Post-Covid Travel Patterns and Solutions

[JeffDowntown]

We've had this SFH debate in other threads. A big issue is you cannot disentangle the "SFH desire" with other factors, since prevalence of SFH tends to correlate strongly with other things like good school systems and availability of a guest room for grandma/grandpa to visit and help with childcare. Someone might want to live in the city, but also really want a good school system and is planning their life around some inlaw childchare (or need to do eldercare). Oftentimes something's gotta give. We don't have total independence of variable here; they are hopelessly intertwined.

And we have very few examples of cluster housing here in Greater Boston -- higher density housing that have most of the features of SFH but share one or two adjoining walls with other homes, and tend to have common or semi-private rather than totally private green space.

 

[jklo]

I don't think you've presented any evidence of this. Until you do, it's just vibes.

Going further and further out for cheaper SFH isn't a new thing... but specifically that policy document that had "65% leavers were going to other New England States" is what caught my eye for something more recent.

Before the pandemic you could only go so far before the commute got too long... even to a 128 job.

 

[HenryAlan]

Going further and further out for cheaper SFH isn't a new thing... but specifically that policy document that had "65% leavers were going to other New England States" is what caught my eye for something more recent.

Before the pandemic you could only go so far before the commute got too long... even to a 128 job.

If that's the only thing zoning allows, then people aren't necessarily choosing their housing form. As @bigpicture7 points out, there are multiple intertwined issues, and you can't simply decide that people choosing to live in the only place available means that's where they actually want to live.

 

[Teban54]

This argument reduces the utility of transit to commuting. Perhaps that is how some people experience or use transit, but we must acknowledge that commuting accounts for less than 20% of all trips (source: https://www.transportation.gov/mission/health/commute-mode-share). TOD is not just about making it easy or get to or from work - though that is indeed a major benefit. It's also about unlocking the 80% of trips that are not commutes, and allowing them to take place in something other than a personal vehicle. This is a big part of why off-peak frequency and reliability is so important to the future of transit.

The caveat with this argument is that there's a discrepancy between all trips and trips where transit can be helpful (especially rapid transit). The 80% of non-commute trips that you mentioned include things like going to a local grocery store or restaurant, and I think the vast majority of such trips are short enough that walking and cycling will typically be more effective, especially compared to subways. (Of course, there are many places in the US where even those trips are done in cars, but that typically doesn't apply to urban parts of Boston.)

The Everett Transit Action Plan illustrated this point well:

Most Everett trips are local and are oriented to the north. Transit riders, however, are more
likely to travel to destinations south of the Mystic River.

• Over 20% of all trips beginning in Everett end in Everett.
• Almost 70% of all Everett trips are headed to destinations north and east of the Mystic
  River, including to destinations within City limits.
• Over 40% of trips made using transit are to destinations south and west of the Mystic
  River, including Downtown Boston, Cambridge, and Somerville.

That very same report made several recommendations that redirected some existing bus routes' OL connection from Wellington to Sullivan, even though doing so is a downgrade to local trips to the north of the Mystic River (e.g. to Gateway Mall, transferring to 134 to Medford High School and other buses at Wellington, etc). Additionally, for the SL3 extension analysis, the alignment to Sullivan was clearly favored over Wellington and Malden.

Commuting trips usually come as the #1 consideration for the design of most rapid transit systems worldwide, including in dense cities with extensive rapid transit networks. I think that isn't without a reason.

Of course, I think this does come back to the idea that TOD also allows many of these trips to be done within a smaller area near transit stations where developments take place, rather than in a suburb without good access to any amenities forcing people to drive.

 

[jklo]

If that's the only thing zoning allows, then people aren't necessarily choosing their housing form.

There's enough condos/apartments/etc in da burbz if that's what you want. Even now. These people can afford those. But they are not interested.

 

[bigeman312]

There's enough condos/apartments/etc in da burbz if that's what you want. Even now. These people can afford those. But they are not interested.

There are people who can not afford a condo and would very much like to buy one to live in. Do you not recognize that?

