Columbus Center: RIP | Back Bay

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You could justify any project that way if you count jobs created during construction. But how can there possibly be any 'motor vehicle manufacturing jobs' from a condo project once it's finished?
 
Ron Newman said:
But how can there possibly be any 'motor vehicle manufacturing jobs' from a condo project once it's finished?

Maybe cab and limo companies will buy new vehicles? A bit of a stretch...
 
Ron Newman said:
You could justify any project that way if you count jobs created during construction. But how can there possibly be any 'motor vehicle manufacturing jobs' from a condo project once it's finished?

Having done cost-benefit studies, it really depends on how desperate one is to create an acceptable ratio. I'm not saying the rationale used in this instance was parking garages for residents = higher purchase rate of automobiles, but such a calculus would not be unheard of.

The National Park Service has done studies that indicate that visitors to a dozen sites on the North Shore (3/4 of them in Salem) are responsible for the creation of 4,500 or so jobs in the communities.
 
Wow ... I neglect the board for a couple of weeks and look what happens!

While I'm glad to see some good debate on the board, and I welcome Ned's contribution to that, I do think that Ned's series of posts reflect pretty well the exasperatingly inflexible position of the NIMBY opposition to this project during the agonizingly long public process (which, incidentally, certainly was not the process the developer wanted!)

In addition to instances of opinion voiced as fact, Ned is also guilty of at least one instance of complete fabrication voiced as fact, to wit:

****

Q-25. Does the 7-acre tunnel / deck / basement cost more than land-based construction?
A-25. No. Three separate, professional organizations estimated the tunnel / deck / basement cost:

? $31 million per Hanscomb cost estimators (4 April 2002)
? $12 million per Columbus Center?s new owners (22 February 2006)
? $37 million per Lincoln Property fair-market-value appraisers (6 March 2006)

With a tunnel / deck / basement cost of $1.7 ? $5.3 million per acre, air rights construction appears equal to or less than land-based construction, including the average costs and/or savings from demolition, excavation, contamination, groundwater remediation, labor, and materials.

Q-26. Is there a ?deck cost premium??
A-26. No. The Master Plan does allow excess density as a way to pay for only those tunnel / deck / basement costs that exceed the equivalent land-based costs; however, no such premium was ever proved. With air rights construction costing equal to or less than land-based construction, there is no ?deck cost premium? that could justify excess density.

***

This is utter rubbish, and this unwillingness to face facts allows the NIMBY crowd to duck the question of difficult trade-offs, as Ned has done again above. (It all costs the same, so we let's pretend we can cost effectively build a 3 story building over the Pike!)

I'll assert as fact: building over a highway costs a helluva lot more than building on a typical ground site, and citing outdated, erroneous, and laughably imprecise apples-and-oranges "estimates" of build costs doesn't do anything to change that fact. It ought to be bloody obvious to everyone that if building over an interstate wasn't damned expensive, then highways at or below grade would be built over in every high-value urban environment. Certainly the entire length of the FDR Drive would already be covered. But if anecdotal evidence won't suffice, I'll invite Ned to find any reputable Civil Engineer to agree with his statement above. (Note, this is not the same as taking a 2002 cost estimate from one source and comparing it to a 2007 cost estimate from another source). Indeed, to make it apples-to-apples, let's make this an open invitation to any reputable civil engineer who is willing to say that the PSF cost of a building Columbus Center, absent some sort of subsidy, is less than or equal to the PSF cost to build the Clarendon, one block away.

As for CC itself, it seems to be dead. The reason it is dead is that despite support from the Mayor and lukewarm support or indifference from the majority of neighbors (immediate abutters excepted) and despite some amount of favoritism in the process and some (to date rather minor) subsidies the damned thing still can't be built profitably. Put a fork in it. Ned, you can relax, the trench is safe, and so are the views across it.

As for the "windfall" for the developer that you and others complained about during those agonizing meetings several years back, well, where is it? If the deal was such a massive, crooked hand-out, why wasn't the opportunity seized when the approvals were all in hand and the market was as hot as it's ever been?

