New Red and Orange Line Cars

It's worth noting both that the MBTA and CTA contracts were originally awarded to CRRC's predecessor companies, CNR and CSR, respectively. (CSR also bid on the MBTA order, but was disqualified after the technical evaluation phase.) The MBTA order was also originally smaller—284 cars—before another 120 Red Line cars were added to the order in 2016 replace the 1800s and for expansion.
 
Although, there is a question there - the LA metro and CTA CRRC orders also predate the introduction of anti-China tariffs, both dating to 2016. CTA's order is comparably sized to the MBTA's, (400 vs 404) and was even more aggressively priced than the MBTA's - (632M, 1.58M/car vs our 871M, 2.12M/car) - but my understanding is that neither of them have amended their contracts to adjust for tariffs, and so far CRRC has managed the same approximate 2-3MP/month rate for CTA out of their IL facility as for the T out of Springfield.

Now granted, both of those agencies are probably less desperate than Boston - the CTA has the youngest average fleet of any transit agency in the US, and might be able and willing to wait until 2030 for completion and the LA metro order was small, but it's still notable that the T had to kick in an extra 148M when the CTA didn't.
Not a lot beyond the shells is actually Chinese-manufacture in any of those orders, so you have to go chasing down all the subcomponent manufacturers to see whose tariffs are actually in effect for how much. For the CTA cars, they had something like 2 dozen component manufacturers with close to 80% of them being U.S.-based. I don't think that percentage is nearly as high for our cars. For example, all of the propulsion systems for the Red/Orange cars are Mitsubishi Electric, so the guts of the cars are way more Japanese than anything else. CRRC is basically a systems integrator for the designs and an assembly works for the deliverables; they aren't vertically integrated with component self-fabrication like a lot of other really big rolling stock manufacturers are. Our Green Line Type 10 order, by contrast, is going to have a much higher percentage of self-fabbed CAF components than the CRRC's.

This is another reason that the "OMG! The railcars are spying on us to the Chinese!" hysteria was so overblown. The electronics and computers weren't theirs to begin with, and were only touched by them upon installation by American workers in Springfield.
 
All of their current North American clients have backed away. SEPTA infamously canceled its commuter rail coach order (there's a couple of nearly-complete cars within photography distance sitting in the Springfield plant's yard). And both L.A. Metro and CTA in Chicago passed on very large-quantity option orders of their ongoing orders. The Springfield plant is getting shuttered in 2-1/2 years when the T's order is complete. Nobody here is going to touch them for a generation; they're getting the same multi-decade death penalty that Breda and Nippon Sharyo got after fucking up multiple large/make-or-break orders. And that fate was clinched well before the tariffs got increased. They're totally radioactive.

That leaves a perfectly serviceable brand new railcar assembly plant in the state, and a very big task for the state to try to attract a new tenant. It's not going to be easy, because unless Hyundai-Rotem wants to dip its toes back in the Buy America waters a few years after closing their disastrously incompetent Philly plant there's not a lot of vendors in this now very consolidated industry who truly need another U.S. assembly plant. Most of the big boys are all set on capacity.
Agreed. I was referring to the period between the sanctions and the screwups. If they had fulfilled those contracts, I was suggesting that repeat orders from Chicago, LA and Boston could have been extensive enough to warrant not giving up
 
By the schedule, this month is the first that we should expect to see 3 pairs delivered (1 orange, 2 red) as part of the contract reset. We've finally reached the divergence point between the reset schedule and past performance - it'll be fairly informative as to future outlook and drive the retirement dates of the legacy RL fleet.
View attachment 60112
I was unaware that the Red Line was expecting to receive more than 1 pair per month before the OL deliveries were complete. That's pretty exciting, even if they get somewhere between the schedule and the worst case. There are now 3 full CRRC train-sets running consistently on the RL. I expect they are approaching having a fourth set as well in the next month or so. Then I expect a month or more delay before the 5th set arrives. Here is my tracking of how many sets are running: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...OPpJAwg6Cj/pubhtml?gid=2106022433&single=true
 
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Four new Red Line trains are now in service, according to the New Train Tracker.
newtraintracker.JPG
 
NETransit updated to show 2 more Orange acceptances (up to 130 active cars) and 2 more Red acceptances (up to 26 active cars). That's probably the reason why there are at long last 4 active Red sets, as they can now run 4 with a loss of any 2 cars down for warranty mods. 10 Red cars in-testing, 8 Orange cars in-testing. Deliveries still averaging 1 pair per month per line.
 
Testing on the Orange Line
View attachment 61514
Cars 1534, 1535, 1538, and 1539.

Picture taken at 08:54 on April 1, 2025.
That "NEXT TRAIN" sign is new to me and based on my general understanding of the Back Bay Orange line stop, not needed as each side of the platform is unidirectional. Has that fact changed? What general need is that signage serving?
 
This is from Forest Hills, the final stop on the line. Since there are often two trains laying over at the end of the line, that sign tells passengers which train is departing next. It's also at Alewife (and I presume other termini).
 
That "NEXT TRAIN" sign is new to me and based on my general understanding of the Back Bay Orange line stop, not needed as each side of the platform is unidirectional. Has that fact changed? What general need is that signage serving?
This is a picture of Forest Hills, which is the southern terminus of the Orange Line.

Orange Line trains use both tracks for southbound arrivals and northbound departures. Trains layover between trips for a few minutes at whichever track they arrived, before departing northbound. A crossover north of the platforms allows trains to switch tracks for regular operation on the rest of the line.
 
NETransit updated. . .