 

[themissinglink]

There's enough condos/apartments/etc in da burbz if that's what you want. Even now. These people can afford those. But they are not interested.

There aren't nearly enough condos or apartments in the suburbs. I live in a suburban town, and there's been a noticeable shortage of apartments and condos for years.

 

[jklo]

Lets just say hopefully nobody is really that crazy to do the NH/ME/RI thing with a condo. Foreclosure is no joke.

 

[KCasiglio]

There's enough condos/apartments/etc in da burbz if that's what you want. Even now. These people can afford those. But they are not interested.

Exactly how are you defining “enough”? The market sure seems to think you’re wildly off base.

 

[jklo]

Exactly how are you defining “enough”? The market sure seems to think you’re wildly off base.

There's stuff to buy.

If you want within 128, yes, you are SOL.

 

[KCasiglio]

There's stuff to buy.

If you want within 128, yes, you are SOL.

Stuff to buy for whom? One look at the available inventory should be a clear indication of how undersupplied the market is. For comparison, I rent a 2bd 1bath in Quincy, walking distance to the red line, for $1650. Per aparments.com, there is 1 equivalent unit within walking distance of a CR station on the Providence* or Old Colony Lines (about a half mile from Montello Station).

*I stopped looking after Attleboro

 

[bigeman312]

There's stuff to buy.

If you want within 128, yes, you are SOL.

A common piece of financial advice is to not spend more than 3x your gross income on your home purchase. That rule could be followed for generations of Americans.

Let’s see how well it can be followed in the Boston area today:

• The median household income in Boston is $89k/year. Therefore, for a home to be affordable for the median household, it would have to cost no more than $267k.

Let’s see the locations in the Boston area where there doesn’t exist a single home on the market (condo or otherwise) that’s affordable to the median household:

• Almost all Boston neighborhoods (with the only exception being Hyde Park): Charlestown, North End, West End, Beacon Hill, Downtown, Seaport, South Boston, South End, Chinatown, Leather District, Bay Village, Back Bay, Fenway, Allston, Brighton, LMA, Mission Hill, Jamaica Plain, Roxbury, Dorchester, Mattapan, Roslindale, and West Roxbury.
• Almost all municipalities in the urban core (with the only exception being Quincy): Brookline, Cambridge, Somerville, Everett, Chelsea, Winthrop, Revere, Malden, Medford, Arlington, Belmont, and Watertown.
• Every single northern suburb: Burlington, Woburn, Winchester, Stoneham, Melrose, Saugus, Lynnfield, Wakefield, and Reading.
• Most North Shore municipalities: Nahant, Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Manchester-by-the-Sea, Gloucester, Rockport, Essex, Hamilton, Wenham, Topsfield, Ipswich, and Newbury.
• Most MetroWest municipalities: Newton, Waltham, Lexington, Bedford, Lincoln, Weston, Wellesley, Needham, Dover, Natick, Wayland, Concord, Carlisle, Acton, Boxborough, Stow, Sudbury, Southborough, Ashland, Sherborn, Medfield, Millis, Medway, Holliston, and Hopkinton.

I could go on and on, but I don’t have all day. This gives you a good idea of a sampling of places where the median family simply can not afford any kind of home, be it a condo or otherwise. We are not talking about the 20th percentile in income. The median family. These are places where, when there is transit infrastructure, could use increased density. It means adding TOD density around Sullivan as much as it means adding TOD density around Ashland Station (and/or around a new CR station near the historic one in the town center of Ashland).

By maintaining the status quo, you are saying that the average household (what’s supposed to be the “middle class”) is not allowed to afford a home in those areas, condo or otherwise. Yet those areas need teachers, police officers, firefighters, social workers, electricians, plumbers, etc. The status quo says that these essential workers should not buy a home in the areas they work. Instead, they either need to rent or commute from far away. Again, not the low income workers, but rather the median income households. That’s not a sign of a healthy housing market.

 

[jklo]

By maintaining the status quo, you are saying that the average household (what’s supposed to be the “middle class”) is not allowed to afford a home in those areas, condo or otherwise.