It's OK to favor the trench to CC. I disagree, but I understand. I just challenge you to be honest about it.
 
InTheHood said:
Wow ... I neglect the board for a couple of weeks and look what happens!

While I'm glad to see some good debate on the board, and I welcome Ned's contribution to that, I do think that Ned's series of posts reflect pretty well the exasperatingly inflexible position of the NIMBY opposition to this project during the agonizingly long public process (which, incidentally, certainly was not the process the developer wanted!)

In addition to instances of opinion voiced as fact, Ned is also guilty of at least one instance of complete fabrication voiced as fact, to wit:

****

Q-25. Does the 7-acre tunnel / deck / basement cost more than land-based construction?
A-25. No. Three separate, professional organizations estimated the tunnel / deck / basement cost:

? $31 million per Hanscomb cost estimators (4 April 2002)
? $12 million per Columbus Center?s new owners (22 February 2006)
? $37 million per Lincoln Property fair-market-value appraisers (6 March 2006)

With a tunnel / deck / basement cost of $1.7 ? $5.3 million per acre, air rights construction appears equal to or less than land-based construction, including the average costs and/or savings from demolition, excavation, contamination, groundwater remediation, labor, and materials.

Q-26. Is there a ?deck cost premium??
A-26. No. The Master Plan does allow excess density as a way to pay for only those tunnel / deck / basement costs that exceed the equivalent land-based costs; however, no such premium was ever proved. With air rights construction costing equal to or less than land-based construction, there is no ?deck cost premium? that could justify excess density.

***

This is utter rubbish, and this unwillingness to face facts allows the NIMBY crowd to duck the question of difficult trade-offs, as Ned has done again above. (It all costs the same, so we let's pretend we can cost effectively build a 3 story building over the Pike!)

I'll assert as fact: building over a highway costs a helluva lot more than building on a typical ground site, and citing outdated, erroneous, and laughably imprecise apples-and-oranges "estimates" of build costs doesn't do anything to change that fact. It ought to be bloody obvious to everyone that if building over an interstate wasn't damned expensive, then highways at or below grade would be built over in every high-value urban environment. Certainly the entire length of the FDR Drive would already be covered. But if anecdotal evidence won't suffice, I'll invite Ned to find any reputable Civil Engineer to agree with his statement above. (Note, this is not the same as taking a 2002 cost estimate from one source and comparing it to a 2007 cost estimate from another source). Indeed, to make it apples-to-apples, let's make this an open invitation to any reputable civil engineer who is willing to say that the PSF cost of a building Columbus Center, absent some sort of subsidy, is less than or equal to the PSF cost to build the Clarendon, one block away.

As for CC itself, it seems to be dead. The reason it is dead is that despite support from the Mayor and lukewarm support or indifference from the majority of neighbors (immediate abutters excepted) and despite some amount of favoritism in the process and some (to date rather minor) subsidies the damned thing still can't be built profitably. Put a fork in it. Ned, you can relax, the trench is safe, and so are the views across it.

As for the "windfall" for the developer that you and others complained about during those agonizing meetings several years back, well, where is it? If the deal was such a massive, crooked hand-out, why wasn't the opportunity seized when the approvals were all in hand and the market was as hot as it's ever been?

It's OK to favor the trench to CC. I disagree, but I understand. I just challenge you to be honest about it.

That deserves an answer. Ned?
 
Economics as the dismal science

These idiotic attempts to apply global multipliers to local data are one of the prime reasons that economics is charitably called the dismal science

In reality -- there is no science there at all

While on a large scale GDP, Regional DP perhaps even StateDP the concept of multipliers is probably somewhat valid

In a the case of a relatively small project involving relatively small amounts of the economy the concept of the multiplier is a stretch

Certainly there will be impacts beyond the immediate direct jobs created in construction and then the retail and other on-site jobs

However, beyond a few extra newspapers delivered to the site that might lead to the newspaper company ordering a new truck from someone at a local automobile / truck sales agency the rest is just as likely to happen in Texas or even Taiwan as in Massachusetts

