I think they have to trim some of the administrative bloat to give themselves a fighting chance.
-- Get their fare collection house in order. Get the Charlie-fication of CR on-track. Get EZ-Pass into the parking lots. Clean up the Zone system for better equitability. Get the conductors those hand scanners. Get those PoP doors on the local runs like Fairmount.
-- Shed additional layers of management obfuscation. No commuter rail of this size continues to contract out ops. All run it in-house. Give MBCR a half-size operating extension of 5 years instead of 10 and start the transition in-house.
-- Shed assets they don't need to have.
** Why does the state have its publicly owned common-carrier railroad ROW's owned by so many sub-agencies like the T, DCR, or even the Water Resources Authority (Fore River freight branch in Quincy)? Every other state in New England puts the ownership at the DOT level. Transfer all line ownership to the DOT, including the abandoned lines they're letting themselves get way too dragged into rail trail politics on (to detriment of sister agency DCR that has to maintain those trails amid NIMBY riff-raff).
** Let them keep only the station properties, the ops-supporting properties like main yards and outer layover yards, and the stretches of ROW shared with active rapid transit. If rapid transit is extended along any ROW's, a simple paper transaction can give the ownership back.
** Sell all the dozens of very random misc. non-RR properties or transfer to the DOT so they don't have to be the administrator of all that excess.
-- Consolidate more planning at the DOT mothership.
** They've proven they can't be trusted to juggle capital investments in ops vs. capital investment in expansion, parking, and station aesthetics efficiently.
** Nor can they manage vehicle procurements efficiently without their compulsive overcustomization hurting them. Lots more oversight is needed.
** And a bigger stick is needed to deal with the NIMBY's and the town ransoms that are eating the T alive. Abolish unaccountable riff-raff like the South Coast Rail Task Force.
-- RE: the above, bend the planning back to fulfilling federally obligated improvements: PTC installations, and ADA. They're fucked on the first because they've done almost bupkis for planning, and progress on the second has almost halted save for these overbudget parking sink stations.
** Get held feet to the fire on other ops efficiency standards like level boarding retrofits, lengthening substandard platforms to the current system specs so all doors can open on all trains, purging all remaining single-level coaches for bi-levels to reduce operating costs while increasing capacity (nearly every CR system in North America not height-restricted by the NEC in New York/Philly/Baltimore has long ago gone full-bi...the T is the last one with no height restrictions still operating majority-singles).
-- Clean up the labor costs. Esp. the bloated conductor ranks.
** If the 1 conductor per 2 cars rule can't be changed (and it probably can't), stop putting together 5-car trains that require an extra staffer and build trainsets with even numbers only. Off-peak and weekends when they close some unused cars, have some conductors on flex shifts so they don't have to be tagging along as onboard extras when a near-empty train only fills the front 2 cars and only needs 1 person. They need to add to off-peak schedules, and off-peaks aren't going to be full...so they have to find better ways to keep it lean and efficient.
-- Get much better at data collection and analysis so they can understand their audience better and understand why some stations are succeeding while others are failing.
** They just aren't wrapping brain around the commuter rail audience with the depth and innateness that they should have.
** They've been shooting clumsily on some big bets like those parking sinks and TOD sites without understanding all the full implications or other stakeholders as well as they should, and the results have been too mixed. They have to be directing their money with a lot more accuracy than this.
As for system expansion, focus the priorities a lot more deliberately instead of trying to do too much at one to woo certain 'burbs:
-- 128 is badly underserved.
** That Fitchburg park-and-ride at Exit 26 is an ASAP priority. So is the Haverhill/Reading one at Quannapowitt.
** The North Shore Transit Improvements study can't make the case any clearer for Peabody.
** Bring the Fairmount Line to Westwood in conjunction with the NEC tri-tracking; it's got room to grow with added platforms as demand increases.
** Figure out what's wrong with Dedham Corporate and why that's lagging despite a decent Franklin schedule. How much better would this station take off if Foxboro service doubled up the headways?
