Re: Green Line Reconfiguration
All at once? Can you speculate on an EIS + construction schedule for an all-at-once job on that many hundreds of miles of track?
The construction schedule is "as soon as money becomes available," same as for every other project. When there's money, it's possible to accelerate the construction schedule, and this includes even extremely expensive projects like ARC and ESA. The EIS schedule is also not relevant. There's an EIS for the entire Second Avenue Subway; the limiting factor there is not latency, but the budget.
There are no recent examples of large-scale electrification because the US doesn't electrify and the rest of the first world has already done its major electrification projects, so there's no perfect comparison for latency. But in the past, the PRR electrified its Philadelphia-area commuter lines and then its half of the NEC at a decent pace. Outside the US, there are examples of electrification of lines connected to new high-speed rail (as well as new HSR lines themselves). The latency is a few years, maximum, same as with a decent-size subway or light rail project.
Why Franklin? Worcester, if they follow through on that Indigo Plan, would have 9 stops inside Route 128: Back Bay, Yawkey, West/Allston, New Balance/Brighton, Newton Corner, Newtonville, West Newton, Auburndale, Riverside. Then the 6 more out to Framingham. Then the 5 more out to Worcester. 20 stops in 44 miles doesn't meet the threshold but 14 in 30 miles (most of the time...sometimes it's 13 when Ruggles is a skip) is?
Franklin has more ridership per unit of length than Worcester does, especially considering that the length should properly be measured starting at Readville.
The situation changes somewhat if Worcester opens infill stations, but do not expect those to get significant ridership without the modernization that I'm proposing that you're poo-poohing. A good indication of how uninterested riders are in traditional US commuter rail: the commuter rail ridership in Far Rockaway and Wakefield in New York, and shared subway-CR stations like Braintree in Boston, is close to zero. The entire Harlem Line has close to zero inbound boardings despite being in a relatively transit-deprived area. Without basic organizational fixes like high all-day frequency and mode-neutral fares, there's no hope of getting significant ridership out of these stations. Electrification would help, but I'd rather have 15-minute craptastic Colorado Railcars with mode-neutral fares than premium-fare hourly EMUs like the ones the LIRR runs.
Franklin, though, has a lot of closely-spaced stations located just outside Route 128, where people ride unmodernized commuter rail since they have no better alternatives. It's similar to the inner Harlem Line between Mount Vernon and White Plains that way, or the South Side LIRR.
The second point, about this being Massachusetts. How does one take the Massachusetts out of Massachusetts and make things so? I know you love these borderless comparisons, but all politics is local and that's the anvil we have to drag around. Now, somebody in these first-world countries who do the things you say we should do clearly conditioned the behavior of their local politicians well and probably put in their hard time dragging an anvil around to make it so. It didn't happen overnight. So short of replacing the Legislature with Folgers Crystals and seeing if anyone notices the difference (they would...the Legislature's popularity would be at all-time highs), there is a time component involved to torturing them to join the 21st century. Importing replacement Legislators from overseas is not an option.
(...)
And back to that coalition-of-the-willing thing. . .
So isn't a more productive use of our time ID'ing who makes up that coalition of the willing, and building that coalition. This is what I meant by an American rail system. It's not an American Exceptionalism rail system. It's not the "We're America...our shit smells like unicorn farts" rail system. It's the "like it or not, the Americans are gonna have to do this themselves" rail system, and finishing school abroad isn't going to be automatic enough or available enough for nearly enough for that to be the only answer.
What you're missing is that every country that modernizes does so with local politicians. In the US, the main sell is costs and benefits. Massachusetts can throw about $6 billion on commuter rail modernization - full electrification, new rolling stock, and NSRL - and get very large reductions in commuter rail travel time as well as direct service from the North Side lines to the CBD and Back Bay.
It's especially useful because of the benefits to suburbanites. In New York State, the problem is that the suburbanites don't really need modernization, because they already have their peak-hour one-seat rides to Midtown, and the few who don't will get them after ESA opens. Modernization might actually hurt them: it means ending the LIRR Main Line's one-way peak service, which means ending peak express service until there's a third track; it means more local and fewer express runs; it means not being guaranteed a seat on outbound peak trains until all the city residents get off in Queens (on inbound peak trains Long Islanders would still get seats). As a result, middle-class Long Islanders and the Republican legislators they elect are hardline opponents of any modernization.
In Boston, the situation is completely different. The North Side gets no service to either the CBD or Back Bay. The rolling stock is so poor that even with infill stops and the elimination of express runs, travel times would go down substantially. There's not enough travel demand from places like Forest Hills and Chelsea to force suburban commuters to stand on outbound peak trips. For communities right next to lines, train noise would go down substantially, and diesel emissions would disappear, and for commuters heading toward Back Bay, the diesel emissions would go away.