Even the commonly quoted impact of the Hanscom Air Force Base on the local economy overstates the true effects. For instance while a contract might be let to a local firm such as Raytheon {Based in Waltham} and even to a local segment of Raytheon such as Integrated Defense Systems [based in Tewksbury} the work might be done in a Raytheon facility in Texas or California or subcontracted to a firm in Georgia

Thus the estimate of jobs that are related to Hanscom is inflated and then cast in the economic impact concrete and can't even be challenged

Similarly, the real impact of CC is the jobs created at the site during construction, at the site after the facility is operational and some practically unquantifiable dedicated off-site service functions.

Stick with the hard numbers.

Westy
 
Re: Economics as the dismal science

whighlander said:
These idiotic attempts to apply global multipliers to local data are one of the prime reasons that economics is charitably called the dismal science

In reality -- there is no science there at all

You over-sell the point. Unless you happen to be a card carrying economist?

whighlander said:
While on a large scale GDP, Regional DP perhaps even StateDP the concept of multipliers is probably somewhat valid

In a the case of a relatively small project involving relatively small amounts of the economy the concept of the multiplier is a stretch

depends on how it is used. i'm sure you don't think that because evaluating the economic impact of an individual living and working in boston is a hard problem that means there is no impact.



whighlander said:
However, beyond a few extra newspapers delivered to the site that might lead to the newspaper company ordering a new truck from someone at a local automobile / truck sales agency the rest is just as likely to happen in Texas or even Taiwan as in Massachusetts

aggressive simplification doesn't obivate the need to verify the facts, if you care about the validity of your statements--and in the case of an economic impact analysis there is no value if you gloss over everything that the everyman wouldn't call self-evident.

the truck dealership has N customers per year.

you add one customer, you validate 1/Nth the investment in the business

the business is housed on a lot owned by a combination of a financial institution and a real estate investment group.

return on the real estate and the loan are fractional parts of those businesses with fractional impact on their investment.

both businesses are software services intensive, and source most of their technology integration and support from local industry fractionally justifying the creation of mom-and-pop technology services firms.

due to macro economic pressures, local competition, labor trends, etc. several of the SMB tech services firms fractionally supported invest in Linux skills and SUSE software, which are provided by Novell.

Novell is a MA company that attracts sales and investment from across the US and beyond. including, fractionally, from the value chain of the trucks sale.

Value-added is a tough nut. but, interestingly, it's not a myth.


whighlander said:
Similarly, the real impact of CC is the jobs created at the site during construction, at the site after the facility is operational and some practically unquantifiable dedicated off-site service functions.

prove it.
 
Multipliers are More a myth thaan ever

Back when Henry Ford took in iron ore, sand and raw rubber at one end of River Rouge and Fords rolled out the other -- you could associate economic activity in a company with a location.

Today even if you know the name -- you've no clue as where the activity occurs

Consider the Intel Pentium IV processor that is powering the computer that I'm currently using

It was made where?

It says Malaysia on the plastic package -- however I know that Penang Malaysia was only the last stop in its manufacturing process {putting the silicon die inside the plastic package}

In this particular case the Intel Fab that did most of the work was located down the street in Hudson, MA

The designers of the chip however were located somewhere else {possibly Israel or California} and the creators of the manufacturing process were located in Oregon

So is this computer powered by Massachusetts, Oregon, Malaysia or a California microprocessor

even if you can decide as to where to associate the majority of the effort {probably in this case Hudson Massachusetts}, the tools to fabricate and test the silicon were made in other places including the Netherlands, Japan, France, Gloucester MA, California and other important materials used in the fabrication such as the nasty gases and the raw silicon wafers came from yet other places

So if I bought a Dell Computer as I did a couple of years ago -- where did the economic activity occur and what state befitted the most

And that's an easy one since there are probably less than 100 key suppliers involved

Stick to the hard numbers

Westy :roll:
 
Dude, Van, lay off on the moving of posts. The ones you just moved out of here related directly to Columbus Center, and at the very least did not detract from this thread one bit.

