Street, maybe.
If this situation existed in Boston, Somerville, Cambridge, etc., there would be no question about privately-funded transit access. Why should Newton sit out?
Well...it's a shortish branch on a very large-footprint Green Line so logistics matter the world re: the hookup to the rest of the network. You can't do a Mattapan dinky here because it requires some amount of D running from Newton Highlands. Otherwise you're just pinging through a network vacuum without any direct transfer to the outside world except the all-world shitty 59. Then the whole thing about that being way too big an expense for individual towns to swallow, and the "cahnt get theya from here" aspect of the tail tracks at Heights. Which you need...do a mundane cycled tie or ballast replacement job on the branch and you're going to need to stuff 6-10 cars of stone and tie stacks in easy reach of the work shift. Needham Ctr.'s tiny over-capacity CR layover and the 500 ft. of slack track that's left on the Millis side of Junction's wye aren't nearly enough.
But the Amtrak HSR thing and SW Corridor capacity pinch is real. And that's been the huge sea change we didn't have on the radar screen 5 short years ago. NEC FUTURE (FRA working group...not Amtrak-led) is being a tone-deaf dumpster fire with some of the insane and often unnecessary 12-figure things they're proposing that run roughshod over every state-run commuter rail the whole length of the NEC.
Of the relatively few big-ticket things they propose doing in MA compared to other states is the absurd notion that that they can rip up and rebuild the entirety of the SW Corridor to widen it for 4 tracks. Extra capacity only Amtrak gets to use to no commuter benefit whatsoever. The T already feasibility-studied that on a larf 10 years ago for South Coast Rail...only to come back with a >$B price tag and such wanton destruction across Roxbury and South End for so little aggregate benefit that the conclusion was "Yeah...we didn't think that would pass the laugh test." It's archived on the old-old documents on the SCR project page. NEC FUTURE's alternative to the swath of destruction is punitive kneecapping of CR frequencies in a unilateral capacity grab on the current 3 tracks. Something that takes real brass balls to print in an official Scoping Study when MA built the SW Corridor on its own funding and owns it lock-stock. It's so divorced from reality it's literally illegal and wouldn't survive a court challenge.
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The FRA working group is going to be nuked from orbit and disbanded the second the next Administration appoints a new Transpo Secretary, because they've already enraged the Congressional delegations of 7 states including some folks you do not want to fuck with like possible incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Plus...the FRA is a freaking
regulatory agency; they have no jurisdiction over empire-building, so this was all a naked power grab to begin with. They are going to get disbanded in due haste by the next Admin. with their planning work transferred to the FTA/USDOT, Amtrak, and the consortium of member-state Transpo Sec'y. heads it should've been under all along.
And then we start talking the real-world, chopping out the pants-on-head stupid overreach, and balancing the needs of the states. That's going to mean multimodal improvements all up and down the coast, because of the delicate balancing act between intercity and local traffic growth. This means stuff like:
- If MARC is going to be strained for upper-bound growth slots into Baltimore, then the 98 lb. weakling Camden Line is going to need a makeover as a better complement to the Penn Line for WSH-BAL load-spreading.
- If 30th St. Station in Philly is going to be nuts while all CBD growth is centered around there, then that proposed Airport alt-spine bypass might want to include a rapid-transit conversion of the Regional Rail Airport Line. And/or ceding the old NEC alignment to rapid transit conversion of all the local stops east of Chester where the alignments re-merge. And/or moving DelDOT's Wilmington Line schedules to the new spine and quicker Univ. City-Airport-Chester jaunt through PA with rapid transit transfer @ Chester to separate out Delaware demand from Philly-local demand so both have the extra headroom to grow.
- If NJ Transit's Trenton Line--the highest per-train commuter ridership on the whole continent--has a ceiling on growth slots...then NJ Transit should get load-spreading funding for preemptively building the West Trenton Line, and doing the River Line extension from downtown Trenton to West Trenton/SEPTA, and help squaring rights with SEPTA to reinstate the old Hoboken-Philly directs through West Trenton from 35 years ago.
- If the New Haven Line is going to have most Top-five nutso traffic levels in the world, and there's not any non-destructive curve straightening that makes a tangible difference...then Metro North/ConnDOT need station upgrade funding to lengthen all their short platforms to 10 cars so they keep moving with much shorter dwell penalties.
- If Rhode Island is going to get that that tunnel reactuvation + East Providence bypass to ease congestion, add capacity, and extend 165 MPH territory another 10 miles...then RIDOT should get some local transit help to move all those new riders slamming Downtown Providence around. Something like +3 infill stations at Mt. Hope, Woodlawn, and Park Terrace on the AMTK-vacated Providence-South Attleboro stretch so they can run their own South Attleboro-T.F. Green I-295 Indigo Line on all that gained capacity.
And then you get to Boston. The SW Corridor wrecking ball is a nonstarter, so Captain Obvious says:
- Franklin Line moves permanently to Fairmount Line. No capital cost for that switch, so maybe a little pot-sweetener for the state to extend Indigo trains to Dedham Corporate so Franklin Line commuters are getting something unequivocally net-positive for sacrificing their Back Bay stop. South of Forest Hills is now just Providence and Stoughton/South Coast schedules staying the hell out of Amtrak's way on 4 tracks.
- Needham gets the conversion. BBY-Forest Hills is always going to be 3 tracks, so common sense says clear out the 2 commuter rail branches that can be moved at no mobility loss and air the place out coexisting with just 2 remaining routes. Don't illegally kneecap the Purple Line because the feds will lose a state lawsuit in court...and lose HARD. Town of Needham by its lonesome once stopped CR from being Arborwayed 30 years ago with just the threat of a suit. Conversion to Green and Orange halves is $1B+ cheaper than the batshit tunnel destruction. Front 60/40 fed funding split because the whole Green + Orange package requires so little ROW re-landscaping it won't cost more than one-sixth of GLX (less if competently-managed).
Choice selections from this list to the member states gets them their capacity and eager cooperation at a couple hundred beeeeeelion less than that acid-fever alt spines proposal. Especially the most duh-obvious solves like SW Corridor. Things like that make sense even if whittling-down effects ultimately downsize a depressing 80% out of the desired HSR upgrades.
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So this
will happen, because basic common sense. Because it's so obviously the path of least resistance for the feds. Because Amtrak and the FTA are stratospherically smarter than the FRA when it comes to bargaining with other stakeholders. Because the outer neighborhoods of Boston and Town of Needham will never ever allow outright transit loss...and will win a legal challenge in a heartbeat. Because feasibility of the solve was established 70 freaking years ago, revisited multiple times in the ensuing decades, and has been lusted-after by the locals all this time. Because the path for the rapid transit swallow in Needham has to go through Newton first and they've already got their trail plan dead-fucking-set for inexpensive rail-with-trail modding.
It's only a matter of how long it takes. Optimistically...subject's going to have to get serious higher-level discussion for whether it's time to go for it by 2025 or else commuter rail's going to be staring at the 2030 capacity noose to Forest Hills fast tightening on them. We already have the existing-growth traffic modeling math to show it, with or without superduper HSR. Realistically...superduper HSR is going to be a decade later than hoped because government is slow and tortured. But we'll still be squeezed enough on the SW Corridor that 2035 is effectively the drop-dead date for first Green and Orange trains before Amtrak and Providence have to start vulturing schedule slots from the branches.
So...rapid transit here is very much NOT the typical local expansion proposal subject to purely local advocacy with infinite deflection from the state. It's forces way beyond and way bigger than the state who are hastening the dilemma, and who will be forced to pay every bit and more of their fair share for the perma-fix when the time comes.