castevens said:
This team is far from done. Magic number is 3, Yanks are back 3 with 5 games to go...
When I wrote they're "done" I didn't mean the playoffs, I meant in terms of having a chance to win the WS. They had already clinched (basically) at least the Wild Card spot when I wrote that.
I understand they went without Manny, but let's not think that this year's Manny Ramirez was even close to past years. He didn't have the pop in his bat from the get-go. He was going to drive in 100 runs, sure. But he wasn't going to put up his usual .300-30-120 line by any stretch of the imagination.
And Kevin Youkilis is the most over-rated player on the Red Sox. Everyone preaches about his great at-bats and his patience at the plate. If you've watched the second half of the season, he's been flailing away at pitches down and away, he's had trouble on inside fastballs (which is why he's hit so much, because they're gonna pound him inside until he learns to hit that pitch).
Also consider Manny's .359 batting average over the last three years vs. the New York Yankees (and .392 BA this year), you can make a significant argument that a couple of the the 4 losses within 1 or 2 runs vs. the Yankees (3 of those within 1 run) since his injury might have gone the other way.
This I'll give you. The Yankees games could have and probably would have turned out a little differently. I'm not saying that in the last six, instead of going 1-5 they got 5-1, but they at least win one extra game. Manny was a shell of himself this year (pre-injury) but he still had huge numbers against the Yankees.
Fausto Carmona is not proven in the playoffs, and one good 8-inning shutout of the Sox in his only career start vs. the Sox is far from proof that lightening will strike twice.
I always hate that logic. "This guy isn't proven in the playoffs." How proven was Felix Rodriguez when after exactly one month on the Angels he dominates the playoffs and helps them win the World Series? How much playoff experience did Josh Beckett and the rest of the young Marlins pitching staff (Willis, Penny, Burnett) have when they completely shut down very good and great (the Yankees) offenses to win the 2003 World Series? Experience is over-rated, give me the guys with the best stuff and I'll take my chances.
In 2 save opportunities versus the Boston Red Sox in 2006, he blew both saves. Which Carmona will we see? You can't be sure.
Please. Have you seen Carmona pitch this year? He's added a pitch since he was a closer and it's totally different being a starting pitcher and being a closer. Ask Derek Lowe. Derek Lowe pooped his pants the same way Carmona did, on many occasions as the Sox closer, and he turned out pretty good in '02. I think he won 20 games that year.
I don't think the Sox are "done", that was probably a bit too reactionary to what was going on at the time. I think though that to have any chance of winning the World Series their hitting is going to have to actually pull it's head out of it's ass. Even with Manny in the line-up the Sox were struggling to hit good pitching. They need to change that because in the playoffs there's plenty of good pitchers. Drew looks to be coming around and if they can get anything out of him like what he's been doing lately they'll be in good shape.
They also need a pitcher to start the third game. Right now I wouldn't want Dice-K pitching the third game of a Tampa Bay series in April, much less a series in October. I'd think of starting Bucholz, the teams they'll play have never seen him and that's an advantage for the kid.