The Economics of Building in Boston, Part 2

Seems to me that Arlington has become more Davis Square-ish already, even without the T, in that beer-and-wine licenses have produced a proliferation of ethnic restaurants. The #77 bus line is the most frequent in the entire T system, and always seems to be well-used whenever I ride it. The sections of Arlington that adjoin Mass. Ave. are densely settled and quite walkable.
 
Guess like anything, it all depends on how it is done. If it were above ground and caused noise (as the blue line does in part of East Boston) as a neighbor, I would strongly oppose it. Which line is being extended matters too. Not sure (and I mean that) if the impact that the orange line has had on Malden center would be good or bad, but moving it in Charlestown sure did seem to help. Again, it was the EL, so its form was certainly an issue for abutting neighbors. In the case of Lexington, it is a pretty desirable town for many people; sure they wouldn't want to mess w/a good thing.
 
Banker & Tradesmen said:
Developers Face Constant Challenges
By Thomas Grillo
Reporter

The year began with a storm of protest that forced Mayor Thomas M. Menino to withdraw his support for a 22-story dormitory on Beacon Hill.

As 2007 ends, a well-organized effort is under way to convince the Boston mayor to kill plans for a pair of high-rises at the Prudential Center.

Some dismiss the community activists as NIMBYs, the acronym for residents who fight development on their block. But protesters insist that they are not against development but want any new construction to fit the scale of Boston?s historic neighborhoods. The story was all too familiar in 2007: Developers propose something, and neighbors work to reduce the size and scope of the project.

In January, Menino backed Beacon Hill residents in their fight to prevent Suffolk University from building a high-rise dormitory at the edge of their neighborhood. The university had planned to raze the former Metropolitan District Commission headquarters at 20 Somerset St. and build 550 dorms. But the plan received strong opposition from neighbors who said a nearby residence hall already is the source of numerous complaints.

Last summer, Suffolk abandoned the plan and purchased a building in Downtown Crossing. The Boston Redevelopment Authority approved Suffolk?s proposal to convert 10 West St. in Downtown Crossing into a property that will include 274 dorm beds with ground-floor retail.

Today, the fight has shifted to the Prudential Center, where Boston Properties and Avalon Bay Communities want to build a 19-story office building at 888 Boylston St. and a 30-story residential high-rise across from the Boston Public Library. Some neighbors and elected officials insist the buildings are too tall.

Despite a flurry of opposition from Prudential Center tenants, as well as the Back Bay and Bay Village neighborhoods, Menino has not curbed his enthusiasm for the project.

?There was opposition to the Mandarin at first but we worked with the community to come up something everyone can live with,? Menino told Banker & Tradesman last week, referring to the $230 million Mandarin Oriental hotel scheduled to open next summer on Boylston Street. ?The public review process for the two buildings is still ongoing.?

Gregory Selkoe, a former BRA official and Menino critic, said neighborhood opposition does not guarantee that the mayor will pull the plug on a proposed development.

?The mayor won?t abandon his support for a project just because there is neighborhood opposition ? just look at the [biotechnology] lab,? Selkoe said about the controversial research center under construction in the South End despite protests about studying some of the world?s most dangerous viruses in the densely populated section of the city. ?It very much matters who is lined up against it, who has political clout and who has the mayor?s ear.?

Need proof? Just ask a handful of property owners at Strada234, the luxury condominium development on Causeway Street near the TD Banknorth Garden. Some of the property owners have urged the mayor to halt plans for Lovejoy Wharf, a 14-story luxury condo development with views of Boston Harbor and the Leonard Zakim Bunker Hill Bridge.

Robert Sarno and 21 other Strada residents filed suit in Suffolk Superior Court to stop the $85 million project at 160 North Washington St. and 131 Beverly St. being developed by Ajax Management Partners. The project would feature 250 residential units and 40,000 square feet of retail space at the underutilized 2.1-acre waterfront site.

?Apparently, the city hears only the voices of established neighborhoods and not the voices of neighborhoods like ours, [which are] in transition,? said Sarno. ?We want to make our part of the city as attractive as our Beacon Hill neighbors. But it?s proving hard to do when Causeway Street residents get treated as second-class citizens. What do we have to do to become valued Bostonians??

While some abutters say the mayor only listens to a portion of city residents, developers tell a different story. While builders would not to talk on the record for this story, fearful of retribution from Menino, privately they say the mayor micromanages every development decision.

