Amazon HQ2 RFP

[stellarfun]

I think you can stick a fork in Baltimore.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/...column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
_______________________

Long profile of Bezos.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/12/technology/jeff-bezos-amazon.html?_r=0

Several [of my] takeaways.

It appears he compartmentalizes his several residences to align with different parts of his empire. His property in Texas is aligned with Blue Origin; his property in Washington DC is aligned with the Washington Post and what appears to be his growing interest in convening and facilitating political, social, and economic dialogues; his very large estate in Beverly Hills is aligned with Amazon's media-related production.

His focus is on Blue Origin and Amazon projects that are several years down the road (near-term, mainly 2-5 years). Present-day Amazon appears to be largely delegated.

Social liberal, donating tens of millions on scholarships for Dreamers. He may be disinclined to locate HQ2 in a state where the politics are at odds with key aspects of his social liberalism.

Cost of doing business is very important for Blue Origin, because there is no revenue stream.
https://www.blueorigin.com/careers

 

[Rover]

Why are we still talking about Baltimore? No, I'm serious, why? I lived there for two years before moving to Boston, it's a nice city, but it loses to Boston in basically every metric talked about here: education, local talent pool, public transportation, government, even its strengths like its hospitals are overshadowed by Boston's. Does anyone actually have any tangible data on literally anything Baltimore has over Boston?

There's a couple of posters out here enamored with the city, which by most accounts is a dump. Opinions may vary of course, but being the murder capital of the USA (per capita) and as I found out from the gas pump TV update when driving through there this weekend, its also the bed-bug capital of the US as well! No wonder 100,000 people have left over the last 25 years...

I liken it to this: My family (but not me personally) are from Fall River. Lets say I started posing about how Fall River is the balls, anybody with a brain should locate there and get in on the ground floor, blah blah blah. For the first 5 posts you'd probably indulge me. The next 5 posts people would start responding with facts, like crime rates, poverty, unemployment and depopulation (sound familiar?). For the 5 posts after that where I'm STILL touting the place as being awesome, I suspect people would start ripping on it just for fun. That's where we're at right now on the Blight City - I mean Charm City.

 

[HalcyonEra]

There's a couple of posters out here enamored with the city, which by most accounts is a dump. Opinions may vary of course, but being the murder capital of the USA (per capita) and as I found out from the gas pump TV update when driving through there this weekend, its also the bed-bug capital of the US as well! No wonder 100,000 people have left over the last 25 years...

I liken it to this: My family (but not me personally) are from Fall River. Lets say I started posing about how Fall River is the balls, anybody with a brain should locate there and get in on the ground floor, blah blah blah. For the first 5 posts you'd probably indulge me. The next 5 posts people would start responding with facts, like crime rates, poverty, unemployment and depopulation (sound familiar?). For the 5 posts after that where I'm STILL touting the place as being awesome, I suspect people would start ripping on it just for fun. That's where we're at right now on the Blight City - I mean Charm City.

It is also because this is an entirely speculative thread. Amazon is all about cash flow. Which is why Bezos was able to become one of the richest people in the world before the company even turned a profit. While yes Boston has much to offer, probably more than almost anywhere, the cost of living and operating here may be a significant detriment to their model. Also don't discount their piss poor reputation as far as treating employees badly. That works when you do not have much competition, but in a diverse employment market like Boston, it's another story. So yeah, talking about Baltimore and other bad-on-paper places is warranted.

 

[TheRifleman]

Even if Amazon does not build its 2nd headquarters in Mass. I still expect Bezo will invest in Mass somehow by having a smaller office footprint near MIT. These companies will not make the same mistake as companies in the past like GE. They need to be close to the Talent pool and know what is being created or innovated of these schools or they could find their companies in outdated very fast which could just wipe them out.

 

[SeamusMcFly]

Even if Amazon does not build its 2nd headquarters in Mass. I still expect Bezo will invest in Mass somehow by having a smaller office footprint near MIT. These companies will not make the same mistake as companies in the past like GE. They need to be close to the Talent pool and know what is being created or innovated of these schools or they could find their companies in outdated very fast which could just wipe them out.

Really going out on a limb here eh?

Seeing as they already have a small (and growing) footprint here already.
https://www.amazon.jobs/location/bostoncambridge-area-ma
Currently 298 full time jobs in the Boston/Cambridge area looking to be filled, with the bulk in Cambridge (near MIT.)

And, they've recently announced they are looking for 1M sf of new office space in the area.

Not a particularly small footprint.

 

[shmessy]

It is also because this is an entirely speculative thread. Amazon is all about cash flow. Which is why Bezos was able to become one of the richest people in the world before the company even turned a profit. While yes Boston has much to offer, probably more than almost anywhere, the cost of living and operating here may be a significant detriment to their model. Also don't discount their piss poor reputation as far as treating employees badly. That works when you do not have much competition, but in a diverse employment market like Boston, it's another story. So yeah, talking about Baltimore and other bad-on-paper places is warranted.

