3 days ago, they had it possibly taking more of a straight line through the straight and staying on a straight north path, then, passing east of Hatteras then, eventually slamming within 50 mi of Narragansett Bay, like the 1938 Hurricane.
Then they changed it to curving a bit more to the west, and likely hitting somewhere between southern NC and Hatteras Island, before going extra-tropical. but it's a slow mover, and it will be coming about 24 days after water-temp peaks, so, even if it had made a more 1938ish path, it'd still likely made landfall in New England as a Cat 1 or strong tropical storm... or even having taken on extra-tropical characteristics.
i'm thinking we'll end up with a good soaking and maybe some gale force winds by next weekend.
The 1938 storm screamed up the coast in mid-sept w/ near-maximum seawater temperatures.
Great New England Hurricane stats;
Max Recorded Wind: 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, Milton, MA
Lowest Observed Pressure: 27.94 in (946.2 mb) at Bellport, NY
Estimated Lowest Pressure: 27.79 in (941 mb) near Brentwood, NY as the wind and pressure centers were slightly displaced due to its fast speed and extra-tropical transition (Landsea et al. 2013, National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division Re-Analysis Project)
Speed at landfall: 47 mph (Landsea et al. 2013, National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division Re-Analysis Project)
Peak Storm Surge: 17 ft. above normal high tide (Rhode Island)
Peak Wave Height: 50 ft.
Deaths: 700
Homeless: Approx. 63,000
Homes/Buildings Destroyed: Approx. 8,900
Trees Destroyed: Approx. 2 Billion
Boats Lost or Destroyed: Approx. 3,300