Well, I think the point of no return on what's
physically possible is that we've already violated many times over every "first-world" transpo blogger's golden rule that airport spurs as a whole are a shitty value that almost never do what they're supposed to despite the superficial allure that tickles the politicians who over-value them. It works when the airport is near enough to a mainline for an on-mainline intermediate stop where the mainline continues on spanning typical mainline-ish destinations. The Blue Line is an example of an acceptable one; Logan's just a stopover between the heart of Eastie and Revere, and the shuttle bus is fast/straightforward enough to cover the last mile. The SL1 and Urban Ring fingers reaching around from both sides to Logan is another. It gets stinky when you start talking stuff like "let's do a short-turning Blue branch around the terminals"...that's a classic trap. It gets even worse when it's mainline rail and not rapid transit, or some mongrel half-and-half like eBART. Worse still as a deviation/spur off of mainline rail...those "let's do a cross-Harbor tunnel forking off the N-S Link" Crazy Pitches are doubleplusbad valuations. Worse still as a mainline rail dinky requiring a transfer then a trip on slow track.
With the Worcester Line a +1'ing of normally Worcester-terminating trains comes with still penalties of the amount of time the mountain-topper run adds to the schedule and how much more cumbersome it makes turning trains. That lowers the ceiling somewhat on headway growth when the slow trip up the spur becomes the limiting factor for everything South Station to Worcester Union. The off-main deviation limits it further, in that if you had any notions of a few of those newfangled Worcester nonstop super-expresses being extended to Springfield on conventional commuter rail equipment in a future 90 MPH end-to-end era where it can plausibly make that trip in 1:30...the airport spur vultures too many off-main slots to plausibly make that a reality. And it's a flat-out terrible application for DMU shuttles because the city bus will beat the slow track every single time, leaving those dinkies empty nearly all the time. Those are loss-leader applications of a DMU that always seem like a good idea on a map, but end up lead weights on a farebox recovery ledger.
There's all that...and then there's the rest of the regional airport rail universe.
- Bradley Airport is getting a new Windsor Locks station closer to downtown when next Springfield Line funding shot starts covering the north-of-Hartford infrastructure. They're planning a real station facility with waiting room, airport-catered info kiosks and (if demand merits) perhaps some onsite Bradley customer service staff. And it'll be configured with shuttle bus storage for the luggage rack-equipped shuttle buses Bradley is going to run coordinated with every train schedule. While ConnDOT has studied a Bradley Branch dinky to the terminal, they'll never find reason to do it when the mainline stop at halfway point between Hartford and Springfield serves every need and the shuttle buses can make door-to-door in 7 minutes. Get the Inland Service fully scaled up without trimming or deferring too many B&A speed upgrades, and 90 MPH track probably makes that a 2:00 trip from Boston.
Take into account that Bradley doesn't require nearly the extreme (and lengthening) check-in + security times of a trip to Logan, the across-the-board cheaper fares, and the lower-stress ordeal of getting to a less-crowded airport...then that's within the margin of error where the savings more than make up for the slightly longer lead time. Do you need a Worcester when someone from Worcester can do Bradley in an hour off an Inland and outright beat the pain and frustration of what hell Logan's going to be in 2020 or '25? Especially when the "International" gets put back in Bradley's name with a selection of discount overseas routes starting very soon.
- Then...Manchester. If NH's dysfunctional state gov't can ever get their act together on the Capitol Corridor, North Station to Manchester and that curbside shuttle bus pickup takes 1:10 or 1:15 on one of the NHDOT-subsidized Lowell Line trains that'll be running super-express in MA (Anderson + Lowell + the local stops across the state line). Upgrade the most sluggish segment of the Lowell Line--the Downeaster-shared portion out to Wilmington--to 90 MPH and one of the expresses may clock in at an even hour. Almost a match for what Logan will be after another decade of ballooning check-in lead time.
- Then...T.F. Green. Once RIDOT gets intrastate commuter rail up and running the Providence Line can pull back from the nether regions of Wickford & Kingston and probably draw the line at Green, running its full schedule out there. Throw in electric vehicles to knock travel time down under 1:15 and keep ratcheting up the baseline Providence headways and that's now also in Logan's range when the check-in bloat is stripped out. And a NE Regional platform there served by a limited number of Amtraks is a near fait-accompli to be a real thing in 5 years.
Worcester access?...RIDOT's already committed to studying full Providence-Worcester commuter rail in its recently revised State Rail Plan filed with the federal gov't. The study is next step after construction gets funded/scheduled on Providence-Woonsocket CR in approx. 7 years.
I don't see where the need is going to be for another big MA passenger airport when 3 full-service Logan alternatives are all going to have robust rail service--2 of them direct from Worcester--that clocks in at 2 hours or less. All of them non-speculative builds that should all be open and fully-formed within 5 to 15 years...right when Logan starts getting intolerably congested. Plus Portland backstopping them all as last resort (via a hopefully ever- speed-increasing Downeaster) during weather FUBARs where all the Southern New England airports are knocked out of commission and above the snow-ice line or below the rain-ice line become the only options for getting a flight in/out
now. Worcester, Hanscom, a second inside-128 airport...I think they all become unnecessary if public transit to all the pre-existing satellites with room left to grow can feasibly maneuver total travel time into the Logan check-in time margin of error with the lower fares and lower hassle making up the rest of the difference.
Lastly, Worcester Regional's location has other downsides. Way up high on that plateau it becomes the first airport in New England to fog over. They lose early morning slots several times a month because of the pea soup that parks itself on top of that plateau in the pre-dawn and doesn't move until the sun is sufficiently high. Ditto when a cool/clammy weather system is dumping gloomy rain on Eastern MA. It doesn't hurt them because their schedules aren't dense enough, but regular sunrise flights are almost futile to try there. It's also the first to ice over in a cold front when freezing temps are aloft (though conversely it's also the first to heat up in a warm front where it's icy on the ground but warm air is aloft...albeit at downside of more fog). Meh...you can't exactly find a lot of flat low-elevation land big enough in Central MA to put a full-size airport that can handle jets. The plateau is by far the best it gets...but it comes with many strings attached.
I think Worcester's got growth in it for cargo. All the flourishing freight rail intermodal right down the street at CSX and P&W and all the MassDOT dealmaking therein has hugely increased the local presence of trucking companies who are setting up shop within a day shift's distance of those huge freight yards by Worcester Union and up north on I-190 in Fitchburg and Ayer. Where most trans-New England trucking used to originate in Albany it's now relocating to Greater Worcester HQ as shipping hub of New England. That
massively lowers the cost of truck transloading by virtue of those trucks originating purely local with purely local drivers, enough so that air freight @ Worcester Regional can schlep off the rail transload profit centers downtown and get way better trucking rates than they were ever able to before. Enough so to make sustainable increases in air freight a viable--if modest--growth strategy instead of just some lowish-margin niche. All that's missing is the local Amazon warehouse or anchor customer of that ilk that does large quantity of package freight.
Bank on that and an extremely judicious selection of a few of those "homeless man's" discount passenger routes and it's got its place at the table as a regional transportation asset. Just resist the urge to mistake it for Bradley, Green, Manchester, and their 'first-worlder's golden rule' obeying mainline rail access. It's not in that category at all, never will be, and really isn't begging for any troubleshooting to force-fit it into the same role as the others.