+1 - Exactly. And pretty easy to comprehend. Maybe Rover can get a caregiver to explain it to him. In all seriousness, he does comprehend that, but just wants to carry out a petty and lame joke routine.

Boston ain't getting the H2Q - - not because it is a lesser city to whichever city gets it, but because it is better geared to smaller footprint high-tech development (maybe several, non-contiguous ones).

The HQ2 is going to cause a seatload of disruption to any city that lands it. It will change the character of whichever city gets it. Boston doesn't want, nor does it need, its character to be changed by one corporation. There are plenty of desperate cities out there that will gladly swallow that pill. Boston can't and won't.

Boston is already winning in the league it plays. The 1 million+ square feet that Amazon is looking for in the Seaport will be up and running a decade-plus earlier than the 4th or 5th million of the eventual 8 million sq ft of Amazon HQ2

Simple as that.

 

[Ruairi]

The HQ2 is going to cause a seatload of disruption to any city that lands it. It will change the character of whichever city gets it. Boston doesn't want, nor does it need, its character to be changed by one corporation. There are plenty of desperate cities out there that will gladly swallow that pill. Boston can't and won't.

I'm not sure amazon wants to locate to a desperate city. The more I think about it, the more I think Bostons' bid is a good one. I think a fear of sea level rise, the inability to build high, and bad congestion might put them off but the list of positives far outweighs these.
They'll look for a liberal city on the east coast where their DINK with dog employees will be happy.

 

[Equilibria]

Really going out on a limb here eh?

Seeing as they already have a small (and growing) footprint here already.
https://www.amazon.jobs/location/bostoncambridge-area-ma
Currently 298 full time jobs in the Boston/Cambridge area looking to be filled, with the bulk in Cambridge (near MIT.)

And, they've recently announced they are looking for 1M sf of new office space in the area.

Not a particularly small footprint.

Yes. No matter what happens with HQ2, Boston will be getting at least 12.5% of that office space, and much sooner than whatever city wins the big prize.

Best guess is that this building will be for Amazon. All of it. HQ2 is seven more of these.

 

[estyle]

Yes. No matter what happens with HQ2, Boston will be getting at least 12.5% of that office space, and much sooner than whatever city wins the big prize.

Best guess is that this building will be for Amazon. All of it. HQ2 is seven more of these.

Somehow I don't think HQ2 is going to be seven OMA buildings. I'd be happy if it was, but it's certainly not headed that way.

 

[Rover]

I'm not sure amazon wants to locate to a desperate city. The more I think about it, the more I think Bostons' bid is a good one. I think a fear of sea level rise, the inability to build high, and bad congestion might put them off but the list of positives far outweighs these.
They'll look for a liberal city on the east coast where their DINK with dog employees will be happy.

The only hope these cities have is if Bezos has a White Knight complex and wants to be known as saving a certain place. Problem again is most of these places have poor education systems, hence a not very talented workforce, and have little in the way of $$$ to pony up for either transportation with seems to be a big thing for Amazon as well as incentives. If Baltimore to use an example can't even fund its police force, how exactly will it be able to pony up incentives to compete with a place like NYC?

 

[shmessy]

The only hope these cities have is if Bezos has a White Knight complex and wants to be known as saving a certain place. Problem again is most of these places have poor education systems, hence a not very talented workforce, and have little in the way of $$$ to pony up for either transportation with seems to be a big thing for Amazon as well as incentives. If Baltimore to use an example can't even fund its police force, how exactly will it be able to pony up incentives to compete with a place like NYC?

Land availability, space for more housing stock and cash/tax incentives (in the words of Mr. Randall Moss, "straight cash, Homey") - - the very reasons why Newark is a good possibility.

Amazon wouldn't locate for the Boston Public School system any more than the Baltimore Public School system. In reality, these people would live in Howard and Montgomery Counties - - 2 counties that (perhaps surprisingly to those who don't know) compare well to Norfolk and Middlesex. I have lived in 3 of those 4 counties (Middlesex, Howard and Montgomery) and I can tell you, for quality of life, schools, tech talent, economic strength, safety, etc. Howard and Montgomery are every bit on the same level as Norfolk and Middlesex.

Once again (because this, evidently needs repeating for you), inner city Boston has it over Baltimore by miles. But if you are considering land space, cost and cash/tax incentives, not to mention location - - then compare the commuter suburbs and their quality of life - - then Baltimore makes far more sense for a huge "city within a city".

Once again, Rover, no one is saying Baltimore's inner city is anywhere near as good as Boston is. There's a reason why Amazon is going to build 1+ million square feet right away in the Seaport. But the calculation is different for a "city within a city" 8+ million sq ft for one corporation.

