Planning an Olympics for the Seaport would mean delaying the completion any other development there for ... 15 years, probably. From 2015 - 2029, given that new projects wouldn't break ground until 2025.
I don’t think that’s the only or even the most likely outcome if Boston2024 were to shift over to the Seaport for the stadium. If they do that, they’ve got a good chance of running into the same thing they’re running into out at the proposed Olympic Village site on Columbia Point: events have passed them by (partially).
One recent Dorchester Reporter article provided a decent overview of the parcels within the proposed Olympic Village that are already under construction or green-lighted:
http://www.dotnews.com/2015/columbia-point-building-boom-goes-face-olympics-push
One such parcel is owned by Corcoran Jennison, and Michael Corcoran is quoted describing a meeting with Boston 2024:
“They said, “Well, we could do something like this and work around our parcels,” said Corcoran. “My impression was that they had gotten a little ahead of themselves. I don’t think they really expected to win this thing. But they’ve certainly come in to see me since and we’ve had a couple of follow-up conversations on the phone.” (In case it’s not clear, that first sentence is the Reporter quoting Corcoran’s memory of what “they” – someone from Boston 2024 – said to Corcoran. The Reporter was not at that meeting.)
The article describes other issues out there.
So at the Seaport, there’s an obvious wave of investment capital flooding into the area. I cannot know how far that flood of capital has reached, but I am very confident in speculating that a lot of bare sites have firmly committed options on them, and things just haven’t progressed far enough for me to have seen an app go to the BRA. So while it’s fun to play the game of “a stadium could go here, or there, or over there…” – I’ve played the game, too – those sites might be committed to someone else already.
If I were on either side of such an option, optionee or optionor, would I be obliged to hit the pause button for 10 years for the Olympics? Not unless the city or state used eminent domain, and that’s been ruled out. Could I be convinced to hit the pause button for 10 years? Sure, if someone throws enough cash my way. That’s one hot market out there, so it’s going to be a lot of cash to make me wait ten years. And I’d probably not want to take the risk of uncertainty on what the market there looks like in 10 years: the transportation planning failures could choke it to death, there could be a recession then, etc. So I’d more likely negotiate for Boston 2024 to pay me enough to just sell completely (or forfeit my option if that’s the side I’m on) and go away. In such scenarios, Boston 2024 would be negotiating with both a landowner and an option holder, in an ultra-hot market. Get your checkbooks out, ladies and gentlemen.
These considerations in the Seaport might be exactly why Boston 2024 drew the stadium at Widett in the first place. They may have already gotten rebuffed by the owners and optionees at all the large enough parcels in the Seaport. Or, if not outright rebuffed, they may have seen asking prices that they choked on. But now that they're grasping the financial hurdles of decking over the T yards, maybe they're going back to those folks in the Seaport for another round of negotiation, at a higher price.
This is all speculation: fun, ain't it? But has Boston 2024 achieved "proof of concept", for either their stadium or the athletes' village? Um.....
I think Corcoran might be on to something with HIS speculation quoted above, "I don't think they really expected to win this thing."