** Throw in the towel on Mishawum; it's had 30 years to prove itself, and has been an abject failure in every respect. First as a park-and-ride, now as a reverse commute.
-- Fix the artificial speed restrictions from deferred maintenance and deferred implementation of PTC.
** The Eastern Route in Chelsea needs those Everett Ave. and Eastern Ave. crossing separations, and needs to be resignaled throughout for 80 MPH. It's got the straightaways and wide station spacing around the swamps to handle it.
** The Lowell Line ditto can do 80 and make Anderson a very very quick trip.
** The Worcester Line is apocryphal because of its ancient signals.
-- Add some badly needed local infills.
** How is it that Woburn has gone 32 years missing a downtown-accessible stop that hits any of their bus routes? Montvale or Salem St. infill...NOW.
** South Salem/Salem State...NOW. That denser area of the city has been missing easy walking access ever since the station relocated north-of-portal in '87, the North Shore Improvements study projected outstanding ridership, and Salem State needs the same kind of transit equity that JFK/UMass, Bridgewater State, and others have gotten.
** The lack of a Newton Corner stop deprives Worcester Line riders of some golden bus transfers.
-- "Fairmountings" rollout.
** Riverside via Worcester Line the most obvious next target. Newton Corner infill after New Balance is built, Riverside cross-platform transfer, fix the awful existing Newton stops. Lots more crossovers so thru Worcester trains get an opportunity to pass a local at least once every 2 local stops. Replace most of the Pike express buses with this; it's more reliable, and more people will flock to the fixed route.
** Waltham/128 via Fitchburg...plenty of capacity to spare on the Fitchburg schedule. Study adding back the old Clematis Brook and/or Beaver Brook stops, study whether a bare Alewife platform is worth it (I kind of doubt it, at least right off the bat).
** Reading. Move Haverhill trains back to the Lowell Line to free up capacity. Fixing the single-track pinch at Reading station and refurbishing the freight track around the Wellington tunnel into a full mile-long passing siding (officially proposed) helps with the headways.
-- Quasi-"Fairmountings" on the mainlines that have to load-balance branches. In some cases DMU's aren't an all-day solution because those 6-7 car monster trains are needed to serve multiple branches, and the schedule slots are predicated on the endpoints limiting the ability to time 'pure' clock-facing. There are ways to work around that.
** Flush the branch schedules fuller on the lines like the Eastern Route (Newburyport/Rockport/Peabody and NH Mainline (Lowell/Haverhill). The frequency at peak ends up being 95% the same as a DMU with only minute variances in headways balancing the branches. These branches do need it. As long as the fare collection for inside-128 boarders is similar to the full "Fairmountings" they get the same quality of service. These schedules need push-pull's seating capacity...DMU's would be woefully adequate for loads. And these are the lines with wide stop spacing where DMU vs. push-pull performance difference is at its smallest.
** Off-peak...that's the time to bring out the DMU's and backstop the 128 short-turn headways to "Fairmounted" equivalent. The branches don't have the demand to run all-day peak service because their 495 constituencies are primarily 9-5'ers. But Anderson, Woburn, Winchester, Salem, Lynn, Peabody do have all-day walkup to tap. So it's not an all-day DMU thing like Fairmount, Riverside, Waltham, Reading...just a targeted booster shot the hours those monster capacity push-pulls don't serve up a de facto clock-facing schedule.
-- Buses need to be better coordinated.
** Hyde Park is all messed up right now with the local buses mostly stopping at Cleary Sq. next to the very light-service HP station on the NEC. Why have they not all been looped down the block to Fairmount where the headways make for better transfers? HP station is only going to get bypassed more in the future as the NEC gets congested. It should be on long-term phase-out in favor of Fairmount.
** When GLX reaches Route 16 it really needs to string together a 16-W. Medford-Wedgemere-Winchester Ctr. high-frequency bus. More Haverhill trains coming to the Lowell Line are going to keep skipping West Med and Wedgemere because that's the best way to keep Haverhill/Plaistow a tight, manageable, and delay-free hour on the schedule. Winch Ctr., Woburn infill, Anderson, and Wilmington are the ones that are going to see 2x headways...not the Medford stops. Those areas actually get better frequency with the bus to GLX augmenting than they'd get through the CR schedules.