That being said, my money, as things have progressed, is now more on Atlanta, Austin or Newark (NYC and the ransom that Christie just pushed through).

 

[Ruairi]

Land availability, space for more housing stock and cash/tax incentives (in the words of Mr. Randall Moss, "straight cash, Homey") - - the very reasons why Newark is a good possibility.

Amazon wouldn't locate for the Boston Public School system any more than the Baltimore Public School system. In reality, these people would live in Howard and Montgomery Counties - - 2 counties that (perhaps surprisingly to those who don't know) compare well to Norfolk and Middlesex. I have lived in 3 of those 4 counties (Middlesex, Howard and Montgomery) and I can tell you, for quality of life, schools, tech talent, economic strength, safety, etc. Howard and Montgomery are every bit on the same level as Norfolk and Middlesex.

Once again (because this, evidently needs repeating for you), inner city Boston has it over Baltimore by miles. But if you are considering land space, cost and cash/tax incentives, not to mention location - - then compare the commuter suburbs and their quality of life - - then Baltimore makes far more sense for a huge "city within a city".

Once again, Rover, no one is saying Baltimore's inner city is anywhere near as good as Boston is. There's a reason why Amazon is going to build 1+ million square feet right away in the Seaport. But the calculation is different for a "city within a city" 8+ million sq ft for one corporation.

That being said, my money, as things have progressed, is now more on Atlanta, Austin or Newark (NYC and the ransom that Christie just pushed through).

Atlanta is getting a lot of love, but I just don't see it. It seems like a nice city but it's way too spread out and has nowhere near the public transit system Amazon would look for. The quality of life is great for families and middle aged people but not for young tech types just out of college. Staff turnover is huge at Amazon and they'll be doing their best to give employees what they want and I dont think thats Atlanta.
Austin would be a better bet but again, lack of decent transit and I think Amazon will want to be closer to Europe. Philly could be a good outside bet.

 

[Rover]

If Amazon's request is to be believed, doesn't public transit rank high on the requirements? If so, Baltimore and especially Atlanta are screwed. Atlanta has no commuter rail and a subway line that's pretty small, anecdotally I've heard from relatives down there that the wealthy white 'burbs do not want to be connected to the inner city. Also, if you think Boston's traffic is bad....

Baltimore's subway system is even smaller according to these rankings:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_rapid_transit_systems_by_ridership

Commuter rail stats as well: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_commuter_rail_systems_by_ridership

I could see Austin's other attributes (available land, not a slum, lots of tech talent, cheaper costs) overriding the lack of transit. Austin's biggest problem IMHO is the conservative politics of the state it resides in more than anything else.

 

[stellarfun]

I'll take my scalpel and slice away at Atlanta, Austin, etc.

Atlanta is out because Sen. Perdue (R. GA) is leading the charge against the Dreamers and immigration reform.

Austin is out because Amazon already has 7,000 or so employees working just at its Whole Foods HQ. And Austin lacks an international airport. Austin with 60-70,00 Amazon employees would be like Amazon in Seattle on steroids. (Bezos probably has little enthusiasm for Texas politics at the state level, and for most of the state, Austin and Houston being exceptions.)

The only Philadelphia site with 100 acres is the Navy Yard.

The whole state of NJ is out because the state is a fiscal mess. Same can be said of Illinois.

Port Covington (Baltimore) is not a hub and spoke location. There is no easy commute between Rockville in Montgomery County and downtown Baltimore. By car, its about 40 miles. By mass transit (commuter rail) its a two hour trip.

 

[shmessy]

I'll take my scalpel and slice away at Atlanta, Austin, etc.

Atlanta is out because Sen. Perdue (R. GA) is leading the charge against the Dreamers and immigration reform.

Austin is out because Amazon already has 7,000 or so employees working just at its Whole Foods HQ. And Austin lacks an international airport. Austin with 60-70,00 Amazon employees would be like Amazon in Seattle on steroids. (Bezos probably has little enthusiasm for Texas politics at the state level, and for most of the state, Austin and Houston being exceptions.)

The only Philadelphia site with 100 acres is the Navy Yard.

The whole state of NJ is out because the state is a fiscal mess. Same can be said of Illinois.

Port Covington (Baltimore) is not a hub and spoke location. There is no easy commute between Rockville in Montgomery County and downtown Baltimore. By car, its about 40 miles. By mass transit (commuter rail) its a two hour trip.

1) Re: Bezos' supposed distaste for TX politics keeping him away from the state - - 2 words: Blue Origin. But good point regarding the international airport component.

