Commuting Boston Student
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CBS is not advocating waiting for any of these moments, he is trying to describe some "not-the-Olympics" event which will (or should) galvanize the political class into action.
I find his case uncompelling. The "bridge collapse" ones are too unlikely (overstating the decay and disaster), and all the likely ones already have mostly already happened and the Political Class shrugged it off (like recurring Green Line accidents, CR delays, crowding at peak times, etc.).
CBS has thus far opposed "only-the-Olympics" position (best stated by Equilibria), which holds that the Olympics offers a new and likely-effective basis for mustering the political will to follow through on all the projects that the Gas Tax (boosted by indexing) was supposed to deliver between now and 2024.
I agree with Equilibria. The disasters are short term things that favor "investigations" and short-term fixes. (aside from firing a few scapegoats, did anything change in the epoxy/bolt tunnel collapse fatality?) The Olympics is a plausible 10-year (5 election cycle) thing that will require long-term will (and repeated votes to "do" gas tax indexing via a vote, for example)
I'm not sure it's all that unlikely that we could wake up one morning to a metro region where OTP of 50% is considered "better than usual." That's not going to happen overnight, but if we continue to do nothing we're inevitably going to end up there.
But that kind of systemic failure is worlds apart from the specific failures we've had to deal with on the T circa 2014. I have no doubt that the politicians would and will continue to do nothing as the system continues to degenerate so long as the people - in spite of their vocal complaints - continue to use the system. Regular, routine and consistent failure on the order of less than 50% OTP and the sheer volume of failing switches or failing railcars that would contribute to that rises above the level of "bitch about it on the internet but show back up at the T stop tomorrow just the same." Instead, in that city, anyone with a choice to get out will be leaving. At "best" they'll just be leaving mass transit and exacerbating our traffic/congestion issues. At worst they'll be fleeing to cities that take better care of their things. Either way, as go the people so too goes the urban tax base and the economic health metrics.
You're right in that it's pretty easy for politicians to ignore and defer today. I don't believe it will be nearly as easy for them to ignore when headline after headline is about the "brain drain" to other cities, report after report of population and property values and revenue and spending all plunging, perpetual rush hour on every major street.
I don't really want to see that happen, but that's inevitable if we do nothing. The question then becomes "how much worse do things need to get before the pain is too much to keep ignoring?" It's clear that we're nowhere close to that point, but then again we're also nowhere close to 50% OTP and it's been a while since the last major bridge collapse in this country.
Maybe instead of spending time organizing an Olympics, we could sink all our time into researching magic pixie dust that we could sprinkle on the state house to get legislators to fully fund transportation projects and speed up their time lines?
Correct. Instead of sinking all our time organizing an Olympics, I want us to spend time reorganizing Beacon Hill into a form that isn't fundamentally broken. The "magic pixie dust" commentary is actually more appropriate for an Olympics, which will - at best - defer the problem of our love of deferring problems until after the international spotlight is once again off the city.