134 active Orange cars, 30 active Red cars. Theoretically they now have a 5th active set for Red, though that's not been the practice lately likely due to pairs being down for warranty mods. 4 Orange cars in-testing, 8 Red cars in-testing. Orange deliveries have still been averaging 1 pair per month, but it appears that there were no Red deliveries in March so perhaps an indicator of more schedule slippage from CRRC.

Interestingly, 8 of the 01600-series old Red cars are now listed as out-of-service "awaiting repair" instead of being stored awaiting scrap, so they are likely scrambling to band-aid what they can now instead of letting the ailing cars pile up on the scrap line. Probably in reaction to the need to run 4-car rush hour trains from lack of serviceable bodies, and possibly also related to the apparent schedule slippage in new deliveries.
 
So, is the present situation in Washington reason enough to rebuild the newer RL cars?
 
So, is the present situation in Washington reason enough to rebuild the newer RL cars?
No. Virtually all rolling stock on the system is a veritable United Nations of subcomponents, including the Canadian-built Bombardier 01800's. We'll get hit with tariffs any which way, including fabbing replacement components for the 31-year-old Bombers. The CRRC's are mostly Japanese (Mitsubishi) propulsion with some American electrical guts and computers, Chinese shells, and Chinese livery. It's a sliding scale of what components are going to get hit at what rates, with no real way to bob and weave around. There's already been a couple tariff adjustments on the contract for Biden tariffs. There'll be more of the same for the Trump tariffs, but it won't be enough of a scare to entertain nuking the contract. The only way out is to nurse this thing to completion.
 
No. Virtually all rolling stock on the system is a veritable United Nations of subcomponents, including the Canadian-built Bombardier 01800's. We'll get hit with tariffs any which way, including fabbing replacement components for the 31-year-old Bombers. The CRRC's are mostly Japanese (Mitsubishi) propulsion with some American electrical guts and computers, Chinese shells, and Chinese livery. It's a sliding scale of what components are going to get hit at what rates, with no real way to bob and weave around. There's already been a couple tariff adjustments on the contract for Biden tariffs. There'll be more of the same for the Trump tariffs, but it won't be enough of a scare to entertain nuking the contract. The only way out is to nurse this thing to completion.
One minor point: yes it's Mitsubishi Electric, a Japanese company, but specifically Mitsubishi Electric Power Products of Warrendale PA. I don't know what portion of that is comprised of imported components, especially further upstream, (as is likely some significant portions are) but the complete propulsion assemblies are Buy America compliant, and therefore probably mostly US content. The same is true of most of the non-body components.
Screenshot_20250406_144129_Adobe Acrobat.jpg
 
One minor point: yes it's Mitsubishi Electric, a Japanese company, but specifically Mitsubishi Electric Power Products of Warrendale PA. I don't know what portion of that is comprised of imported components, especially further upstream, (as is likely some significant portions are) but the complete propulsion assemblies are Buy America compliant, and therefore probably mostly US content. The same is true of most of the non-body components. View attachment 61668
Just a note that usually most of the USA content on those types of Buy America complaint assemblies is assembly labor, not components.
 
Just a note that usually most of the USA content on those types of Buy America complaint assemblies is assembly labor, not components.
Err, it does and doesn't at the same time. This is a core part of my work at the moment, since I work in manufacturing where federally funded infrastructure projects ultimately make up a decent chunk of business - meaning my work life is presently interesting.

It's a puzzle, since every federal agency has a slightly nuanced take on what exactly Buy America means - and not that it fully applies in this case as the T used state funding to purchase these cars which aren't tied to the specifics of the federal regulations, but for the sake of simplicity I'm going to assume that CRRCs claims of US content at the component level meet the FTA's guidelines.

The FTA definition can be simplified as purchase cost of major components must exceed 70% domestic content in the aggregate. Explicitly, final assembly labor of putting major components together cannot be included in the domestic content test. So, if the shell is 100% Chinese and composes 30% of the total value, the remaining 70% of major components must be 100% domestic content. The test for if a major component itself is domestic is whether the subcomponents are; the FTA guidance explicitly includes subcomponents one step removed from the final component. Those subcomponents are also required to be at least 70% US content in the aggregate for the major component to count as domestic. Think of a subcomponent such as the armature inside a major component such as the traction motor. (the CFR citation below predates the 2016 FAST act raising the threshold from 60-70%, but note that compliant subcomponents then count as if they were 100% domestic content once at the components level). That means someone like Mitsubishi, supplying the traction motor, also had to include 70% by value Buy America compliant armatures, brushes, windings etc. in such a regime, only 30% of subcomponents could be of foreign manufacture (notwithstanding foreign made of domestic content). As the test is purchase cost or cost of production, that does mean that the subcomponent manufacturers is also including their domestic labour costs as part of the final content test. And yes, a subcomponent could largely consist of largely imported sub-sub components two steps removed. But, being so far removed, one can assume that tariffs would make up a a significantly smaller portion of the cost relative to domestic labour.

The major problem with the new tariffs is how foreign content is calculated - for purposes of Buy America content tests, the cost of a foreign component explicitly includes two additional items other than the actual purchase price - "transportation costs to the place of incorporation into the manufactured product ... and any applicable duty." Lets simplify. Our hypothetical widget currently meets the FTA requirements with 70% US content and 30% foreign content by value from Canada. With a 25% tariff (Duty), that foreign component suddenly jumps to 37.5% - and the final assembly is no longer Buy America compliant. There is zero guidance out there about what this means yet for open procurements, since our current administration doesn't value regulation. Keep in mind his executive order limiting new CFR regulations - to implement the rules that take this into account, the FTA will have to go through the rulemaking process to eliminate 10 others.

 
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