The only inconvenience to suburban peak commuters: some park-and-rides would have to be zapped and replaced by stations in built-up areas. The only really critical one is Kingston, which really needs to go, with trains rerouted to Plymouth and extended south to the town's historic center. Elsewhere, such replacements are useful but not critical - how many people are going to reverse-commute to Westborough even if the station is moved to the town center? This contrasts with Long Island, where the second busiest station, Hicksville, needs to have most of its parking lots developed and replaced by buildings and streets with sidewalks. Kingston isn't Hicksville.
So there's your coalition of the willing. For this coalition, modern planning, with the infrastructure-timetable-rolling stock magic triangle, is a benefit and not a drag. You tell people "we'll electrify commuter rail," and they'll shrug. You show them a schedule in which trains do Lowell-North Station in 26 minutes flat and come every half an hour all day, or (with the NSRL) Lowell-South Station in 30 minutes, and they'll suddenly get interested. The reason Switzerland plans things the way it does is precisely the coalition of the willing concept: every big spending project has to be approved by referendum, so the planners make sure to design projects that the voters will agree to tax themselves for. Democracy works, when it's tried.
Also...the FRA is changing? They've been asked politely and not-so-politely to do a whole lot of things by a whole lot of people for a whole lot of years. Let's see these new regs first before grading them on how much the times are a-changin'.
Yes, and in 2012 they announced that they'd come up with changes to allow lighter trains. The flip side of continuing with the beatings until morale improves is that when morale actually shows signs of improvement, the beatings must stop.
I wouldn't doubt that. You do realize we had 3 consecutive Speakers of the House leave office in a perp walk and have easy 60/40 odds of that streak going to four before the next statewide election? Corrupt as fuck. Still firmly ensconsed in New York/New Jersey's shadow, but...yeesh.
Hey, in New York it's just the one! The real winners are in Illinois, where it's several governors.
But that aside, even in relatively corrupt countries, infrastructure doesn't always suck. Italy, where prime ministers go to jail (or at least would if they weren't exempt for being too old), has low subway construction costs in Milan and Naples. Even Rome, where the archeological findings have led to delays and cost escalations, Line C looks to be $170 million/km.
Now...if the carrier that buys them also doesn't run on cabs...they can keep the exemption for all perpetuity and Massachusetts can't do a thing about it. Root for P&W. They won't be the only one in the mix; someone can always swoop in out of left field and blow everyone away. But they'll be in the mix...and they're good, efficient, and very reasonable to deal with.
At least in the western half of the US, Class IIs are actually easier to deal with than BNSF and UP. Rearranging lines to be passenger-primary is easier when there's little freight, and usually the smaller players can't bully the states into buying their lines at inflated prices, the way CSX bullied Massachusetts with the Worcester Line and New York (or was it Amtrak?) with Empire South. The amounts of money relevant to various intercity rail restoration projects make small freight operators go "yippie!" and Class Is go all extortionary.
Eastern has 2 dailies to Everett Terminal, one by CSX and one by Pan Am (strange historical quirk...they both have rights). Mission-critical, but that peels out right on the other side of the bridge so the overlap is minimal. Salem and Peabody get a tiny local job once or twice a week...midday. It's stable biz, but it's a near-invisible zit re: schedule impact. And the East Boston Branch (junctions in Revere near MA Route 145) is a presently out-of-service stub that serves a big gas tanker terminal near Logan. Almost had a 60-car nightly ethanol start up a couple years ago until community opposition for the terminal's (not the RR's) site mods nixed it. They're holding it because that's not the only potential matchup, but in any permutation: overnight job.
Yeah, so it seems pretty trivial to buy people out (or put in-cab signaling on their locos), especially since Pan Am isn't long for this world. If it's two daily freight trains, with no plans for increasing traffic, I'm tempted to say they should just kick the freight out, which would reduce maintenance costs (freight locos weigh 33 t/axle, FRA-compliant EMUs weigh 17, vanilla noncompliant EMUs weigh like 12) and make it easier to properly cant the track on various curves. I wish people involved in Triboro RX activism in New York understood this - there the traffic is 3 trains per day if I remember correctly, and yet people propose flights of fancy like widening the ROW where it is narrow rather than just kicking those 3 trains out.
This, by the way, contrasts with local service in the Providence area: the P&W runs 8 daily freight trains per direction and plans to increase this to 16.
There you go: EU regulations. Since when do EU regulations apply to the United States, Alon?
They don't. But they don't apply to South Korea, Russia, or South Africa. They also only partially apply to Switzerland and Norway. And yet, Russia harmonizes its mainline rail practices along EU/UIC lines, with modifications for track and loading gauge: for example, it builds railway platforms of the same height as most of Europe. South Korea, South Africa, and other non-European countries building new signal systems for their trains use ETCS, while China uses a clone called CTCS, with E for European replaced with C for Chinese. China's as chauvinistic and insular as the US, but it's more pragmatic that way. Only Japan keeps developing a different set of systems, and it gets away with that only because it has a vast internal market, outputting thousands of EMU cars per year.
Van...and a whole bunch of other people...are having a fun time with this right now. I wouldn't sweat it.
You know this forum better than me
.