So you move this stuff, and yet you can't move the roughly 24 posts in the "Prudential Center/Exeter St" thread that have everything to do with the Copley Place tower and nothing to do with the Pru proposal. Both Mike and I asked you, directly or otherwise, to move the posts to the proper existing thread, and yet they are still there. It's the letting of this kind of true substance end up in the wrong place that will hurt the board in the long run, not what you did here.

So did this just slip by you TWICE, or are your priorities messed up? Your actions say (and have said for a while) that it's the latter.
 
Whoa, calm down kz. "Hurt the board in the long run?" How would the manner of division of posts (which is always rather arbitrary) really achieve that?
 
I'm calm, but I've been meaning to say this for a while.

By "hurt the board in the long run" I mean that if anybody ever wanted to review the discussion concerning the Copley Place tower, not all the info would be there.. instead it's fractured around the board. Considering this place aspires to be the definitive source for information on architecture/developments ect, having the info scattered around can only hurt the board. And I don't think that arbitrariness has to exist, especially in this case.

Taking care of the content should be job #1 for a moderator, not worrying over whether a conversation has strayed the slightest bit off-topic.
 
kz1000ps said:
I'm calm, but I've been meaning to say this for a while.

By "hurt the board in the long run" I mean that if anybody ever wanted to review the discussion concerning the Copley Place tower, not all the info would be there.. instead it's fractured around the board. Considering this place aspires to be the definitive source for information on architecture/developments ect, having the info scattered around can only hurt the board. And I don't think that arbitrariness has to exist, especially in this case.

Taking care of the content should be job #1 for a moderator, not worrying over whether a conversation has strayed the slightest bit off-topic.

while we're talking about this, Van, a request: please make an economics area/forum (assuming you can do that). As I've said, economics isn't politics, and it is something we get into on a very regular basis since development takes place in an economic context. people are interested in the topic and it needs a home.

as it is now, since I'm a geek for econ i feel like i'm distracting folks from the larger point of the threads that stray into economics -- but when you move the posts i know they may get swept into a dark corner with all kinds of other random stuff.

my 2 cents.
 
singbat said:
when you move the posts i know they may get swept into a dark corner with all kinds of other random stuff.

That's another point of contention for me. A lot of the time when posts get moved to their own thread, it effectively kills the conversation at hand, regardless of whether it's mindless drivel or insightful commentary. That obviously isn't Van's intention, but it's definitely an unfortunate side effect.

And I'm all for an economics related sub-forum.
 
I can't create a subforum. All I can do is split posts in the New Development forum; you people think I have way more power than I actually do.

I'm sorry if by moving this conversation I offended anyone. I only move them out in the open so more people can see them but, as you say, it seems to kill them. I'll lay off unless they are really long or really inappropriate. I would love to see an Econ forum but briv seems to have been very busy and all I can do is ask (which I have).

kz: I didn't split the other posts because I cannot merge posts. I didn't what two threads out there with different information.
 
Ah ok Van, I misunderstood what you can and can't do.. sorry.
 
Park

Hmm. I tried to find a thread on this, but maybe there never was one?

park.jpg


I noticed that work was being done on the park next to the old Hard Rock Cafe building. I don't think anyone has been in there, for months.

Some article a week or two ago said that Columbus Center was going to "start" on October 1. Is this the first step, or is that just wishful thinking?

(This lot, of course, is not part of the Columbus Center project, but next to it. It will someday be a park.)
 
It will eventually be a park, but until then this is serving as a staging ground for Columbus Center. That little CMU building will be the temporary electrical vault once construction kicks up.

Hopefully the activity in the above photo is a sign of things to come.
 
I went by there today after checking out the progress on the Clarendon bldg. There were a half dozen or so guys doing some work, so I asked one of them if they were working on a park or a building and he said they were working on some sort of building/hotel. I thought this project was dead.
 
Amazing! It seemed the state help jump-started this project and we'll finally get an amazing project mending two neighborhoods in the heart of Boston. Though I think its a 10% chance its a false start, however this seems like the real start for sure.
 
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