?The approval process is so arduous, risky and arbitrary that only the biggest developers with the deepest pockets have the staying power and ability to push their projects through,? said Selkoe. ?Only the most connected can build anything in this city. All roads lead to Rome and in this case, Rome is Menino?s office at City Hall.?

In response, a BRA spokeswoman said the agency works with developers and community members to review project proposals, all of which go through a lengthy public and community review process before any decisions are made.

A ?Very Strong? Picture

But not every project faced opposition in 2007. Joseph Fallon broke ground on Fan Pier to pave the way for the city?s most ambitious 21st century neighborhood. The $3 billion dollar development spans 21 acres across nine city blocks on Boston Harbor. It will include 3 million square feet of residential, commercial, hotel and retail space.

Last summer, the BRA approved the $700 million One Franklin St. project, better known as the Filene?s redevelopment. The 39-story mixed-use project by Gale International and Vernado Realty Trust will bring new office, hotel, residential and retail space, in addition to a brand-new home for Filene?s Basement. Construction is expected to be completed in 2011.

On the office market side, 2007 continued to offer good news for downtown Boston landlords with rising rents and shrinking vacancies. Overall, Boston?s 58 million square feet of office saw the vacancy rate fall to 6 percent at the end of 2007, down from 8.5 percent one year ago, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, the global real estate services and money management firm. Average asking rents soared to $54.80 at the close of the year, up from $37.31 last year, a 47 percent increase.

Nearly every Boston submarket saw a decline in vacancies while rents increased, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. Back Bay had the lowest vacancy rate at the end of 2007 with just 3.6 percent, down from 5.4 percent last year. Average rents in the Back Bay grew to $65 per square foot, up from $40. In Charlestown, vacancies fell to 15.1 percent from 17.4 percent in 2006. Rents in Charlestown increased to $31, up from $25 in 2006.

In the Financial District, the vacancy rate dipped to 5.9 percent at the close of the fourth quarter, down from 8.6 percent last year while rents soared to $59.36, up from $40.39. At North Station, where several new residential and retail developments are under construction or in the pipeline, vacancies slipped to 9.6 percent from 15.3 percent while average rents increased to $28.19, up from $27.83.

In South Boston?s waterfront, vacancies fell to 8.6 percent from 10 percent, as rents climbed to $33.92 from $27.83. In South Station, vacancies were flat at 4 percent as rents increased to $42.29 in 2007, up from $26.51.

Among the biggest deals in 2007 was Blackstone Group?s $39 billion purchase of Equity Office Properties, which was the nation?s biggest private real estate sale of all time and made Blackstone the largest Class A landlord in Greater Boston. Ropes & Grey leased more than 400,000 square feet of space at the Prudential Center.

?It?s been a banner year and the picture is very strong when you think about the real estate fundamentals,? said Ronald K. Perry, executive vice president at Meredith & Grew. ?Rents are up across the board, sale prices are up, vacancy rates declined significantly and net absorption was strong as businesses continued to grow.?
NLA
 
Re: Paving Rail

"I'm not sure which elite you're talking about here. You can buy a bicycle for less than the price of a monthly commuter rail pass. Other of walking, I can't think of a mode of transportation that is less elite than bicycling. People of all ages, levels of education, and income do it"

Nothing wrong with bicycling for exercise, Nothing wrong with rock climbing or polo as exercise either

However, in this climate --you can not expect any proportional fraction of the population to commute via a bicycle

In the winter --only die-hards will do it
In the summer you need showers at the end point of the commute

That's why I said it is for the elite

On the other hand the Commuter Rail through Arlington and Lexington was still functional into the 1970 time frame

I wouldn't be opposed to a subway with a bike path on top -- a la South West Corridor -- but realistically -- the expense of subway is untenable
One possible solution {initial phase of a later restoration of full service} would be an electric bus shuttling back and forth along the Minuteman Bike Path Right of Way from Alewife to Arlington Heights and then regular Bus street service up Mass Ave from there

Westy
 
Wouldn't that just be the 77 bus? Or the 79? They come pretty regularly, and as much as taking the bus sucked it was great to have them.
 
"Wouldn't that just be the 77 bus? Or the 79? They come pretty regularly, and as much as taking the bus sucked it was great to have them."

No,

The difference is that in traffic the 77 Bus can become just another stuck vehicle en route to Arlington Heights via Mass Ave in Cambridge and Arlington Center.