2) Re: Baltimore - I live just north of Rockville (Olney, MD) - -approx 25 miles from DC and 30 from Baltimore - - I can state unequivocally, it is FAR quicker and easier to drive into Baltimore than to DC. It's not even in the same ballpark even though DC is closer. For all the techies in Columbia and Ellicott City (compare Howard County on almost every level to Middlesex) it is even easier. BTW:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States

 

[Rover]

Re: Baltimore - I live just north of Rockville (Olney, MD) - -approx 25 miles from DC and 30 from Baltimore - - I can state unequivocally, it is FAR quicker and easier to drive into Baltimore than to DC. It's not even in the same ballpark even though DC is closer.

Ummm....did you ever stop to consider the easier commute is because nobody wants to go to Baltimore? Sometimes the simplest explanation is the right one.

I don't get the logic. Because the city is hollowed out and hundreds of thousands of people have left it over the last couple of decades.....that makes it MORE attractive? Okay... I guess that makes Detroit the frontrunner then?

 

[shmessy]

Ummm....did you ever stop to consider the easier commute is because nobody wants to go to Baltimore? Sometimes the simplest explanation is the right one.

I don't get the logic. Because the city is hollowed out and hundreds of thousands of people have left it over the last couple of decades.....that makes it MORE attractive? Okay... I guess that makes Detroit the frontrunner then?

Once again, you fail to comprehend the unique situation of a 50K+ employee, 150K+ family member, 8 million sq ft+, 20+ year project.

This is not GE moving into a couple of warehouses or Amazon getting 1 million sq ft in the Seaport.

I get that you look down your nose at Baltimore, you make that abundantly clear.

I grew up in Newton Centre, graduated from Newton South and then Brandeis. I could be the biggest Eastern Massachusetts snob possible. I can unequivocally state that the suburbs in Howard and Montgomery County are every bit as educated and progressive as Norfolk and Middlesex counties. They also happen to have far higher median incomes and LOWER housing costs. Their public school systems also track very well versus Boston's suburban school systems. Maryland's state university system is superior to Massachusetts (and I say that from personal experience as my kid just got into the Isenberg School of Management at UMass Amherst and didn't even dare to apply to U MD, which believyoume would have saved his dad alot of cash!). Where Boston has the advantage is in private universities and its center city.

Living is richer, less congested and the infrastructure is better in Baltimore's suburbs (not the north and east, but the southern and western side, towards DC).

I've spent 23 of my 53 years in Newton/Waltham and the rest in Howard and Montgomery counties . I spend plenty of time in both areas, going back for 3-4 weeks each years in total to visit my family in Newton and Brookline. I'm not sure you really know what you are talking about regarding one of the two areas (other than from what you can Google about the inner city of Baltimore.)

Yes, Boston is spectacular and a better city than Baltimore. No doubt.

Amazon is expanding 1 million+ sq feet in the Seaport for the hipsters they want to employ for their AI, etc. For the managers/executives of a HQ mini-city - -different set of considerations.

AT this point, I don't think Baltimore is in the top-tier of what Amazon is looking for in this particular case. However, it makes a helluva lot more sense than Boston (HQ2-wise). But that's just the opinion of someone who's lived in both places for many decades.

 

[tysmith95]

^I agree with you that the Maryland suburbs are nice. However I believe that we're seeing a shift from suburban areas being desirable to urban areas being desirable. Look at GE, Philips, Converse, New Balance, Reebok, Alexion, and others. Suburban office parks are slowly dying.

Maryland is more similar to Connecticut then it is to Massachusetts. Maryland and CT are places where the suburbs are nice, but the inner cities are, to quote trump, shitholes.

 

[stellarfun]

With respect to Blue Origin in Texas, Bezos owns about 200,000 acres in west Texas. The larger portion (165,000 acres) is for launches and recovery of Blue Origin spacecraft. There is also a 30,000 acre ranch which serves as a residence. The nearest town is Van Horn. Van Horn is 120 miles east of El Paso, and 165 miles west of Odessa. Its a launch site because civilization is absent.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewe...l=31.197990981398476,-104.85215805876464&z=15

 

[shmessy]

^I agree with you that the Maryland suburbs are nice. However I believe that we're seeing a shift from suburban areas being desirable to urban areas being desirable. Look at GE, Philips, Converse, New Balance, Reebok, Alexion, and others. Suburban office parks are slowly dying.

Maryland is more similar to Connecticut then it is to Massachusetts. Maryland and CT are places where the suburbs are nice, but the inner cities are, to quote trump, shitholes.

None of the examples you gave are one corporation, 8 million+ sq ft and 200,000 human beings.

It is going to take an entire metro area, a big transformation and a willingness to transform. Boston is doing too well already to even want to put up with that. If they somehow (and I can't see it happening) get the Amazon HQ2, I will be able to time with a stopwatch when the "No Olympics" and Elizabeth Warrens of the area creep out of the woodwork to peck away at Bezos regarding all sorts of complaints. He knows exactly what he's doing. When it comes to Boston, don't get too big.

Boston has already done well with the almost immediate 1 million sq ft Seaport deal with Amazon.