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BPDA says that Seaport condos are 53% owner occupied -- qualifying for the owner occupancy tax break (residential exemption) in the City of Boston. That would mean owner-occupied dominates the Seaport. (To get the tax break the unit has to be your primary residence in the given year -- pied-a terres generally would not qualify.)
53% is a dominant number? I'd argue that absentee owners don't need to be a majority for their presence to dominate and define a neighborhood. 47% non-owner-occupied dominates way more than 53% owner-occupied does.
 
I'd be curious what the vacancy/unsold percentage is. Super luxe is overbuilt and both Winthrop and St Regis are not at capacity, and Ritz SS is going to make the issue "worse". Long term inventory will be the biggest problem here from a developer's perspective. And if I were an investor/institutional fund I don't think an asset that has waning demand would be something I'd want in my portfolio.

There are certainly lots of pieds-a-terre both downtown and in Seaport (probably true in Back Bay and Beacon Hill too), and the mechanism to address this is loss of the residential exemption. Worst case is everyone gets over-leveraged, the developers have to refinance/take a bath and units are pushed out at fire sale prices or in an auction (see St Regis). Parcel H in Seaport will be another test, so we'll see how that shakes out.


Edited to add that there are at least a thousand rental units in Seaport as well, and demand gets reflected in pricing much more efficiently in rental units than sales. Since Boston's overall rental vacancy rate remains one of the lowest in the country at something like <2%, this is likely true in Seaport too. Renters add to neighborhood dynamics too.
 
53% is a dominant number? I'd argue that absentee owners don't need to be a majority for their presence to dominate and define a neighborhood. 47% non-owner-occupied dominates way more than 53% owner-occupied does.
53% is certainly a majority. Financial institutions differentiate between above and below 50% for condo financing (but what do they know?).
 
...47% non-owner-occupied dominates way more than 53% owner-occupied does.
I don't quite think so, since the 47% is very likely not a homogenous group. It's probably a mix of all of: pieds-a-terres, vacation/seasonal homes, units being used as rentals, etc. I'd say that the 53%, categorically, means the owner occupants are indeed the dominant group.
 
I don't quite think so, since the 47% is very likely not a homogenous group. It's probably a mix of all of: pieds-a-terres, vacation/seasonal homes, units being used as rentals, etc. I'd say that the 53%, categorically, means the owner occupants are indeed the dominant group.
Two of those three categories would leave the unit empty most of the time, and more relevant to the initial conversation, they would care less about the nature of the immediate area vs. the centrality of the location (and accessibility from out-of-town through the Airport and South Station) as compared to full-time owner-occupants.
 
Two of those three categories would leave the unit empty most of the time, and more relevant to the initial conversation, they would care less about the nature of the immediate area vs. the centrality of the location (and accessibility from out-of-town through the Airport and South Station) as compared to full-time owner-occupants.
I would not assume pied-a-terres leave the unit empty a large fraction of the time. I know people with downtown pied-a-terres who occupy the units 4-5 nights per week -- moving to their coastal, suburban other homes for the weekend. Vacation/seasonal homes, yes likely empty a significant fraction of the time. Rental units are full time occupancy because luxury buildings usually forbid short-term rentals -- rentals are long-term leases.
 
BPDA says that Seaport condos are 53% owner occupied -- qualifying for the owner occupancy tax break (residential exemption) in the City of Boston. That would mean owner-occupied dominates the Seaport. (To get the tax break the unit has to be your primary residence in the given year -- pied-a terres generally would not qualify.)

This number is artificially low since a fair number of the other 47% of condos are held in LLCs and certain trusts that don’t qualify for the exemption and could very well be primary homes.

I'd be curious what the vacancy/unsold percentage is. Super luxe is overbuilt and both Winthrop and St Regis are not at capacity,

Winthrop is around 27% sold and St Regis 54%.
 
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I'd be curious what the vacancy/unsold percentage is. Super luxe is overbuilt and both Winthrop and St Regis are not at capacity, and Ritz SS is going to make the issue "worse". Long term inventory will be the biggest problem here from a developer's perspective. And if I were an investor/institutional fund I don't think an asset that has waning demand would be something I'd want in my portfolio.

There are certainly lots of pieds-a-terre both downtown and in Seaport (probably true in Back Bay and Beacon Hill too), and the mechanism to address this is loss of the residential exemption. Worst case is everyone gets over-leveraged, the developers have to refinance/take a bath and units are pushed out at fire sale prices or in an auction (see St Regis). Parcel H in Seaport will be another test, so we'll see how that shakes out.


Edited to add that there are at least a thousand rental units in Seaport as well, and demand gets reflected in pricing much more efficiently in rental units than sales. Since Boston's overall rental vacancy rate remains one of the lowest in the country at something like <2%, this is likely true in Seaport too. Renters add to neighborhood dynamics too.
I'm curious on what the square footage price comparison is with Back Bay super luxe, notably the units in the Raffles and Four Seasons hotels (the tower). If I'm spending millions on a place to live or even park some money, I'd much rather have 24/7 concierge from a top hotel in the building (and for the in-laws) along with a far greater selection of surrounding shops and things to do. Back Bay is still the most dynamic part of Boston in that regard. I love the Seaport for its visuals, but few are pushing baby strollers around in this place.
 
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I'm curious on what the square footage price comparison is with Back Bay super luxe, notably the units in the Raffles and Four Seasons hotels (the tower). If I'm spending millions on a place to live or even park some money, I'd much rather have 24/7 concierge from a top hotel in the building (and for the in-laws) along with a far greater selection of surrounding shops and things to do. Back Bay is still the most dynamic part of Boston in that regard. I love the Seaport for its visuals, but few are pushing baby strollers around in this place.

Quick look indicates Raffles and 1 Dalton are at ~$2400/sf for a 2/2 unit (only based on current inventory, not past sales). In Downtown, the one listing at South Station tower that's a comp is running right at $2,000/sf and Winthrop is running between $1,800-$2,500/sf depending on floor and exposure. St Regis looks to start at $2,000/sf for similar units but gets up to $2,500 pretty quickly. Things might have been different in the past and I don't feel like trying to pull historical sales (they won't matter much once a few hundred new Ritz SS units come on the market) but it's clear that the true downtown units are going for less than the peak Back Bay or Seaport waterfront spots. For what it's worth, Liberty Drive units at the end of Fan Pier seem to be higher than all of the above. Listings are at ~$2,700/sf going over $3k...

In any case that's a ton of super high end inventory, and that's not mentioning "very nice but not super luxe" buildings like 45 Province, Parker on LaGrange, old Ritz, the Common-facing buildings or Back Bay/South End row houses, or the Fan Pier Parcel H Project or the new India/Broad St unit on the Greenway that are going up right now. Even though it's a pretty small slice of all buyers, there's a ton of negotiating power if you had $4-$6M to deploy on a central Boston unit these days...
 

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