On the other hand a 77-like electric Rail-Bus has its own dedicated Right Of Way and so when it stops to pick-up or discharge passengers {especially if the bus needs to spend some time with a mobility impaired passenger} ? then the Bus wouldn?t slow down other vehicles. In addition, with a dedicated ROW a rail-bus doesn't get stuck at Red Lights when someone is making a late Left, etc.

As opposed to traditional Internal Combustion powered Commuter Rail -- If the Rail-Bus is electrically powered via overhead trolley wire or has on-board Hydrogen Fuel Cell electricity generation -- then the neighbors shouldn't complain about emissions or much noise

With a continuing stream of frequent electric rail busses Arlington Heights would be connected usefully by one transfer from DTX and South Station

Ordinary street buses could then leave Arlington Heights for Lexington Center via diverse routes {e.g. Mass Ave, Lowell Street, Concord Ave.} offering more frequent service and a broader range of routes that would be served

Everyone in Arlington and Lexington would benefit -- and perhaps they would see the long-term benefit of the Red Line or some alternative service extended to the Hartwell Ave. industrial zone where a giant parking garage could divert Rt-2, Rt-3 and Rt-128 commuters. The Hartwell terminal would also support frequent service to the various industrial and office venues along Rt-128.

But ? I doubt that any of this will come to pass in the next generation unless the price of oil was to rise to $399 per barrel

Westy
 
The 77a electric bus used to go out to Arlington Heights, there are a number of old trolley poles still along Mass Ave, but I believe residents voted to tear down the wires. Arlington is changing though and I'm sure one day not too far off you will see Arlington residents clamoring for improved transit.
 
Re: ?The 77a electric bus used to go out to Arlington Heights, there are a number of old trolley poles still along Mass Ave??

Not only that: I saw the repaving of a section of Mass Ave a few years ago. Just below the Heights -- they had to cover over rail still in the street. Mass Ave in the early 20th Century through the immediate WW II period at least? -- had a Trolley to Harvard Square. This complemented the Commuter Rail into North Station running on the Minuteman Bikeway ROW.

My guess is that the electric buses probably came in the late 40's to replace the trolleys and then diesel buses replaced them in the 60's. It was consider being modern at the time.

I doubt that we will see new street rail lines anywhere where it is not already located {at least in part ? e.g. Heath Street branch} in the Boston area.

However, rail in a protected ROW {such as the Minuteman Bike Trail} is making a major comeback in many cities in the US and in Europe. I suspect that we will see some new surface light rail in protected ROW {old rail road tracks?} in Boston in the next 30 years or at least a start by 2030 {exclusive of the Green Line to Somerville and Medford}

If I was to guess at likely candidate locations:

1) Arlington
2) Charlestown
3) Chelsea
4) Southy {SilverLine}
5) Roxbury

WEsty
 
Yeah, the same places they used to go before the powers that be decided to rip up the rails. We have very short foresight in this country.
 
I thought both Russia Wharf and Filene's redevelopment has already started?

Economy fears may ground some Hub office tower plans
By Scott Van Voorhis | Wednesday, January 23, 2008 | http://www.bostonherald.com | Business & Markets

Stock market tumult and growing recession fears are casting a shadow over the Hub?s development scene, with plans for new office towers now facing an uncertain future.

More than a half dozen new high-rises and mixed-used development projects have been proposed in downtown Boston and its environs, from a 1,000-foot skyscraper to the redevelopment of the landmark Filene?s building.

But, due to growing economic uncertainty, only one or two of these projects are likely to start construction in the next few years, according to some industry executives. So far, the only new office building where full-scale work has begun is at Fan Pier on South Boston?s waterfront.

William Wheaton, an MIT economics professor, said job growth and demand for new office space in Boston, despite recent rent increases, have been relatively weak. A downshift in the economy will only intensify those trends.

?The bloom is off the rose,? Wheaton said. ?I would say demand is pretty tepid right now. If anything, that outlook is a little more bearish.?

Industry executives are watching closely a number of projects that have been taxiing on the runway, but have yet to take off. These include Boston Properties? plans for a new office tower at Russia Wharf, a $600 million remake of the Filene?s block and a long-planned tower over South Station.

Developer Dean Stratouly, whose 33 Arch St. was the last high-rise built in Boston, sees room for just one more tower in the next few years.

He?s placing his bets on Russia Wharf, backed by deep-pocketed Boston Properties.

