This kind of ties into that article.
I got this on:
http://www.infrastructurist.com/
Is China on the Brink of a Full-Fledged Property Collapse?
Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is not optimistic about China. He predicts that the country?s property market is teetering on the edge of a ?collapse? that inevitably will hit the banking system as well.
And he?s not the only voice of doom on the horizon. Analysts at Standard Chartered PLC are forecasting that property prices in China?s big cities will drop as much as 30% from their mid-April levels, all in the second half of 2010. To prepare, China?s five largest state-controlled banks are planning to raise as much as $54.5 billion of capital by selling bonds and shares ? this is after they extended record loans last year to support a government-led stimulus plan.
The world markets are certainly worried about China: Last week investors sent the Shanghai Composite Index, China?s benchmark stock index to a 6.7% loss, its worst loss in more than a year ? though it recovered 1.9% of that today on speculation that recent losses were excessive. It?s been quite a roller coaster, given that the Chinese government said the country?s economy expanded at an 11.9% annual rate in the first quarter ? its biggest increase since 2007.
For years now, China has been a prime example of extreme modernism at work ? while the consumerist middle class continues to grow, all the while demanding more cars, houses, and space, the government has poured billions into massive building projects and infrastructure upgrades. And the rate of growth has caused plenty of hiccups ? take the ?abandoned cities? trend that?s been sweeping the nation. And while the U.S. financial markets have certainly been grateful recently for China?s continued prosperity while the rest of the world tanks, there?s no guarantee that making such drastic changes to your country?s infrastructure and, correspondingly, your culture won?t have serious repercussions.
The Chinese government isn?t turning a blind eye to the maybe-definitely-possible housing crisis ? so far authorities have raised minimum mortgage rates and down-payment ratios for some home purchases, and they may also institute a trial property tax. Meanwhile, the rest of the world (and certainly everyone on Wall Street) will have to wait and see what happens.