But they don't want an condo or apartment. They want an SFH. I thought the practice was going to die out with the changing demographics (ie: a dog and no kids) but apparently not.

 

[Teban54]

But they don't want an condo or apartment. They want an SFH. I thought the practice was going to die out with the changing demographics (ie: a dog and no kids) but apparently not.

I'd expect that when you're a median-income family who can't afford any home in the places @bigeman312 mentioned (which is like 90% of metro Boston), when there is any place they can afford, it no longer matters whether it's a condo, apartment or SFH.

Also, I'm not sure if SFH is the overwhelming preference for most people, anyway. I'd guess at least some people would rather live in a lively neighborhood where you can access most things you need within a short walk, and don't necessarily need to endure a long drive for commute, instead of a suburb where you need a car to get anywhere. In fact, there may even be a selection bias here, in that people who come to Boston and/or want to settle down here may be more likely to prefer multi-family housing than the US average.

 

[HenryAlan]

But they don't want an condo or apartment. They want an SFH. I thought the practice was going to die out with the changing demographics (ie: a dog and no kids) but apparently not.

You keep repeating this, and yet you continue to not post any evidence. It is your opinion that people do not want any form of housing besides detached SFH. That does not mean it is true.

 

[jklo]

You keep repeating this, and yet you continue to not post any evidence.

Do you really want me to find that stupid link saying that 65% of leavers are going to NH/RI/ME? (IIRC 20% are going to Florida btw. That would be a helluva commute)

Look, I get people are mad about their rents in Davis Square are skyrocketing. But there's not really much that can be done there.

 

[KCasiglio]

Do you really want me to find that stupid link saying that 65% of leavers are going to NH/RI/ME?

What I'd really like you to do is explain how you think that is evidence of lack of demand for suburban TOD in MA.

It's a lot easier to get a SFH in the states you mentioned than it is to get a condo within walking distance of the commuter rail. Primarily because the competition for the latter is far more intense.

Your argument is the housing equivalent of "nobody goes there, it's too crowded."

 

[millerm277]

Do you really want me to find that stupid link saying that 65% of leavers are going to NH/RI/ME? (IIRC 20% are going to Florida btw. That would be a helluva commute)

Look, I get people are mad about their rents in Davis Square are skyrocketing. But there's not really much that can be done there.

As someone who's not that old:

I know plenty of friends that have moved out to the burbs/satellite cities but didn't want to do so, they just couldn't really afford to live in the city anymore. If their rent was the same as a few years ago as a % of their income, they'd likely still be here.

To the extent that WFH has played a role it's more that it's made it harder to justify taking on an even heavier burden/set of tradeoffs to remain in the city than that it's made them no longer desire the city. The prospect of having to further downgrade their housing in terms of location or quality in the city, get more roommates, etc.

I'll also note that moving to those other areas aren't necessarily moving to low-density SFH in the burbs, most of my personal acquaintances that have left have wound up in/around the satellite cities (which were generally growing faster than the overall average pre-pandemic). A glance at/visit to most of them seems to be that those places have continued to gentrify lately.

 

[HenryAlan]

Do you really want me to find that stupid link saying that 65% of leavers are going to NH/RI/ME? (IIRC 20% are going to Florida btw. That would be a helluva commute)

Look, I get people are mad about their rents in Davis Square are skyrocketing. But there's not really much that can be done there.

No, don't waste your time on that, because it wouldn't validate your claim, which is that people move to exurbs because they prefer single family housing. If that is true, then it isn't about cost. If there is a study demonstrating this, I'd like to see it. If the study you present only confirms that people are moving, but doesn't explain why, then it isn't particularly useful to this conversation.

 

[jklo]

No, don't waste your time on that, because it wouldn't validate your claim, which is that people move to exurbs because they prefer single family housing.

Because these people have enough money that if they wanted to live in a burb MUD in MA, they could do it. They just can't afford an SFH here.

I'll admit that if they get laid off and have trouble finding another remote or mostly remote job, they are not coming back. Either they will suck it up or find an in person job somewhere else in the country.