?Beyond that, I think it?s the next real estate cycle before you see any meaningful development of new office towers,? he said.

Article URL: http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view.bg?articleid=1068419
 
These include Boston Properties? plans for a new office tower at Russia Wharf, a $600 million remake of the Filene?s block and a long-planned tower over South Station.

Killing the Filene's project would kill Downtown Crossing.
I think Menino will do everything he can to push that project through.
 
^^ Doesn't mean they can't still be killed.
The developers can just walk away.
 
^^ Doesn't mean they can't still be killed.
The developers can just walk away.

True, but it makes more sense to build now. If the developers already have the proper loans in place, they can build during the recession, possibly paying cheaper wages and costs. Banking on the fact that the recession will be over by the time construction is finished, they should have a good amount of tenants lined up.
 
I find it hard that the developers would walk away from theses sites. I could see Columbus Center or SST being delayed, but the other two are well into site prep, especially Russia Wharf. We are hitting a low point in our economy, but like the last low point, 2001, it lasted about a year and picked back up. It's not all gloom and doom!
 
The same forecasts "doomed" 111 Huntington and 33 Arch St. a few years ago. Remember, the Empire State Building was even completed well into the Depression...
 
this recession is alot realer and will last far longer than that one in 2001. some say the days of recessions are over, but until some things change structurally, a full blown recession for a long time could hit. structural would be oil, a war overcrowding private loans, and ALOT of foreign investment that could start getting scared and pull out. I really doubt the SST is going to happen anytime soon. Filene's and Russia should get done even though very little has really been done to either.
 
I think the Filene's site is only 500,000 SF office, so it's somewhat buffered in a bad economy. The mix of uses include office, retail, hotel and residential - so hopefully this will get built because each different use insulates the developer somewhat from risks in one particular market. Still risky, of course.

I have my doubts over the viability of the South Station Tower, given it's large upfront costs and large amount of office space to be built on spec. We shall see...

Russia Wharf already has a lot of money committed to it, and I doubt the city will let Boston Properties leave the half-demo'ed facades up like a Western ghost town. Plus, I think they have an anchor tenant (Wellington)

At Fan Pier, Fallon is "pushing dirt" right now. I'd want to see steel rise before I believe this is happening, although again, at only 500,000 SF of office, it's likely he'll proceed - it's not a 50-story 1M SF++ tower or anything - just a rinky-dink little Burlington-style office park.
 
Stupid articles that cover more than one development:

Development slowed by financing delays
By Scott Van Voorhis | Tuesday, February 5, 2008 | http://www.bostonherald.com | Real Estate

Principals of even some of Hub?s grandest development schemes are scrambling to firm up loan packages and financing amid Wall Street turmoil and recession fears.

Despite vows to begin work soon, developers behind projects that would remake the landmark Filene?s block, build an $800 million air-rights complex over the Massachusetts Turnpike and raise a skyscraper over South Station are still working to firm up their financing.

?This is a very tricky time and it is a real serious down cycle in real estate,? said John Rosenthal, who is lining up city and state approvals to build a major air-rights project near Fenway Park [map].

At Downtown Crossing, the team pushing plans to redevelop the landmark Filene?s block is just now homing in on a $500-million-plus construction loan.

That is roughly six months after John Hynes, the project?s lead local developer, had said he hoped to begin full-scale work.

Hynes acknowledged a combination of factors has helped push back the project?s timetable. They include permit delays and the international credit crunch that has made it more difficult for developers to secure financing.

Despite the complications, Hynes said he is closing in on a deal with lenders and plans to have a loan wrapped up in the next two months.

?There just aren?t many lenders willing or able to commit to $500 million at a pop for one city project,? Hynes said. ?That was not the case a year ago.?

Meanwhile, Texas real estate firm Hines, which plans to build a tower over South Station, is also in the money hunt. Hines executive David Perry said, recently, the financing package it needs to begin work on the $800 million skyscraper is ?in process.? The project won regulatory approvals in 2006.

Columbus Center developers have decided to forge ahead with construction of their $800 million air-rights complex over the Turnpike, even as they scramble to replace a key piece of financing.
Article URL: http://www.bostonherald.com/business/real_estate/view.bg?articleid=1071298
 
^^^
I notice he no longer mentions Russia Wharf, which supposedly has a major tenant for the office space. I suspect Columbus Center has enough money on hand to at least build the deck; given the lead times, they have probably already ordered the steel.
 

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