** Anderson needs lots more connecting buses as a superstation. 128 expresses are very anemic out there. Burlington especially can benefit not having to take the slow buses or deal with the delays on the Alewife express.
-- Don't forget about the 'tweener destinations a little outside 128.
** Norwood and Walpole are mega-ridership stops, with Norwood being an urban downtown contributing good all-day ridership. Foxboro service 2x'ing Franklin headways pumps a huge amount of ridership into Norwood + Walpole. The benefits of frequent service on the inner mainline are even bigger than the Foxboro branch itself.
** Framingham. One of the biggest reasons to fix the godawful Worcester infrastructure. Another one with all-day walkup. If it's going to be a frequent short-turn, might even make sense peeling out at the junction onto the Fitchburg Secondary to a Framingham State U. +1-stop turnback for the short-turn schedule.
** Brockton. I don't think the Middleboro line needs to short-turn here or have DMU's because the demand extends all the way to M'boro and the Red Line duplication inbound makes inside-128 local service a non-need. This is more like the Eastern Route where those trains need the seating capacity and push-pull does just fine for the schedule. But it's a downtown grower with an excellently integrated bus system. That might be worth a Zone fare tweaking rewarding the city, its car-free accessibility, and BAT to help it add routes to other area destinations. Don't forget about the headway boost places like this get with added Cape Rail service, a la Norwood with Foxboro service. And it's a reason to start chipping away at the single-track pinch points upstream.
-- As mentioned a couple times above, the commuter rail should have a goal of providing transit equity to all the state U and community college campuses rail-accessible or rail+shuttle -accessible in the district. The state's commitment to public higher education should have direct ties to its commitment to public transit.
** The commuter rail has barely even begun to touch its potential student audience, who disproportionately rely on transit. These are all-day riders not bound to 9-5 schedules. They are often priced out of car expenses, and will willingly take the cheapest possible transit option even if it's a really bad bus trip.
** The commuter campuses are a huge untapped resource. Park-and-rides to school are a pain. And for poorer students the expense of driving can be the difference between them enrolling at all. These kids will take the commuter rail if their schools can subsidize fares equitably.
** With the number of campuses within shuttle bus distance of a CR stop, I can think of few more worthy subsidies the state can add to their extremely well-invested state U and state CC system than a good transit pass subsidy program for students, equivalent to the kinds available on the rapid transit system. And to fund free shuttle buses to the nearest stop. Regardless of whether they're inside 128, at one of the 'tweeners, around 495, or way out at the end of the line...students have to be considered a prime candidate for fare relief.
** Here are all the schools affected (CR...not the ones exclusive to rapid transit or city buses). Some with pre-existing access to CR, some that could have their access much-improved, some that need access. Bridgewater State, Framingham State, UMass-Boston, UMass-Lowell, UMass-Worcester Med., Salem State, Fitchburg State, Worcester State, Mass Maritime (Buzzards Bay), Northern Essex CC (Haverhill), Quinsigamond CC (Worcester), North Shore CC (Danvers...shuttle from Peabody?), Mt. Wachusett CC (Gardner...shuttle from Wachusett), Middlesex CC (shuttle from Lowell/N. Billerica), Mass Bay CC (Wellesley), Cape Cod CC (West Barnstable...shuttle from Buzzards Bay and later W. Barnstable when CR comes on-Cape), Bristol CC (Fall River...shuttle from Taunton and later FR), UMass-Dartmouth (shuttle from Taunton and later New Bedford).
** That's just the public schools. The privates can go just as hog wild with better CR access and subsidies too if the state give them the fare control tools to do so and encourages the shuttle bus access. Brandeis is perhaps the biggest of all that can reap the windfall, anchoring the all-day ridership on a Waltham short-turn. Just look at how outsized their stop is already on Fitchburg boardings in the Blue Book.